US Open Day 5 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 4th)

Aside from Day 1 this has been a pretty poor tournament for the Tennis Picks, but the worst day by a considerable margin was Day 4.

At times I can look at the misfortune of selections down the stretch, but it would be foolish to ignore some of the poorer choices made and together that does add up to a negative position.

However, there have only been four days placed in the books and this is a long tournament which means there is still ample time to turn things around. And at least the four Outright Picks have continued to make their way through the draws which have featured a few upsets already and perhaps opened things up a little more.


All of that is a positive for now, but I do want to begin to earn some better results from the daily selections and that has to begin on Friday when Day 5 and the Third Round of the US Open gets underway. The heat is really picking up in New York City for the next few days which should mean the Singles draws are all back on schedule by the time the rain returns in the middle of next week when the two roofed courts will be used fully.

By that point I want this tournament to be in a much stronger position than I currently find it.


Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: For the third time in four matches Novak Djokovic has dropped the first set in New York City, although the World Number 1 has to feel the best of five setting makes it even more likely that he can recover from any poor start to a match. He won two best of three matches in the 'Cincinnati Masters' event played inside the New York City bubble having dropped the first set and needed four sets to see off Kyle Edmund.

In all honesty Novak Djokovic was comfortably the dominant player in the match before dropping the first set in the tie-breaker and by the end he was running away with things. He remains unbeaten in 2020 having moved to 25-0 for the season and Novak Djokovic is still producing the best tennis on the surface which makes him the strong favourite to go on and win an 18th Grand Slam title.

There have been some difficult moments for Djokovic inside the bubble, but a player with his returning ability is always going to feel he can win matches over the best of five setting. The lack of fans might be taking away some of the intensity within matches, but the World Number 1 is finding the motivation he needs and he will feel comfortable with the Third Round match in front of him.

Novak Djokovic may be the first to admit his serve has perhaps not been as effective as it was in 2019 on the hard courts, but he remains a tough player to break. That has been the case in this tournament through the first two Rounds and the Djokovic return remains a potent part of his tennis.

His opponent Jan-Lennard Struff has been playing well on the hard courts over the last twelve months and the German has been a dominant winner in each of his first two matches in the draw so far. However he will be the first to point out the level that he is going to need to raise to in order to beat the World Number 1 and recent history suggests it is going to be a big ask for Struff.

Over the last twelve months Jan-Lennard Struff might have held 84% of the service games played on the hard courts and broken in 20%, but during that time he has taken two losses to Novak Djokovic. A four set defeat at the Australian Open was followed by winning just four games in a defeat on these grounds last week and Novak Djokovic will very much believe he has the edge in the match.

In their three previous matches on the hard courts, Novak Djokovic has broken in 44% of return games played against Jan-Lennard Struff. The latter has had some success on the return himself, but not nearly to the same extent as Novak Djokovic who has won four of the six sets played against Jan-Lennard Struff by 6-2, 6-1, 6-3 and 6-1 scores.

I do think he will put enough pressure on Jan-Lennard Struff to force the breaks again and that should give Novak Djokovic the chance to cover this mark. The Serb can earn yet another spot in the second week at the US Open and produce a performance that will remind the rest of the field that Djokovic remains the man to beat.


Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 sets v Taylor Fritz: Two young players from North America would have loved to be playing this Third Round match in front of a vocal crowd, but both Denis Shapovalov and Taylor Fritz should still have no trouble in motivating themselves. Both are expected to have very bright futures in the sport and some will have tipped them up to be future Grand Slam Champions, but between the two of them only Denis Shapovalov has reached the second week of a Slam so far in their careers.

That came in his first appearance at the US Open in 2017 and the Canadian has managed to reach the Third Round in every appearance here. Taylor Fritz has only dropped a single set in his first two matches at the US Open in 2020 and that has seen the American match his best previous effort here.

On the other side Denis Shapovalov has dropped at least one set in each of his first two matches here, but he will have the mental edge in this match having beaten Taylor Fritz in their previous two professional matches. Both of those wins have come on the hard courts and Shapovalov has edged Fritz each time while holding 95% of service games played against this opponent compared with the 81% mark held by Taylor Fritz.

The serve has remained pretty strong for Shapovalov, but he has really not been returning as well as he would have liked and that has to be a concern for him in a match like this one. While he is facing a limited returner in Fritz, Denis Shapovalov will know matches are very difficult to win when you are not getting enough out of the return of serve.

He has been returning well through the first two Rounds, but this is a much better server in front of Denis Shapovalov. The Canadian did play well in his two matches here last week too though and I think his mental edge over Taylor Fritz will come into play as long as Denis Shapovalov continues to serve as well as he has so far this week.

As well as Taylor Fritz has played at times in 2020, he still has struggled when facing the better players on the Tour on the hard courts. The two wins over the past few days will give Fritz confidence, but he has struggled with his return against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts over a twelve month period and now he has to try and deal with a serve he has struggled with in the previous two matches against Shapovalov.

It might be hard for the Canadian to continue his full dominance of Taylor Fritz, but Denis Shapovalov should be able to put together the tennis needed to win the big points and I think he can be backed to win this one in three or four sets.


Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: There have been some questions about Alexander Zverev about whether he is ready to take the next step in his career and become a Grand Slam Champion. He has long moved onto the step of being a Masters Champion, but over the last couple of years it has felt the career has stalled a little bit and Zverev still has some room for improvement.

One of those areas that need to be better is the second serve while there can also be a vulnerability about the German when it comes to the mental strength. However he has been playing well so far at the US Open by beating opponents Alexander Zverev would expect himself to beat and he will be looking to reach the second week here.

He did that last year and Alexander Zverev had his best ever Grand Slam performance when reaching the Australian Open Semi Final back in January. Dropping a set in each of the first two matches might be a slight concern, but I think the long lay off during the Tour suspension means it should not be a major problem for Alexander Zverev to deal with.

On Friday the German takes on a veteran left-hander in Adrian Mannarino who has perhaps seen a decline in his levels on the main ATP Tour. Even then, Mannarino has won a title on the Challenger circuit on the hard courts which has to be respected, while he has dropped a single set on his way to the Third Round at the US Open.

The serve from any lefty can be awkward to deal with, but Adrian Mannarino's numbers have slipped a little bit in 2020 and he has regularly been someone who has failed to reach 80% hold percentage on the hard courts. There is enough out of the Frenchman's game which makes him competitive as he returns pretty effectively, but his previous matches against Alexander Zverev have been tough for Mannarino who has broken in under 11% of return games.

It puts pressure on the Adrian Mannarino serve and Alexander Zverev has broken in 40% of return games against this opponent. In each of the last three seasons, Alexander Zverev has broken in at least 26% of return games played on the hard courts and he has looked pretty good so far this week.

That should be enough to break down Adrian Mannarino over the course of the match and I think the Seeded player can move into the second week for a third Grand Slam in succession. Alexander Zverev has improved his performance at the US Open in each of the last three seasons and I think he has every chance of doing that again on current form and I think he can make a statement by producing a pretty dominant win here.


Filip Krajinovic - 2.5 games v David Goffin: It is never easy trying to gain some rhythm when facing big servers like David Goffin has in the first two Rounds at the US Open, but the Belgian will be the first to tell you how much tougher this Third Round match is going to be.

Now he has to take on an opponent who has put a lot of wins on the board over the last twelve months on the hard courts, although Filip Krajinovic still has a couple of holes in his game to plug if he is going to crack the top 20 of the World Rankings. The Serb is back up at Number 26, his career best mark which was first achieved a couple of years ago, while Krajinovic has looked very good inside the New York City bubble.

Last week he reached the Quarter Final in the Masters tournament held here and was only narrowly beaten by Milos Raonic, while big wins over Dominic Thiem and Marton Fucsovics look impressive with both also making their way through the draw at the US Open. A strong return makes up for a relatively average serve and this feels like a match in which both Krajinovic and David Goffin are going to be comfortable on the return of serve.

Over the last twelve months Filip Krajinovic and David Goffin have produced very similar marks on the hard courts when it comes to the serve and return, although the former has a very slight edge on both sides of the court. You can't read too much into Goffin's return numbers in this tournament considering the two servers he has been dealing with, but his own serve has not been working as well as he would have liked against Lloyd Harris and Reilly Opelka, neither of whom are anywhere near the kind of returners that Filip Krajinovic is.

David Goffin has not had the same kind of consistent runs on the hard courts in 2020 at any point of this fractured season compared with Filip Krajinovic, while the latter also holds a mental edge.

They might be 2-2 in the head to heads, but both previous hard court matches were won by the Serb and both of those were played in 2019. Granted the last of those came in March 2019, but Filip Krajinovic broken the David Goffin serve in 42% of return games played in those two hard court encounters and that is compared to the 16% mark the Belgian had.

I would not be at all surprised if David Goffin was to win his first set on a hard court against this opponent with his ability on the return of serve, but I do like Filip Krajinovic's form and match up here. I will look for him to come through with a win and a cover in this Third Round match and he can reach the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time in his career.


Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Marta Kostyuk: Leading the tennis world with her thoughts about social injustices means there is extra attention on Naomi Osaka, but the two time former Grand Slam Champion looks to be thriving under the conditions. She was already playing well in New York heading into the US Open and Osaka has eased any concerns about her hamstring issue which caused her to pull out of the Premier Event Final before heading onto the court last weekend.

Two strong wins have been put on the board by Naomi Osaka and she is certainly going to enjoy the match up in front of her with the pace coming back suiting her natural big hitting game.

That isn't to say that Marta Kostyuk is an opponent that can be seen off easily with the talented youngster out of the Ukraine putting two strong wins on the board already. However beating Daria Kasatkina and Anastasija Sevastova is one thing and knocking off the former World Number 1 and favourite at Flushing Meadows is something else entirely.

Marta Kostyuk was an underdog in the Second Round, but deservedly won the match against a former US Open Semi Finalist. Her numbers on the hard courts have not been overwhelming over the last twelve months though and particularly not when playing in the main WTA events, while Kostyuk has rarely been able to test herself against players of this quality that she will see on Friday.

It will only be the third time she has taken on an opponent Ranked inside the top 20 and both of those came against top 10 Ranked opponents. She was blown away by Elina Svitolina at the Australian Open and I do think Marta Kostyuk is going to try and impose herself on this match which should just suit a big hitting Naomi Osaka down to the ground.

You would like to see Osaka put a little more consistency to her return game, but the pressure will be on the younger player to find enough first serves to keep her under the cosh. That is not going to be easy for Marta Kostyuk who may see a few return winners fizz by her and start upping the mental anxiety in this match that could allow Naomi Osaka to pull away as she did in impressively dismissing Camila Giorgi in the last Round.

In general those return numbers are better when facing those players lower down the World Rankings and I think Naomi Osaka will prove too strong for a player that we will see more of in the coming years.


Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: An improving American player who is getting close to cracking her peak career World Ranking is looking for a huge upset on Friday when Jessica Pegula takes on Petra Kvitova in the Night Session on Arthur Ashe Court.

The 26 year old has only once before made it past the First Round of a Grand Slam event, but she has displayed battling qualities to out-last her last two opponents in the draw and now move one win away from the second week at the US Open. Jessica Pegula has needed to spend a lot of time on the court with both previous matches going over two hours and needing three sets for her to earn the victory, while she is also involved in the Doubles draw here.

The wins will have given Pegula confidence and they come the week after reaching the Quarter Final of the Premier Event being played on these grounds. Jessica Pegula came through Qualifying to take her place in the main draw last week and upset wins over Jennifer Brady, Amanda Anisimova and Aryna Sabalenka means this is a player that can't be overlooked.

However it should also be said she has played the big points really well in those upsets and she edged to the wins thanks to the strong returning. Trying to do that against this Petra Kvitova serve is going to be a big, big challenge for Pegula and even her two wins this week have come against opponents who have earned more break points.

The Czech lefty is a very strong hard court player and she has the kind of return which thrives once the serve is working to the level it has been so far this week. Over the last twelve months Petra Kvitova has won 44% of return points played on the hard courts and she is 8-0 when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 50.

In her two matches here, Petra Kvitova has won over 70% of the points behind serve and at least 47% of the points played on the return and that underlines the hot form she is bringing into this match. I do think Jessica Pegula may hold her own for a while, but her numbers have dipped when she generally comes up against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.

If Jessica Pegula serves at her very best there is a chance for her, but ultimately I think a touch of fatigue and a very aggressive opponent will be too much. At some point I would expect Petra Kvitova to put a run of games together which will help her ease past the home hope and move into yet another second week of a Grand Slam tournament.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 21-20, - 1.76 Units (82 Units Staked, - 2.15% Yield)