NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Picks 2020 (September 1-16)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Series

The NBA bubble was always going to be a testing time for the players who are going to help their teams go deep into the PlayOffs with a long time being locked down.

Some have already admitted that they have been feeling it emotionally, while another senseless killing of an African-American by police officers who are supposed to protect us only meant the players felt they needed to make a stand against social injustices at the back end of the First Round PlayOff Series. That has heightened the emotional pressure the players are dealing with and I do feel sorry for them as they look to use their platform to make changes while also trying to focus on their jobs.

I fully stood by the players deciding to boycott some of the PlayOff games last week, but I also agree with those that have decided to play because they feel they can make a bigger social impact by keeping their presence visible for all to see. Jalen Brown, who I have a lot of respect for, is right when he made the point that it was only worth cancelling the PlayOffs if players were going to be on the frontline protesting against social injustices than simply wanting to return to their families outside of the NBA bubble.

A couple of the Conference Semi Final Series have begun, those two from the Eastern Conference, while at the time of writing the Los Angeles Lakers and the Los Angeles Clippers are still waiting to see who they are going to meet. Those two teams will be big favourites to meet in the Western Conference Finals regardless of the opponents they have to deal with in the Semi Finals, while the four teams remaining in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals will all believe they are good enough to be playing for a Championship next month.

I will update this thread with the NBA Conference Semi Final Picks.

Tuesday 1st September

Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: Things could not have gone much better for the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals as they opened up a 16 point lead at the end of the First Quarter. From there on the Celtics comfortably held off the Toronto Raptors and blew them out for a second time in the NBA bubble, although the layers refuse to accept that they may be the better team in this Series.

That means the Celtics are going into Game 2 as a small underdog like they were in Game 1, although the spread has shrunk by half a point. There is no doubt that Boston will feel pretty good about their chances having dominated the Toronto Raptors in the regular season including those two wins inside the bubble, and the Celtics have also shown off considerable depth in the rotation even without Gordon Hayward.

It is going to be some time before Hayward is able to contribute in the manner Boston will like, but he could soon re-enter the bubble to make sure he clears the quarantine period and is available to return. Even then Boston have shown off how many players they can rely upon with six scoring at least double digit points in Game 1 and the All-Stars were able to then take over.

Boston got what they wanted in Game 1 with 17 three pointers hit at 44% and they also displayed the suffocating Defense which saw off the Philadelphia 76ers in the First Round.

Those Defensive schemes meant the Toronto Raptors were held to 37% from the field and a poor 25% from three point range even with Kyle Lowry avoiding missing any time on the court. Head Coach Nick Nurse admitted his team were beaten in all aspects of Game 1, but the Toronto Raptors are still the defending Champions and they will feel they can show much better in this Series.

Some of the emotions that had been put into the previous few days when the Toronto Raptors were another one of the leading voices that felt the NBA PlayOffs had to be postponed for a couple of days may have added up to the performance in Game 1. With two days to reset again, Toronto should be much better although the level needed to sweep the Brooklyn Nets in the First Round will not be good enough to beat the Celtics.

Toronto will need to be better all around in Game 2 and they can't allow Boston to dominate the boards as they did in the first game of the Series. There are some adjustments that can be made, but I still believe the Boston Celtics are the better team and I am surprised they are still an underdog having beaten down Toronto in the two games in the NBA bubble between these teams.

I can't imagine the Raptors shooting as poorly in Game 2 as they did in Game 1, but even then the Celtics will be playing with confidence.

They are still one of the top teams to back as a narrow underdog and Boston have been very good when facing the best teams in the NBA. The Celtics improved to 20-8 against the spread in their last twenty-eight games as the underdog and they are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against the Raptors.

This should be closer, but being able to back the better team as the underdog is a spot I will go with.


Wednesday 2nd September
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: It was a tight Game 1 of this Eastern Conference Semi Final Series and the Miami Heat did what many feel they could and that is challenge the Milwaukee Bucks. Personally I thought they might have been caught cold in Game 1, but the Miami Heat were the ones making the big plays down the stretch as they held off the Milwaukee Bucks push having recovered from an 11 point deficit at the end of the First Quarter.

Some lesser teams might have taken the shot on the chin and perhaps struggled to get up, but the Miami Heat continue to show they do match up well against the Bucks. With Jimmy Butler they may have the stand out player on the court who has both the experience and the clutch talent to help his team when things get tight, but he was also well supported by the likes of Goran Dragic and Bam Adebayo.

Both teams did manage to get to the Free Throw line with some regularity, but the Heat made those throws count while the Bucks simply did not. Giannis Antetokounmpo was guilty of that going 4-12 from the Free Throw line, and his sub-par performance wasted those from Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez who both managed to put more points on the board than the Milwaukee star player.

Milwaukee won't be overly worried about one performance having recovered from 0-1 down to beat the Orlando Magic in five games in the First Round of the Series. However, they will be a little concerned in falling into a big hole against the Miami Heat who have been a thorn in their side in the regular season and who squared things up at 1-1 inside the NBA bubble.

The players have admitted that they played well in Game 1, but only graded themselves a 'B' and that is proof that the Bucks need to be at their best to win this Series. Milwaukee actually had a better percentage than the Heat from the field, but it was the Free Throws and being completely outplayed on the boards which prevented them winning the opening game.

Eric Bledsoe was a big loss for the Bucks too and he remains questionable for this game. While he would be a boost, Milwaukee will believe they still can recover in this Series in what is a pivotal game even at this stage.

19 Turnovers have to be cleared up by the Bucks too, but I do think this is a team that can bounce back from their opening defeat. Number 1 Seeds in the Conference Semi Finals have been usually strong favourites to back, while the Bucks are 12-3 against the spread in their last fifteen games following a double digit loss.

In usual circumstances you would really like the Bucks with Game 2 one they would have been hosting, but playing inside the NBA bubble has just changed things. That lessens some of the enthusiasm for this selection, but I do think Milwaukee have shown how good they are all season and I expect them to be a much tougher out on the boards and that could lead to a win this time.


Thursday 3rd September
Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: No one associated with the Toronto Raptors are going to be panicking about being in a 0-2 hole in the NBA PlayOffs having recovered from this exact position in knocking off the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2019. There is one key difference though and that is the Raptors don't have a stand out player like Kawhi Leonard to call upon this time around.

Two defeats to the Boston Celtics have come in different ways for the Toronto Raptors who have not been able to match the Defensive intensity nor the depth of the lower Seeded team. In both games in the Conference Semi Finals the Raptors have yet to crack 100 points and adding this to the other game between these teams in the NBA bubble means there is a definite trend developing.

The Raptors did score 100 points in that regular season game inside the bubble, but they were beaten which means Toronto are 0-3 against the Celtics over the last six weeks but 11-0 against everyone else. They can't really hope the Celtics suddenly go off the boil either with Boston having won six PlayOff games in succession and impressing on the Defensive side of the court to the point that they have yet to give up more than 106 points in a single game.

Boston will be looking to keep that intensity going on the Defensive side of the court and knowing they have players who are stepping up Offensively at different times does ease the burden on the roster. In Game 1 six players scored at least 10 points for the Celtics and in Game 2 it was five players who managed to score at least 11 points.

With Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown impressing early, it was Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart that took over late and that caring and sharing attitude is keeping the Celtics moving forward. The Celtics were not as strong from the field in Game 2 compared with Game 1, but for the second game in a row they prevented Toronto from hitting better than 40% from the field and restricted them to 28% or worse from three point range.

You do have to believe that Toronto will eventually get things turned around, especially as they have been hitting at 37% from three point range from the season. Without Kawhi Leonard there has been more pressure on the remaining roster, but no Toronto player has scored more than 20 points in either of the first two games and that is a massive worry for them.

Even now the layers are not convinced that Boston are the better team with them remaining a narrow underdog for this third game of a potential seven. I do think we will see a reaction from Toronto, but they look to be a tiring team with a small rotation of players being used and there simply is no time to really rest and recover inside the NBA PlayOff schedule.

My lean is that Boston will win again, but instead of that I am going to back this Game 3 to land under what looks a high total. Overtime is a worry if this is another close game, but I do think the two teams have shown enough Defensively to believe they will hit the under for fourth time in succession inside the bubble.

Both could get hot from the three point range and scupper this selection, but I think there are some tired bodies out there especially on the Toronto side of the court. That makes it tough to deal with all the looks Boston can send at you and I will look for the under here.

The 'under' has been trending in recent games between these teams and those involving Boston and Toronto and I think that is the sensible play rather than backing the Celtics again in front of a desperate defending Champion.


Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 1 Pick: There has been a few days for the Los Angeles Clippers to just reset and recover after a tougher than expected First Round Series against the Dallas Mavericks. At 2-2 in the First Round the Clippers looked to be rocking, but Paul George rediscovered his best form at just the right time and the Clippers were able to blow past the Mavericks in the last two games to secure a victory in six games.

That has given the team a few days to rest and wait out the Denver Nuggets who became the twelfth team in NBA history to recover from 3-1 down to win a PlayOff Series. The Nuggets found just enough Defensive quality at the right time to edge out the Utah Jazz in the First Round, but Jamal Murray was the first to make a statement on the short turnaround into the Conference Semi Final.

Instead of having a few days to recover, the Nuggets are going back out onto a neutral court just two days after booking their spot in the Semi Final Series. Jamal Murray's statement has got the fans a little wary about Game 1 even with the return of Gary Harris as the amount of effort needed to get through the First Round will have an impact on the Denver Nuggets.

There is also no doubt that the quality of opponent is raised significantly with the Los Angeles Clippers next up. Patrick Beverley looks like he will return to give the Clippers another outstanding Defender to put on the court, while they have depth, All-Stars and others capable of getting hot from the field Offensively.

Slowing down the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard is going to be a real challenge for the Nuggets in usual circumstances, but trying to do that in Game 1 while being physically given a battle by the Clippers looks very hard to deal with. When they met last month in the bubble, Denver admitted they had been bullied by the Clippers who secured a 13 point win and had their way Offensively.

I do like the Nuggets and you can't discount a team who showed as much heart as they did in the First Round when things looked to be conspiring against them. However the Los Angeles Clippers are a different kettle of fish compared with the Utah Jazz and the strength at both ends of the court will give them a real edge over the Nuggets in this one.

After all the effort over the last few days to simply make the Semi Final Series, I do think the Nuggets might just tire in this one. The Clippers won the last two regular season games between these teams by double digits each time and they can cover the mark in this one too.

Denver have been a good underdog to back, but the Los Angeles Clippers counter that with some strong performances as the favourite. The Clippers are also 22-8-1 against the spread in their last thirty-one games when having three or more days rest between games and I think the likes of Leonard and George will be able to take over this Game 1 in the second half and produce a big win for the favourites.


Friday 4th September
Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: The Miami Heat have never lost a PlayOff Series in which they have moved into a 2-0 lead and that is exactly where they stand against the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. A controversial late call gave Jimmy Butler two Free Throws with the game tied and with no time left on the clock and it meant the Miami Heat were able to narrowly leave with a 2-0 lead over the Milwaukee Bucks who have to respond immediately.

In the NBA bubble, there is no time for a team to feel sorry for themselves with PlayOff games scheduled every two days to ensure we can complete the NBA Finals next month. That means there is little time to sit back and make huge adjustments, but the Bucks have to find an answer to the Heat who have given them huge problems throughout the 2019/20 season.

No one associated with the Milwaukee Bucks will be ready to give up on this Series right now knowing they blew a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals last year against the eventual Champions Toronto Raptors. However, the Bucks need to find the right answers for other players to step up their play outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo whose future will be a storyline throughout the 2020/21 season if the Bucks are beaten before the NBA Finals again.

They did look like the favourites to win the NBA Championship during the majority of the season, but Milwaukee have not played to the level needed for some time now. It is getting close to the point where there is no turning back for the Bucks if they can't win Game 3 of the Conference Semi Finals and that means there is a real pressure on the role players.

Milwaukee played well in Game 2, but they are not hitting enough three pointers and even the huge dominance on the boards and having more Free Throws than the Heat was not enough to level the Series. The Heat play with some real fire on the Defensive side of the court to make things difficult for Milwaukee and Miami also have to be pleased with the way the role players are rallying around Jimmy Butler, their own All-Star who is making huge plays in the PlayOffs.

It was the ten more three pointers hit by Miami in Game 2 that helped them edge to the win and the Heat have shown more Offensive consistency than the Bucks through the first two games. They have scored at least 114 points in each of the three games against the Milwaukee Bucks played inside the NBA bubble and that simply means the Number 1 Seed have to find more Offense from somewhere.

With the teams hammering their way into the paint, the fouls are racking up in this Series and that has the potential to lead Game 3 to a surpassing of the total points line set. My one concern is that the referees were widely criticised for a couple of horrific calls down the stretch in Game 2 which may have them wary to reach for the whistle, but both Miami and Milwaukee look for contact and search for a way to the foul line.

I expect a much better shooting effort from Milwaukee when it comes to the three pointers in Game 3 compared with the last one and two of the three games between these teams inside the bubble would have surpassed the mark set for this game.

The over has hit at 6-2 in the last eight games Milwaukee have played following a straight up loss and that side of the total is also 3-1-1 in the last five games Miami have played as the underdog.

Both teams are playing well enough from the field to believe they can score the buckets needed and coupled with the amount of fouls we have seen means the game is extended. I will look for Game 3 to surpass the total mark.


Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Pick: While one team has had almost a full week off to rest and recover for this Western Conference Semi Final Series, the other is coming off a battling and emotional Game 7 success. The Houston Rockets managed to just about hold off the Oklahoma City Thunder in the First Round and there is a feeling they could make life difficult for the Number 1 Seeds in the Western Conference in the Los Angeles Lakers.

However, like the Denver Nuggets, the Houston Rockets have only been given a day off to recover from all of the efforts needed to win Game 7 of the First Round Series. Now they have to face a team that many will have tipped to be favourites to win the NBA Championship and one that is rested and likely been preparing for an eventual Houston win ever since the Rockets moved 3-2 ahead in the First Round Series.

Not closing that out is down to the inconsistent Offensive performances put together by the Houston Rockets with James Harden being a particular culprit. The All-Star has struggled with the strong Defensive performances of Luguentz Dort holding Harden down in the First Round and The Beard is also under pressure to show he can lead a team to a Championship.

Having running mate Russell Westbrook back and building his rhythm will really help James Harden and the Houston Rockets, but they have gone all in on 'small ball basketball' and that means they live and die by the three point shot. The Rockets have been struggling for consistency as I have mentioned and that has seen them shoot 42% from the field and just 35% from three point range in their last five games.

Those marks are going to be difficult to improve against the Los Angeles Lakers who shut down the Portland Trail Blazers in the final four games of the First Round Series. A tiring Trail Blazers team were missing some key players by the end, but the Lakers may feel they can overwhelm what has to be a fatigued Houston team at least very early on in this Conference Semi Final Series.

Rajon Rondo is likely going to suit up for the Lakers and they will look to harass Houston at the three point line, although the Rockets have felt they match up well with the Lakers. Since changing tact and systems, the Rockets have beaten the Lakers twice including in the NBA bubble, although that was a game that LeBron James missed.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis had a very good First Round Series, but they are going to be facing a Houston team that actually played well Defensively in the First Round of the PlayOffs. It is an area in which Houston are looking to improve and I do think they are going to need all of their Defensive effort to try and steal an advantage in Game 1.

We saw the Denver Nuggets just wear down in their Game 1 against the Los Angeles Clippers and I think bully ball is going to be played by the Lakers against a tired Houston team. While this could be a fascinating Series going forward, I do think the Los Angeles Lakers might take advantage in the second half of Game 1 and pull clear very much like their neighbours did on Thursday.

You never know if the Rockets will suddenly get much hotter from three point range and stun Los Angeles, but I think the reality is that it can be difficult to pick yourself from a Game 7 effort. With limited time to recover I do think the Lakers can take advantage of Houston on Friday.

The Lakers do tend to be an over-rated team for the most part with the public always keen to get behind them, but I think the spread has moved down to a mark from where they can be backed in this Game 1.

Tuesday 15th September

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 7 Pick: In the First Round the Denver Nuggets became only the twelfth team in NBA history who have come from 3-1 down to win a PlayOff Series, but they are on the brink of becoming the first team to do it twice in the same PlayOff run. After falling into a couple of big holes in each of the last two games, the Denver Nuggets have shown how much they believe in each other to knuckle down Defensively and turn things around in the second half.

The Los Angeles Lakers are already waiting for the winner of this Series in the Western Conference Finals, but their local rivals the Clippers have really made hard work for themselves. They needed six games to beat the Dallas Mavericks in the First Round, but the big concern for the team is blowing a 16 point lead in Game 5 and then a 19 point lead in Game 6 to fall into this difficult position.

All of the pressure is on the Los Angeles Clippers as the favourites to win the Series and that is what the Denver Nuggets are keen to remind the press. After twice blowing big chances to progress there is going to be a weight on the shoulders of the Clippers and even if they get off to a strong start they have to erase the painful memories felt in the last couple of games.

At times the Clippers have looked like they can do what they like Offensively, but it was a stretch of eleven possessions in a row without scoring a bucket which cost them in Game 6. Too often in this Series the Clippers have gone cold at inopportune times and that has allowed the steady Nuggets to fight back and eventually take control of the games.

The Defensive performances have really impressed considering how poor Denver were on that side of the court for much of the First Round Series win over the Utah Jazz. Again it has to be said for long stretches the Clippers have been able to do what they like Offensively, but those big streaks of cold shooting have hampered them and the Nuggets need to be given credit for that.

However, you can't ignore the fact that Los Angeles Clippers have had the game plan to get into a position of having a big lead. Doc Rivers has made it clear his team need to remain strong physically and emotionally in Game 7, while they do have a player with previous at this stage of the PlayOffs in Kawhi Leonard.

Jamal Murray might be a little banged up for Denver and that could also be a huge benefit for the favourites if he is not at his best. I don't doubt that Murray plays in Game 7 with the season on the line, but if he is slightly off the mark it is going to need someone to stand up alongside the dominant Nikola Jurkic.

The Nuggets have to be respected because they seem to not know when they are beaten, but the Los Angeles Clippers are the better team. There is a real pressure on the favourites, but I think they have the players to cope and I can't see them blowing a big lead for a third time in a row.

Denver have the against the spread stats, but two of the three Los Angeles wins in the series have seen them cover this mark and I do still think they are the most likely winners.

MY PICKS: 01/09 Boston Celtics + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
02/09 Milwaukee Bucks - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/09 Boston Celtics-Toronto Raptors Under 215 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/09 Los Angeles Clippers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/09 Miami Heat-Milwaukee Bucks Over 223 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
04/09 Los Angeles Lakers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

15/09 Los Angeles Clippers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Semi Finals: 3-3, - 0.27 Units

NBA First Round Update: 20-17-3, + 1.26 Units