US Open Day 10 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 9th)

Four of the eight Semi Finalists at the US Open were decided on Tuesday and the remaining players that will make the last four of the Men's and Women's events will be confirmed over the course of Day 10 at Flushing Meadows.

Some of the star power has been missing at this Grand Slam, but the quality of the matches and the drama has kept the interest going with a number of matches going the distance.

While the two Men's Quarter Finals were better in terms of intrigue than the two Women's Quarter Finals on Day 9, I do think we will see something of a reversal on Wednesday. Both Women's matches look like they could be very competitive, while we have two strong favourites in the Men's Quarter Finals to come.


My last standing Outright Pick will be in action today and a win for Daniil Medvedev would at least secure that selection as spot in the quiet 'Winner's Enclosure'.

I am looking to use the momentum of the Day 9 selections to take me through the remainder of this tournament beginning with the Picks to be made for the remaining Quarter Final matches.


Dominic Thiem - 6.5 games v Alex De Minaur: After reaching the Australian Open Final earlier in the year Dominic Thiem will feel comfortable on the hard courts. Over the last twelve months he has shown a real affinity for the surface having previously played his best tennis on the clay courts, while the Austrian is now the highest Seeded player left at the US Open in the Men's draw.

He might not have a better chance to win a Grand Slam with the big three all out of the tournament for various reasons and Dominic Thiem will feel largely happy with the Quarter Final match up in front of him. That is no disrespect to Alex De Minaur, but the Australian isn't someone who is going to take the racquet out of Thiem's hands and ultimately it feels like a match in which it is the World Number 3's to lose.

They have met twice before and both in a best of five set situation and it is Dominic Thiem who has won both and only dropped a single set in that time. One of those wins came at the US Open in straight sets and there has been a real discrepancy between their respective abilities to hold serve.

The last of those matches was just under two years ago so the head to head might not be relevant, but you do have to favour Dominic Thiem's serve out of the two in this Quarter Final.

He has been producing some very strong numbers throughout the tournament and that has sparked Thiem's return game with the confidence that his own serve is going to hold up. The return on the hard courts has not been the most productive over the last twelve months, but Dominic Thiem has been strong on that side of his game at the US Open and created at least ten break points in each of the matches played here.

I don't think you can underestimate Alex De Minaur who has played some of his best tennis on this surface, and the Australian does have a 3-3 record on this surface against top ten Ranked opponents over the last twelve months. That is a record that needs some respect, but you also have to accept that his 75% hold rate and 19% break rate in those matches also suggests that he might struggle to stay with Dominic Thiem over the best of five sets format.

A couple of the sets could be really competitive, but I do think Thiem will eventually begin to gain control here and that should set him up for the win and the cover. It won't be easy as I have mentioned, but I can see a set being won with a couple of breaks of serve and that should send Thiem on his way to the cover of this mark.


Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Andrey Rublev: This all Russian Quarter Final has all the makings of a match that could be seen regularly at the back end of Grand Slam tournaments in the coming years. Both Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev have both made impacts at this level in the past, but the winner of this match may feel they can go all the way and win a maiden Grand Slam which could be the spark their career will need.

These two will be well versed with each other, but Rublev will have something to prove having been dominated by his compatriot in their previous professional matches. Andrey Rublev will have to come out and show that he is not intimidated or still looking up to Daniil Medvedev and that will at least give him a chance.

Over the last twelve months both players have been stellar performers on the hard courts with the highlight being Medvedev's run to the Final at the US Open. The two players have strong serves and very good returns, although it may be something of a surprise to note that Andrey Rublev has the slightly superior numbers on that side of the court.

However those numbers have taken a serious dent when Andrey Rublev has faced up to top 20 and top 10 Ranked opponents on the surface in that time span.

And in their three previous matches against one another on the hard courts, Andrey Rublev has held serve in 55% of service games played compared with Daniil Medvedev's 87% mark and that could be another big difference between them on the day.

Daniil Medvedev has the stronger numbers when he matches up with the better players on the Tour on the hard courts and I do think he deserves a significant edge in the match. Both players have played really well at Flushing Meadows over the last ten days, but Medvedev definitely feels like he is at a higher level of the two in this Quarter Final and I think he makes the big moves at the big moments to move through to another Semi Final behind a strong statement win.


Tsvetana Pironkova-Serena Williams over 19.5 games: Even at her best you wouldn't really have put Tsvetana Pironkova down as one of the top players on the WTA Tour and that feeling is underlined by the fact she has never cracked the top 30 of the World Rankings.

There had been flashes, most notably when she reached the Semi Final and then Quarter Final in back to back years at Wimbledon, but the Bulgarian holds a losing record at both the Australian Open and US Open before this year's tournament.

She arrived at Flushing Meadows on a Protected Ranking as Pironkova had left the Tour to start a family over three years ago and I don't think anyone outside of her closest circle would have expected the kind of run she has put together. Wins over Garbine Muguruza, Donna Vekic and Alize Cornet have to be admired and especially more so as Pironkova has only dropped a single set in the last three Rounds as the quality of opposition has improved.

Now she has to raise her level again to take on Serena Williams who has needed three sets to see off Sloane Stephens and Maria Sakkari in the last two Rounds. The American is still walking onto the court with an aura around her, but many players are also looking beyond that now and it does mean Serena Williams has been pushed very hard in the last couple of matches here.

Her poor form ahead of the US Open will have raised some doubts and it doesn't feel like Williams has been peaking into this tournament as she would have liked. The serve remains a big weapon, but Tsvetana Pironkova will feel she is returning well enough to at least try and put some pressure on Williams even if in their past matches there has been little sign of the Bulgarian being able to do that for a long enough period to win the match.

Much of this one may depend on how well Pironkova serves as Serena has had one or two difficulties getting good enough reads against her last couple of opponents. In the last twelve months there has been a decline in Williams' returning numbers and so the belief is that a strong serving day from Tsvetana Pironkova may give her an opportunity to keep her dream run going through another Round.

Personally I think it will be difficult for Pironkova to do that over two hours, but I do think she can make at least one of the sets played very competitive and that could see the total games market surpassed. If she can win at least five games in one of the sets being competed, the total games line could be overcome even in a two set defeat and I think Pironkova is playing well enough to do that.

Serena Williams is still very difficult to oppose and has the capability of blowing someone off the court when at her best, but we haven't really seen enough of that in this tournament. I think that will make this a tighter match than some may expect in the first match to go out on Arthur Ashe on Day 10.


Elise Mertens v Victoria Azarenka: The last of the Women's Quarter Final matches looks like being a really good one, but I am not sure Victoria Azarenka has been playing well enough to warrant being a favourite over Elise Mertens.

First the disclaimer- I know Azarenka won the title here at the end of August on the eve of the US Open beginning, while she has already beaten three players Ranked in the top 53 at this tournament too. Those are impressive results, and I do think Victoria Azarenka is going to be feeling very good about her overall game heading into this Quarter Final.

Victoria Azarenka is a twice beaten Finalist at the US Open so clearly enjoys playing here, but before this tournament she had not been beyond the Third Round at any of the last seven Grand Slams she has been competing in. Since returning from becoming a mother, Azarenka has also struggled with her consistency and she is going to need all of that and more to beat a very strong defensive player like Elise Mertens who can also be very good when she starts becoming an aggressive player on the court too.

That balance makes the Belgian a very dangerous customer and you can't doubt how well Mertens was playing when reaching the Semi Final in the same tournament that Azarenka eventually went on to win. Her overall levels have been higher than those that Azarenka has reached and I do think Mertens is someone who deserves to be the favourite and not the underdog in this match.

Elise Mertens has been playing with consistency at the US Open and I do think her win over Sofia Kenin and the manner it came about is arguably the most impressive that either of these players has produced.

My one concern about Mertens is that she has not really competed very well with the top players of the WTA Tour on this surface. Over the last twelve months she had a 1-7 record on the surface against top 20 Ranked players before the win over Australian Open Champion Sofia Kenin in the Fourth Round and Victoria Azarenka is certainly playing well enough to be given a lot of respect.

However, I do think Elise Mertens has the kind of game to extract errors from Victoria Azarenka over the course of this match and I simply have to back her as the underdog in this situation.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova-Serena Williams Over 19.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elise Mertens @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

US Open Update: 39-33, + 1.93 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.34% Yield)