The last couple of days for the Tennis Picks have not simply not been good enough as far as I am concerned and I am looking for better as we head towards the weekend.
We are moving into the remainder of the Second Round on Thursday and at least the Outright Picks have continued to move through the draw. It was not easy for either Novak Djokovic or Stefanos Tsitsipas, but both have earned their spot in the Third Round which begins on Friday.
Day 4 Picks can be seen below, although the expected rain did not arrive on Wednesday and I am hoping the same can be said on Thursday too.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 6.5 games v Miomir Kecmanovic: On another day Roberto Bautista Agut would have won by an even easier scoreline than the final one provided against Tennys Sandgren in the First Round, but the Spaniard will only care about two things- one is managing to get through in straight sets and the other is knowing he spent less than three hours on the court.
At this stage of a Grand Slam it is important for players to try and save some energy by trying to get through their matches as soon as possible. It is especially the case for the players in the Men's draw with the best of five situation, but Roberto Bautista Agut is someone who knows how to get the best out of his game.
While not doing anything spectacularly, Bautista Agut is a solid performer who has some very good numbers on the hard courts and we saw more of the same from him in the First Round. One concern will be the amount of break points he gave up to a limited returner like Tennys Sandgren, but it is something you would expect Roberto Bautista Agut to clear up and more so in this match.
I have plenty of time for Miomir Kecmanovic and I do think the young player is an improving one on the Tour, but over the last twelve months he has held less than 80% of the service games played on the hard courts. That is going to be nothing but encouragement for Roberto Bautista Agut in this match, although Kecmanovic may feel he has enough from his return game to at least recover at times.
He did need five sets to come through his own First Round match, but Miomir Kecmanovic only spent a few more minutes on the court than Roberto Bautista Agut. He didn't return as well as he would have liked in the First Round and I do think that is an area in which the higher Ranked player will prove to have a serious edge in this match.
Roberto Bautista Agut should be able to eventually show he is the stronger player on the hard courts at this stage of their respective careers. The Spaniard beat Kecmanovic very easily on the fast hard courts in Cincinnati in 2019 and I think he will be comfortable in the conditions, while the lack of recent competitive tennis will also likely go against the younger player.
Emil Ruusuvuori - 3.5 games v Casper Ruud: Both of these players needed five sets to get through to the Second Round at the US Open and both have spent over three hours of the court to work their way through. Emil Ruusuvuori and Casper Ruud have both hit a career high World Ranking in 2020, although it is the latter who is a touch further along in his career at this point.
That may have some considering the underdog, but I do think Ruud is going to have to be stronger than he was in the First Round when he had to recover from 2-0 down in sets to eventually see off Mackenzie McDonald. It would have been a real emotional effort that Casper Ruud would have had to put into that win, but it will be a victory that will give him confidence having had a pretty average year on the hard courts from the small sample we can view in 2020.
There is no doubt that you have to respect the serve that Casper Ruud brings onto the court, but his return game has been largely limited on the hard courts. Over the last twelve months he has broken in just under 17% of return games played against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and that does bring its own pressure on the Ruud serve.
Casper Ruud will believe that serve is good enough to trouble youngster Emil Ruusuvuori who has shown considerable talent albeit mainly at the Challenger level rather than the main ATP level. In saying that, Ruusuvuori has been in good form over the last couple of weeks inside the New York City bubble and he is coming off a third win over a top 100 Ranked opponent in that time.
The return of serve has given Emil Ruusuvuori chances to win matches, while his serve has been good enough to give him an opportunity to rattle through some games. Confidence should not be an issue for Ruusuvuori who has been holding 86% of his service games played on the hard courts and breaking in 25% over the last twelve months and I do think he can have a career breakthrough by edging closer to the second week of a Slam for the first time.
I don't think it will be an easy match for Emil Ruusuvuori against someone like Casper Ruud who does have a big game, but I expect the superior returning on the hard courts to perhaps see things edge in the favour of the younger player.
Matteo Berrettini-Ugo Humbert over 37.5 games: It is perhaps no surprise that last season's US Open Semi Finalist Matteo Berrettini is such a big favourite to win this Second Round match, although I always think it is difficult to believe completely in someone whose return game is as average as the Italian's is. Over the last twelve months he has only broken in 15% of return games played on the hard courts and he has won 32% of return points won, which are numbers that suggest it will be difficult to match the run Matteo Berrettini had last year.
He is perhaps mentally stronger than the raw numbers which helps Berrettini win matches, while the serve is a huge weapon that can put a lot of pressure on his opponents. However, in saying all that it has to be noted that he is just 12-11 on the hard courts since the 2019 US Open and Berrettini is just 3-2 in 2020 on this surface despite four of the five opponents being Ranked 100 or lower.
Things were comfortable for Matteo Berrettini in the First Round as he won in straight sets and all of the numbers looked very good. I do think it will be a big step up in levels in the Second Round when he takes on Ugo Humbert who is at his peak Ranking going into the US Open.
The Frenchman has won a title on the hard courts in 2020, but he has been struggling for consistency which has prevented him from having a stronger record than the 12-8 where he stands on the hard courts. Ugo Humbert does have some good looking numbers over the last twelve months having held 84% of service games played on this surface while finding breaks in 24% of return games played.
It is certainly the kind of numbers that suggests Humbert can give Berrettini something to think about, while the younger player has also won their sole previous meeting. That also came on the hard courts and Ugo Humbert only dropped three games in the straight sets win in Brest in 2017, although Matteo Berrettini is much improved since then.
Tie-breakers would not be a major surprise when you think of the kind of serving and returning we are likely to see in this one. Both produced some strong serving in their straight sets wins in the First Round and I do think some of the limitations on the return will be shown up for both players.
My feeling is that both are good enough to take a set here and that should lead to at least four longish sets that can help the two combine for enough games to cover this line. I think both Matteo Berrettini and Ugo Humbert will be looking to use their serve to full effect on what feel like quick courts and I think either player would be very disappointed with themselves if they were to drop this match in straight sets.
Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: In an open draw you have to respect the previous efforts of Johanna Konta which have seen her go close to winning a maiden Grand Slam title. There isn't a clear favourite in this tournament, although Konta is perhaps in the toughest half and that means she has to be near to her best immediately.
A solid run in the tournament played here ahead of the US Open will have given Johanna Konta a boost having not really played her best tennis pre-lockdown.
There is little doubt that Konta is going to need to bring her best against a solid veteran like Sorana Cirstea who has been effective on the hard courts without being spectacular. She did play a clay court tournament when the Tour resumed last month, but Cirstea joined the New York City bubble, although the Romanian was not able to make the main draw having been beaten in the Qualifying Rounds.
Sorana Cirstea did earn an upset win in the First Round of the US Open with her straight sets success over Christina McHale and it was a strong performance. The serve is still one that can be hurt, but Cirstea took her chances when the break points came her way and she has won 44% of the return points played on the hard courts over the last twelve months.
It will be a challenge to get to that number against Johanna Konta who has one of the more effective serves on the WTA Tour- it was the serve that saw her wear down compatriot Heather Watson in the First Round. However, the main reason for Konta's relative struggles in 2020 has been the ineffectiveness when it comes to the return of serve so she will have been happy with the overall performance in the First Round having broken the Watson serve three times.
In 2020 Johanna Konta has won 39% of the return points played on the hard courts, but she has improved that number to 44% inside the bubble and that will give her confidence.
To further that, Konta has dominated the previous two matches against Sorana Cirstea- it might not be as relevant with both matches played over three years ago and on different surfaces, but I do think the British Number 1 should have enough in her game to control this match.
We have seen in the last couple of days that this mark can be very difficult to surpass if making a slow start, but Johanna Konta might like the rhythm she gets from Sorana Cirstea and has the superior serve which can help her wear down this opponent mentally.
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 games v Caty Mcnally: Playing a legend and falling a set behind might have been a much tougher situation for Ekaterina Alexandrova to have dealt with if Kim Clijsters had been playing in front of a loud and vocal support at the US Open. The absence of fans certainly would have helped the younger player turn things around and Alexandrova will be desperate to make sure she backs up a big win in a match in which she is considered a stronger favourite to get through.
The 18 year old American Caty Mcnally would have surely been given the majority of support in this match, but she showed some of the talent in easing her way through the First Round. This is the third Grand Slam in a row that Mcnally has worked her way into the Second Round, although the youngster has yet to be able to move past this Round.
She had been comfortably beaten in the first matches played in Lexington and here last week on the resumption of the Tennis Tour, but Mcnally has shown some solid ability on the hard courts even when stepping up to take on these main Tour events. The return of serve can be dangerous, but the Caty Mcnally numbers do take a serious dent when she has faced up against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface.
Caty Mcnally was very strong in her First Round match, but in general she has struggled to really compete as well as she would have liked when the better players on the Tour are put in front of her, and that is the case in this Second Round match.
Over the last twelve months Ekaterina Alexandrova has shown considerable improvement on the Tour and on the hard courts. Her performance in the win over Clijsters will have given her confidence, but also highlights the kind of self-belief Alexandrova now has.
The Russian player has a strong serve which will always give her a chance to win matches at her best, although I do think she would like to show an improvement in the return game. Those return numbers have been considerably better when facing those players Ranked outside the top 50 though and Ekaterina Alexandrova dealt with the Kim Clijsters serve in the First Roudn which is stronger than the one that Caty Mcnally will bring to the court.
Emotionally it can be difficult for someone to recover from a win over a top name like Alexandrova had in the First Round, but I do think she will be ready for this one. Caty Mcnally has not really been able to stick with the better players she has faced on the hard courts in the last twelve months and I will look for Ekaterina Alexandrova to cover a slightly bigger mark than she was asked to do in the First Round.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Emil Ruusuvuori - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini-Ugo Humbert Over 37.5 Total Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka-Victoria Azarenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics @ 2.37 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 19-15, + 3.10 Units (68 Units Staked, + 4.56% Yield)
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