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Friday 11 September 2020

US Open Day 12 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 11th)

Even without the fans in attendance it will always be an emotional day at sporting events played in the United States and particularly those played in New York City on September 11th.

Nineteen years have passed since that infamous day in history and it is one that will not be forgotten.


I am sure they will mark the occasion in some way at the US Open on Day 12 of the tournament when the two Men's Singles Semi Finals are played. All four remaining in the draw have a huge opportunity to win their maiden Grand Slam title, although the majority of fans would likely make the winner of the second Semi Final the strong favourite to win the title when the Final is played on Sunday.

The Women's Final was set on Thursday as this tournament reaches its final few days and then the Tour will be moving on to the clay courts ahead of the French Open which will begin before September comes to an end.

It is a crazy schedule at a crazy time for all of us.


Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: A five set win over Denis Shapovalov means Pablo Carreno Busta has made use of being the beneficiary of Novak Djokovic's Default in the Fourth Round. Now he gets set to play his second US Open Semi Final having been beaten in four sets by Kevin Anderson at this stage in 2017, but you can't underestimate the experience that the Spaniard would have picked up.

His opponent has not reached the US Open Semi Final before, but Alexander Zverev has reached consecutive Grand Slam Semi Finals after doing the same at the Australian Open at the start of the year. The four set win over Borna Coric was short of a lot of quality, but the German found a way to win a match that he would have lost eighteen months ago and that has to be something Zverev is given credit for.

There was still over three hours needed on court though and Alexander Zverev has sometimes been let down late in Grand Slams as fatigue built up through the tournament end up catching up with him. However, in this case his opponent Pablo Carreno Busta had to spend almost four a and a half hours on court to win his Quarter Final and admitted he was shattered at the end of the match.

I do think Carreno Busta has some solid numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months which have to be respected. He also plays with a toughness which means he does not give up easily on the court and that kind of attitude could be very dangerous for the younger player to deal with things.

Alexander Zverev has not been dominating in this tournament, but he has played well enough behind serve to believe he can keep Pablo Carreno Busta under pressure. I do think his return could be improved and certainly will need to be if Zverev is going to win his maiden Grand Slam, but it might be good enough to be effective against Carreno Busta if there is any lingering fatigue from the long Quarter Final match.

The German out-served Pablo Carreno Busta when these players met in Miami in March 2018 and I do think Zverev makes a much more effective start than the one he did in the Quarter Final. Over the last twelve months Alexander Zverev has had a slight edge over Pablo Carreno Busta when it comes to the return of serve on the hard courts and I think that may show up in this match too as he reaches his first Grand Slam Final.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Both Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem have reached the Final of a Grand Slam event played on the hard courts over the last twelve months- in 2019 the Russian reached the Final here at the US Open before finding Rafael Nadal a little too good in five sets and Dominic Thiem reached the Final at the Australian Open before his own five set defeat to Novak Djokovic.

With those results behind them, I do think both Medvedev and Thiem are going into this Semi Final with a real belief that the winning player will be going on to win their maiden Grand Slam title.

Between the two players only a single set has been dropped at the US Open in the ten matches played combined together. That is underlining how well both Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem have played at the tournament so far, although there is a very slight concern about the shoulder issue and cramping that Medvedev had in the Quarter Final.

You can't dismiss the high level that Dominic Thiem has been producing through the tournament, but this will be the first top 20 Ranked player that he will have come up against. Over the last twelve months the Austrian has played well on the hard courts, but his serve is one that can look a little more vulnerable when he faces top 20 and then top 10 Ranked players on the surface.

Now Thiem has to play an opponent in Daniil Medvedev who has produced some stunning numbers on this surface over the last twelve months. The Russian has a real edge over Dominic Thiem when it comes to the service points and return points won on the hard courts over the last several months and it should mean he is rightly down as a narrow favourite.

One concern is that Medvedev is 2-4 when it comes to facing top 10 Ranked opponents on this surface and his numbers are perhaps not quite as strong as Dominic Thiem's against that level of opponent. It is very close though and it may lead to a match that goes the distance as long as Daniil Medvedev's fitness holds up.

When these players last met it was on the hard courts in Canada in August 2019 and Daniil Medvedev crushed Dominic Thiem for the loss of just four games. The Russian dominated in all aspects of that match, but I think Dominic Thiem is playing at a strong level which should make him much more competitive in this one.

However, Daniil Medvedev is serving very well and I think that will give him the edge in the match again and I will look for him to move through to a second straight US Open Final.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 42-36, + 1.79 Units (156 Units Staked, + 1.15% Yield)

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