US Open Day 2 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 1st)

There is no doubt that there is a strange atmosphere at Flushing Meadows as the US Open got underway on Monday- no fans makes it difficult viewing on television at times, while some players are going to find it hard to pump themselves up without the support from the stands.

I do think it could mean seeing more upsets over the next two weeks, but Monday went largely to plan for the favourites in the top half of the First Round draws in both the Men's and Women's events.


Arthur Ashe was particularly hard to watch with the vast swathes of empty seats, but I do think the top players will get used to the way things are going to operate fairly quickly. The bigger concern for those on the site has to be the chance of getting a 'false positive' test when it comes to Covid-19 that would see them knocked out of the tournament without taking the court.

The NFL has had issues with 'false positive' tests thanks to a testing unit being used, and some are questioning who the Tennis authorities are using for their own tests. There seems to be more exiting and entering the bubble than the NBA are allowing, but the NBA have set the standard to this point with the effectiveness of their bubble clear for all to see.


Day 2 at the US Open sees the remaining First Round matches scheduled to be completed. You can read my views on the tournament and any Outright selections for the tournament here and below I will place down my thoughts and Picks from Day 2.

It was a good start for the Tennis Picks with a 7-2 start on Monday and I am looking to back that up. We will have some ups and downs over the next two weeks as you can get in a Grand Slam event, but as always it is about trying to ride the momentum of the ups and preventing any prolonged downturn to ensure a positive tournament from a personal view.


Grigor Dimitrov-Tommy Paul over 38.5 games: It has been seventeen years since an American Men's player has taken home the US Open crown and for a long time this nation has not really produced someone capable of taking over the baton from the likes of Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras.

Those were the last really great Men's players from the United States and Tommy Paul is part of a new generation of players looking to make an impact at the top of the sport. In the years ahead there may be room for players to win Grand Slams as the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic retire and perhaps leave a void at the top and Tommy Paul is moving up the World Rankings having hit a new high back in March.

The Coronavirus crisis has prevented Paul from really kicking on and he was beaten in the First Round in the tournament held here last week. However, over the last twelve months Tommy Paul has shown he is very comfortable on the hard courts with 82% of his service games being held and finding a break in 28% of return games played.

Tommy Paul's numbers do take a dip when he has faced up against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, especially on the return of serve. That has to be a concern going into this match against Grigor Dimitrov, but Paul will be boosted by the knowledge that he beat the Bulgarian at the Australian Open earlier this year.

With a speedy court likely to be in operation, it might feel like similar conditions to Melbourne Park which may make the upset a real possibility again.

Grigor Dimitrov had a brush with Coronavirus having been infected back in June, but he was in the bubble last week and reached the Second Round. His numbers on the hard courts have not been eye-catching, but Dimitrov has been solid on the surface over the last twelve months with 80% of service games being held and 25% of return games in which he has broken serve.

That should give him the slight edge in the match, but I also am anticipating a close one like we saw at the Australian Open. It would be a huge surprise if either is able to win this one in straight sets and I do think the serving of both gives the other an opportunity to steal sets away.

The Bulgarian did play really well on his way to the US Open Semi Final in 2019, which is another reason to believe he will edge to the win. I am not expecting anything routine about this match though and I will look for the two players to combine together and surpass the total games line set for the match.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 games v Tennys Sandgren: Over the last couple of years Tennys Sandgren has really come out of relative obscurity to put together some strong performances on the ATP Tour. He is once again approaching his career best World Ranking, but Sandgren has to be a little frustrated with the First Round draw at the US Open.

He did reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open earlier this year and missed multiple match points in his loss to Roger Federer, but Sandgren has not really been allowed to get past that thanks to the suspension of the Tour from March. Last week he won a couple of matches here before finding Novak Djokovic too good in the Third Round and that will give Sandgren a boost.

Tennys Sandgren has held 87% of the service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months, but a limited return game will always put him under pressure. The serve does mean the American can be competitive against most opponents he faces, but it will be a part of his game that is going to be tested by Roberto Bautista Agut who reached the Semi Final last week and has long been a solid hard court player.

The lay off may have helped Roberto Bautista Agut who would have been hoping for a longer run at the Australian Open back in January when he was beaten in the Third Round. Over the last twelve months the Spaniard has held 84% of the service games played on this surface, but it is the almost 30% mark of breaking serve which is particularly impressive and makes Bautista Agut a challenge for anyone he faces.

His returning numbers have been stronger in 2020 compared with 2019, although the sample size is much smaller because of the suspension of the Tour. Roberto Bautista Agut might not have been completely happy with his serving last week, but he did break serve in 35% of return games played and I expect that to pose problems even for a server like Tennys Sandgren.

Last week Roberto Bautista Agut will also point out he faced returners of the quality of Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic to drop his hold percentage to 75%, but that kind of returning can't really be expected of the opponent he faces in the First Round. The serve does sometimes make Bautista Agut vulnerable, but I expect that to be more of an issue the deeper he goes in the US Open over the next few days.

In this one I can see the pressure begin to grind down Tennys Sandgren who was beaten in the Third Round here last year by Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. While the American will be happier on what is expected to be a fast court, I think Roberto Bautista Agut will create the break points to move into a position to cover this mark even if he needs four sets to eventually book his place in the Second Round.


Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 games v Kim Clijsters: A few years have passed since Kim Clijsters was not only playing on Tour, but amongst the favourites to win any tournament she enters. She is a former three time Champion at the US Open including winning the tournament during her first and second spells on the Tour and the Belgian made it clear at the end of 2019 that she felt ready to return and compete in 2020.

Like for many people, 2020 has not gone anything like as planned for Kim Clijsters who delayed her return to the Tour and was beaten twice against some of the better players on the WTA Tour in her first two matches since returning from her second retirement. Injuries and the suspension of the Tour have meant Kim Clijsters has not been able to play since March and you do have to wonder if the prices for this match have something to do with her past level of performance rather than where Clijsters is now.

She has always been a very strong hard court player and four Grand Slam titles at either the Australian Open or US Open will back that up. However there has been eight years that have passed since Clijsters was last on the Tour and much will depend on how the younger players she meets cope with the sense of occasion of playing a legend.

Ekaterina Alexandrova would have only been 18 years old when Kim Clijsters last retired at the end of the 2012 season, but this is an improving player on the Tour aiming to reach a career best World Ranking at the end of what has been a miserable year for so many.

Last week Ekaterina Alexandrova reached the Second Round at the tournament being held on these grounds, but over the last twelve months there have been real signs that the Russian is an improving player on the hard courts. The numbers are slightly down in 2020 compared with 2019, but Alexandrova continues to serve effectively and that could be key with the return element of Kim Clijsters' game yet to really fire in the very small sample of matches played earlier this year.

With the Belgian perhaps not at full fitness, the key for Ekaterina Alexandrova is staying with Kim Clijsters in the early moments of the match when the nerves will perhaps been fluttering the hardest. She has to forget what Clijsters has achieved on the court and play the opponent on the other side of the net who has not won a competitive match in eight years and who has just had some issues with her timing.

Over the last twelve months, Alexandrova has won 44% of return points on the hard courts and that may see her edge past Kim Clijsters in this one as long as she is serving to the level she can. We may yet see Clijsters get back to something near the level that she has produced in the past, but the injuries which have delayed her comeback could just see her suffer for some match fitness and Ekaterina Alexandrova is solid enough to come through some difficult moments before gaining control of this First Round match.


Venus Williams + 3.5 games v Karolina Muchova: The best years of her career are most certainly behind Venus Williams who at 40 years old is still trying to compete to the best of her ability.

She begins her latest US Open campaign on Tuesday night on Arthur Ashe and Venus Williams is the underdog having gone 1-2 on the hard courts since the return of the WTA Tour over the last month. Losses to Serena Williams and Dayana Yestremska in three sets shows that Venus Williams is still able to compete for a time, but perhaps doesn't have the stamina to see things out, although her sole win came against Victoria Azarenka who ended last week as the Cincinnati Champion.

That win will give Venus Williams some belief that she is still able to put enough strong tennis together to win matches at this level, although she is facing an opponent who looks to be on the up in her own career in Karolina Muchova.

In 2017 Venus Williams reached the Final at both the Australian Open and Wimbledon and also reached the Semi Final at the US Open, but she has not reached the second week of a Slam since then. Five of the nine Slams played since September 2017 have ended in a First Round defeat for the elder of the Williams sisters and that includes three of the last four Slams she has played.

Over the last twelve months the second serve has become a particular weakness for Venus Williams while the return numbers have also been declining in the last couple of years. That has to be a concern when facing a young and hungry opponent like Karolina Muchova, although the 24 year old from the Czech Republic has had a difficult 2020 on the hard courts.

A longer look at the numbers shows that Muchova has a serve that has to be respected, but is perhaps also struggling on the return of serve which may give Venus Williams a chance of an upset. It certainly makes me believe that the number of games being given to the veteran former two time US Open Champion is perhaps one too many, although the lack of a crowd is certainly going against Williams here.

Karolina Muchova should be a little too solid to avoid the upset, but I would not be surprised if she drops a set and that may be enough for Venus Williams to cover even if the legend is perhaps a faded force these days.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov-Tommy Paul Over 38.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Venus Williams + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dan Evans - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 7-2, + 8.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 49.22% Yield)