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Sunday, 30 August 2020

US Open Tennis Outright Picks and Preview 2020 (August 31-September 13)

Well this feels a little strange...

After several months I am actually writing a Tennis post as what is usually the final Grand Slam of the season is set to go in New York City inside a bubble.

For a long time I honestly did feel this tournament would have to be cancelled as the likes of the French Open and Wimbledon were postponed/cancelled with the pandemic raging around the world particularly disruptive to a sport like this one.

It is one thing asking individuals from a single country to be able to get their sports back underway, but another all together when you think of the global reach of Tennis and having to see players travel in from around the world into each event.

The USTA decided the best way to manage things was to move the Cincinnati Masters inside the bubble created in New York City which means the players involved at the US Open will have been in managed sites for up to three weeks. So far it has largely been a success even if fans being absent is something that is very unfamiliar to many players, while the tournament is being played and completed a couple of weeks before the postponed French Open is set to begin.

That has led to some players deciding they will skip this event and wait for the European clay court events to be played next month, while other players have decided they don't feel safe enough or happy enough to be restricted in a bubble and have also withdrawn.

The US Open is thus without the two defending Champions, while the top of the Women's draw looks wide open with six of the current top ten absent over the next two weeks. Serena Williams is playing as she looks to tie Margaret Court's record of 24 Grand Slam Singles titles, but the veteran has not played well in events leading into this one which will encourage a number of players to believe they have what it takes to take home the title.

Rafael Nadal's absence certainly gives Novak Djokovic a strong chance to win an 18th Grand Slam title as he looks to maintain his unbeaten 2020 (at the time of writing he is in the 'Cincinnati' Semi Final).

Some have spoken about the need to have an asterisk by the tournament, but I tend to lean away from that knowing injuries and other factors are always in play whenever a Slam comes around.

What is harder to work out is how much the long lay offs for many players will have affected their play, while the absence of fans might work to the advantage of some more than others. It is just a part of dealing with a new situation as the Tennis Tour looks to put on some big events before the end of the year despite the Coronavirus crisis showing little sign of abating just yet.

For many players the sport had to return to start making a living again, but standards have to be maintained to keep people safe during a difficult moment of time and so far the US Open has to be commended for being able to do that.


It has been a while like I said, but I will be back making Tennis Picks from this Grand Slam and hopefully that will continue through the remainder of the season. It has a similar feel to January when I tend to have a watching brief leading into the Australian Open as I look to judge how players are feeling, but we do have some recent results on the board in non-exhibition events with the Cincinnati Masters concluded and the WTA running a couple of other tournaments this past month too.

Assuming the calendar will be able to run smoothly between now and December, which is a huge assumption to say the least, there will be some clay events leading into the French Open during the month of September.

We should then have some indoor events later in the year before the Tour Finals for both the ATP and WTA and hopefully it will mean being able to put some positive results on the board to follow from last season.

The US Open has traditionally been the Grand Slam I have had most difficulty in picking because players tend to be pretty jaded by this time of the season, and the New York weather can be difficult to negotiate, but this time there should be a fresher mindset.

Emotionally it can be difficult being in a bubble as the NBA players have spoken about already, but the Tennis players have not been inside nearly as long as the NBA ones have. It is also a tournament format which means the bubble will see half the field leave by the end of the first week and that should allow players to focus and not feel the monotony of the bubble as much as the NBA players have too.


In this post I will have my Outright Preview and any Picks I can find before the US Open begins on Monday. I am hopeful by Sunday evening to have the Day 1 selections available to view, while I am also going to have a wider view of the day's schedule on my Instagram Story on a day by day basis too.

You can follow my Instagram here and you can follow my Twitter here.

Onto the breakdown of the 2020 US Open.


US Open Men's Draw 2020
Rafael Nadal won the US Open twelve months ago in a stunning Final after being pushed the distance by Daniil Medvedev who really announced himself as a potential Grand Slam Champion to the wider population with a strong tournament.

The Spaniard might have been quite confident he could win a 20th Slam title and join Roger Federer with the most in the history of Men's Tennis, but he has decided to stay in Europe stating he didn't feel he could produce his best in the current climate in New York City. I would be surprised if Rafael Nadal is not the favourite to win in Paris yet again when the French Open is played, but his absence along with Roger Federer's seems to open the door for the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic.

Things have not really gone as planned for Novak Djokovic over the last several months with some concerning views entering the public domain- each to their own when it comes to beliefs, but I always think it is dangerous when someone in an influential position perhaps leans towards the more controversial views, especially if they want to speak freely about them.

It became a little worse for Djokovic from a PR perspective when his exhibition tournament saw the players disregard safety protocols and subsequently many of them came down with positive tests for Covid-19.

He has taken something of a battering from his peers as well as fans, but Novak Djokovic could use that to fuel his desire to finish his career with the most Singles Grand Slam titles won by a male player. At this point I wouldn't rule Djokovic out from hitting Margaret Court's record number overall, and the Serb does go into this tournament as a firm favourite after a good showing in the warm up event also being played in New York.

Ignore anything outside of his ability on the court and I do think Novak Djokovic is largely 'draw proof' meaning he will always feel he can get to the business end of any Slam being played no matter who is placed in front of him in the early Rounds.

Without Qualifiers this time around, the draw was always going to be potentially difficult, but I can't see Djokovic having any real problems getting into the second week of the event. Kyle Edmund is a potential threat in the Second Round, but he has not really reached his top level often enough to believe that to be a realistic case, while John Isner is always awkward thanks to the serve.

However it honestly feels like only an injury can prevent Novak Djokovic from winning the First Quarter of the draw and at that point it would be very difficult to beat a player who has not lost a match in 2020 and already added the Australian Open to his growing collection of Grand Slams.

David Goffin, Filip Krajinovic and Denis Shapovalov may all have something to say, but I don't believe Novak Djokovic could have asked for much more from the draw and I do think he will make up one of the Semi Finalists.


The Second Quarter of the draw does feel a little more open with the two top Seeds in the section being Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev- both are clearly quality players, but both are also quite vulnerable at times with some limitations to their tennis showing up when it comes to the best of five Grand Slam setting.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached the Cincinnati Semi Final at the time of writing so is clearly feeling confident, but I have long said he needs to improve the return game if he is going to win a Grand Slam. At some point I do feel that will let him down, but I do feel this draw gives him the chance to build momentum into the tournament.

He is clearly enjoying the current conditions in New York, but his two previous US Open appearances have ended in the Second Round and the First Round. That has to be a concern for those potentially backing him here, but I do think the chance to get through the nervy first couple of Rounds against opponent's Tsitsipas should be seeing off comfortably enough makes him the player to beat in the section.

Borna Coric is a potentially very difficult Third Round opponent, but I like the way things have worked out for Stefanos Tsitsipas.

I do think the Greek star will be the player to beat in the section because I don't trust Alexander Zverev to trust his own second serve for long enough to earn his path through the draw. Even if he does, the German has a poor head to head record against Stefanos Tsitsipas and his path looks fraught with more danger.

Straight away Zverev has to face a former US Open Finalist in Kevin Anderson who has a serve that can help him through matches, although the long lay off might have been more difficult for a player who has been dealing with injuries over the last eighteen months.

Twice Quarter Finalist in New York, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, is another potentially awkward opponent for Alexander Zverev before he gets to the Quarter Final here and I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas can pick someone off in that Round.

I am assuming things will be more straight-forward for Tsitsipas than any opponent he meets in the Quarter Final and he has shown he might be happier in New York without the crowds inside the venue in Flushing Meadows. At odds against I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas could be worth backing to reach his second Grand Slam Semi Final over the next few days.


The standout name in the Third Quarter of the US Open Men's draw is Daniil Medvedev and he will be a popular choice as someone who can go one better than last year and win his first Grand Slam here. The Russian has long looked like a player with all the tools to be successful at this level and I do think he is more than capable of having another strong run in New York.

One aspect that will likely need to be improved is making sure he completes his wins in a little more routine manner so Medvedev is not expending wasted energy early in tournaments. It might be part of the reason that Daniil Medvedev has not been beyond the Fourth Round in any other Grand Slam barring the 2019 US Open.

That record is a slight concern with players like Grigor Dimitrov and Guido Pella in Medvedev's path before he can get into a Quarter Final- both can be dangerous on their day although it does have to be said that neither has really been consistent enough to think they would be able to beat Daniil Medvedev at his best.

The bigger threats in this Quarter of the draw may come from Matteo Berrettini and Andrey Rublev who have reached the Semi Final and Quarter Final respectively at the US Open in the past. Both are improving players and are in the top 20 of the World Rankings and they do look to be on a collision course in the Fourth Round of this year's tournament.

I can see both Berrettini and Rublev being very happy with the way the draw has shaped up before the Fourth Round, although there is a feeling that if they are slightly off their best that they could be vulnerable to an upset too. Andrey Rublev meets Jeremy Chardy in the First Round and the Frenchman can be someone who can be very difficult to knock off on a hard court, while Ugo Humbert is a potentially awkward Second Round opponent for Matteo Berrettini.

With that in mind I do think Daniil Medvedev is the player most likely to come out of this section in what looks to be a 'routine' tournament to this point. All three of the favourites to come out of the sections look good to complete their paths through to the Semi Final, but once again it does have to be said that Medvedev at odds against to win the section is an appealing price.


As I have said, it feels like the favourites may all have too much for their rivals and come out of the first three Quarters of the Men's US Open draw, but the Fourth Quarter looks wide open.

Roberto Bautista Agut and Milos Raonic have both made at least the Semi Final in the warm up event being played in Flushing Meadows last week, Marin Cilic is a former US Open Champion, Dominic Thiem is the World Number 3 and reached the Final on the hard courts at the Australian Open earlier this year, while Felix Auger-Aliassime and Karen Khachanov both have the big games suited to this surface.

And that is all without adding multiple time Grand Slam Champion Andy Murray to the list too.

It is Dominic Thiem who will go into the tournament as the favourite to reach the Semi Final, but I can make a big case for a number of those names mentioned.

Richard Gasquet, Tennys Sandgren and Sam Querrey are other dangerous names in this Quarter of the draw and it is without a doubt the most loaded of the four at the 2020 US Open.

I am writing this preview at a time when the Cincinnati Semi Final matches are being played and the potential Third Round match between Bautista Agut and Raonic could be a huge one. The latter has made the Final in the warm up event to the US Open and the former was good enough to take at least a set from Novak Djokovic which means both men go into the tournament in wonderful form and full of confidence.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise if either was to force their way into the Semi Final, but there is some concern the two players could force the winning one to leave something on the court. A long best of five set match would make it difficult with plenty of difficult challenges all around and picking someone to come out of this Quarter is anything but easy.

Milos Raonic may appeal the most, but he has already had a long week and injuries have yet to be fully behind him.


Once you get to the Semi Final, if things have gone as expected above you would make Novak Djokovic a huge favourite with the experience he has.

I do think Daniil Medvedev and Milos Raonic are interesting players to potentially get behind here too, while it does have to be said that the US Open has thrown up a few more different names as Champions than the other three Grand Slams in this era.

However four of the last five Champions have been either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal and I do think the absence of his biggest rivals will only help the World Number 1 move up to holding 18 Grand Slam titles.

Novak Djokovic looks to be on the weaker side of the draw which should mean he is fresh by the end of the tournament and it feels like he is playing well enough behind serve and return to end the US Open with another title to his name.

The feeling is that the Serb will be able to build up to speed where other rivals might have to have a few more tough matches that will sap some of the energy when we get down to the business end of the tournament. That might be just another factor in helping Novak Djokovic win another Grand Slam and add to the Australian Open crown picked up in what feels like a different world back in January.


The World Number 1 is the main selection from the tournament and I do think Novak Djokovic is only really going to be stopped if he suffers an injury to be truthful.

I will also back Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev to both make the Semi Final as they win the Second and Third Quarters respectively.

Both of those younger players are capable of getting the better of what looks like promising sections, although the inconsistencies at times can make them vulnerable to any opponent who hits some form.

Regardless of that feeling, I do think Tsitsipas and Medvedev are good enough to make their way to the business end of a Grand Slam again, although both may come up short when faced with Novak Djokovic.



US Open Women's Draw 2020
The run to the Final and the success of Bianca Andreescu was wonderful to watch twelve months ago, but it has been a difficult year for the Canadian since then with injuries meaning very little tennis has been played.

The defending Champion will miss the US Open over the next couple of weeks and that means six of the current top ten of the WTA are not going to be involved in the tournament. Over the last couple of years the Women's Grand Slam events have been wide open anyway, but it feels just as difficult picking a winner this time as it has been previously.


It says something that the Number 1 Seed Karolina Pliskova has never won a Grand Slam before, although her best performances have come at the US Open in the past. That may offer her some encouragement as she gets set to begin this tournament, although there is no doubt that the draw could have been kinder for the player from the Czech Republic.

Caroline Garcia and Jennifer Brady are two players that could make up the Second Round and Third Round opponents for Pliskova and neither will be an easy out.

In usual circumstances you may think Angelique Kerber could be a dark horse in the section, but the German has not played much competitive tennis for months and there are some other dangerous floaters in this Quarter of the draw.

Alison Riske, Marketa Vondrousova and Petra Martic are all capable of having a strong run here, although the middle of those three names is perhaps the least suited to the kind of conditions we are expecting to see in Flushing Meadows over the next two weeks.

With a gun to the head I might look at someone like Martic to come through the section, but this is one of the difficulties in picking through the Women's draw with so many uncertainties about the top names. Jennifer Brady is another that could find some positive momentum behind her, but it is certainly a section of the draw where the case can be made for a number of the players.


Naomi Osaka has reached the Final of the event being played on the grounds ahead of the US Open and she will go into this Grand Slam as the joint-favourite to win the tournament. The World Number 10 has been inconsistent, but she has won multiple Slams already and both of those have come on the hard courts here in New York City and in Melbourne.

Her form looks good and Osaka might be motivated further in her position as a role model having made the big decision to force her Semi Final to be postponed last week as she protested the social injustices taking place in the United States.

Some may think that is going to negatively affect a player who has not always been comfortable in the limelight, but Naomi Osaka has grown in the last two years and I do think she is a very dangerous player in this draw.

The draw has not been as kind as it could have been with some dangerous opponents likely to come up very early for Osaka- Camila Giorgi is a potential Second Round opponent and Cori Gauff a potential Third Round opponent which means Naomi Osaka is going to have to find her best form very early on in this tournament.

Other players in this Quarter who will feel the conditions will suit them are Petra Kvitova and Elena Rybakina and I really like the latter of those names. Before the postponement of the Tour Elena Rybakina looked like an improving, dangeorus player and even the early loss last week is not something that should have affected the confidence too much.

However, the Rybakina game is still a little raw at the moment and going for your shots as much as she does means there is always a risk of making too many errors when things are not going as smoothly as they can. That leaves her vulnerable to an upset on a poor day at the office and there are some tough matches in front of Rybakina.

I just hope we get through to the potential Fourth Round match between Elena Rybakina and Petra Kvitova which would be brilliant to watch.


The US Open regularly features some top home hopes and the Third Quarter of the Women's draw has put two former Champions and a former Finalist from the United States together in a small section.

Madison Keys, Serena Williams and Sloane Stephens are all set to go in this Grand Slam, although it is very hard to make a serious case for Stephens who has not really recaptured the magic that took her to the US Open title in 2017.

Both Madison Keys and Serena Williams will have more confidence they can have another deep run in New York City and the latter goes into the tournament as the joint-favourite. However it is hard to be able to back Williams in her current form and the fact that she has just fallen apart at the latter end of a number of Grand Slams with the Margaret Court record number of Singles Slams being in sight.

The absence of so many of the top names from the WTA Tour will help Serena, but she was beaten relatively early in both warm up events played so far and has looked far from her best. Serena Williams does get the chance to warm up in this tournament, but there are some very tough opponents awaiting her down the stretch with Sloane Stephens a potential Third Round opponent and Maria Sakkari or Amanda Anisimova potentially standing in the American's way in the Fourth Round.

Maria Sakkari in particular could be a threat having beaten Serena Williams on these grounds last week and it certainly lessens the appeal of the latter winning the tournament even at a relatively big price.

Instead it could be Madison Keys who takes advantage of the bottom half of this Quarter- she has reached the Fourth Round in five consecutive US Opens and Madison Keys has made the Semi Final and the Final in that time too.

She was beaten early last week, but Keys looks to have been given as kind a draw as you could ask for with the biggest threats likely to come from either Donna Vekic or Garbine Muguruza. Madison Keys can't face either before the Fourth Round and there are already doubts about Muguruza who was close to withdrawing from the tournament before deciding to attend the New York City bubble.

Madison Keys has a strong record against Garbine Muguruza and also has a winning record against Donna Vekic and I think she is the value in this Third Quarter of the draw.

The one concern is that Madison Keys has never beaten Serena Williams, but she could benefit if the 23 time Grand Slam Champion is Knocked Out early in the tournament.


As soon as you pop up the prices for a winner of the Fourth Quarter of the Women's tournament you can see how competitive this section of the draw is going to be.

We have Sofia Kenin, the Australian Open Champion playing back at home.

Johanna Konta, a player who has reached the Quarter Final at every Grand Slam and the Semi Final at the other three outside of the US Open. She also reached the Semi Final at the tournament played on these grounds last week.

Elise Mertens, a Semi Finalist last week and a former Semi Finalist at the Australian Open and Quarter Finalist here at the US Open.

Aryna Sabalenka has long been considered someone capable of making an impact at this level although her form has dropped off from where she was nineteen months ago.

Victoria Azarenka has not rediscovered her form prior to the injury and pregnancy lay offs from the Tour, but she is a two time US Open Finalist and also reached the Final in the warm up event played here in the lead up to the 2020 US Open.

There are other names in this Quarter who could make things very difficult for the eventual Semi Finalist, but all of those mentioned are at single digit prices starting at 5-1.

My lean is towards Elise Mertens who was in fine form last week and has shown more consistency than Victoria Azarenka, while Johanna Konta is someone who has reached Semi Finals at the other Grand Slam events. All three looked good here already and I think the British player may be the best choice, but this Quarter is a huge minefield with dangers lurking around every corner.


It has long been a very difficult task to pick a winner in the Women's Grand Slam events being played. Backing that up is the fact we have eleven different names winning Grand Slams from the last thirteen that have been played with only Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka winning twice in that time.

The Romanian is not in New York City this week, but Naomi Osaka is and is looking in good form to win a second title at the US Open.

However she is in a difficult portion of the draw too and the expectation of being a favourite is perhaps something that Osaka is not always the best at dealing with. There is extra attention on her having moved to the forefront of protesting social injustices from the Tennis world and I do think it could lead to an upset somewhere along the line.

In terms of a potential new winner you do have to look at the likes of Madison Keys, Johanna Konta and Elise Mertens.

The one that appeals the most is Madison Keys even though she is in the same section of the draw as Serena Williams- instead of backing her to win the tournament, I am going to have a small interest on Keys winning the Third Quarter of the draw at a big enough price and that is my sole outright selection from the Women's tournament.

Once again this should be a fun tournament to watch as it develops, but there are a number of names who will feel there is an opportunity to win a Slam in front of them.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic to Win @ 1.80 Paddy Power (5 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas to Win Second Quarter @ 2.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev to Win Third Quarter @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Madison Keys to Win Third Quarter @ 7.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

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