US Open Day 1 Tennis Picks 2020 (August 31st)

The second Grand Slam event of the Tennis season begins on Monday and it is the strange circumstances hurting the world which means that event is being played in New York City and not Paris as it would have in previous years.

It also means there has been almost seven months since the first Slam of the 2020 season was placed in the books.

There are a couple of concerns out of the news that one of the players inside the New York bubble has tested positive for Coronavirus, especially as he would have had close contact with a number of other players that are still going to be allowed to compete. Any outbreak would surely mean the US Open has to be scrapped and this is an issue that has to be considered in the days ahead as further testing is completed.


You can read my Outright Preview and Picks from the US Open here.

And now onto the Day 1 Picks from the opening First Round matches to be played in New York City with all live coverage set to be broadcasted by Amazon Prime to those of us in the United Kingdom.


Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Kevin Anderson: This is the first time these two players are meeting on the Tour since 2018 when playing in the Laver Cup and the first time they are facing each other in a tournament since 2017. The head to head does not make for pleasant reading for Kevin Anderson who has lost all five previous matches against Alexander Zverev and who has been hurt by injuries in the last twenty months.

Neither had a good showing at the Cincinnati Masters which was held on this ground last week, while the slower courts that are expected on Arthur Ashe and Louis Armstrong, two courts not used last week, should only aid the favourite in this match.

It has not been a great 2020 for Alexander Zverev with a poor 6-6 record on the hard courts, but also facing a bit of a public backlash for not self-isolating after taking part in an infamous exhibition event hosted by Novak Djokovic that produced a number of positive tests. He did reach the Semi Final at the Australian Open earlier this year though and over the last twelve months he has held 82% of the service games played on the hard courts.

The second serve has been vulnerable at times and that was evident in his surprising loss to Andy Murray last week, but Zverev will know he is facing what is largely a limited returner in the tall South African.

Kevin Anderson still has a booming serve, but he has had injury problems and that means he is 4-4 on the hard courts in 2020 and has held 80% of service games played. That puts additional pressure on the return of serve, but Anderson has only managed to break serve in 15% of return games played.

I do think Zverev can get enough balls back in play to challenge the Anderson serve considering he has broken in 22% of return games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months. In their three main Tour hard court matches, Alexander Zverev has broken serve in 21% of return games played against Kevin Anderson while his opponent has been restricted to just under 9% and I expect there to be a real difference in the break success in this First Round match.

Alexander Zverev has improved as a returner since last facing Kevin Anderson on the hard courts in a main Tour match and I think that will show up in this match as he moves through in three or four sets.


Steve Johnson-John Isner over 42.5 games: Two American players meet in the First Round at the US Open on Monday and this feels like a match that could go very long if Steve Johnson and John Isner are serving anywhere near the levels they can reach.

The faster courts outside of the main show courts will only help Johnson and Isner when it comes to facing an opponent who have struggled with their return of serve.

At first glance you do have to like the chances of the underdog Steve Johnson who holds a head to head lead over John Isner and has won the last four matches they have competed against each other. That includes three wins in a row on the hard courts, although their last meeting came in the United States on a clay court in Houston in April 2018.

Some strong performances on the hard courts at Challenger level have really boosted the Steve Johnson numbers on this surface in 2020. However, Johnson has a losing record on the main ATP events played on the hard courts and over the last twelve months he has only managed to hold 75% of service games played on the surface in those events.

That is a number that won't help Steve Johnson here, although I am not convinced John Isner has the return game to challenge that serve. In the last twelve months his break percentage is at 7% from return games played and I do think Isner is going to have to rely on some strong tie-break performances to get the better of an opponent who has won the big points in recent meetings between these two.

John Isner looks to have the more capable serve, which is not a major surprise, although there have been some signs of a decline in his levels over the last two years. At 35 years old it is perhaps to be expected, although Isner is still holding almost 94% of service games played on this surface.

Both should appreciate the conditions when it comes to the serve and my feeling is that this going to be a match that features at least four tight, competitive sets. Seeing at least two tie-breakers would not be a major surprise and I do think it could lead to a match that comfortably surpasses this total games line set.

I am perhaps more concerned with the way Steve Johnson has been serving, but the faster courts and the limited returner in front of him should see him rattle through his service games. Hopefully the first two sets are split one apiece to just ease any momentum going too far in one player's favour and that should then mean this number of games is one that can be surpassed by the two.


Filip Krajinovic - 6.5 games v Mikael Ymer: Things have changed on the Tennis Tour over recent years which means we are perhaps not seeing players break through on the ATP Tour at a young age as what used to happen.

Instead some players begin to peak deep into their 20s and that is the case for Filip Krajinovic who is likely to end the US Open at a new career high World Ranking and perhaps moving inside the top 20 in the World.

He reached the Quarter Final on these grounds last week and was very unfortunate to lose to Milos Raonic, the eventual Runner Up. Over the last twelve months Krajinovic has put together some strong results on the hard courts where he has managed to hold 80% of his service games played and broken in 26% of return games.

Those are solid numbers and the run here last week will have given Filip Krajinovic some confidence as he prepares to open his US Open campaign against Mikael Ymer.

Mikael Ymer found himself beaten in the First Qualifying Round last week, but he has shown he can be a tough nut to crack thanks to some decent returning numbers on the hard courts at the main ATP level over the last twelve months. He pushed Karen Khachanov all the way in a five set loss at the Australian Open and Mikael Ymer will believe he can challenge the Filip Krajinovic serve even though he was on the wrong end of a hammering by this opponent earlier in 2020.

One match isn't enough of an indication as to how this one will go and I do think there will be a few breaks of serve both ways, but ultimately the Filip Krajinovic serve is the stronger of the two heading onto the court. That could be the difference and I would not be surprised if Krajinovic is able to win one set with a couple of breaks of serve advantage which could set him well on the way to covering this handicap in the First Round.

It should be a fun match while it lasts, but I like the favourite in this one.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson-John Isner Over 42.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Cori Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)