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Saturday, 12 September 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (September 12-14)

I always felt the six weeks between the end of the 2019/20 Premier League season and the start of the 2020/21 would fly by, but even then the new season has snuck up on me in the same way the NFL season has done.

With the European competitions being completed in August, it did mean the Premier League offered Manchester City and Manchester United the chance to have an extra week to prepare for the season and that means those two teams along with Burnley and Aston Villa are not going to be in action this weekend.

Even then, there are eight Premier League matches to come this week and, importantly, the Fantasy Football Game is back with GW1 ready to go.

I have a few thoughts about the opening week of the season which you can read below once I put down my thoughts as to how the weekend Premier League games will go.


Fulham v Arsenal Pick: After a very short off-season the Premier League is back in action on Saturday as Arsenal make a relatively short trip across London to take on newly-promoted Fulham at Craven Cottage.

Both of these clubs enjoyed plenty of success at Wembley Stadium last month as Fulham earned their spot in the top flight through the Play Off Final just days after Arsenal won the FA Cup. The Gunners have also won the Community Shield in the national Stadium a couple of weeks ago and the Mikel Arteta era is beginning to take shape with some interesting signings made.

A couple of youngsters may take over in key defensive positions, but keeping Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang looks to have been the crucial piece of business done this off-season. Signing Willian will give the squad some experience too and Arsenal have produced some big results under their Spanish manager.

However there are some questions about a team that only won 4 of 19 away Premier League games last season. The Gunners have to be much stronger than that if they are going to bridge the 10 point gap that existed at the end of last season between Arsenal and the Champions League spots and the improvement has to be shown right at the beginning of the 2020/21 campaign.

I do think Arsenal have the attacking players to make hay at Craven Cottage where they have enjoyed visiting in recent times. There are a number of members of the squad who would have been involved in the 1-5 win on this ground a little under two years ago and I do think Fulham have a squad that looks short of the quality needed to survive, at least at this point.

Scott Parker will believe he has the time to still bring in the players that can make the difference for Fulham, but I do think they will find it difficult to contain a team like Arsenal who have pace and quality in the final third.

You do have to wonder how players will cope with what has been a very short time between seasons, but both of these groups should come into the fixture with confidence. I think that could produce a decent game of football even without the fans and I believe that Arsenal will edge a high-scoring fixture.

Fulham were decent here in the Championship, but the step up in class is likely going to be telling for much of the season barring some real quality being signed before the end of the transfer window. Any signings to be made might be accelerated forward if Fulham struggle on Saturday and I do think Arsenal win a fixture featuring at least two goals.


Crystal Palace v Southampton Pick: These two teams are both trendy picks for the new Premier League season- the form shown since the resumption of play means plenty are tipping up Crystal Palace for relegation and Southampton for a top half finish and perhaps even a push for Europe.

Roy Hodgson is a very strong manager and he will extract all he can from the Crystal Palace squad, but much is going to depend on whether he can find a consistent path to goal from somewhere. That is never easy, but Crystal Palace have signed players to try and produce in the final third, although the key for the club is holding onto Wilfried Zaha if possible.

Zaha has been linked with a move away and while the transfer window is open there is going to be a fear that he will finally get his wish.

That uncertainty won't help the Crystal Palace squad which had lost 7 straight Premier League games before a 1-1 draw with Tottenham Hotspur. Now they have to take on a Southampton team who had the 4th best record in the Premier League after the three month suspension of the season came to an end.

Southampton have not really strengthened the squad as much as they would have liked, but there is quality available to Ralph Hasenhuttl. The Austrian manager has gotten plenty out of his players in the squad and a rejuvenated Danny Ings provides the end product to the strong football played by The Saints.

This is a team that have loved playing away from home with 9 wins from 19 games on their travels in the League and Southampton have won 3 in a row on this ground. The injuries at the back will make Crystal Palace vulnerable to the upset here and there are plenty backing Southampton to secure the three points here.

It is early in the season though and I do think Crystal Palace are a team that need to be respected thanks to a manager who will make it hard to break his team down. However, I do believe Southampton could have a very good season and I will get behind them on the Asian Handicap which will return the stake in the event of a draw.


Liverpool v Leeds United Pick: It wasn't much fun being a Manchester United fan in a season in which Liverpool and Leeds United had as much success as they did and both clubs will believe they can follow on the 2019/20 campaign with a successful 2020/21.

Liverpool can go into the season as English Champions for the first time in thirty years and they will host Leeds United who have had sixteen years outside of the top flight.

While the hosts will be looking to repeat, the expectation around Leeds United means the fans are hoping to do more than merely survive at this level. With Marcelo Bielsa in charge there is a feeling that Leeds United could even push for a top half finish, but much is going to depend on Rodrigo and whether he has the goals to push Leeds United forward.

This is a very big test for Leeds United against a very good Liverpool team who were not playing as poorly as the results would suggest back in June and July. There was a slight drop off in intensity, but Liverpool were still creating chances and their front three should be rested and ready to compete in this opening weekend fixture.

The absence of Jordan Henderson hurt the side more than expected though and he looks like he could be missing for this fixture. That will offer Leeds United encouragement as will playing in front of an empty Anfield, but even then there is a big step up of class for the visitors to deal with.

We know Bielsa will have Leeds United very well prepared, and that does make them dangerous, but I think Liverpool will be ready to show that the end of last season was just a blip and not an extended issue for the squad to deal with. It should be a good football match with both looking to get forward and cause problems for the opponent, but Liverpool should have a little too much quality when all is said and done.


West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: Two clubs with fan bases who can sometimes have unrealistic expectations meet on the opening weekend of the 2020/21 Premier League season- both David Moyes and Steve Bruce will likely snap your hand off if you gave West Ham United and Newcastle United a 17th place finish at the end of this campaign, but fans expect the clubs to be operating much higher up the League table.

Mike Ashley was almost finally out of the club, but Newcastle United remain in his control and that means another difficult season is likely in front of the club. Steve Bruce did a fine job for the club last season, but his football is not always appreciated and Bruce has yet to truly win over the fans.

David Moyes is another manager whose football is not always appreciated, but his West Ham United team did end last season in fine form and that will be encouraging to him.

However, things are clearly not going smoothly at the London Stadium judging by captain Mark Noble making his feelings known about the sale of Grady Diangana. Bids have been made to improve the squad, but at the moment West Ham United are going into the new season with what they have.

That is a slight concern for the fans, but West Ham United do have some quality players in the squad who have perhaps underachieved. If Moyes can get those performing to the level they can reach, then West Ham United should feel good about their chances when it comes to avoiding the drop to the Championship.

Newcastle United have had a decent window and bringing in the likes of Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson are decent signings on the budget on which they are operating. Last season Steve Bruce showed he can make his team more than the sum of their parts and there is some pace and quality in the final third which could cause problems for opponents.

However, the defence is vulnerable and even more so without Martin Dubravka keeping goal and I think that is where the home team might have the narrow edge. West Ham United should have won at St James' Park back in July having twice led on the day, and I think being at home will give them more of an opportunity even without the fans in attendance.

It is the first game of the season though and opening weekend results can be a little eye-catching. The home team should be good enough to earn the points here, but the Asian Handicap may be the best approach to this fixture.


West Brom v Leicester City Pick: The first 'Super Sunday' Premier League fixture of the season comes from The Hawthorns as newly-promoted West Brom host Leicester City.

Slaven Bilic's men almost backed their way back into the Premier League from the Championship having failed to win any of their last 4 games to give the likes of Brentford and Fulham an opportunity. That does mean the team perhaps does not come into the new season with the same kind of momentum as some other promoted clubs do, while West Brom still need to address the main problem of looking like a squad that does not have enough goals in them.

Being at home should give West Brom a chance to get off to a good start, but we are still without fans and this Leicester City do have quality despite their poor end to the 2019/20 campaign.

The 3 losses in their last 5 Premier League games means Leicester City missed out on a return to the Champions League, but Brendan Rodgers will have been reminding his squad that they achieved their goal of returning to European Football. The absence of James Maddison did hurt Leicester City down the stretch, but the England international may not be available this weekend either and that is a concern.

Leicester City have not won any of their last 8 away games in all competitions but they were playing better than the results would suggest. There looks to be a continuity with the squad that should see them have another decent campaign even though Ben Chilwell has been moved on, and I think Leicester City do have more goals in their squad than West Brom.

Neither team ended the last season in the manner they would have wanted, but a new campaign comes with new hopes and dreams and I think Leicester City will edge to the three points at The Hawthorns.


Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Pick: Both Jose Mourinho and Carlo Ancelotti are shaping their respective Tottenham Hotspur and Everton squads up to their liking and that does mean there is a greater sense of expectation around them.

After missing out on the Champions League, Tottenham Hotspur have to be looking to push their way back in alongside the elite of European Football, while Everton will be hoping to be the 'best of the rest' and challenge for silverware and a return to any European competition.

There is an excitement around both squads with some of the new faces arriving to freshen things up and I do think we could see a decent game on Sunday afternoon. The short turnaround between seasons is going to be a challenge for every club to deal with, but it may also mean some of the players can get off and running quicker than they may do in usual seasons.

When these teams met after the resumption of the Premier League it was a very poor game of football that ended 1-0 in favour of Tottenham Hotspur. However, the home team look in a healthier place now and Everton have brought in some quality that could make them much more competitive even against the better teams in the Premier League.

The midfield reinforcements should offer a lot more protection for Everton this season and I do think James Rodriguez will add some quality to the forward line along with Richarlison. However new signings can take time to bed in and that is where Tottenham Hotspur have a little more continuity in their squad that can see them edge to the points here.

It should be a much better game than the one we saw here in early July, but Tottenham Hotspur managed to do enough to earn the three points on that occasion and I think they can do the same here. With a fully fit squad to choose from, Jose Mourinho can lead his team to a good start to the season and the fixtures over the coming weeks are certainly in Tottenham Hotspur's favour too.


Sheffield United v Wolves Pick: It was a game of limited chances when Sheffield United hosted Wolves in early July and I do think we could see something similar when they meet on the opening weekend of the new Premier League season.

Chris Wilder and Nuno Espirito Santo have to be given a lot of credit for the organisation of their respective teams and they won't have moved too far away from their principles.

I do think the loss of Dean Henderson will hurt Sheffield United as Aaron Ramsdale is simply not the same level of goalkeeper and that may make The Blades a little more vulnerable. However, Wolves are coming in off a long season and the squad is missing key players having sold Matt Doherty and lost Jonny to a long-term injury.

Both clubs are not going to be lacking for effort, but creating chances against the other is going to be a difficult challenge. I do think both Sheffield United and Wolves could be dangerous from set piece situations and that might be the best way to break open this fixture, but chances may be difficult to come by in open play and that could mean goals are at a premium.

We saw a couple of tight and competitive fixtures when these two teams met in the League last season and I do think we will see more of the same. There was a more open feel to the fixture at Molineux, but I imagine this one to follow the patter of the fixture played at Bramall Lane in early July and that is both teams looking to be well organised and hard to break down.

The layers have shortened the price of one, or both, of these teams failing to score on Monday, but it may still be the best way to approach the fixture. Some may want the small interest in a 1-1 correct score to cover the selection as that looks the most likely score if both teams do find the net.


Brighton v Chelsea Pick: The final game of the opening weekend of the Premier League comes from the Amex Stadium where Brighton and Chelsea actually played a friendly in front of a limited crowd in the last couple of weeks.

This time there will be no fans inside the Stadium and I do think the new look Chelsea team might have too much attacking threat for their hosts to cope with.

That is no disrespect to Brighton, but Graham Potter's style does mean they are a little more open and they simply do not score the same amount of goals as those teams at the top. Since the resumption of the Premier League Brighton have lost home games to Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City and they conceded at least three times in each of those defeats.

Now they have to face another team that finished inside the top four of the Premier League table and the only real doubt around Chelsea is how quickly some of the talented players they have purchased will settle in. I don't doubt Ben Chilwell, but the likes of Timo Werner and Kai Havertz are coming in from outside of England and it can be an eye-opening experience for youngsters that have not dealt with this League before.

Even then I do think Werner and Havertz will have a big impact on this Chelsea squad, while the return of Christian Pulisic is a huge boost for Frank Lampard. The American looked to playing at a very high level before an injury in the FA Cup Final, but he is not expected to miss time and looks to be a key threat for Chelsea who will provide the chances for Werner.

A deeper looking squad should have too much attacking intent for Brighton who will try and get forward. They might even have some success against this Chelsea backline which will look similar to the one that started games last season, but I would think Frank Lampard's men will find their way into the final third effectively and can eventually break down Brighton.

The fixture here did end 1-1 last season, and Brighton played well on the day. However, I think this Chelsea team is much improved and I believe they win fairly comfortably ahead of a big League game against Liverpool to come next weekend.

MY PICKS: Arsenal & Over 1.5 Goals
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur
Sheffield United-Wolves Both Teams to Score- NO
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 1
Unbelievably we are just hours away from the Official Fantasy Football game to be live once again with GameWeek 1 of the competition starting on Saturday.

The season is scheduled to be a very tight one which means it is going to be difficult to manage our Fantasy squads as much as it is going to be for the managers in reality. Through to the end of January it feels like the top clubs will be playing twice a week barring the international breaks in October and November and that is likely going to mean heavy rotation especially as the vote came back to restore the maximum of three substitutions per game rather than the five subs that were allowed following the resumption of the Premier League in June.

While I am planning on keeping my main chips in hand until the second half of the season when they can have the biggest impact, I do think there is a chance that my first Wild Card of the season will be used sooner rather than later.

That is mainly down to the fact that the likes of Manchester United and Manchester City are not in action on the first weekend and they have some very good looking assets that would usually have been part of the squad.

At this stage I don't think it would surprise anyone to learn that I am still making vast changes to my squad, but I will say there are four names that I would think are almost certainly going to be selected in Week 1.

Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Timo Werner are those names and I do think it would take a real change in my approach to see any of those dropped with the deadline just hours away.

Teams I do think are worth getting behind early in the season are Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Southampton and I would love to get through the early weeks without taking a hit to my total.

Chelsea are another team that look to be benefiting from their early fixture list, but like many I think I will be looking at various options right up until the 11am deadline.

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