We are down to the final few days of what has turned out to be the second Grand Slam of the season, but preparation is already beginning for the third Slam of 2020 at the French Open which begins later this month.
The authorities have decided they are going to allow just under 13,000 spectators into the grounds on a daily basis and that means some players have been having second thoughts about whether they are going to head to Paris. Serena Williams is one of the big names questioning her involvement, but the tournament has already lost Ashleigh Barty who is the defending Champion.
The Australian feels underprepared and not in a comfortable position to travel to Europe for the clay court events which have begun this week in Istanbul and Kitzbuhel with three weeks to go before Roland Garros gets underway.
You can't blame Barty and at the end of the day there are sure to be other players who feel they would be compromising their health by taking part in tournaments, especially as it feels like the 'bubble' in Europe nothing like the one the USTA have been using in New York City.
Before I really get into the clay court events leading up to the French Open we do have to finish off the week at the US Open and the Quarter Final matches in the top half of both the Men's and Women's draws.
The default suffered by Novak Djokovic has really opened up the Men's draw and you could make a case for a number of names, while this is an opportunity to pick up a Grand Slam which could spark a career. The Women's draw is also looking like one which could be won by any of the players still involved in the tournament and I am looking forward to the end of the event in New York City before the Tour shifts attention to the European clay courts.
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Borna Coric: Both Alexander Zverev and Borna Coric have a lot of potential and have been tipped up as future Grand Slam Champions as they look to make the impact on the biggest stage for the first time. Neither player has really performed as they would have liked at Grand Slam level with this being Zverev's fourth Quarter Final and Coric's first.
Neither player has reached this stage at the US Open before so I do think there will be some nerves out there, although Alexander Zverev did reach the Semi Final of a Grand Slam for the first time back in January at the Australian Open. That run has to give the German confidence, while he has looked like a player improving in each passing Round and looking to peak towards the end of the tournament here at Flushing Meadows.
The draw has been kind to Zverev so far with the highest Ranked opponent he has beaten being Adrian Mannarino at Number 39 in the World. Even then you have to credit someone who has been serving well, but also picking up his level when it comes to the return which is key on this surface.
Alexander Zverev will know he has be a little better behind the serve as he takes on the highest Ranked player he will have faced at this tournament, but the confidence has to be in a good place. He has also not exerted too much effort through the first four Rounds as Zverev has tended to do at Grand Slam events in the past when making a deep run and that should also mean he comes into the match with some freshness about him.
He is likely going to need all of his stamina in a match against Borna Coric who produced his best performance in the Fourth Round having somehow escaped defeat in the Third Round against Stefanos Tsitsipas. On that day Coric saved six match points and he may feel there is a touch of destiny about his run at the US Open, although there has been plenty of time spent on the court already and the Croatian player has also needed some fortune to move through a couple of matches.
Before this run in New York City, Borna Coric has shown some vulnerability on the hard courts over the previous twelve months and I do think his serve is one that Alexander Zverev can get into.
Borna Coric does hold a 3-1 head to head lead over Alexander Zverev, which includes being 2-1 on the hard courts and a win over him in four sets at the US Open. However their most recent match on a hard court came in March 2018 and ended in a comfortable two set win for the tall German, while it is also Zverev who has created the majority of the break points in their last two matches on this surface.
I don't think it will be an easy match for Zverev, but I do think he has the better experience and has looked to be in better form through the tournament and over the last several months on a hard court. Stefanos Tsitsipas should have beaten Borna Coric in the Third Round, but I don't think Alexander Zverev lets him off the hook here and I will look for him to win the match in three or four sets and have the opportunities to cover a big mark.
Pablo Carreno Busta v Denis Shapovalov: The US Open and the rest of the Tennis world are still trying to digest the news about Novak Djokovic and his embarrassing defaulting from the tournament which saw him exit in the Fourth Round. The 17 time Grand Slam Champion and the World Number 1 was a clear favourite to win the tournament, but one poor decision has proven to be very costly and opened the rest of the draw up for the remaining eight players.
The one who arguably benefited the most is Pablo Carreno Busta who might have been about to serve for the first set, but was still a heavy underdog in their Fourth Round match two days ago. It will be interesting to see how the Spaniard has coped with the unbelievable way the match ended, but this is a player who has previously reached the Semi Final at the US Open and also been a Quarter Finalist at the French Open so experiencing the latter stage of a Slam should not be an issue for Pablo Carreno Busta.
He had been playing well in the previous two Rounds and while we can't read a lot into the last match, Pablo Carreno Busta has to be full of confidence ahead of this Quarter Final. Pablo Carreno Busta might have needed five sets go get through the First Round, but he looked very good in the next two matches and also holds a mental advantage over this opponent.
Denis Shapovalov comes into the match as the favourite and he reached the Fourth Round at the US Open in 2017 in his first appearance here. However, the Canadian has not been beyond the Third Round in any Grand Slam event since then and Shapovalov did not come into the US Open with the suggestion he was ready to make the second week of the tournament.
The return of serve had really been letting him down on the hard courts, but Shapovalov has largely looked better on that side of his game in this tournament. He also needed five sets to come through one match here, but Denis Shapovalov played well in the last Round and the win over David Goffin and will need that kind of level again to beat Pablo Carreno Busta.
It is the Spaniard who has a 3-1 head to head lead and that includes a straight sets win at the US Open in 2017. Surprisingly the one win for Denis Shapovalov came on the clay courts, but Pablo Carreno Busta has won all three previous hard court matches including both played in 2019.
Pablo Carreno Busta has been stronger behind serve in those hard court matches and I do think he may have a narrow edge in this one thanks to his ability on the return. It certainly makes Carreno Busta an interesting underdog and the slower night conditions can only aid him even though the one defeat to Shapovalov came on the clay courts.
I certainly do think the Spaniard has a better chance than the layers may believe and he looks to be worth backing here. He has a decent record against Denis Shapovalov and over the last twelve months there hasn't been that much between them on the hard courts. In fact you may be hard pressed to argue that Pablo Carreno Busta hasn't been the slightly better of the two players on this surface and I will look for him to edge to the win here.
Jennifer Brady - 4.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: With six of the top ten in the Women's World Rankings missing the US Open there was always going to be an opportunity for one or two surprise names to make the business end of the tournament.
Not many would have picked Jennifer Brady versus Yulia Putintseva to be a US Open Quarter Final before the pandemic saw the suspension of the Tour, while there would have been some doubts about these two ahead of this tournament.
Jennifer Brady has not been beyond the Second Round at a Grand Slam since September 2017 when reaching the Fourth Round at the US Open and she is playing in her first Grand Slam Quarter Final on Tuesday. That is going to bring some pressure, but over the last month Brady has won the title in Lexington behind some very strong form and she has looked to be playing with real confidence and belief throughout the first four matches here.
The American has been serving well, but the real eye-catching numbers is her dominance on the return and it is no surprise that Brady has not dropped more than five games in a single match in her run to the Quarter Final. She has played the big points well on her serve and Brady has created at least ten break points in three of the four matches while breaking serve at least three times in each match inside Flushing Meadows.
Going into the tournament Jennifer Brady had won 49% of return points played in the ten matches she completed before the US Open began. That is impressive and she is certainly going to feel she can hurt Yulia Putintseva who had lost early in the tournaments played under the Lexington and Cincinnati banners.
The Russian has not won more than 61% of service points played in any of her first four matches and her last two opponents have broken the Putintseva serve four times each time. However it is the Yulia Putintseva return which has helped her manage her way through to the Quarter Final, although she was very fortunate to beat Petra Martic in the Fourth Round.
Yulia Putintseva could have more success than others against the Jennifer Brady serve, but I do think she will be under pressure to look after her own serve. She has beaten Brady in their two previous matches and one took place on the hard courts, although these two are playing each other for the first time in over two years.
I do respect the return game of Putintseva and the confidence she seems to have in the draw, but Jennifer Brady is playing at an elite level over the last month and I think that will be enough to see things go in her favour. At times Jennifer Brady may find it hard to hit through Yulia Putintseva, but eventually I think she will begin to crack through and produce a good looking win in this Quarter Final.
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Shelby Rogers: At the start of the tournament I was wondering whether Naomi Osaka was fully ready to compete at the US Open, but she looks healthy and has been largely dominant in the first four matches here. I would make Osaka the favourite to win the title having won the Australian Open and US Open previously, but she will have to make sure she is not thinking too far ahead.
So far Naomi Osaka has not only contained her focus on the court, but she has remained a leading figure of the tennis world when it comes to highlighting social injustices and I have to credit the levels being produced.
The serve has been dominant and Osaka has been able to have plenty of success off the return which is going to put pressure on Shelby Rogers in this Quarter Final. Surprisingly this is not the first Quarter Final Rogers has played at Grand Slam level and even more of a surprise is that the previous one came at the French Open on the clay courts.
The American somehow managed to see off Petra Kvitova in the Fourth Round having never been beyond the Third Round at either the US Open or the Australian Open in the past. Shelby Rogers wasn't exactly showing off great form in the two tournaments played before the US Open began, but she was playing well in her first three matches here before looking second best for large portions of the win over Petra Kvitova.
The return was a real struggle for Rogers in the Fourth Round and it is not going to be any easier against Naomi Osaka who has only dropped serve three times in four matches. The former World Number 1 was dominant in the Fourth Round and only a couple of lapses of concentration has seen her drop a couple of sets in the first four matches here.
Shelby Rogers has a serve that has to be respected when at her top form, but I would suggest that Naomi Osaka is a better returner than Petra Kvitova who won 41% of return points and created fourteen break points in the last Round. I expect the favourite to put Rogers under pressure from the off in this one with her own serve being a potent weapon and Naomi Osaka can edge a little closer to trying to win her third Grand Slam title.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 2.62 Bet Fred (1.5 Units)
Jennifer Brady - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 36-32, - 1.64 Units (136 Units Staked, - 1.21% Yield)
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