It was something of a frustrating day on Day 2 at the US Open for the Tennis Picks with a couple of matches going against the selections by a point or two.
Even then at one point it looked like being a really bad day, but fortunately some late matches came down the way I wanted and that at least means there is a profit out of the First Round.
On Wednesday we move onto the Second Round and the good news is that the four Outright selections are all still involved in the tournament. All four were fairly comfortable winners in the First Round, although the competition is going to get tougher and tougher the deeper we go into the second Grand Slam of the 2020 season.
That comment is not going to surprise anyone, but the two Outright selections playing on Wednesday are both strong favourites to progress and I would expect them to move through. However neither is going to be in my selections for the day as they are being asked to cover too many games in my opinion, but not too many to make their opponents appealing either.
Instead you can read the Day 3 selections below with some analysis and others placed in the Picks section. It is supposedly going to be a wet day in Flushing Meadows so there could be a couple of rain delays that may change the momentum for some players, although those playing on Arthur Ashe and Louis Armstrong will be grateful for the roof that means minimal disruption even if the expected rain arrives in the mid-afternoon.
Hopefully this is going to be a bounce back day from Tuesday.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Kateryna Kozlova: The First Round draw at the US Open could not have been a much better one for Kateryna Kozlova who was paired up with an opponent Ranked outside the top 100. A straight sets victory followed for the World Number 99, but Kozlova will have to raise her level significantly when she takes on a multiple time Grand Slam Champion on the main show court in New York City.
The Ukrainian would have been pretty happy with her overall performance on Monday, but the numbers indicate that Kozlova struggles when facing the better players on the Tour on the hard courts. She has a losing record against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface and over the last twelve months Kozlova is just 3-7 in those matches on hard courts while struggling to hold serve.
Now she has to face Petra Kvitova who was looking very strong in her First Round win over Irina Camelia Begu and looked to be serving very well. The suggestion from the players is that Arthur Ashe Court is perhaps not playing as quick as some of those outside at Flushing Meadows, but even then Petra Kvitova has to be confident she can use her serve to keep the pressure on an opponent who perhaps is not able to protect her own serve as effectively.
Sometimes you can look at the Kvitova return and think there is a high risk-high reward approach which has little margin for error, but over the last twelve months she has won 44% of return points played on the hard courts. That number doesn't change much when only looking at her matches against players Ranked outside the top 50, but Petra Kvitova's serve has been dominant and her 7-0 record on the hard courts against those players have seen her win plenty of matches comfortably.
I do have to respect the fact that Kateryna Kozlova has played competitively when facing top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts through her career. She has been beaten in all seven of those previous occasions, but she would have gotten within this mark set for this match in the previous five of those.
However I do think Petra Kvitova is going to find a few breaks of serve in this one if she is maintaining her levels and that is going to be make it difficult for Kozlova. It would mean she is needing to find a way to get into the Kvitova service games and find some breaks too, but that looks like a difficult challenge on this surface against the Czech lefty playing at her current level.
It is a big number if Kateryna Kozlova is feeling at her best, but over the last twelve months we have not seen enough of that. Last week she was blown away by Laura Siegemund and I think Petra Kvitova is going to be too strong and can work her way into a position to comfortably progress to the Third Round.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Anna-Lena Friedsam: It looked like a difficult draw on paper for Angelique Kerber especially as she had not played a competitive match since losing in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open back in January. However the former US Open Champion showed plenty of ability in winning her match in straight sets and Kerber could have made things a little easier on the scoreboard if she had served out the match at 5-2 in the second set.
Even with the slight blip which allowed Alja Tomljanovic to get back into the match, the German has to be very happy with her level as she gets set to take on compatriot Anna-Lena Friedsam.
The latter lost in the First Qualifying Round at the tournaments in Prague and the one played here last week, but Anna-Lena Friedsam was a comfortable winner in the First Round at the US Open. That came against one of the few players in the draw that are Ranked lower than Friedsam, but her levels over the last month don't seem to be in a place where she can upset someone with a much higher profile in their homeland.
Angelique Kerber has won the two previous matches between the players including a comfortable First Round win at the Australian Open in January 2018. In those previous matches it is the Kerber return which has done the significant damage and she looked to have her eye in during her First Round win which is going to be a problem for Friedsam to cope with.
I do have to accept that Friedsam can be an awkward customer when she gets some momentum behind her and over the last twelve months she does have a 2-2 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts.
However there is a mental edge with Kerber in this match and I do think the return of the higher Ranked German can be very difficult for Friedsam to deal with. I do think we will see some breaks of the Kerber serve too, but over the course of this Second Round match I would expect Angelique Kerber to get into a position to cover this mark with one of the sets likely to be won by a wide margin to set her up for the spread cover.
Angelique Kerber won 52% of return points in the First Round against a much bigger server than Anna-Lena Friedsam and I think the former Champion will progress with some relative comfort when all is said and done.
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 games v Kaja Juvan: The Women's draw at the US Open looks wide open this year and Anett Kontaveit will very much believe she has every chance to win a major for the first time. The Estonian has been improving and heading back towards the top 20 of the World Rankings, while a close loss to Naomi Osaka here last week in the Quarter Final will not have damaged the confidence either.
She did drop the opening set at the US Open, but the performance from that point was very strong from Anett Kontaveit who crushed Daneille Collins in the First Round. The American can be a tough opponent and I do think the competition drops a touch in terms of levels for Kontaveit in the Second Round.
That does not mean she can take things for granted in the Second Round against Kaja Juvan who at 19 years old is still looking to crack the top 100 in the World Rankings for the first time. Despite her own Ranking, Juvan was fortunate to be drawn against someone Ranked even lower than herself in the First Round, but the win might have given her a boost to take into a very difficult looking Second Round match.
Decent returning numbers over the last twelve months has helped Juvan produce a winning record on the hard courts, and during that time she has also upset Venus Williams. The latter might not be the player she once was though and Juvan is only 1-4 when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.
Kaja Juvan's serve has been hurt by those higher Ranked opponents and her own returning numbers have simply not been able to cover up the service problems. I expect Anett Kontaveit to use her power and experience to overwhelm Juvan in this Second Round match and it was her own serving which saw her move past Danielle Collins a couple of days ago.
Anett Kontaveit has been a dominant winner when facing opponents Ranked outside the top 100 of the World Rankings on the hard courts over the last couple of years and I think that will be the case here. I expect her to earn four or five breaks of serve over the course of the match and that might be enough to secure at least one set by a wide enough margin to move into a position to cover this spread mark.
Throughout her career on the hard courts Anett Kontaveit has very strong returning numbers against the lower Ranked opponents she faces and I think we will see more of the same from her here. Unlike the First Round, Kontaveit might not need three sets this time to earn her spot in the Third Round.
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Camila Giorgi: Anyone who has ever seen Camila Giorgi play or if you have watched highlights of her matches will know that the Italian is a player that can produce almost unplayable tennis at her best. She can be hot for long enough to upset a top name too, but Giorgi is inconsistent and if you can weather the early storm then it is possible to wear her down and watch the errors come thick and fast.
It is never an easy match for anyone when facing Giorgi, but Naomi Osaka will enter this Second Round match as a big favourite. There were one or two concerns about Osaka heading into the tournament as she was dealing with a hamstring complaint that forced her to miss the Cincinnati Final a few days ago, although the Japanese star looks to be dealing with the added eyes on her matches with some confidence.
For a long time Naomi Osaka was considered a shy person who didn't appreciate the spotlight offered to her after winning the US Open and Australian Open in the space of a few months. Instead of that, Osaka has grown to the point where she led the tennis response to the social injustices taking place in the United States and I think she is growing all the time.
I was a little worried that it could be a distraction to a player who doesn't always want to be in the limelight, but I think Naomi Osaka will actually handle things much better than that. She will have to be better than she was in the First Round when dropping a set and perhaps not serving as well as she would have liked, but it was way too good for Misaki Doi.
The return game will be tested by Camila Giorgi who does have a pretty good serve when the first ball goes in- however, she threw in ten Double Faults in the First Round and I do think Naomi Osaka can put some pressure on that side of Giorgi's game.
Ultimately it is where I think Osaka will eventually crack Giorgi in this Second Round match although I do think it will be more competitive than the win Naomi Osaka had over this opponent in Tokyo a little under two years ago. On that day Osaka's serve was dominant and she found the breaks to comfortably win the match, but this time I expect Giorgi to stick around a little longer before being seen off.
Camila Giorgi had to dig deep to win in the First Round here having been playing in European clay court events last month instead of arriving in the bubble to play the Cincinnati event. The faster surfaces do suit her game, but I think Naomi Osaka is at a level which should be too much for Giorgi in this match and I will back the higher Ranked player to eventually crack through with the breaks of serve to cover this spread.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Magda Linette - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marta Kostyuk @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Egor Gerasimov @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
David Goffin - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
US Open Update: 12-8, + 5.08 Units (40 Units Staked, + 12.70% Yield)
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