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Saturday 12 September 2020

US Open Day 13 Tennis Picks- Women's Final 2020 (September 12th)

The lack of fans has perhaps been a blow to the atmosphere in some of the matches played at the US Open this year, but the tournament in general has been pretty decent.

A new Men's Grand Slam Champion will be crowned on Sunday so perhaps a new challenger can emerge to take on the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer over the next several months, while the Women's Final looks like a top one between a potential new dominant Champion and a former one rediscovering her best tennis.

Both Finals should be decent viewing up against some big competition with the NBA PlayOffs continuing and the majority of the Week 1 of the NFL games scheduled to be played in and around these US Open Finals.


Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Victoria Azarenka: A withdrawal ahead of the 'Cincinnati' Masters Final means we were not able to see Naomi Osaka versus Victoria Azarenka a couple of weeks ago, but the two players clearly in the best form have managed to work their way through to the Final of the US Open.

Both Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka have deserved to work their way through the draws as they have and both have had to dig in to win Semi Final matches in three sets on Thursday. I don't think there are going to be any issues with fatigue as both have been able to work their way through the previous six matches in largely dominant fashion, although one very slight edge may work in favour of Victoria Azarenka.

While she has dropped just two sets in the tournament compared with the three sets dropped by Naomi Osaka, Victoria Azarenka has had to come from behind to win both of those matches. On the other hand Osaka has dropped her sets after winning the first set and that may mean Azarenka has a very slight edge in mentality if she loses the opening set on Saturday compared with Naomi Osaka.

It's a very slight edge because I do think Naomi Osaka is playing at a very high level and do lean towards the favourite. She has been serving massively throughout the tournament and we did see Serena Williams put Victoria Azarenka under pressure with the serve in the first set and for parts of the remainder of that Semi Final on Thursday.

Serena Williams just doesn't have the same kind of movement as Naomi Osaka at this stage of her career and I do think the Japanese star can back up those big serves with consistent and big groundstrokes. That is not taking anything away from Victoria Azarenka's return game, but I do think Osaka can out-hit her following the first strike that her big serves tend to give her.

The Azarenka serve is also nothing like the big Jennifer Brady serve that Osaka dealt with in the Semi Final she played and other than that she has been able to really get her teeth into the return games played previously. While I am not disputing that Azarenka is perhaps the stronger returner, I do think her serve is not going to prevent Naomi Osaka from cracking through some heavy returns which puts her on the front foot in rallies and that is where she can earn the edge.

It should be a really good Final and I would be disappointed if there were not some twists and turns in the encounter. Naomi Osaka clearly doesn't forget previous losses easily if judging by her comments following a first win over Shelby Rogers, and I do think she will remember the 1 and 1 defeat to Victoria Azarenka at the Australian Open in January 2016.

Since then Naomi Osaka has won two clay court matches against Victoria Azarenka on what is the weakest surface for both players, and it is Osaka who has created the majority of the break points in those wins. I think that is likely going to be the case in the US Open Final and that should lead to Naomi Osaka winning a third Grand Slam and her second one here at Flushing Meadows.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 42-38, - 2.21 Units (160 Units Staked, - 1.38% Yield)

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