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Wednesday 30 September 2020

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2020 (September 30th)

The expected rain has not affected the French Open to the extent that it felt like it might when the tournament first begun and that does mean we are on schedule when we reach the middle of the week.

The First Round was played over three days and I actually think that benefited the tournament to make sure none of those are left over for Wednesday when the Second Round will begin. The bottom half of the Men's draw and the top half of the Women's draw are in action on Wednesday with matches scheduled through the day.

I do think there is a chance we will have a couple of delays during the day, but at least the next couple of days look a little drier. It is a bit overcast, but the weather is a little warmer and that should at least give the players a bit more of a chance to hit through courts that have been very difficult to do in the first three days.


We will get to see whether the slightly warmer conditions do make any difference to the way the courts have been playing, but the players have a match under their belt and so they have to take it how it comes now.

Yesterday was a much stronger day for the Tennis Picks, although in each of the last two days I have been frustrated by players having a chance to cover and missing game points or failing to serve things out when the chances have come up for them. Thankfully the Day 3 results have turned the tournament around, although there are plenty of days to come before we know which direction this Grand Slam is heading in for the Tennis Picks.

It does feel like a day with plenty of options like Tuesday did and I would be very happy to return the same record and keep the positive numbers ticking along.


Rafael Nadal - 10.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: On first glance this looks a massive number and especially after Rafael Nadal had to dig deep to win the first two sets of his First Round match.

The long time dominant French Open Champion may not be appreciating the conditions as much as he would in May, but beating Nadal on the clay courts remains one of the big challenges on the ATP Tour. It is that much greater to try and knock him off in Paris at the French Open in the best of five set format and I do think this is a comfortable looking match for him.

Where Egor Gerasimov had the power to hit through Rafael Nadal at times and a big serve that could set up some easy points, I am not sure Mackenzie McDonald is going to benefit in the same way. The American had a solid First Round win over Qualifier Steven Diez, but this is a significant step up for him and the conditions are going to make it very difficult for McDonald throughout this one.

There is no doubting that Rafael Nadal would love to see the temperatures pick up in the days ahead, but it is going to be a match in which he should be firmly involved in every game played. Mackenzie McDonald doesn't have the best clay court pedigree, but his numbers are really below average when he has faced up against top 100 Ranked opponents and now he has to take on arguably the best clay courter of all time.

Last year McDonald was beaten by Yoshihito Nishioka in the First Round here at Roland Garros, although he did push the opponent to five sets. Even then he was beaten by a ten game margin and I do think Rafael Nadal will be able to break serve regularly in this one.

He broke the Gerasimov serve five times in the First Round and this is a serve that is going to be much more comfortable to deal with. As I said above, this is not an easy number of games to cover, but Rafael Nadal should be able to make a statement like Novak Djokovic did and that is brushing aside Mackenzie McDonald with the loss of just seven games over the course of the match.


Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: If you look at the head to head between every player on the Tour you do find some funny ones where one player has the advantage over the other. One of those might be the 3-1 lead Pierre-Hugues Herbert holds over Alexander Zverev despite the former never having reached the top 30 in the World Rankings and the latter being a feature in the top 10 for some time.

A part of the reason is that these players have not met since 2016 at Roland Garros when Alexander Zverev snapped his losing run to the home hope. Since then it is Zverev who has really kicked on with his career, although there are still some vulnerabilities in his game.

I am not sure Herbert is going to have enough to expose those vulnerabilities though with his limited return game unlikely to pressure Zverev's serve. Pierre-Hugues Herbert is definitely a stronger Doubles player than he is a Singles player, but the Frenchman is comfortable on the clay courts and his good win in the First Round will have given him some confidence.

However the wins have largely come against some of the weaker players on the Tour and Herbert is just 13-21 when playing against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay. His numbers take a serious dent and I am not sure the Frenchman is going to be helped by the heavier conditions we have seen at the French Open over the last few days.

It might just dent the serve, which is a huge part of the Herbert game, and that should mean Alexander Zverev is able to get his teeth into those return games. When they met here in 2016 the German only broke in 18% of return games played and he only won 37% of return points played, but Alexander Zverev created plenty of break points and I do think he is a better player now having produced some of his best tennis at Grand Slam level.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert will cause problems if he gets into a rhythm behind his serve, but I do think the heavier conditions may make it difficult to avoid a set where Alexander Zverev is able to pull away with a couple of breaks of serve. That should set him on the road to covering this number as he moves through to the Third Round of the last Slam of the season.


Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: Another Grand Slam tournament ended in frustration for Serena Williams who reached the business end of the US Open before losing to Victoria Azarenka in the Semi Final. She looked to be suffering physically by the end of that tournament as Williams continues to try and match Margaret Court's record of 24 Singles Grand Slam titles, but the American has arrived in Paris and looked to move through the gears in her First Round win.

Serena Williams beat Kristie Ahn in the First Round, a player she saw off at the US Open, and now she faces another player that she played at Flushing Meadows. She needed three sets to beat Tsvetana Pironkova at the US Open, but Serena Williams may feel her superiority on the clay courts should give her a clearer edge.

The match at the US Open was a close, competitive one before Serena Williams began to pull away and that means the former World Number 1 has won all five previous matches against the Bulgarian.

We had not seen Tsvetana Pironkova play on the Tour for a number of years as she left to raise a family, but she didn't miss a step in her run at the US Open. The Quarter Final loss to Serena Williams wouldn't have dented the confidence too much, and Pironkova was a strong winner in the First Round in her first match on the clay courts for three years.

She was never the best on the clay courts and I do think that has to play a part against an opponent that Pironkova has struggled to deal with throughout her career.

I would think the slower conditions are going to be an issue for Serena Williams the longer this tournament progresses, but in this match I can see the serve giving her a few more cheaper points than Tsvetana Pironkova will be able to get on her own serve. Her serve began to wear down when Pironkova played Serena Williams at the US Open and I do think the latter is going to be able to time some big winners which should give her the edge in the match.

It is hard to trust a declining Serena Williams to cover the bigger numbers these days, but I think she will find the breaks of serve to cover the mark in this one. I do think Pironkova has to be respected for the way she has played in her time back on the Tour over the last month, but Serena Williams should have a bit too much for her in the Second Round.


Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: There has been talk about the lack of fans potentially releasing some of the pressure on the French players at the French Open this year. In the past we have seen players struggle to put their best tennis on the clay courts with the sense of expectation which comes from the crowd, and Caroline Garcia has already shown how tough she can be in the current climate.

She found a way to motivate herself in her tough First Round match against Anett Kontaveit in a three set win over an opponent who beat her at the Rome Masters earlier this month. That is a very big win for Caroline Garcia who has not always found the consistency needed to fulfil the potential that many felt she had.

The Frenchwoman is a solid clay courter, but it would need something special for her to go on and win the French Open. With that in mind, I do think Garcia has opened the draw for herself to at least reach the second week of the tournament and this is an opponent she has matched up well with in the past, although all three previous wins over Aliaksandra Sasnovich have come on the hard courts.

Like Garcia, Aliaksandra Sasnovich had to dig deep and win her First Round match in three sets and she has reached two Quarter Finals in clay court tournaments since the Tour returned back in August. That has to give her confidence, although it would be foolish to ignore the fact that the majority of those matches were played against opponents Ranked outside the top 100.

In general Sasnovich has struggled when it comes to competing with top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts and I do think Caroline Garcia can put her under pressure in this one.

My only concern with backing Garcia is that she has not really been playing with a lot of consistency and there will be a different pressure on her in the Second Round. She was the underdog in the First Round win over Anett Kontaveit, but there is a different pressure on her now and Garcia is not the best at coping with the expectation around her.

Having limited fans allowed onto the grounds may help Garcia and I do think the match up is one that won't worry her too much. I do think Aliaksandra Sasnovich can play some very high level tennis, but that may not be seen for long enough to win this match and instead I will look for Garcia to dig deep and move into the Third Round while covering the handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 10.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Cori Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka-Dominik Koepfer Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yoshihito Nishioka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Norbert Gombos - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benoit Paire @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

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