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Thursday, 1 October 2020

French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2020 (October 1st)

Wednesday proved to be as disappointing as Tuesday was productive and I am going to take it as I took the previous day and accept how things went and move forward.

There are going to be some ups and downs over the two weeks of a Grand Slam event, but I am looking for better through the remainder of the week.

However, I am not sure how many of these matches are going to be played day by day with some poor weather forecast and only a single court with a roof that can keep things ticking along. It will almost certainly be a delayed start for those scheduled on the outside courts, but the hope is that the showers will pass relatively quickly and lead to plenty of play later in the day.


Novak Djokovic - 10.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: It is another potentially damp day in Paris, but that is not going to affect the players who have been scheduled to play on the number one court at Roland Garros. Unsurprisingly the big names are kept reserved for this court and Novak Djokovic will be looking to come out and match the kind of performance he produced in the First Round and also continue to show that he is playing as well as Rafael Nadal who was a dominant Second Round winner on Wednesday.

The World Number 1 dropped just five games in the First Round win over Mikael Ymer and Novak Djokovic remains unbeaten on the court, even if he does have that default loss on his record from the US Open. That defeat should be fuelling Djokovic and his win in Rome shows he is ready to win in conditions that may be more familiar to him than many others playing in Paris this year.

It certainly won't bother Novak Djokovic as much as Rafael Nadal that the temperatures are cooler and the ball and surface is making the court feel heavier than usual. He is a very strong defender and it is going to be very difficult for players to be able to hit through him on this surface and I would back Novak Djokovic to get the better of the long rallies against most players on the Tour.

That shouldn't be a controversial statement and Djokovic has to like the match up in the Second Round when he takes on Ricardas Berankis. The Lithuanian was something of an upset winner in the First Round, but Berankis has long struggled to produce his best tennis on the clay courts and I do think his game is going to be a comfortable one for Novak Djokovic to deal with.

These two did play a competitive match in the Masters event held in New York prior to the US Open beginning, but that surface will have aided Berankis a lot more than this one will. Even under the roof I do think it will be tough conditions for the underdog and his losses at Roland Garros in recent years have been remarkably one-sided.

In his last three defeats at the French Open, Ricardas Berankis has won just fourteen games combined so it is difficult to imagine him winning seven in this one. When he played Novak Djokovic at the US Open in 2013, Berankis won just five games as he was dominated and the Serb is arguably playing at a much higher level now.

There could be some really fun moments in this one as a talented Berankis takes risks, but Novak Djokovic should be fairly comfortable when it is all said and done and can cover this number in his Second Round win.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: While it is obviously better to still be in a tournament than out of it, Stefanos Tsitsipas will be a little annoyed that he was forced to dig deep and come from 2-0 down to win in the First Round. You can't win a Grand Slam at this stage of an event, but you don't want to put too many miles into the body or the mind by having to fight tooth and nail in the early Rounds when the competition is supposedly at its weakest.

The draw could have been kinder to Tsitsipas having to take on a clay court specialist in the First Round and now having to take on another in the Second Round. At least the First Round win didn't see him spending a ridiculous amount of time on the court and that does at least give the young Greek star the chance to have recovered in time for this one.

He did win reach the Final in Hamburg last week so Stefanos Tsitsipas has not had a lot of rest over the last few days which could add up the further he goes at the French Open and so it is important for him to make a much stronger start to this match. Stefanos Tsitsipas has remained one of the stronger clay court players out there and I do think the fact he managed to dig deep and win in the First Round will help him going forward.

Pablo Cuevas needed almost an hour less than Tsitsipas to move through to the Second Round and he has long played his best tennis on the clay courts. That makes him dangerous, and he has had his best results at Roland Garros when it comes to the four Grand Slams, but stunningly he has never been beyond the Third Round here.

A couple of solid runs in warm up events on the clay will help Cuevas believe he can cause an upset in the current conditions in Paris, but you can't ignore the fact there has been a slight decline in his numbers on the clay in each of the last couple of years. He has also tended to play his best clay court tennis in his own continent rather than Europe and the head to head makes for tough reading for him too.

Their numbers on the clay courts have been similar in 2020, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has beaten the veteran three times out of three and the last two have come on the clay courts. One of those victories came in Hamburg last week while Tsitsipas has a real advantage when it comes to the numbers having held serve in 95% of service games played against Pablo Cuevas on the clay compared with 81% for the latter.

The performance in the First Round has to be a concern, but I think we will see a much better one from Stefanos Tsitsipas on Thursday in the Second Round. The roof may be needed, but I think Tsitsipas can break down the Pablo Cuevas game over the best of three set format and the bigger serve may produce the 'easier' holds even in conditions where the return players do have a real edge.


Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 sets v Albert Ramos: An upset win in the First Round may have opened up the draw for Marton Fucsovics, but he has to avoid falling victim of one of his own in the Second Round. It will be a long shot for Fucsovics to reach the Quarter Final out of a very difficult part of the draw, but he can reach the second week as long as he remains focused on his tennis.

The Hungarian has perhaps not been at his best on the clay courts, but he is consistent enough to be a threat. I was a little concerned by the lack of preparation tournaments taken in by Fucsovics before the French Open began, but his win over Daniil Medvedev in four sets shows how capable he is on the surface even if the higher Ranked and more well-known name is not a great player on the red dirt.

Last season Marton Fucsovics finished with a losing record on the clay courts, but his numbers were pretty solid and this should be a match up that he should be relatively comfortable dealing with.

Albert Ramos is clearly very comfortable on the clay courts and his straight sets win over Adrian Mannarino in the First Round will have given him a boost. The Spaniard had lost all three matches played on the clay courts in the last month preparing for the French Open and Albert Ramos had only won a single set in that time, so the win over Mannarino would have been most welcome.

The numbers have been largely disappointing for Ramos on the clay courts in 2020 and the losses ahead of the French Open would have hurt. I do think the conditions won't be an issue for someone as comfortable on the clay courts as the Spaniard is, but I also think his serve is one that can be attacked and especially by someone like Marton Fucsovics who has decent returning numbers on this surface in recent seasons.

Albert Ramos does lead the head to to head 3-2 which becomes 3-1 when we look at solely their previous clay court meetings, but Marton Fucsovics deserved to win the last of those which would have tied things up. The Hungarian missed too many break points that day in a three set defeat, but I think he can be a little more clinical when those chances are presented on a slower surface and I think he is able to move through to the Third Round in three or four sets.


Jiri Vesely-Karen Khachanov over 35.5 games: You would hope that Karen Khachanov is still focusing on putting together a strong run at Roland Garros rather than getting into social media arguments with his fellow players who are not performing in Paris. The Russian has got into it with Nick Kyrgios, who is never concerned about speaking his mind, but he has to be focused on matters on the court when taking on Jiri Vesely in the Second Round.

Both players came through relatively comfortably in the First Round and that should mean we have two confident players, although I do believe that both Vesely and Khachanov would have preferred to be playing in slightly faster conditions. Both do possess a big first serve which can set up some easier points, but I think the aggressive nature of both players will lead to more mistakes as they struggle to generate the pace to hit through the court.

Out of the two players it is the underdog Jiri Vesely who has produced the more consistent results on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open. The lefty has a solid game which should have perhaps led to a much stronger career to this point, but Vesely looks to be on the right path again with his World Ranking improving.

The raw numbers have looked pretty good for the Czech player, but you do have to say that the majority of the players he has been facing in recent weeks have been lower down the World Ranking list. This time he has to take on a player who is a former top 10 player and one who is still entrenched in the top 20 and that increase is level is going to be a challenge for Jiri Vesely.

Karen Khachanov is a solid enough clay court player, but he is not amongst the best on the surface and I think that will offer some encouragement to Jiri Vesely. The Russian was just 1-2 in preparation matches for the French Open on the clay courts and he was simply not serving as well as he would have liked in those matches, although the vulnerabilities may not be exposed by someone like Vesely.

Add in the fact that Khachanov has not been the most effective returner on the clay courts and I do think the underdog will cause problems here. Winning the match outright is going to be a huge challenge, but I do think Jiri Vesely can win a set and maybe more if he is serving as well as he can.

If this match goes four sets I would be disappointed if the total games market is not covered even though you do tend to get a lot more one-sided sets on the clay courts which can hinder that process. In this one I think both Jiri Vesely and Karen Khachanov could struggle with their return at times and so I will be looking for four long sets, at least, to develop.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 10.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jiri Vesely-Karen Khachanov Over 35.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cristian Garin - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alison Van Uytvanck - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Petra Martic.- 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

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