After looking like any College Football season would be pushed back to the Spring, the individual Conferences slowly came together to produce a new, smaller schedule and the teams were set to go. Players have had to make choices as to whether they would like to play or not, while Covid-19 cases in some Colleges have meant teams have had to play with second, third or fourth string players.
My personal feeling was that I would not attempt to make Picks with as much uncertainty around as there had been, but also believing that by the opening couple of weeks of October we would have a much better idea as to whether the season could be completed in the current climate. When the SEC decided they were returning to the field, my interest picked up and even though this pandemic is far from over, it is good to have Saturday evening Football back on the screens and with a lot more competitive games on a weekly basis than the usual schedules provide.
It seems the Bowl Season and the College Football PlayOff will all be good to go assuming the season finishes as expected, while the Championship Games have been pushed back to mid-December.
I am looking forward to seeing how things develop and of course I just hope there are not the huge outbreaks which will make everyone wonder if it was the right decision to play in the first place.
Florida Gators @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: The SEC is still the top Conference in College Football and the winner of it will be heading into the College Football PlayOff as the team to beat after the LSU Tigers were crowned National Champions in 2019. The Florida Gators have opened the season with consecutive wins and they are a legit contender in this Conference as they are one of three teams in the SEC East who have won both games played.
By the end of the weekend there may only be a maximum of two unbeaten teams in the Conference, but that is mainly down to the Gators as the other two unbeaten teams, Georgia and Tennessee, are also playing each other in Week 6. On the other hand the Florida Gators head out on the road to take on an old rival in Jimbo Fisher who is now the Head Coach of the 1-1 Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies dropped the second game of the season against the powerhouse of the Alabama Crimson Tide and they are going to find it tough to bounce back in this one. However, while they have Kellen Mond throwing the ball to some talented Receivers, the Aggies will always feel they have enough points to challenge any team they face in this Conference.
Kellen Mond has plenty of College experience behind him and he didn't have a bad outing against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 5 having thrown three Touchdown passes and a single Interception, although that was taken back to the house. The Quarter Back is helping the Aggies average over 250 passing yards per game in the early part of the season and this Florida team, despite being a strong one, are vulnerable through the air as Head Coach Dan Mullen has admitted when talking about the problems the Aggies Offensive unit will give his team.
The Gators have allowed almost 330 passing yards on average this season, although a part of that is down to the fact that teams have needed to throw to keep up with them. Even then it is no excuse to have those kind of numbers and Florida will be more disappointed by the lack of Interceptions this Secondary have had in those games.
Where Florida have excelled is with their pass rush, although Kellen Mond has been well protected to this point, and the strength on the Defensive Line which makes it difficult for teams to produce on the ground. The Gators Defensive Line have only allowed 3.5 yards per carry and they will believe they can make the Aggies one-dimensional at worst although they have to show they can slow down Kellen Mond and prevent him having another big game.
Ultimately the Gators will believe they have enough big plays in the locker to be able to do that on the Defensive side of the ball, while they will also believe they can increase the pressure with their own Offensive output. Kyle Trask is a potential Heisman winner and he is helping the Gators average over 350 passing yards per game in the early weeks of the SEC season which has helped Florida remain unbeaten behind two strong wins.
There is very little faith that the Aggies Secondary can consistently stop Trask and his Receiving talent having given up almost 300 passing yards per game and with a very limited pass rush trying to rattle the Quarter Back. Florida's Offensive Line have protected Trask, while also paving the way for some big running lanes, although like Texas A&M it may be more about the Quarter Back's throwing talent than expecting huge chunks to be gained on the ground.
The Aggies have been able to pick up some turnovers and that could be key in this game where both Offensive units will believe they can move the ball up and down the field at will. It will come down to superior talent and that is where I give the Florida Gators a narrow edge over the Aggies and ultimately think it will lead to a win by a Touchdown at least.
Florida are 31-12 against the spread in their last forty-three as the road favourite and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games overall.
On the other hand, Texas A&M are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and they are 8-21 against the spread in their last twenty-nine following a straight up loss. This is a team that has sometimes struggled when the level picks up in Conference play and I do think that is the case here with the Florida Gators looking like a team that could be a potential National Champion.
Virginia Tech Hokies @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: In usual circumstances the ACC Conference is split into two Divisions and we would have a Championship Game at the end of the season. In 2020 nothing is usual and this year the entire Conference is placed in one standings and the top two teams will end up competing for the Championship in mid-December.
Only five of the teams have an unbeaten record going into Week 6 of the weird 2020 season and two of those are meeting here when the Virginia Tech Hokies visit the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday.
The Hokies are unbeaten despite the fact that they have had a Covid-19 outbreak in the dressing room and were forced to play some of the second string players. They have missed twenty players in the last couple of games played and that has seen opponents have a chance to attack the Secondary and I have to believe the North Carolina Tar Heels are going to take the same approach.
It may not be easy to throw the ball in the conditions though and that is going to be the challenge for the Tar Heels here despite some decent numbers in the early part of the season. The pandemic will have broken some of the rhythm that the North Carolina Offensive unit may have had otherwise seeing as they have played a single competitive game in a month and with rain and wind forecasted it may be tough to throw the ball forty times in this one.
That will mean leaning on a strong rushing attack, although the Virginia Tech Hokies have remained strong on the Defensive Line even when the Secondary have been struggling. The Hokies have only given up 3.5 yards per carry so it may be difficult for Michael Carter to pick up from where he left off against the Boston College Eagles in Week 5 when piling up over 100 yards on the ground.
North Carolina will have more trust in their Quarter Back, although it won't be easy for Sam Howell if his team are not able to stay in front of the down and distance in this game. Howell has not impressed as the Tar Heels would have liked, but he has been decent enough behind an Offensive Line which has not always been at their best in pass protection. That has to be a major concern for the Quarter Back considering how effectively the Virginia Tech Defensive Line have been at getting Sacks on the board and it may be the best way for the Hokies to at least keep North Carolina in check and have a chance to upset the odds here.
Quarter Back play has been a real issue for the Hokies already this season, but there could be some better news coming for them and possibly as early as Week 6. The expected starter was supposed to be Hendon Hooker, but College Football protocols have meant he has not been able to play as he has been in quarantine, although that may be coming to an end now.
Even if Hooker is able to go, it won't be down to the Quarter Back whether the Virginia Tech Hokies are able to win this game. Instead the focus in their first two games has been pounding the rock and they have been very effective at doing that with the Offensive Line mowing down opponents and opening holes for 7 yards per carry.
Those numbers have been compiled against the NC State Wolfpack and the Duke Blue Devils, but this week the Hokies are going up against the Tar Heels Defensive Line which has held opponents to 2 yards per carry. Without any doubt it is the team that controls the line of scrimmage best which is going to be in a position to win this game and I do think it will be tough to stop the Hokies even though everyone knows what they want to do.
The Tar Heels have not exactly managed to stop two of the elite running teams in the nation, but the Defensive Line does deserve respect.
Even then I think the Hokies will be able to do enough to be in front of the chains in this one and that should allow their Quarter Back, whoever it is, to make some plays to keep things moving. Staying in front of the chains is important to slow down what is a fierce North Carolina pass rush, although the Defensive Line might not be pinning back their ears while the game is competitive knowing the first port of call is stopping the run.
The Hokies have gotten the better of this rivalry in recent seasons with four straight wins over the North Carolina Tar Heels.
They are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven visits to North Carolina and Virginia Tech are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the road underdog. Getting more than a Field Goal worth of points looks good enough to back the road team here to keep this one competitive against a good looking North Carolina team.
Florida State Seminoles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: We would usually be watching the Notre Dame Fighting Irish try and run through a very difficult schedule as an Independent College Football team and that also meant that they would be in a very tough spot when it came to trying to earn a College Football PlayOff spot.
2020 has given the Fighting Irish an unexpected chance to play within a Conference setting as they were allowed to join the ACC and they are 1-0 within the Conference going into Week 6. Other teams have had issues trying to get through the weeks without being impacted by the pandemic the world is living with, but the Fighting Irish were not able to avoid the same and that has meant the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are taking to the field for the first time in almost a month.
Some feel that may have seen the Fighting Irish lose some rhythm, but they remain big favourites to remain unbeaten having beaten the Duke Blue Devils and South Florida Bulls in their first two games. Only one of those was a Conference game, but the Fighting Irish are one of five unbeaten teams within the ACC and they will be looking to make it two out two when they host the Florida State Seminoles.
The Seminoles might have had a miserable start to the 2020 season, but they at least managed to snap their losing start in Week 5 even if it came against an overmatched opponent. Being able to take to the field will at least mean Florida State are game-ready for this big test in Week 6, although the Seminoles have to show more heart and grit than they did in losing to Georgia Tech and then being embarrassed by their State rivals the Miami Hurricanes.
Beating Jacksonville State is one thing, but facing one of the teams that could be a National Title contender is a whole different ball game for the Seminoles this week. They have had Quarter Back issues all season with a third player going behind Center in their win over Jacksonville State after early struggles for James Blackman and Tate Rodemaker.
Jordan Travis rallied Florida State for the win over Jacksonville State in Week 5 and he has been given the starting spot for the team at Quarter Back this week. It is a big test for Travis who is going to be facing a Notre Dame team that have simply not been giving up much Defensively.
The Fighting Irish have given up less than 200 passing yards per game and restricted teams to 2.9 yards per carry and that has helped them dominate their first two opponents. Of course the Seminoles are expected to be better than the Blue Devils or Bulls that Notre Dame have played, but this is a team that has struggled to throw the ball consistently and the feeling is that Travis is more comfortable running the ball than throwing it.
It will be important for Travis to use his wheels to try and open up the passing game and also to ease the pressure on the Offensive Line which has struggled in pass protection all season. The Fighting Irish have the pass rush pressure to get to Jordan Travis and it may be an evening where the Florida State Seminoles struggle Offensively as they did in their two games against FBS opponents.
Head Coach Brian Kelly has admitted it was a difficult time for Notre Dame with all of the Covid-19 positive tests they had to deal with, but they have had almost three weeks to make sure players are healthy and feeling better. It should mean a strong team is able to take to the field and the Fighting Irish will be confident that Ian Book will be able to pick up from where he left off in mid-September.
It may not all be down to Book to throw the ball because the Seminoles Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run and Kyren Williams has been able to establish the run effectively for the Fighting Irish. If Williams is able to run the ball behind his Offensive Line as he has in the first two games, Ian Book will be in third and manageable spots where he can expose the Secondary that has struggled to stop the pass.
Florida State have not really been able to pressure the Quarter Back so Book should have plenty of time to pick his targets against a Secondary which has allowed almost 280 passing yards per game this season which includes facing one FCS team. That has to be a real concern for the Seminoles and I think the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will be too strong across the board as long as they are fully healthy.
I do expect that to be the case with the way the schedule has worked out and two years ago the Fighting Irish blew out the Florida State Seminoles at home. The Seminoles are now 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the road underdog and Notre Dame are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven as the home favourite.
It may begin close as Notre Dame just work off the cobwebs, but eventually I think they will be able to create some big Defensive plays which sparks them Offensively and allows them to roll through the Florida State Seminoles.
Miami Hurricanes @ Clemson Tigers Pick: In recent years we have seen the top College Football programs refuse to allow a bad ending to one season seep into the next and that is where the Clemson Tigers find themselves. Losing the National Championship Game would have hurt and the manner of the defeat would have stung all the more, but the Tigers might be the team to beat in the College Football ranks this season.
They are the current Number 1 Ranked team in the country, but nothing matters aside from winning the ACC Conference and looking to do so as an unbeaten Champion to confirm their spot in any College Football PlayOff which is going to be played. They are 3-0 for the season and the Tigers are 2-0 in Conference play, but this is a big game in front of them as they are set to take on the Miami Hurricanes.
Like the Clemson Tigers, the Hurricanes are 3-0 in 2020 and 2-0 within the Conference and so it feels like the winner of this one will be well on the way to earning a spot in the Championship Game in mid-December.
D'Eriq King transferred across from the Houston Cougars to give the Miami Hurricanes a new starting Quarter Back to lean on and his start has been very impressive as his team have seen off UAB, Louisville and Florida State. You can't ignore how well King has played, but facing the Clemson Defensive unit is a completely different level of challenge for him and the chance to prove himself.
The Quarter Back will be trying to make plays against the Clemson Secondary which has held their first three opponents to an average of 213 yards per game through the air. That number is aided by the fact that the Defensive Line have been incredibly strong at shutting down teams on the ground and forcing them to become one-dimensional by having to throw the ball to stay competitive.
Cam'Ron Davis might be able to help King in this one with his ability to break tackles and rip off chunks on the ground, but the Tigers will feel they can control the line of scrimmage despite the strong numbers Miami's Offensive Line have produced. D'Eriq King is capable of scrambling for yards on the ground too, but the Hurricanes are going to be tested by this pass rush too and I do think the Tigers are looking to show they are ready to beat any team put in front of them.
It helps the Defensive unit to take chances knowing Trevor Lawrence is leading the team from the Quarter Back position and scoring points is rarely going to be a problem for them. Lawrence is a leading Heisman candidate and the player most expect to go Number 1 Overall in the NFL Draft whenever he declares for the next level.
The Tigers have not exactly faced a tough schedule, but Lawrence is a National Champion and has shown he can beat any team he faces when at his best. He is helping the team average over 300 passing yards per game and the Miami Secondary have simply not played as well as their Clemson counterparts, although they are stout enough.
Where Clemson might have a real edge is that they should be able to get more out of Travis Etienne when it comes to running the ball than Miami are able to get from Cam'Ron Davis. The Tigers Defensive Line have been tough to run on, but the Hurricanes Defensive Line has proven to not be as strong even though they are far from easy to run on themselves.
If Etienne can make some big plays, it should ease the Miami pass rush and give Trevor Lawrence the chance to put some big plays on the field even in what could be tough conditions with remnants of Tropical Storm Delta likely to be felt.
Rain and wind may make throwing the ball a little more difficult than normal, but that is where the Clemson rushing Offense may have the edge over Miami and make sure the Tigers are not only ready to win, but ready to cover a big mark.
The Tigers are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home and they are 18-8 against the spread in their last twenty-six as the favourite. I think this is a season in which they are trying to redeem themselves for the way the 2019 season ended and I like the Tigers here.
MY PICKS: Florida Gators - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Virginia Tech Hokies + 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 20.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
NC State Wolfpack + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats - 1.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
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