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Saturday, 17 October 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 17-19)

The international break is over and that means the return of the Premier League and Fantasy Football.

I will have a few words about GW5 once I put down a few thoughts about the fixtures to be played this weekend.


Everton v Liverpool Pick: Both clubs from Merseyside had made a very strong start to the Premier League season before the final set of games ahead of the October international break.

While Everton have kept their winning run going, Liverpool were being thumped 7-2 at Aston Villa in one of the more staggering results you will see for some time.

The lack of crowds have not helped some of the fixtures and that was the argument made to excuse the Liverpool performance, but it is not the first time since the resumption of play that the defensive levels have not been good enough. They earned a clean sheet at Chelsea, but that came against ten men for the entirety of the second half and even then Liverpool needed their hosts to miss a penalty.

They are giving up some big chances and I think the pressure only increases tenfold knowing Alisson is not between the sticks behind them.

Everton have not beaten Liverpool at Goodison Park since October 17th 2010, but ten years to the day later they look to have as good a chance as ever. They are playing with confidence and Carlo Ancelotti will have some key players back from injury, while Everton have been creating chances for fun in their games this season.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is a striker in form and Everton will feel they can get at this Liverpool backline which has been surprisingly nervous at times throughout this season.

They might not have beaten them here, but Everton don't lose many games to Liverpool at Goodison Park which is underlined by the fact that 7 of the last 8 here have ended in draws. When they met here in June it was only some poor home finishing which prevented Everton taking the full three points and I think this current squad are playing considerably better than they were back then.

Everton look stronger all around and I would be surprised if they are beaten by Liverpool, despite the fact that the latter should be fuming and desperate to put things right after their embarrassing capitulation at Villa Park.

We should see a really strong Liverpool performance, but defensively they have more questions than answers at the moment and I think Everton are able to avoid defeat at the least.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: This is the first ever PPV Football game being played in the Premier League and I am looking forward to seeing what kind of numbers the television companies pick up for these fixtures.

Personally I not only find it embarrassing that the Premier League has decided this is the best way to deal with the fact that fans are not allowed inside the Stadiums, but the actual cost is beyond a joke.

Neither the Chelsea or Southampton players will be worrying about that as they look to keep some momentum behind them following positive home wins in the final set of games before the international break.

Both clubs have been playing some strong attacking football, but Frank Lampard and Ralph Hasenhuttl will be more pleased with the clean sheets earned. Southampton in particular have looked much more solid at the back following the 2-5 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur, although those games have been against Burnley and West Brom and this Chelsea team have a lot more attacking threat than those two clubs.

Frank Lampard has perhaps not been allowing his Chelsea team play as freely as they were at the end of last season, although I do think injuries have been partly to blame. There shouldn't be any excuses this weekend with the likes of Christian Pulisic back and possibly starting and I do think Chelsea will find spaces against this Southampton team who do like to get on the front foot themselves.

In recent seasons Chelsea have not had it easy against Southampton and I do think this will be a difficult test days before the Champions League begins. However, I also think Chelsea have been playing well at Stamford Bridge for some time and they have the pace and quality in the final third to eventually break down Southampton.

The visitors will cause problems, but I think their attacking intent will eventually be their downfall in this one.


Manchester City v Arsenal Pick: This is a big game in the Premier League on Saturday afternoon and Mikel Arteta is going to be confident he can find the right system to get the better of Pep Guardiola for the second time in the space of a few months.

Arsenal have not really enjoyed playing Manchester City in recent years, but they did enough to beat them in the FA Cup Semi Final in July and there will be a confidence about the team. They have made a strong start to the 2020/21 season and Arsenal will believe their pace in the final third is going to give them every chance to expose a Manchester City defence which has not been watertight at all.

I do expect Manchester City to be better the longer Ruben Dias and Aymeric Laporte have to play with each other, but in the early part of the season there might be some teething problems. We saw some of those when Leeds United got forward against them, but Manchester City have also shown an attacking cutting edge that will give them a chance in this and any match they play.

Being without Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero has been difficult and both are edging closer to a return, but unlikely to be involved this weekend. It is important that both Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne are fit to play a part because this is going to be a difficult enough game and without them I don't think I would fancy Manchester City's chances at all.

However, if both Sterling and De Bruyne are available there is enough of an attacking push from Manchester City to be able to cause this Arsenal team some problems. The Gunners are far from the walkover they have been in recent seasons and they will challenge Manchester City, but I do think the home team will have the better of the opportunities over the ninety minutes.

Even in the games played so far this season, Arteta seems to be capable of getting results from fixtures where his team have not been at their best. Both West Ham United and Liverpool created some big chances against Arsenal and you have to feel if they are going to allow Manchester City to do the same that the home team will have a little too much in the locker for them.

Arsenal do find a way to hang around in matches which will make them dangerous, but Manchester City should be able to finish off the chances they are likely to create in this one. Even without their top two strikers, Manchester City have been scoring goals and I think they will find a way to edge past Arsenal with perhaps a late goal sealing the deal like Liverpool did when they met The Gunners last month.


Newcastle United v Manchester United Pick: Rumours have been flying over the last couple of weeks after Manchester United's hammering at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur- the majority of those are about the manager and whether he will be given much more time, but most fans are also furious about the poor recruitment strategy at Old Trafford which continues to blight the club.

More panicky decisions were made as the transfer deadline hit and Manchester United are now heading into a big month.

It doesn't help that some have been suggesting that Bruno Fernandes had a major falling out with team-mates and with the manager at half time of the defeat to Spurs.

All in all Manchester United will have plenty of eyes on them to see how they react to the devastating defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. The players have to show they have more pride playing for the shirt than they did two weeks ago, but the challenge is finding the right system to deal without Anthony Martial and Edinson Cavani.

Manchester United will also be travelling to St James' Park this weekend where they have a poor recent record having won 1 of their last 4 visits. Last season they were beaten 1-0 here and Newcastle United have made a positive start to the season which will make them feel pretty good about their chances of earning an upset.

Steve Bruce will be looking to set his team up to be hard to beat and he could have a number of first team defenders back for this fixture having entered the international break with a lot of injuries to deal with. Restricting space and trying to hit Manchester United on the counter attack will be the game plan for the home team and it is a plan that Brighton almost executed perfectly in the last away Premier League game played by the visitors.

Manchester United have won 7 away games in all competitions in succession and they have been scoring goals for fun in those fixtures. However being without Martial is a blow to their chances here and I do think there is something not right at the club at the moment which makes them vulnerable.

The manager could find himself under huge pressure on Saturday evening if Manchester United were to lose again, but either way it does feel like a very difficult game for the visitors to win easily. Big games will come thick and fast for Manchester United after this one, but that puts pressure on them to earn a result in this fixtures to build some momentum towards bigger tests.

It just feels like a tough ask at a ground on which Manchester United have experienced some hardship in recent times. Add in the dent in confidence the players suffered, the missing strikers and Newcastle United's own decent start to the season and this feels like a very short price for Manchester United to get back to winning ways.


Sheffield United v Fulham Pick: Two teams who could not have asked for more disappointing opening month of the Premier League season meet on Sunday in what is a very important game for both Sheffield United and Fulham.

Second season syndrome has been a problem for many clubs in the top flight over the last thirty years, but Chris Wilder will be most concerned that his Sheffield United team have lost 7 Premier League games in a row. That includes 3 losses from the end of last season which suggests the Sheffield United slump is more prolonged than merely the players being worked out in their second season at this level.

A lack of goals is an issue, but Sheffield United have been creating chances. At some point I do think they will be better in front of goal, but the bigger issue may be the fact that The Blades have lost some of their toughness defensively which means they will need a lot more goals to get anywhere near the kind of level produced last season.

Injuries have hurt Sheffield United as has the decision of Dean Henderson to return to Manchester United, but Wilder will know this fixture represents a good chance to get the first points on the board.

Scott Parker did really well in helping Fulham return to the top flight, but his team have struggled on their return to the Premier League. Defensively they have been a mess and new signings have been made to try and improve on that side of their game, while Fulham are also a team who have struggled to score enough goals with none being managed in their last 3 games in all competitions.

The feeling is that Sheffield United have been more productive going forward which could be the key to the outcome of this one. It won't be easy considering the recent form which will have dented the confidence of the players, but Fulham are not exactly firing on all cylinders themselves and I do think The Blades have the cutting edge to eventually begin to take the chances created.

I am not anticipating the highest scoring game of the weekend, but Sheffield United can be the one to earn their first victory of the 2020/21 season.


Crystal Palace v Brighton Pick: Most derby games in England are between clubs that don't have the same kind of distance between them that Crystal Palace and Brighton do, but that has not lessened the intensity between these clubs.

Both teams are likely going to be battling to avoid relegation this season and these games could have extra meaning when it comes to May and the final breakdown of the League table. That won't be lost on the managers and I do think Roy Hodgson and Graham Potter will believe they can still motivate the players who will miss the presence of the fans in fixtures like this one.

On the face of things you would think this is the kind of fixture that would produce a low-scoring, tight, competitive affair. However goals have not been a massive problem when these teams have faced each other and the early form of both Crystal Palace and Brighton suggests we should see chances in this one too.

Crystal Palace have scored in both home games played this season and they have been creating decent chances in some of the fixtures played. They will be aided by the fact they are facing a Brighton team who have conceded 10 goals in their last 3 games in all competitions, albeit against clubs in the 'Big Six' part of the Division.

On the other side, Brighton have actually looked threatening going forward and have scored in every League game played this season and scored at least twice in their last 3 in the Premier League. Before the defeat at Everton they had been unbeaten in 9 away games in all competitions and Brighton have scored at least twice in 4 away games in succession.

Before Crystal Palace's 0-1 win at the Amex Stadium, both teams had hit the net against the other in 5 successive games in all competitions. The injuries in the home team have yet to clear up which could make them vulnerable to an attack minded Brighton team, but Crystal Palace do have some talented forwards that will believe they can expose the soft underbelly of The Seagulls.

Chances are being created in the games these teams have played so far this season and the last 3 at Selhurst Park since Brighton have returned to the top flight have ended with both teams scoring. I think the chances we saw in their two Premier League fixtures last season will be replicated in this one and both teams should find a way to hit the back of the net.


Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: This London derby could be a really good one if the early season form of Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United is anything to go by.

Both are coming off very impressive away Premier League wins against teams who finished in the top five last season and I think both Jose Mourinho and David Moyes would have preferred to have avoided a two week break between games.

Tottenham Hotspur have had a tough September with the amount of games they had to negotiate, but Mourinho has helped the squad manage that and the 1-6 win at Manchester United will have given the players a huge boost in confidence. They have earned passage to the Europa League Group Stage and progressed to the League Cup Quarter Final, while Tottenham Hotspur could be boosted by the return of Gareth Bale who is in line for his second debut.

The home form will need improving if Tottenham Hotspur are to return to the Champions League at the end of the campaign, but they were very unfortunate not to have earned more points from their games against Everton and Newcastle United. The latter in particular was a day in which Spurs missed a host of chances before a controversial Penalty cost them three points at the very end of the game.

Now they have to make sure they don't underestimate a West Ham United team who battered Wolves and Leicester City in back to back Premier League games. Those were not undeserved results or The Hammers being more clinical than their opponents, but West Ham United created huge opportunities and have confident players who have taken those chances when they have come up.

Even in the 2-1 defeat at Arsenal, West Ham United dominated large portions of the second half and only slightly better finishing would have perhaps earned them the full three points let alone the just the one from a draw.

David Moyes can sometimes be a little cautious, but the style West Ham United have used in their last 3 Premier League games against top eight opponents suggests he will keep faith in what he has his players doing. The squad is as fit as they have been in months and everyone seems to know their role which means West Ham United can more than just contribute to this fixture.

Both teams scoring would not be a huge surprise, and it would be disappointing if this was not one of the better games to watch this weekend. I anticipate a game where both Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham United will go on the attack and look to score goals and it should be one of the higher-scoring games of the weekend.


Leicester City v Aston Villa Pick: There have been some staggering results in the Premier League through the first month of the 2020/21 season and these two clubs have been involved in a number of them.

Leicester City stunned Manchester City 2-5 at the Etihad Stadium before being battered 0-3 at home by West Ham United before the international break. On the other side Aston Villa hammered Liverpool 7-2 at Villa Park two weeks ago and are one of two teams that have won every Premier League game they have played this season.

That start comes weeks after Aston Villa needed to escape the drop on the last day of the 2019/20 season, while Leicester City's defeat to West Ham United came after they had won their opening 3 Premier League games.

With that in mind it can be difficult to know what to expect from teams on a week to week basis, but I do think Leicester City will bounce back and perform much better this Sunday.

They will need to be a lot better because Aston Villa are playing with confidence and have been a much stronger team this side of the resumption of English Football in June. Defensively there have been improvements, but Aston Villa have also looked better in the final third and I do think that makes them dangerous here.

Leicester City did hammer Aston Villa twice in the League last season, but Aston Villa did earn a 1-1 draw here in the League Cup. As I have said, Aston Villa are much improved since these teams last met in March and Leicester City have certainly not been playing like a top eight club over the last five months.

The Foxes have been better at home which deserves some respect, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 here. Leicester City have conceded at least twice in 4 home games in a row and Aston Villa's attacking revival should mean they are able to keep this one competitive.


West Brom v Burnley Pick: I could really pick a number of different ways this fixture could be played out, but that makes it a tough one for Fantasy purposes.

Neither team has looked great at the back, but both have struggled in the final third too.

With that in mind I think it is likely we could see a clean sheet in this fixture for at least one of the teams, but I am not sure which is going to earn it. The upcoming games for both teams suggests their Fantasy assets are not worth much at the moment either and this one fixture I won't be tuning in to this weekend, especially not at the PPV prices they are selling it at.


Leeds United v Wolves Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes on Monday Night Football when Leeds United and Wolves meet in what looks like a potentially good looking game on paper.

Both teams have some strong attacking talents and the football they are able to play means those players are allowed to express themselves.

At the same time there have been one or two vulnerabilities at the back which have been exposed by opponents and that should mean these teams combine for an entertaining game at Elland Road.

Neither manager is one that is going to be happy to settle for a result, although it might be a better point for Wolves than Leeds United on current form.

It is hard to really get a good read on how the teams are playing because of some of the inconsistencies that have been on display. There are times when Leeds United and Wolves have looked really good, but there have also been stretches within games when they have looked vulnerable and perhaps been pushed to the brink.

Out of the two teams it is the losses that Wolves have suffered and the manner of them which is a concern, but I would be surprised if they are not able to play their part here. The Marcelo Bielsa system means they are going to be exposed to the Wolves counter attack, but should also mean Leeds United are able to test a team that have conceded 7 times to Manchester City and West Ham United combined.

The layers don't really seem to agree with me in that there is a real chance of seeing some goals in this one, but I do think both teams will find a way to hit the back of the net. Neither manager is one to really take the foot off the accelerator and that should keep the fixture open and produce at least three goals on the night.

MY PICKS: Everton + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United + 1 Asian Handicap
Sheffield United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Crystal Palace-Brighton Both Teams to Score
Tottenham Hotspur-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Aston Villa + 0.75 Asian Handicap
West Brom-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO
Leeds United-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 5
It is simple...

WILDCARD!!

I've had a miserable time in the first four GameWeeks and the final straw was watching my squad lose considerable value all over the place. The XG numbers have been decent enough, but I have not gotten enough positive returns from the Picks I made and I have to accept that I was wrong and now is the time to make changes.

I did mention that I would be looking to activate the Wildcard after the transfer deadline closed and that is where I am at.

Some players won't be moved, others will be restored in the weeks ahead, but I am going to make a number of changes to the squad to give it a better all around feel. Hopefully it will be the right decisions this time and I will reveal the full team when the deadline hits.

You can check that out on my Twitter page on Saturday morning.

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