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It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Friday, 23 October 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 23-26)

There are only a couple of weeks to go before we get to the November international break, but if you have a quick look at the fixtures of the top teams before that you can see how congested this 2020/21 season is going to be.

That is at least the case through to January with games played every few days by those clubs involved in European competition so it will be important to find the right balance for each upcoming game and make sure the squad remains as fresh as possible.

Watch out for the early deadline in the Fantasy Football this week with a Friday Night Football offering in GW6 and also in GW7... The game is frustrating at times and you can read my thoughts below.


Aston Villa v Leeds United Pick: The early Premier League season has seen a huge amount of goals being scored, but there may be a feeling that things are returning to the mean if you go by the results last weekend.

While there were still some high-scoring fixtures, the last 3 played over the weekend produced a total of two goals.

Two of those fixtures involved Aston Villa and Leeds United and I think we may see another tight affair on Friday Night Football.

That isn't to say that Dean Smith or Marcelo Bielsa are 'negative' managers that will look to keep things tight, but I do think both Aston Villa and Leeds United have struggled to create consistent chances.

Both teams have scored plenty of goals in one match- against Champions Liverpool no less- but the other 3/4 Premier League fixtures played by the two teams have been less dynamic in front of goal.

Aston Villa's other 3 League games have produced a single goal in 2 of them, while the last 2 Leeds United games have both finished 0-1.

A look at the numbers suggests Aston Villa have been the better defensive team and that should give them the edge on Friday Night Football. However I do think Leeds United are a team that can't be underestimated and instead the best approach may be expecting a game where goals are not free-flowing.

It would not be a major surprise if we see one of these teams fail to find the back of the net considering recent defensive performances. There are some talented attackers on display, but I do have to respect the way Aston Villa and Leeds United have defended too.

My edge is with Aston Villa to continue their stunning start to the Premier League season, but the more likely outcome may be one of the teams failing to score. I would also look for the recent trend of Premier League fixtures to continue at least through one more game and that is for this one to finish with less than three goals shared out.

Barring an early goal which would seriously open this fixture up, I am suggesting goals will be at a premium at Villa Park. I am not sure Leeds United will be able to make up for the loss of Kalvin Phillips in the short-term and that may give Aston Villa the narrow victory here.


West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: There have been some impressive early performers in the Premier League in the 2020/21 season and a number of those clubs have been surprising the pre-season predictions for them.

One of those has to be West Ham United who had a horrific opening set of fixtures in the Premier League.

They were beaten by Newcastle United and Arsenal and it looked like David Moyes' team were going to struggle to pick up too many points in the weeks ahead. However they hammered both Wolves and Leicester City and the fight from 3-0 down to earn a draw at Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday was very, very impressive.

West Ham United have pace and quality in the final third which has seen them create plenty of chances and they are hugely dangerous from set pieces. That has to be a concern for Manchester City who may be without both Aymeric Laporte and Nathan Ake for this fixture and there have been moments where Pep Guardiola's men have been looking vulnerable when teams have gone at them.

I fully expect West Ham United to try and do that, although the mental barrier of facing Manchester City at home is a tough one for this group of players. The Hammers have been outscored 22-1 by Manchester City in the last 5 between these clubs at the London Stadium and the visitors have scored at least four times in each of those meetings.

While not being at their free-flowing best, Manchester City have been creating chances and they remain very dangerous when going forward. As impressed as I have been with West Ham United, defensively there are still some holes that can be exploited and Manchester City are as good as any team to be able to do that.

It would be a big surprise if West Ham United crumble in the manner they have in recent seasons against this opponent, but I do still have to give the visitors the edge. They could be boosted by a returning Kevin De Bruyne and Manchester City have Sergio Aguero back amongst the goals during the week.

His presence up front is a key one for Manchester City and I think the visitors will win a high-scoring game on Saturday to open the Premier League schedule for the day.


Fulham v Crystal Palace Pick: The London derby between Fulham and Crystal Palace could have major implications for both clubs in May even though the game is being played in October.

I absolutely expect both Scott Parker and Roy Hodgson to circle fixtures like this one as games in which their respective teams have to pick up points if they are going to survive in the Premier League.

Out of the two managers I would expect Crystal Palace to be the happier if they were offered a point right now, but Fulham are under pressure to earn a first win of the season. In a congested campaign, players don't have time to reset and try and turn the momentum around and that means Fulham can't wait too long for a first win of the season.

They should have really got it last week at Bramall Lane, but a late penalty from Billy Sharp cost Fulham who can't see to escape one or two defensive clangers per game. However, Fulham looked much more threatening going forward than they have for much of the Premier League season and that has to be encouraging when facing a Crystal Palace team who have been hit hard by injuries.

Gary Cahill only just returned, but he could miss out again this weekend having taken a bad tackle from Lewis Dunk at the end of the 1-1 draw with Brighton last weekend. Losing the former England international would be a blow for Crystal Palace who have to deal with the physical presence of Aleksander Mitrovic on Saturday.

Defensively Crystal Palace have not looked that sound, or as sound as Roy Hodgson would want, and I do think Fulham can get on the board here. However, I would expect Crystal Palace to have spaces to exploit on the counter attack and that should see them hurt a Fulham team who have not kept a clean sheet in the Premier League and who have conceded 6 times at home.

There have been better looks defensively from Fulham in the last couple of games, but Crystal Palace have the pace to exploit any gaps left behind. Picking a winner is not easy, but I would not be surprised if both teams hit the net at least once in this one.


Manchester United v Chelsea Pick: It seems the papers and the media are much more interested in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's position as manager of Manchester United than they are about Frank Lampard's at Chelsea, but make no mistake the pressure will be on the latter if his team are beaten at Old Trafford on Saturday.

Neither manager can be completely comfortable in their current roles, but Manchester United have picked up 2 huge wins for Solskjaer this past week which gives them considerable momentum. The win at Paris Saint-Germain was particularly impressive and Manchester United will feel they can snap their poor run at Old Trafford at the start of another very important week.

They should be able to create chances against this Chelsea team despite the improved defensive performance produced by The Blues during the week. I am not sure whether that says more about Sevilla and their sometimes lack of a cutting edge than it does about Chelsea, but it will be a big test for Lampard to find the right balance on Saturday.

His team have conceded at least three times in 2 of their last 3 away Premier League games and also conceded three times to Southampton last weekend. That has to be a worry for him against a Manchester United team who have scored in their last 8 home Premier League games.

However, Chelsea have scored three times in each of their last 3 away Premier League games and have pace and quality in the final third which can't be dismissed. They will be encouraged by the fact that the likes of Newcastle United are still finding plenty of shots against this Manchester United defence and the fact that both Crystal Palace and Tottenham Hotspur came to Old Trafford and left with at least three goals scored.

3 of the 4 games between these clubs last season ended with at least three goals shared out and I do think that will be the outcome of this one. In the 4-0 win for Manchester United at Old Trafford on the opening weekend of the 2019/20 season, chances were created by both teams and I do think we will see that here especially if an early goal opens things up.

No Anthony Martial and potentially Mason Greenwood is a blow to Manchester United, but they still managed four goals at St James' Park. Chelsea should be given a bit more license to attack here as they were in their 5-3 loss at Liverpool at the end of last season and I think the two teams will combine for the goals with the edge going to the home team in my opinion.


Liverpool v Sheffield United Pick: Both Liverpool and Sheffield United will be missing key defensive stalwarts in this Premier League fixture, but you have to believe the greater strength in depth comfortably favours the former.

While Liverpool have not made the greatest start to the defence of their title, they are still a team with goals throughout the front line up and that makes them dangerous. Even prior to Virgil Van Dijk's injury, Liverpool have not been defending as well as they would have liked, but the performance in Amsterdam on Wednesday will give them some belief.

They may still have to use Fabinho as a makeshift centre half, but he has played well for Liverpool in that position and has to be comfortable with the kind of opponents they are facing this weekend. While not at their best at the back, Liverpool are meeting a Sheffield United team struggling for goals and at the moment they have not been creating a host of chances either.

Chris Wilder has to be a little worried about the Sheffield United slump in form which has seeped into the new season after a poor end to the last one. That did come to a kind of end in the 1-1 home draw with Fulham last Sunday, but even that result needed a late Penalty to secure it as goals continue to be an issue for them.

I think that is going to be the case on Saturday evening and Liverpool should have enough going forward to secure the points. The front three all got a relatively early rest on Wednesday so should be ready to go and Liverpool are creating chances.

With Jack O'Connell out and Dean Henderson back at Manchester United, Sheffield United have not looked as convincing at the back as they did in the 2019/20 season. It would be a surprise if they were able to clean sheet in this fixture and I do think Liverpool are likely to have picked up some momentum from their win over Ajax as they look to move past the Merseyside derby and everything that came out of that.


Southampton v Everton Pick: This is one of the matches that has been picked for television coverage in the Premier League this weekend and I am not talking about the rubbish PPV that UK fans have to deal with.

In all honesty it looks like an excellent pick on paper with both Southampton and Everton playing some very good, attacking football which will please the neutrals. Both are in good form too which means confident players and I think it would be a big surprise if we were not treated to a few goals from the fixture.

Southampton have bounced back from a poor start to the season which culminated in the drubbing at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur and their 3-3 draw at Chelsea shows this is not a squad intimidated by 'big clubs'. After the resumption of play they beat Manchester City at home and Southampton have won 3 of their last 5 at St Mary's as they look to take the game to the League leaders.

It is still a little funny thinking of Everton like that, but they remain top of the pile after coming out of the controversial Merseyside derby with perhaps an undeserved point. For long periods they played well, but Everton are continuing to show a vulnerability at the back and will be missing a key attacking piece in Richarlison for the next few games.

Jordan Pickford has not been in the best form and will be dealing with the additional scrutiny after the tackle which looks to have ended Virgil Van Dijk's season. He is playing behind a defence which has not kept a clean sheet in their last 6 in all competitions and have conceded at least two goals in 4 of those games.

That is an area Southampton look capable of exploiting, although the home team are also one that can be gotten at. With James Rodriguez and Dominic Calvert-Lewin in the form they are in, I would expect Everton to threaten even without Richarlison and both teams hitting the net has to be expected.

They are creating chances, but neither defence looks that impressive- even Southampton's two clean sheets came against goal-shy West Brom and Burnley- and the last 7 between these clubs has seen both teams hit the back of the net.

5 of the last 8 have ended with three or more goals shared out including the last time Everton visited St Mary's and I think that is the likely outcome of this one. Losing James Rodriguez and Richarlison is a potential huge blow to Everton, but they can still play their part in this fixture.


Wolves v Newcastle United Pick: The second Premier League game to be broadcasted live in the UK on Sunday comes from Molineux and it may not be as entertaining as I believe the first one is going to be.

Both Wolves and Newcastle United have made a positive start to the 2020/21 season, but neither is a side you would consider as being blessed with a lot of goals.

Wolves are hard to back when you think of their struggles to create chances with their new approach, although they have been stout at the back and secured back to back 1-0 wins. Even then they can't really be appealing at odds on to win any game, although I do think they are deserving of being the favourites in this one.

Steve Bruce has done well as manager of Newcastle United, even if the fans are not easily impressed, and he is achieving what he is tasked to do. His team have played well enough in the early stages of the new campaign, but the 1-4 defeat to Manchester United would have hurt last week.

They were also very fortunate to come away from Tottenham Hotspur with a draw thanks to a controversial Penalty awarded in injury time, but Newcastle United have to be respected for managing three 1-1 draws in a row against Wolves.

Wolves have largely outplayed Newcastle United in those games and have offered up very few opportunities, but The Magpies have been clinical. In the back to back 1-1 draws at Molineux, Newcastle United have scored from their few chances and managed to hang on for the point and you have to think there is a possibility of that happening again considering the lack of goals in the home team.

However I do think Wolves will edge to the victory here, although I would not anticipate a lot of goals. Two might be enough to secure the points and Wolves created enough in their last home game with Fulham to believe they can do that here.

Wolves have won 19 Premier League games at home since returning to the top flight, but only 2 of those have featured more than four goals. I would be surprised if this one was to do that and I think a narrow Wolves win is the most likely outcome against a Newcastle United team who have only conceded 1 goal in their last 3 away Premier League fixtures.


Arsenal v Leicester City Pick: A lot of the clubs involved in European competition will know how important it is to make sure the squad is as fresh as possible with games being played every three or four days through to January.

Both Arsenal and Leicester City won important games on Match Day 1 of the Europa League Group Stage, but they return to Premier League action on Sunday. The two teams were both narrowly beaten last weekend, but they are both in the top five of the early Premier League table and will feel this is a big chance to build some momentum.

No one will be surprised that Arsenal are the favourites for the fixture, but I also think they are a team that are hard to trust.

Without a doubt Mikel Arteta has improved the squad and made them a bit more resilient, but his style of football has not led to an overload of shots and defensively there has been holes that opponents have not fully exploited. I am not sure Leicester City will be the one to do that considering their own recent form and the potential absence of Jamie Vardy, but The Foxes are a pretty solid team defensively even without Caglar Soyuncu.

That has to at least give them a chance to stay in this game and try and earn a result, while Leicester City's best results have come away from home in the early weeks of the season. They showed some toughness to come away from the Emirates Stadium with a point in July in what was a tight game and I am expecting this one to go the same way.

A narrow home win can't be ruled out and Arsenal games at the Emirates Stadium has seen both teams get on the scoreboard in recent times. However those goals have come from limited chances and I am expecting this one to be a bit tighter between two clubs who will be looking for a top four finish in the Premier League this season.

The last 3 games between Leicester City and Arsenal have all ended with less than three goals shared out and I think that may be the outcome of this one. Those games have tended to see late strikes and it would not be a big surprise if one of these teams is leading late when either the team pushing gets back into things or concedes another to end the contest.


Brighton v West Brom Pick: Better finishing would have had Brighton flying much higher up the League table than they currently are, but the performances will encourage Graham Potter. It would have been hard to pick his players up if they had lost at Crystal Palace last Sunday, but the late goal to secure a draw should have the team ready to go this week.

They deserved more than that in reality, but the point snapped a poor run of form and that is important. Brighton have lost both home League games played, but they have pushed both Chelsea and Manchester United and there is no doubt the level of competition comes down significantly on Monday.

That is no disrespect to West Brom, but Slaven Bilic's men have struggled at this level and were fortunate to even earn promotion at the back end of last season. That poor ending has seeped over into the new campaign and The Baggies were perhaps unsurprisingly involved in the first goalless draw in the Premier League when hosting Burnley last week.

West Brom have simply not been creating a lot of chances and that puts additional pressure on them defensively. Unfortunately for them, The Baggies have looked far from watertight at the back and I do think this Brighton team can expose those issues.

It does have to be noted that for all the chances that Brighton do create, they can be a little hit and miss in the final third. The two goals scored against Manchester United is only the fourth time in 15 home Premier League games Brighton have scored more than a single goal and that has to be a worry for the manager despite the improved playing style and chances that have been created.

They are facing a defensively weak West Brom team and I think that gives Brighton the edge, although odds on quotes are tough to swallow. The home team have conceded a lot of goals this season, but those have come in the defeats to Chelsea, Manchester United and Everton.

In the win over Newcastle United and the draw with Crystal Palace, Brighton have conceded a total of 1 goal and I think they are going to edge to a low(ish) scoring win.

I simply don't believe West Brom can create a lot of chances and score more than a single goal here and that should be good enough for Brighton to earn the victory as long as they are a touch more clinical in the final third.


Burnley v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes from Turf Moor and both Burnley and Tottenham Hotspur will be looking for a spark to their domestic season.

That might be a surprising statement about Tottenham Hotspur, but 8 points from a possible 15 is not the greatest return considering the fixture list Jose Mourinho's team have had. A late controversial Penalty and then a stunning collapse has seen Spurs drop four home points against Newcastle United and West Ham United, but Tottenham Hotspur have been comfortable in their system away from home.

Defensively there are question marks, but no one will be worrying about the attacking intent Tottenham Hotspur have played with. They are scoring plenty of goals from the huge amount of chances being created and Tottenham Hotspur have managed at least three in their last 4 games in a row in all competitions.

That is going to be a challenge for Burnley who are missing key defensive players and who have struggled out of the gate. They have shown some resiliency at times, but Sean Dyche will know his team are unlikely to pick up points in the short-term unless they can find a better cutting edge in the final third.

We may see that in the weeks ahead, but Burnley will struggle with the balance in this one as they look to contain a free-scoring Tottenham Hotspur team. They do have a decent home record against Tottenham Hotspur which should give the players a boost in confidence, but I do think Mourinho's team will prove to be a little too good on the day.

With the goals Tottenham Hotspur have been producing, I think they will be able to pick up the three points on a ground where they have not always enjoyed their experiences.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa-Leeds United Both Teams to Score- NO
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Fulham-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score
Manchester United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool Win to Nil
Southampton-Everton Over 2.5 Goals
Wolves & Under 4.5 Goals
Brighton & Under 4.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 6
It's only a game...

But it can be one of the more frustrating First World problems and one that I am feeling in the last month.

Making decisions that will make or break the week is a common feeling for Fantasy players throughout the world, whether it is those playing the NFL, Premier League, NBA or other Leagues.

When should you hold and when should you twist? It can make a Overall Ranking or break it and after playing my WildCard last time out I have to admit I was still left feeling short.

After losing 400K on my team value from my three forwards I had to make changes up front- the idea to bring in Harry Kane and Captaining him worked, but losing faith in Che Adams and Timo Werner came back to haunt me as both combined for three goals and two assists in Chelsea's 3-3 draw with Southampton.

The kicker was bringing in Richarlison and having him sent off in the last minute of the Merseyside derby after hitting the post earlier in the day. I also removed Andy Robertson (an assist) and Marcus Rashford (a goal) and I have to admit I have been left largely frustrated despite picking up my best points tally since GW1.


I am usually a pretty calm player though and I think that has to be the case going forward- the only transfer I am going to make this week is removing Richarlison who is not available for three weeks anyway.

Do I go back to the Che Adams well and expect it to be largely dry despite the underlying numbers being as impressive as they are? Or do I perhaps pick a Penalty taker in Aleksander Mitrovic who is leading the line for Fulham ahead of three fixtures that look positive on paper.

I have yet to take a hit this season and I am going to maintain that streak with the squad looking capable of handling the next couple of weeks and rolling a transfer through the international break.

Any decision I make will be with GW8 in mind when Manchester City host Liverpool and Everton host Manchester United. It is also a day when Aston Villa have to play at Arsenal so any attacker I bring in here will be coming in as a starter for that GW.

With the way my luck has gone through the first six weeks of this crazy season I am sure whoever I pick will have a grand total of 3 points over the next three weeks compared with the other option who will bang in two hat-tricks!


The Captain choice was fairly simple for me this week- it is either Mohamed Salah facing Sheffield United at home or Harry Kane in supreme form heading to Burnley. Both had enough rest during the week to be expected to be given the start in the upcoming fixtures, but my lean is towards Salah who is playing at home.

Either wouldn't be a bad pick, while those looking for a risk may target Jack Grealish against an attack minded Leeds United who are without Liam Cooper and Kalvin Phillips this week. That defensive cover may leave Leeds United more vulnerable, but I think we are early enough in the season to not need to take too many risks here and going with Salah looks the sensible choice.

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