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Saturday 3 October 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 3-4)

The final weekend before a two week international break kicks off on Saturday morning with Chelsea looking for a victory and all ten Premier League games are going to have live television coverage in the United Kingdom through to Sunday evening.

I will have a few thoughts about the GW4 in the Fantasy Football game below, but before that you can read my thoughts about those Premier League games coming up.


Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: The first game in the Premier League this weekend comes from Stamford Bridge and Frank Lampard will be looking to just go into the international break with a little bit of positive momentum.

Going out of the League Cup at Tottenham Hotspur on Penalties and losing to Liverpool before falling 3-0 down at West Brom in the Premier League is not where Chelsea fans would have expected to see their team after a month of football considering the investment made into the side.

Individual errors have been a real problem for Chelsea, much as it was last season too, but they have been creating chances. Injuries are not helping them, but Lampard will be demanding one more big effort before reinforcements will return after the internationals.

They will have to be careful against a Crystal Palace team who have started the season better than expected. This is a team with pace and a real ability to get into positive positions on the counter attack as they showed in their win at Manchester United.

Controlling that counter attack won't be easy for Chelsea unless they are better collectively when it comes to defending, but they have enjoyed playing Crystal Palace in recent times. The Blues have beaten them 3 times in a row at Stamford Bridge and the last two wins have come by at least two goal margins.

With the squad still strong enough, I think Chelsea will be able to get the better of Crystal Palace again. There are goals in this Chelsea team and I expect Frank Lampard to be aware of the counter attacking ability of the visitors as he was last season.

I have to respect the performance at Old Trafford, but Chelsea should be able to cope a little better than Manchester United did that day. That should lead to a good win for Chelsea ahead of a very busy October and early November coming up.


Everton v Brighton Pick: You have to give Carlo Ancelotti some credit for the way Everton have opened up this season and the fans have to believe that their team are going to be able to maintain their 100% start to the season in this one.

They have a very good home record against Brighton in recent seasons and Everton have scored at least three goals in each of their home games over the last month. Granted two of those fixtures came in the League Cup and West Brom were reduced to ten men in the Premier League game, but Everton are creating chances and look to be playing with real confidence.

In players like Dominic Calvert-Lewin they have someone who doesn't look like missing at the moment and should have an extra bounce in the step after being called up by England for the first time.

Everton are also facing a Brighton team who have given up some big chances at the back, although there has to be a respect for the visitors who are unbeaten in 8 away Premier League games.

Graham Potter's men may have lost last weekend, but they deserved so much more against Manchester United and it could easily be argued that they are unfortunate not to have more points on the board. His style means Brighton will get forward and look to cause problems for Everton and I think the home team have shown a little vulnerability especially with Jordan Pickford in goal.

I expect the visitors to be in this game, but at the moment it is hard to oppose Everton. They look to be in form and if Richarlison is passed fit I think they will edge to the win in a game that does feature goals.

It did end 1-0 to Everton in the corresponding fixture last season, but there were a host of chances for both teams in that one. Both look to be showing a little more composure in front of goal at this moment and I will look for Everton to win a game featuring at least two goals.


Leeds United v Manchester City Pick: Marcelo Bielsa and Pep Guardiola famously spent several hours discussing philosophies during a time that the latter was just starting his Coaching career.

Ever since Guardiola has had an immense respect for his counterpart and described Bielsa as the best coach in the world.

Respect is one thing, but he won't have an inferior complex and Manchester City are going into Elland Road as a big favourite despite the heavy home loss to Leicester City. They bounced back from that defeat to beat Burnley in the League Cup during the week, and Manchester City have won 3 away Premier League games in a row while scoring plenty of goals in that time.

Losing the likes of Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus is a blow to the way Manchester City want to play, but they have shown they can cope with the performance at Burnley. Manchester City also should not be concerned about a team sitting in as they were when they played Leicester City last weekend and the spaces that Leeds United do leave behind should be exploited.

In saying that, Leeds United will also get forward in numbers and challenge a Manchester City defence that looked shot in their defeat last Sunday. Leeds United have scored plenty of goals and in their last two League games they have been creating chances, although the absence of Jack Harrison and Pablo Hernandez does hurt them.

I don't believe Bielsa will allow his team to sit and be hard to beat but instead will want to take the game to Manchester City. The evidence is the way they approached the FA Cup game against Arsenal last season and the opening League defeat at Liverpool and that should be music to the ears of the Manchester City players who are superior to their Leeds United peers.

It would be a real surprise if the home team do not cause problems of their own, but Manchester City should have spaces to exploit in this one and I think they win a high-scoring fixture with a little room to spare.


Newcastle United v Burnley Pick: If it wasn't for the staggered kick off times being used by the Premier League while the fans are not able to attend games, I don't think any of the broadcasters would have been rushing out to pick this one for television coverage.

That is no disrespect to Newcastle United or Burnley, but injuries are hurting both clubs and I think the managers would happily take the international break right now. It would give them time to bring back key names for the squad and both Steve Bruce and Sean Dyche will also be hoping their clubs are able to bring in some more bodies before the transfer deadline hits on Monday.

For now the concentration will be on trying to add to the points tally before the break in play.

Neither Burnley nor Newcastle United have been creating a lot of chances, but both managers will also set their team up to be difficult to beat and I do think goals will be in short supply. There was just a single strike across the two Premier League games between them last season and 4 of the last 6 has seen one of the clubs fail to hit the net.

With chances coming at a premium, I do think there will be a real possibility of one of the teams failing to score in this one. The new handball rule could change things very quickly, while set pieces are always a threat for both Burnley and Newcastle United, but the two defences have been on top so far this season.

Limited opportunities are being put together when these teams move into the final third and I think this may not be the most entertaining Saturday night game.


Leicester City v West Ham United Pick: Both of these teams will be very pleased with their opening performances even if it is Leicester City who have secured the more consistent results.

Better finishing and a bit more luck might have given West Ham United far more than the 3 points they have earned so far, but the 4-0 win over Wolves shows what this squad is capable of. The heavy loss at Everton in the League Cup also shows the defensive vulnerabilities that exist in the West Ham United squad and I do think that is where Leicester City have to try and get forward and put pressure on their visitors.

You don't always know what to expect from Leicester City when they are being asked to break down opponents, but the 4-2 win over Burnley in the first home League game will give them belief. Confidence has to be at a very high level after the win over Manchester City last weekend anyway and Leicester City did beat West Ham United twice last season.

The 4-1 win at the King Power Stadium before the suspension of League Football around Europe in March shows what Leicester City can do when they put their football together. Injuries are a slight concern with some key names likely to be absent on Sunday, but Leicester City should still have enough quality to get the job done and potentially go into the international break leading the Division.

I do think West Ham United will cause some problems with the levels they have been producing in the first month. They created a lot of chances in the last two games against Arsenal and Wolves so The Hammers won't be intimidated by this fixture, but this is a confident Leicester City team and I think they will edge a high-scoring game.


Southampton v West Brom Pick: There were a lot of people tipping up Southampton as being capable of a strong season who would have been surprised by their opening two League defeats.

The win over Burnley last weekend was a big one for The Saints and they will be looking at matches like this one as being very important to their survival bid. Southampton were poor at home last season, but they did create chances and ended the season with 2 wins from 3 Premier League games.

Better finishing would have put Southampton in a strong position to perhaps beat Tottenham Hotspur, but they collapsed when the chances came and went in the 2-5 defeat. However there was enough positive vibes from the players to believe they can do better and I think they are going to enjoy playing West Brom if the latter keep defending as they have done.

Slaven Bilic was furious that Chelsea's equaliser was allowed to stand last week, but he should be pretty worried about the defending. Despite a 3-0 lead, it always felt West Brom were vulnerable to Chelsea and in the first three games The Baggies have given up some huge opportunities.

The fact is that they haven't gotten away with it either having conceded at least three times in each Premier League game played. They also conceded twice in the eventual Penalties defeat to Brentford in the League Cup and I do think Southampton are going to cause plenty of problems for them.

West Brom should play their part with their speedy counter attacks likely to find spaces, but I don't think Southampton will let them off the hook when they get forward. With Danny Ings the home team have goals in the squad and I think they win this one in another potentially high-scoring Premier League fixture.


Arsenal v Sheffield United Pick: There has been a trend of seeing some high scoring games in the Premier League since the resumption of play in September and I think that is partly down to the lack of fitness some clubs have.

A short turnaround between seasons was always going to be difficult to deal with and having four Rounds of the League Cup scheduled to be played within a month has not helped.

The short off-season also means momentum can seep into this campaign from the last even more so than normal. Chris Wilder has to be worried about that now Sheffield United have lost 6 League games in a row and the lack of goals is a real issue for The Blades.

It is not for the lack of chances either with Sheffield United guilty of missing some glaring opportunities in the last two games including a missed penalty. Those lack of goals is certainly one of the reasons they are the underdog in North London this weekend, although Arsenal are still making some defensive mistakes which are allowing teams to create chances.

Both West Ham United and Liverpool did that so Sheffield United should arrive at the Emirates Stadium believing they can get off the mark in the goals for and points column.

However it will be a challenge to keep Arsenal out considering the early levels being produced by Sheffield United. The Gunners should be well rested despite having been scheduled to play on Thursday and they have been creating chances even if not at the rate to suggest they deserve to have 6 points on the board.

Under Mikel Arteta Arsenal definitely seem to be playing with a bit more confidence in front of goal and they remain a clinical team which is unsurprising considering the attacking talents at their disposal.

Arsenal will want to get forward and they do have a team that will have success, but I am expecting Sheffield United to find a bit more fortune in front of goal if nothing else. They can't keep missing big chances and I think this will help this game produce at least three goals on the day.


Wolves v Fulham Pick: Now I know Fulham are not going to lose every Premier League game they play this season, but at the moment it is very difficult to see where they are going to get their points from.

Certainly not enough points to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

Scott Parker wants his team to play football, but the defensive mistakes being made are absolutely embarrassing and putting the manager under pressure. You can't concede three times in every League game played and expect to pick up results, but that is what Fulham have done after losing 0-3 at home to Aston Villa last week.

Defensive signings are likely to be made before the deadline, but those are not arriving just yet and Fulham look vulnerable.

To make matters more difficult, they are facing an angry Wolves team who were humiliated in their 4-0 defeat to West Ham United last Sunday. That is back to back losses for Wolves in the Premier League, but they have not lost 3 League games in a row since November 2018.

They have lost back to back League games four times since those three defeats in a row and Wolves have won 2 and drawn 2 the next time out. Being back at home should help and I do think Wolves have pace and power in the final third which will give them a real edge in this clash.

Wolves are simply going up against a team that offers up two or three really good chances every game they play and in Raul Jimenez they have someone who can gobble up those opportunities. Barring some huge turnaround in their defensive resiliency in the last couple of days, I think Wolves win this fixture.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There have been some petty words back and forth between Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Jose Mourinho in the lead up to this huge fixture in the Premier League.

Those are going to mean nothing when Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet on Sunday and this is a massive game for the two clubs. While Tottenham Hotspur look to have gotten the majority of their business done in the transfer market, Manchester United are under pressure to back their manager and that will only increase tenfold if they were to lose another game at Old Trafford.

It won't be lost on Jose Mourinho that he can put his successor in a heap of trouble by winning here and while he will speak about Spurs alone, I have no doubt it is something he is thinking about privately.

The schedule is not ideal having played Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday and now Sunday again. However Tottenham Hotspur have built up some momentum with their wins in the Cup competitions and the side have played some good attacking football, albeit against teams not quite of the level of Manchester United.

It has not been the best start for Manchester United and their own defensive shortcomings have to be a worry ahead of this Premier League fixture. Brighton should have beaten United, let alone draw, last weekend and Crystal Palace showed how effective the counter attack can be.

Both teams will feel they are better on the front foot in this one and I do think that will be the approach they take. Manchester United have to want to play attacking football at Old Trafford and Tottenham Hotspur will sense a vulnerability in the home team.

With their own defensive issues clear to see in the opening month of the season, I would be surprised if we don't see three or more goals scored for the third time in a row between these clubs at Old Trafford.


Aston Villa v Liverpool Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes from Villa Park where the improved hosts really get to test how far they've come along when they meet the Champions.

Aston Villa have definitely improved defensively since the three month break between March and June and Dean Smith's team have been able to produce a lot more positive results thanks to that. There is some quality going forward, although this is still a huge challenge for them against a club who have won 6 games in a row on this ground in the Premier League.

Last season Aston Villa came awfully close to cracking the code as they led Liverpool into the dying embers of the fixture, but two late goals turned things around for the visitors.

They deserve to win that day, but it was a much closer and more competitive meeting when they played at Anfield in early July. On that day Aston Villa were able to restrict the chances that Liverpool created, although it has to be said there is something of the inevitable about this Liverpool team.

Like many top teams before them, there is a real sense that Liverpool are going to get things right no matter the situation at the moment. Even when they are under pressure they seem to put the right football together to earn the victory, or they have a couple of big defensive moments to swing the momentum towards them.

That does make it very hard to oppose Liverpool as it was to oppose Manchester City two seasons ago.

With the quality Liverpool have going forward you have to favour them to win most games they play, but Aston Villa have shown resiliency and I think they can make this competitive. It is harder for the underdog without the fans in the Stadium, but Aston Villa have beaten Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Sheffield United in that time and pushed Chelsea all the way.

They were giving Manchester United as good as they got before a controversial penalty was awarded against Aston Villa and I do think Dean Smith will have his troops ready to compete.

I would be very surprised if Aston Villa were to capitulate and lose really heavily in this one, although opposing Liverpool is a hard task these days.

MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO
Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals
Southampton & Over 1.5 Goals
Arsenal-Sheffield United Over 2.5 Goals
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals
Aston Villa + 1.75 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 4
After a pretty solid GameWeek 1, the last two weeks have been disappointing to say the least with both finishing under 50 points for the week.

That is not going to cut it although I think this could be a week in which it may be wise for me to stay steady and have two transfers to use following the international break.

I do think there are a couple of players I need to replace in my squad and I can use a transfer this week to move one of those out, although at this stage I want to make sure I am in a position to make the right choices once the real life transfer deadline is hit.

The kind of names that can't be long for my team are Luke Shaw, Ben Davies, Ayoze Perez, Tomas Soucek, Che Adams and Timo Werner.

Take away the two defenders and the other four have had their opportunities to put a big haul on the board, but missed chances and some poor luck has accounted for that and unsurprisingly some of the value has already been lost.

I still believe Adams and Werner can come good and I am willing to give Perez one more chance knowing the injuries in the Leicester City line up and with a very good looking home game come.

At this point you can't win any major prizes in your Leagues, but with the Wild Card to be used this side of the New Year it may be the best time to play it before GW5.

There have been some frustrating moments in the first three GWs of the season, but I am hoping some of the luck returns to my eleven selected before the two week break to have a real think about how I want to approach my team going forward.

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