College Football Week 6 Picks 2025 (Friday 3rd October-Saturday 4th October)

When you look back at the results and being on the wrong side of four results by a combined nine points, frustration will set in.

That was the way things worked out in Week 5 and it could have been a much different story if not for a few breaks going the wrong way.

There is still a number of weeks to negotiate between now and the National Championship Game in January and so time to turn things back around, but it would be good to snap a poor run with a solid week.

West Virginia Mountaineers @ BYU Cougars Pick: They opened the 2025 Big 12 schedule play with a road win and the BYU Cougars (4-0) have to feel very confident about their chances of going a little better than last season. Missing out on the tie-breaker for the Championship Game will have stung, but this is a team that looks like it is playing with a real ambition in mind and they are continuing to roll even as injuries have been piling up.

It is the depth that looks like being a potential issue for the Cougars with the Running Back position causing most concern, but starter LJ Marin is available on this short week.

The Cougars are perhaps fortunate to be facing the West Virginia Mountaineers (2-3) who have lost both Big 12 Conference games without offering much resistance at all. Those defeats to the Kansas Jayhawks and Utah Utes have been by 31 points and 34 points respectively and the upset over the Pittsburgh Panthers feels like a long time ago for the team.

Much like the hosts, the West Virginia Mountaineers are a little banged up, although they are down more important players.

In Week 6, the Mountaineers are set to be without starting Quarter Back Nicco Marchial again having seen him miss the thumping loss to the Utah Utes. Backup Jaylen Hendersen did not impress at all and was benched before the second half began, and it will be a real test for him if he is called to start again or for Khalil Wilkins, despite the solid enough performance in the second half against the Utes.

This Cougars Defensive Line is stout up front and they will look to clamp down on the Mountaineers running game and force the Quarter Back to beat them, no matter whether that is Hendersen or Wilkins.

Playing from behind the chains will mean having to deal with a real pass rush pressure and trying to attack a Cougars Secondary that have continued to produce at a high level.

Turnovers are a potential problem for the Mountaineers and those extra possessions would give the home favourite a huge chance to cover what is a big line.

The difference between the teams Offensively is that the BYU Offensive Line is likely to establish the run and give LJ Martin plenty of room to keep his personal numbers ticking over nicely. An extra wrinkle was seen last week with Quarter Back Bear Bachmeier picking up almost 100 yards on the ground and it should mean the Cougars are playing in front of the chains for much of the evening.

It only makes life easier for Bachmeier if he steps back to throw the ball down the field against a Mountaineers Secondary that have allowed Quarter Backs to have success against them. There should be time given to the Bear Bachmeier if the BYU Cougars are running the ball as expected, and it should mean BYU are able to keep the ball moving effectively and efficiently for much of the contest.

Covering this big number is not going to be easy for a Cougars team that have not been that accustomed to being set as a home favourite, but they have been playing with real confidence.

At the same time, West Virginia have struggled massively since stepping up into Big 12 play and the backup Quarter Backs could have real issues making play against a good looking Cougars Defensive unit. A turnover or two may be needed to get over this line, but the Cougars can give the Offensive a couple of short fields with three and outs and that should help the BYU at least get up to a 20 point win.

Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: In previous years, one defeat in the regular season would have been enough to cost a team the opportunity to finish as National Champions, but that is not the case in 2025.

With that in mind, it is important for the Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) to get back on track after losing to the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 5. The schedule will still pit them against the likes of Ole Miss and Texas to show the Playoff Committee what they are all about, while the SEC is a tough Conference and it would be a really big surprise if two unbeaten teams were to compete in the Championship Game in a couple of months time.

The Bulldogs have had some difficult tests against the Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) in recent years, despite continuing to find a way to earn the win- last season the Wildcats came incredibly close to a home upset, but were beaten 13-12, while they have given the Mississippi Rebels something to think about earlier this season.

A second SEC defeat was more worrying for Kentucky having been crushed by the South Carolina Gamecocks, and the team may be arriving in a tough scheduling spot as well as being banged up at the wrong time.

Kentucky are set to have veteran Quarter Back Zach Calzada back behind Center having missed out with an injury following the defeat to the Mississippi Rebels. Without him, the Wildcats were much more experienced at this important position and they should be much the stronger with Calzada, although there are going to be questions about his overall health.

The match up against this Georgia Defensive unit looks a tough one- the Wildcats want to get behind the Offensive Line and establish the run, while the passing game has been a touch erratic. However, stopping the run has been something that the Georgia Defensive Line pride themselves in doing, and it is actually the Secondary which has been exposed by Tennessee and Alabama.

This time the Bulldogs may feel that their superior talent can come out on top, especially if Zach Calzada's shoulder is still not at 100%. The Bulldogs may also get a little more out of the pass rush against an Offensive Line that has not been as good in pass protection as they have been in run blocking and that should mean Georgia control this game.

There will be some envious eyes in Athens who have one eye on Carson Beck and his performances at Quarter Back for the Miami Hurricanes and so there is some pressure on Gunnar Stockton after a relatively poor performance against Alabama.

It is unlikely to be all on Stockton's arm though with the Bulldogs Offensive Line expected to help establish the run and that should allow the Quarter Back to find a bit more time in the pocket. He is also going to be throwing against a Kentucky Secondary that has struggled to make stops at times and the balance Offensively gives the Bulldogs the platform from which to bounce back from the loss last weekend.

This is a big line, but Head Coach Kirby Smart has led the Bulldogs to a 10-6 record against the spread after a loss.

Last year was a close, competitive battle between these SEC teams, but two years ago Georgia crushed Kentucky by 38 points here and an angry home team may be able to create a couple of turnovers to pull clear in this one.

Clemson Tigers @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The move from the NFL to Head Coach in College for the first time was always going to be a challenge, but the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-2) may have surprised Bill Belichick. The transfer portal can perhaps help turn things around quicker these days than in the past, but the Tar Heels finished 6-7 in 2024 and there will have been a lot of changes for the players to have to take in.

The disappointment is that the Tar Heels have been so uncompetitive when facing the Power 4 teams on the schedule, and they have been outscored 23-82 in those two games.

It makes the wins over outmatched opponents feel a little more than bullying, but the Tar Heels have an opportunity to change the narrative when hosting the Clemson Tigers (1-3).

There have been one or two murmurings of discontent about the job Head Coach Dabo Swinney is doing with the Tigers in recent years, but they were back in the Playoffs in 2024 and won at least ten games again. That helped quiet some of those voices, but it will have been very loud around Swinney over the last couple of weeks after Clemson were blown out by Syracuse and already 0-2 within the Conference.

It is a long path back towards relevancy, and Clemson are clinging on by their fingernails as far as a return to the Playoff is concerned. Winning out is all they can control and the hope is that the two week break will have given the team a chance to reset and get back on the horse.

Cade Klubnik has been one of the leading disappointments early in the 2025 season, but the Quarter Back will feel he is up against a team that will allow him to at least showcase some of his talent.

The help will come from the Offensive Line as they look to establish the run and at least put their Quarter Back in a position where he can throw from in front of the chains. Clemson still have talent and running the ball would also mean Cade Klubnik has time to attack this Secondary, although the lack of a North Carolina pass rush early in the season is a real concern for the Tar Heels.

Like the Tigers, North Carolina are playing after a Bye Week following a crushing defeat to the UCF Knights, while they were battered at home by the TCU Horned Frogs to open the season.

Quarter Back play has been inconsistent and North Carolina may have to start with a backup in Max Johnson if Gio Lopez is still struggling.

Regardless of who plays, the pressure will likely be on their shoulder with the North Carolina Offensive Line yet to find a groove up front to get the run game firing. They are not expected to have a lot of joy against this Clemson Defensive Line, while the Quarter Back, whether that is Lopez or Johnson, have been inconsistent.

This makes it tough to believe the Tar Heels can become the latest to try and exploit the gaps in the Clemson Secondary, while turnovers in the passing game have been costly too.

North Carolina may have some successes having seen the Clemson Defensive unit struggling, but those turnovers could ultimately lean this game in favour of the road team and they can come out on top.

Bill Belichick has a strong record when his team have been set as double digit underdogs, but that is in the NFL and he is facing a Coach who has led his team to an 8-3 record against the spread in the last eleven following a loss. Dabo Swinney has yet to find that Midas touch in 2025, but he has had two weeks to prepare and the Clemson Tigers can produce a win that reminds the rest of the ACC that they are not quite done yet.

Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: Back to back blowout losses will have sent the Wisconsin Badgers (2-2) into the Bye Week with a lot of soul-searching to do.

A loss by 21 points to the Alabama Crimson Tide can be put to the back of the mind, but the Badgers opened Big Ten play with a 17 point home loss to the Maryland Terrapins.

The Head Coach, Luke Fickell, has to be feeling some of the heat having put together a 14-15 record so far in his time in Madison, while the next month will see his Wisconsin team take on Ohio State, Oregon and, first, the Michigan Wolverines (3-1).

Two weeks ago, the Wolverines won an important game in Nebraska to move to 1-0 in Big Ten play and they are set as a considerable favourite to win this one in the home Conference opener. You cannot really argue with that considering what has been seen from the visiting team, and especially not with a Michigan Defensive unit that has looked in good shape for much of the season.

Stopping the run is where the Badgers strength lies, but they are about to be given another significant test when up against this Michigan Offensive Line that wants to bully teams up front. They have opened up some big lanes early in this season and Michigan could have more room if the Badgers are trying to find the answers to protect a Secondary that has given up huge yardage.

Bryce Underwood has perhaps not played at a level where he would be expected to exploit those gaps, but he should be given time and there will perhaps be more opportunities for him. He has at least avoided making big mistakes and the field battle is just as important when it comes to the Michigan Wolverines being in a position to win and perhaps cover this line set.

Through the first four games, Wisconsin have struggled to run the ball and now they are going up against a ferocious Wolverines Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run really well. Keeping the Badgers behind the chains will be seen as a big win and especially with the erratic Quarter Back play that Wisconsin have been getting all season, regardless of who has begun behind Center.

Wisconsin's Offensive Line have not only struggled in run blocking, but have not been able to keep the Quarter Back upright and this Wolverines pass rush could create havoc in the backfield. Forcing the ball to leave the hands quicker than hoped and from third and long spots can lead to big mistakes with the pass rush closing around the Quarter Back and Michigan's Secondary have been able to force turnovers.

That could be key to moving into a position to cover even against this big number and Michigan fans will also not have forgotten the humiliating 38 point home loss to the Badgers in November 2020.

This time it is the Wolverines who can put up some big points and they can take advantage of a Wisconsin team that are 1-6 against the spread when playing a team with rest having also lost their last game.

Texas Longhorns @ Florida Gators Pick: SEC Conference play has begun for all but one school in 2025, but that changes in Week 6 when the Texas Longhorns (3-1) return from a Bye Week to head to Gainesville. The one loss on the resume to the Ohio State Buckeyes is unlikely to be one that forces the Committee to overlook the Longhorns at the end of the season, but Texas fans do know that the team have to improve out of the Bye Week to come through the gauntlet of the SEC schedule.

Revenge will be on the mind of the Florida Gators (1-3) having been blown out by the Longhorns in 2024, but the bigger ambition has to be snapping the three game losing run.

The road losses to the LSU Tigers and Miami Hurricanes have underlined the Offensive issues that the Florida Gators have had all season, while the defeat to the South Florida Bulls is likely going to mean changes at the end of the 2025 campaign.

Simply put, it is difficult to work out how the Gators can have much more success in this one against the Texas Defensive unit that have been pretty well balanced.

As the competition has ramped up, the Gators Offensive Line have simply not been able to find a way to open up the running lanes and they are not expected to get much change out of this Longhorns Defensive Line. A two week preparation may see them look for other ways to get the ground game going, but this is a Longhorns team that will pride themselves on making teams try and beat them from behind the chains and they can certainly do that here.

All of the pressure may be on DJ Lagway, who has not really gotten on track at the Quarter Back position early in 2025.

He is likely to be faced with significant pass rush pressure, while also trying to throw with consistency against this Texas Secondary, and it could be another long day for a Quarter Back who has 61 passing yards in the big loss to the Miami Hurricanes. DJ Lagway did have almost 300 passing yards against the LSU Tigers, but that was a day in which he threw 5 Interceptions and the Gators may be stuck in the mud in The Swamp when trying to put consistent Offensive plays on the board.

If it wasn't for the Florida Gators Defensive unit, games might have seriously got out of hand for the struggling team.

However, it can become a big ask for a team to spend a lot of time on the field and maintain high levels and in the three game losing run, there has been some opportunity for teams to run the ball against the Gators Defensive Line. This is something the Longhorns will look to do and make sure their own Quarter Back is in the best position to succeed.

Arch Manning has not really played to the level that some may have expected, but he is still learning and there are signs he is improving.

He should be faced with limited pass rush pressure and that should give Arch Manning the time to make plays from third and manageable spots on the field and that should keep the Longhorns in decent shape to win on the road.

There are reasons that the Gators should be respected- they have been very good at home when playing with rest (5-0 against the spread), and the Gators are also 6-3 against the spread as the home underdog with Head Coach Billy Napier at the helm.

Florida have revenge on the mind after being humiliated by the Longhorns eleven months ago, and the Texas Longhorns have a poor record when favoured by less than 17 points in the SEC.

These have to give pause for thought, but there is a talent differential on the Offensive side of the ball and Texas may create a turnover or two that allows them to win this one by around 10 points on the road.

Michigan State Spartans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Two Big Ten teams with the same record are hoping to bounce back from Conference losses.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) will be hosting the Michigan State Spartans (3-1) and both have fallen to 0-1 in the loaded Big Ten, which means the losing team can already accept that they are not going to be invited into the Playoff.

Both have a decent win on the board against a Power 4 opponent, while the Cornhuskers at least offered some resistance to the Michigan Wolverines in Week 4.

The same cannot really be said for the Michigan State Spartans who were blown out by the USC Trojans on the same weekend and so it does feel there are more questions for the road team to answer.

Michigan State have to lean on the run against this Cornhuskers Defensive Line and try and keep themselves in third and manageable spots on the field. Doing that will control the tempo of the game, but also take away some of the pressure that is perhaps being felt by Quarter Back Aidan Chiles.

In the main, the Quarter Back has handled that really well, although this is another tough challenge against a Nebraska Secondary that have handled the pass exceptionally.

Out of the two teams, Nebraska should have the greater balance when they have the ball and that could make the difference in this important game for two schools still searching for a way to get back amongst the elite of the Conference and the nation.

The Offensive Line should be able to open up enough holes to ensure the Cornhuskers are in third and manageable spots, while Quarter Back Dylan Raiola is producing at a high level.

He will be encouraged by the spaces that the Spartans Secondary have shown all season and it should mean the home team are able to move the chains with some efficiency. Dylan Raiola has 11 Touchdown passes with just a single Interception so far this season and he should be able to put the Cornhuskers in a position to win the game.

Covering will not be easy if the Spartans establish the run, but Michigan State were well beaten when travelling to USC and this Nebraska team could score every time they have the ball.

One or two stalled drives could put Michigan State under pressure and throwing against this Nebraska Secondary has proven to be tough enough to imagine the home team will do enough to win and cover.

MY PICKS: BYU Cougars - 19.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 13.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Nebraska Cornhuskers - 11.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)

Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (October 3-4)

The final weekend before a two week international break kicks off on Saturday morning with Chelsea looking for a victory and all ten Premier League games are going to have live television coverage in the United Kingdom through to Sunday evening.

I will have a few thoughts about the GW4 in the Fantasy Football game below, but before that you can read my thoughts about those Premier League games coming up.

Chelsea v Crystal Palace Pick: The first game in the Premier League this weekend comes from Stamford Bridge and Frank Lampard will be looking to just go into the international break with a little bit of positive momentum.

Going out of the League Cup at Tottenham Hotspur on Penalties and losing to Liverpool before falling 3-0 down at West Brom in the Premier League is not where Chelsea fans would have expected to see their team after a month of football considering the investment made into the side.

Individual errors have been a real problem for Chelsea, much as it was last season too, but they have been creating chances. Injuries are not helping them, but Lampard will be demanding one more big effort before reinforcements will return after the internationals.

They will have to be careful against a Crystal Palace team who have started the season better than expected. This is a team with pace and a real ability to get into positive positions on the counter attack as they showed in their win at Manchester United.

Controlling that counter attack won't be easy for Chelsea unless they are better collectively when it comes to defending, but they have enjoyed playing Crystal Palace in recent times. The Blues have beaten them 3 times in a row at Stamford Bridge and the last two wins have come by at least two goal margins.

With the squad still strong enough, I think Chelsea will be able to get the better of Crystal Palace again. There are goals in this Chelsea team and I expect Frank Lampard to be aware of the counter attacking ability of the visitors as he was last season.

I have to respect the performance at Old Trafford, but Chelsea should be able to cope a little better than Manchester United did that day. That should lead to a good win for Chelsea ahead of a very busy October and early November coming up.

Everton v Brighton Pick: You have to give Carlo Ancelotti some credit for the way Everton have opened up this season and the fans have to believe that their team are going to be able to maintain their 100% start to the season in this one.

They have a very good home record against Brighton in recent seasons and Everton have scored at least three goals in each of their home games over the last month. Granted two of those fixtures came in the League Cup and West Brom were reduced to ten men in the Premier League game, but Everton are creating chances and look to be playing with real confidence.

In players like Dominic Calvert-Lewin they have someone who doesn't look like missing at the moment and should have an extra bounce in the step after being called up by England for the first time.

Everton are also facing a Brighton team who have given up some big chances at the back, although there has to be a respect for the visitors who are unbeaten in 8 away Premier League games.

Graham Potter's men may have lost last weekend, but they deserved so much more against Manchester United and it could easily be argued that they are unfortunate not to have more points on the board. His style means Brighton will get forward and look to cause problems for Everton and I think the home team have shown a little vulnerability especially with Jordan Pickford in goal.

I expect the visitors to be in this game, but at the moment it is hard to oppose Everton. They look to be in form and if Richarlison is passed fit I think they will edge to the win in a game that does feature goals.

It did end 1-0 to Everton in the corresponding fixture last season, but there were a host of chances for both teams in that one. Both look to be showing a little more composure in front of goal at this moment and I will look for Everton to win a game featuring at least two goals.

Leeds United v Manchester City Pick: Marcelo Bielsa and Pep Guardiola famously spent several hours discussing philosophies during a time that the latter was just starting his Coaching career.

Ever since Guardiola has had an immense respect for his counterpart and described Bielsa as the best coach in the world.

Respect is one thing, but he won't have an inferior complex and Manchester City are going into Elland Road as a big favourite despite the heavy home loss to Leicester City. They bounced back from that defeat to beat Burnley in the League Cup during the week, and Manchester City have won 3 away Premier League games in a row while scoring plenty of goals in that time.

Losing the likes of Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus is a blow to the way Manchester City want to play, but they have shown they can cope with the performance at Burnley. Manchester City also should not be concerned about a team sitting in as they were when they played Leicester City last weekend and the spaces that Leeds United do leave behind should be exploited.

In saying that, Leeds United will also get forward in numbers and challenge a Manchester City defence that looked shot in their defeat last Sunday. Leeds United have scored plenty of goals and in their last two League games they have been creating chances, although the absence of Jack Harrison and Pablo Hernandez does hurt them.

I don't believe Bielsa will allow his team to sit and be hard to beat but instead will want to take the game to Manchester City. The evidence is the way they approached the FA Cup game against Arsenal last season and the opening League defeat at Liverpool and that should be music to the ears of the Manchester City players who are superior to their Leeds United peers.

It would be a real surprise if the home team do not cause problems of their own, but Manchester City should have spaces to exploit in this one and I think they win a high-scoring fixture with a little room to spare.

Newcastle United v Burnley Pick: If it wasn't for the staggered kick off times being used by the Premier League while the fans are not able to attend games, I don't think any of the broadcasters would have been rushing out to pick this one for television coverage.

That is no disrespect to Newcastle United or Burnley, but injuries are hurting both clubs and I think the managers would happily take the international break right now. It would give them time to bring back key names for the squad and both Steve Bruce and Sean Dyche will also be hoping their clubs are able to bring in some more bodies before the transfer deadline hits on Monday.

For now the concentration will be on trying to add to the points tally before the break in play.

Neither Burnley nor Newcastle United have been creating a lot of chances, but both managers will also set their team up to be difficult to beat and I do think goals will be in short supply. There was just a single strike across the two Premier League games between them last season and 4 of the last 6 has seen one of the clubs fail to hit the net.

With chances coming at a premium, I do think there will be a real possibility of one of the teams failing to score in this one. The new handball rule could change things very quickly, while set pieces are always a threat for both Burnley and Newcastle United, but the two defences have been on top so far this season.

Limited opportunities are being put together when these teams move into the final third and I think this may not be the most entertaining Saturday night game.

Leicester City v West Ham United Pick: Both of these teams will be very pleased with their opening performances even if it is Leicester City who have secured the more consistent results.

Better finishing and a bit more luck might have given West Ham United far more than the 3 points they have earned so far, but the 4-0 win over Wolves shows what this squad is capable of. The heavy loss at Everton in the League Cup also shows the defensive vulnerabilities that exist in the West Ham United squad and I do think that is where Leicester City have to try and get forward and put pressure on their visitors.

You don't always know what to expect from Leicester City when they are being asked to break down opponents, but the 4-2 win over Burnley in the first home League game will give them belief. Confidence has to be at a very high level after the win over Manchester City last weekend anyway and Leicester City did beat West Ham United twice last season.

The 4-1 win at the King Power Stadium before the suspension of League Football around Europe in March shows what Leicester City can do when they put their football together. Injuries are a slight concern with some key names likely to be absent on Sunday, but Leicester City should still have enough quality to get the job done and potentially go into the international break leading the Division.

I do think West Ham United will cause some problems with the levels they have been producing in the first month. They created a lot of chances in the last two games against Arsenal and Wolves so The Hammers won't be intimidated by this fixture, but this is a confident Leicester City team and I think they will edge a high-scoring game.

Southampton v West Brom Pick: There were a lot of people tipping up Southampton as being capable of a strong season who would have been surprised by their opening two League defeats.

The win over Burnley last weekend was a big one for The Saints and they will be looking at matches like this one as being very important to their survival bid. Southampton were poor at home last season, but they did create chances and ended the season with 2 wins from 3 Premier League games.

Better finishing would have put Southampton in a strong position to perhaps beat Tottenham Hotspur, but they collapsed when the chances came and went in the 2-5 defeat. However there was enough positive vibes from the players to believe they can do better and I think they are going to enjoy playing West Brom if the latter keep defending as they have done.

Slaven Bilic was furious that Chelsea's equaliser was allowed to stand last week, but he should be pretty worried about the defending. Despite a 3-0 lead, it always felt West Brom were vulnerable to Chelsea and in the first three games The Baggies have given up some huge opportunities.

The fact is that they haven't gotten away with it either having conceded at least three times in each Premier League game played. They also conceded twice in the eventual Penalties defeat to Brentford in the League Cup and I do think Southampton are going to cause plenty of problems for them.

West Brom should play their part with their speedy counter attacks likely to find spaces, but I don't think Southampton will let them off the hook when they get forward. With Danny Ings the home team have goals in the squad and I think they win this one in another potentially high-scoring Premier League fixture.

Arsenal v Sheffield United Pick: There has been a trend of seeing some high scoring games in the Premier League since the resumption of play in September and I think that is partly down to the lack of fitness some clubs have.

A short turnaround between seasons was always going to be difficult to deal with and having four Rounds of the League Cup scheduled to be played within a month has not helped.

The short off-season also means momentum can seep into this campaign from the last even more so than normal. Chris Wilder has to be worried about that now Sheffield United have lost 6 League games in a row and the lack of goals is a real issue for The Blades.

It is not for the lack of chances either with Sheffield United guilty of missing some glaring opportunities in the last two games including a missed penalty. Those lack of goals is certainly one of the reasons they are the underdog in North London this weekend, although Arsenal are still making some defensive mistakes which are allowing teams to create chances.

Both West Ham United and Liverpool did that so Sheffield United should arrive at the Emirates Stadium believing they can get off the mark in the goals for and points column.

However it will be a challenge to keep Arsenal out considering the early levels being produced by Sheffield United. The Gunners should be well rested despite having been scheduled to play on Thursday and they have been creating chances even if not at the rate to suggest they deserve to have 6 points on the board.

Under Mikel Arteta Arsenal definitely seem to be playing with a bit more confidence in front of goal and they remain a clinical team which is unsurprising considering the attacking talents at their disposal.

Arsenal will want to get forward and they do have a team that will have success, but I am expecting Sheffield United to find a bit more fortune in front of goal if nothing else. They can't keep missing big chances and I think this will help this game produce at least three goals on the day.

Wolves v Fulham Pick: Now I know Fulham are not going to lose every Premier League game they play this season, but at the moment it is very difficult to see where they are going to get their points from.

Certainly not enough points to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

Scott Parker wants his team to play football, but the defensive mistakes being made are absolutely embarrassing and putting the manager under pressure. You can't concede three times in every League game played and expect to pick up results, but that is what Fulham have done after losing 0-3 at home to Aston Villa last week.

Defensive signings are likely to be made before the deadline, but those are not arriving just yet and Fulham look vulnerable.

To make matters more difficult, they are facing an angry Wolves team who were humiliated in their 4-0 defeat to West Ham United last Sunday. That is back to back losses for Wolves in the Premier League, but they have not lost 3 League games in a row since November 2018.

They have lost back to back League games four times since those three defeats in a row and Wolves have won 2 and drawn 2 the next time out. Being back at home should help and I do think Wolves have pace and power in the final third which will give them a real edge in this clash.

Wolves are simply going up against a team that offers up two or three really good chances every game they play and in Raul Jimenez they have someone who can gobble up those opportunities. Barring some huge turnaround in their defensive resiliency in the last couple of days, I think Wolves win this fixture.

Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There have been some petty words back and forth between Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Jose Mourinho in the lead up to this huge fixture in the Premier League.

Those are going to mean nothing when Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet on Sunday and this is a massive game for the two clubs. While Tottenham Hotspur look to have gotten the majority of their business done in the transfer market, Manchester United are under pressure to back their manager and that will only increase tenfold if they were to lose another game at Old Trafford.

It won't be lost on Jose Mourinho that he can put his successor in a heap of trouble by winning here and while he will speak about Spurs alone, I have no doubt it is something he is thinking about privately.

The schedule is not ideal having played Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday and now Sunday again. However Tottenham Hotspur have built up some momentum with their wins in the Cup competitions and the side have played some good attacking football, albeit against teams not quite of the level of Manchester United.

It has not been the best start for Manchester United and their own defensive shortcomings have to be a worry ahead of this Premier League fixture. Brighton should have beaten United, let alone draw, last weekend and Crystal Palace showed how effective the counter attack can be.

Both teams will feel they are better on the front foot in this one and I do think that will be the approach they take. Manchester United have to want to play attacking football at Old Trafford and Tottenham Hotspur will sense a vulnerability in the home team.

With their own defensive issues clear to see in the opening month of the season, I would be surprised if we don't see three or more goals scored for the third time in a row between these clubs at Old Trafford.

Aston Villa v Liverpool Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend comes from Villa Park where the improved hosts really get to test how far they've come along when they meet the Champions.

Aston Villa have definitely improved defensively since the three month break between March and June and Dean Smith's team have been able to produce a lot more positive results thanks to that. There is some quality going forward, although this is still a huge challenge for them against a club who have won 6 games in a row on this ground in the Premier League.

Last season Aston Villa came awfully close to cracking the code as they led Liverpool into the dying embers of the fixture, but two late goals turned things around for the visitors.

They deserve to win that day, but it was a much closer and more competitive meeting when they played at Anfield in early July. On that day Aston Villa were able to restrict the chances that Liverpool created, although it has to be said there is something of the inevitable about this Liverpool team.

Like many top teams before them, there is a real sense that Liverpool are going to get things right no matter the situation at the moment. Even when they are under pressure they seem to put the right football together to earn the victory, or they have a couple of big defensive moments to swing the momentum towards them.

That does make it very hard to oppose Liverpool as it was to oppose Manchester City two seasons ago.

With the quality Liverpool have going forward you have to favour them to win most games they play, but Aston Villa have shown resiliency and I think they can make this competitive. It is harder for the underdog without the fans in the Stadium, but Aston Villa have beaten Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Sheffield United in that time and pushed Chelsea all the way.

They were giving Manchester United as good as they got before a controversial penalty was awarded against Aston Villa and I do think Dean Smith will have his troops ready to compete.

I would be very surprised if Aston Villa were to capitulate and lose really heavily in this one, although opposing Liverpool is a hard task these days.

MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Everton & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Newcastle United-Burnley Both Teams to Score- NO

Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals

Southampton & Over 1.5 Goals
Arsenal-Sheffield United Over 2.5 Goals

Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals
Aston Villa + 1.75 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 4

After a pretty solid GameWeek 1, the last two weeks have been disappointing to say the least with both finishing under 50 points for the week.

That is not going to cut it although I think this could be a week in which it may be wise for me to stay steady and have two transfers to use following the international break.

I do think there are a couple of players I need to replace in my squad and I can use a transfer this week to move one of those out, although at this stage I want to make sure I am in a position to make the right choices once the real life transfer deadline is hit.

The kind of names that can't be long for my team are Luke Shaw, Ben Davies, Ayoze Perez, Tomas Soucek, Che Adams and Timo Werner.

Take away the two defenders and the other four have had their opportunities to put a big haul on the board, but missed chances and some poor luck has accounted for that and unsurprisingly some of the value has already been lost.

I still believe Adams and Werner can come good and I am willing to give Perez one more chance knowing the injuries in the Leicester City line up and with a very good looking home game come.

At this point you can't win any major prizes in your Leagues, but with the Wild Card to be used this side of the New Year it may be the best time to play it before GW5.

There have been some frustrating moments in the first three GWs of the season, but I am hoping some of the luck returns to my eleven selected before the two week break to have a real think about how I want to approach my team going forward.

Weekend Football Thoughts 2015 (October 3-4)

With another international week ahead of us, the last Premier League weekend proved to be one filled with drama and big stories as the first two managerial casualties of the top flight were confirmed, while the top and the bottom of the Premier League has begun to take shape.

Are the Bottom Three in Danger of Being Cut Off From the Rest?

That image is of Marko Arnautovic celebrating his winning goal for Stoke City at Villa Park on Saturday which moved his side clear of the bottom three after opening the weekend in 17th place in the League table.

With a win over Aston Villa and both Newcastle United and Sunderland also failing to earn the three points over the weekend, all of a sudden there is a four point gap between 17th and 18th place in the Premier League.

Yes, there are still 90 points to play for this season so there is no immediate danger of the bottom three clubs being cut off, but that gap has to be a concern to Tim Sherwood and Steve McClaren in the bottom three.

It has been a competitive Division over the first couple of months, but only Newcastle United and Sunderland have yet to win, while Aston Villa haven't won since the opening day of the season. The fans of these clubs have to be a little worried over the next two weeks before the Premier League returns because I am not sure how much improvement those clubs will make in that time.

You can't be anything but worried when you're not too convinced about a club's chances of beating any other in the League and these three clubs in the bottom three don't inspire much confidence.

It is going to be a big month of football for Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Sunderland following this international break until the next month in the middle of November. They Tyne-Wear derby on October 25th looks huge too and I would already begin to consider two out of these three as being big favourites for relegation come May.

Dick Advocaat Unsurprisingly Walks Away from Sunderland

The first managerial casualty of the Premier League unsurprisingly came at the Stadium of Light where it was considered fairly certain that Dick Advocaat was going to leave Sunderland no matter what happened in the game against West Ham United.

Seeing his team blow a 2-0 lead in a 2-2 draw didn't do much for the Dutchman and I don't blame him for walking.

Sunderland have never been transparent as to who is running the transfers at the club but I think the previous comments from Paolo Di Canio and Gus Poyet suggest the manager perhaps doesn't have as much control as is needed. Advocaat's decision to walk might have been influenced by the lack of quality that was brought into the club without his go-ahead and I am personally not a big fan of 'committees' running the transfer side of a club because these people take little to no responsibility when things go wrong.

Fans and the media will look at the manager and the buck will stop with him and a manager that retired in the summer only to make a U-turn is unsurprisingly not wanting to deal with the pressure of a relegation battle.

I think it is also telling that someone like Harry Redknapp made it clear openly that Sunderland is not a job he would be willing to touch because of the quality of players at the club. He even suggested Sam Allardyce is unlikely to take on the job and all the Houdini acts Sunderland have committed to escape the drop looks unlikely to be repeated this season.

Sunderland simply haven't had the most taxing of fixture lists to be stuck on three points from a possible twenty-four and it will take something special for them to drag themselves out of the bottom three. Someone has to take responsibility for the shocking signings that have left Sunderland as a mess at the back and not being able to score enough goals to cover those issues.

This looks like it is going to be a long season for Sunderland unless they can find someone who can inspire a poor crop of players for long enough to bring in reinforcements in the January transfer window. Even those reinforcements might not be enough barring another miracle for Sunderland who have looked the worst team in the Premier League by a considerable distance so far.

When Will Chelsea Hit Rock Bottom in this Season?

I'll admit that I have thought Chelsea are about to turn the corner a couple of times already this season, but they continue to make the defensive mistakes that have prevented a consistent run.

Hands up if you picked Chelsea to be in 16th place in the Premier League table going into the second international break of the 2015/16 season... Not many hands that I can see!

Jose Mourinho is under immense pressure as his 'rant' to Sky Sports at the end of another poor home defeat showed, while the players look to have inexplicably downed tools.

Have they given up on the manager, something Mourinho said would be the only reason he would resign as manager of Chelsea? Some of them certainly look like they are not pulling their weight as expected, while there is no consistency to the team line up which isn't helping things.

Some have suggested the players aren't pleased with the tactics that Mourinho insists on playing and ex-England and AC Milan manager Fabio Capello went as far as saying Mourinho has worn out his players. Capello said the same was said after Mourinho's time at Real Madrid and perhaps that is a big reason that 'third season syndrome' affects Mourinho's teams as much as it seems to in seasons he has remained as long as that at one club.

It is baffling to perfectly honest because it looks like some of the veteran players have aged overnight and maybe Mourinho did get the best out of them last season and they have nothing left. John Terry was terrible in the loss to Southampton, Nemanja Matic was withdrawn in the game and Chelsea lack options up front with Diego Costa out suspended.

Games are not going to get easier for Chelsea once they are out of the international break. The face big trips to Dynamo Kiev, West Ham United and Stoke City (in the League Cup and the Premier League), while Liverpool visit Stamford Bridge and things may get worse before they get better for Mourinho.

One question remains though... Will Chelsea keep their 'full support' behind the manager if they lose two or three more games between October 17th and November 7th?

And Then There Were Three

Thierry Henry said in the wake of Arsenal's 3-0 win over Manchester United that Arsene Wenger won't have a better chance to guide his team to the Premier League title than he looks like he will have this season.

Chelsea are unlikely to defend their title with their continuing struggles and 10 points looks a lot to make up on Manchester City who lead the way.

Despite the loss to Arsenal, Manchester United remain in the thick of the battle to become title contenders although the next month will tell us a lot more about Louis Van Gaal's men once they play at Everton, Manchester City at home and Crystal Palace away.

Manchester City will be there or thereabouts as long as Manuel Pellegrini keeps them focused better than he has at times and also manages to get a full season out of Sergio Aguero and those three teams lead the way when it comes to potential winners.

With Chelsea struggling at the moment, a top four berth for a surprise contender is certainly up for grabs, while Liverpool might feel a big change in the manager's office potentially gets them back in the mix as they are only 4 points behind Arsenal and Manchester United.

If I am being honest, I am still expecting Manchester City to push clear in the coming months, but the Premier League certainly has an open look about it as we get closer to the ten game mark which is supposed to give us the clearest picture of how things will develop.

Brendan Rodgers' Time is Up at Liverpool

The rumours about Brendan Rodgers' future as Liverpool manager began as far back as April when his side limply went out of the FA Cup Semi Final to Aston Villa, but this still feels a strange juncture at which the decision was made to remove the Northern Irishman from his position.

There are definitely some arrogance around Rodgers and an almost undeserving belief that he has been surpassing expectations at Liverpool, but I also think he is a better manager than those who love revising history would care to admit.

He almost took Liverpool to the title behind some breathtaking football and while some will point to Luis Suarez being the main source for that, I would hesitate in diminishing Rodgers' role in the 2014 season. He got the best out of Steven Gerrard and Daniel Sturridge that season to complement Suarez and it was only a bit of naivety that prevented Liverpool winning the League in the final three games when they were big favourites to do that.

That game with Chelsea when Liverpool pushed on for goals when a draw would have sufficed is perhaps the one moment Rodgers would love to go back in time and adjust his own tactics you'd think and it would have made him virtually untouchable at Anfield right now.

He made mistakes- the signing of Mario Balotelli was never going to work as a replacement for Suarez, but a long-term injury to Daniel Sturridge was bad luck.

Liverpool are not that far off the top four places so I think the timing was strange, but I guess someone, Jurgen Klopp, has given the nod he is ready to return to management and the owners believe he can get more out of the squad that has been put together. Klopp looks the perfect fit for Liverpool as someone who made some impressive signings on a small budget at Borussia Dortmund, but was also capable of replacing big players that were sold.


It is much harder to see where Rodgers goes from here- perhaps he takes the David Moyes approach and look to manage abroad because the only way is down from Liverpool in the Premier League. He is still young enough to come again, but not many managers get more than a single shot at the very big clubs in a single country and Rodgers might be best to rebuild before returning to England.

You can understand his disappointment- he was three games away from becoming a Liverpool legend yet eighteen months later is out of the door at Anfield and now being widely criticised for his tenure.

I think it is harsh that his performance is being downplayed in hindsight, but that is football these days when managers go from one extreme to another in a very short period of time. Rodgers can just make a quick call to his friend Jose Mourinho to understand that as he exits the limelight for the foreseeable future.

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (October 3-4)

The final rounds of the European Championship Qualifiers will be played after this weekend so that means the weekend football is condensed into a two day period to ensure all players picked for international duty can head off in time to join their national teams.

That doesn't mean it isn't an important weekend as the games on 'Super Sunday' show with the likes of the Merseyside derby and Arsenal vs Manchester United in England, while in Germany Bayern Munich host Borussia Dortmund and it is the Madrid derby in Spain.


It was more disappointment for the English clubs in European competition this week which returned a 2-2-2 record from the six games played. Of course the focus will be seeing how the Italian clubs did when it comes to the four places being given to the Premier League in the Champions League and their sides were 4-0-1.

Not good news for the Premier League, especially as Arsenal look in a difficult position to get of their Champions League Group, although the concern will only increase if another English club goes out of the Champions League Group Stage and one of Tottenham Hotspur or Liverpool fail to get through to the Last 32 in the Europa League.

It is a picture that will become a lot clearer in December, although I think three English teams in the Champions League will get through to the Last 16 and I wouldn't rule out Arsenal just yet despite being in a very awkward position.


Last weekend I put a few thoughts down about the stories that came out of the Weekend Football which can be read here.


A number of positive results during the week at least pulled the September final tally around into a positive, but there is still work to do to get back on track after another disappointing August. I have included the Europa League Picks from the Thursday football in the final tally for September despite being the 1st of October and the October tally will begin from this weekend.

It is a big month upcoming with the two rounds of European Championship Qualifiers as well as Match Day 3 in European competition and four rounds of Premier League and domestic European League football.


Crystal Palace v West Brom Pick: Tony Pulis makes his second return to Selhurst Park since leaving Crystal Palace and he has continued to hold the Indian Sign over his two previous Premier League clubs. Tony Pulis has moved to four wins out of four in games against Stoke City and Crystal Palace since leaving those clubs and will be looking to continue that run on Saturday as he takes West Brom to Selhurst Park in the live Saturday lunchtime game.

I really do think West Brom can get something out of this game despite blowing a 2-0 lead in a 2-3 defeat to Everton on Monday night. West Brom were so much the better team in that game when they moved 2-0 up, but conceding literally seconds later turned the game on its head.

Pulis might be more comfortable setting his team up away from home at the moment as that is where the majority of their points have come in the first two months of the season. West Brom can defend better than they did on Monday and the onus is on Crystal Palace to get forward and to push the tempo in this game.

I am not convinced that is where Crystal Palace are at their best and is a big reason their home form is not as effective as their away record under Alan Pardew. This is a Crystal Palace team that wants to hit teams on the counter-attack, but West Brom won't fall into that trap and instead will sit deep and look to do that to the home team with Saido Berahino back and scoring goals.

Crystal Palace just don't seem as comfortable at home despite the passionate support they receive here as they don't strike the right balance between attack and defence as they do on their travels. They don't get the same room to use the pace in the final third that they have when teams are not committing men forward as they almost have to do in front of their own fans.

The stats back up the feelings about Crystal Palace- they have won 9 of their last 12 away games in the Premier League, but just 4 of their last 12 at Selhurst Park. With Tony Pulis finding the right formula to take down his last two teams managed and West Brom only losing 1 of their last 7 away games in the Premier League, I wouldn't rule a line through backing The Baggies to win this game.

However, I think backing the away team to avoid defeat at odds against is a big price and certainly worth backing here.


Aston Villa v Stoke City Pick: I wouldn't go as far as describe this as a 'six pointer' as it would be described had the fixture been in April and both Aston Villa and Stoke City are still in the positions they are in, but I would think both Tim Sherwood and Mark Hughes have targeted a win from the game to ease some pressure.

It would be a big surprise if either club was thinking about making a managerial change at this stage of the season, but it can be a vicious circle for some clubs if they can't get out of the spiral of negative results.

Aston Villa haven't won a League game since the opening day of the new season and they have some concerns at both ends of the pitch. On the other hand, Stoke City might just see recent results as a sign they are getting out of their slump and the win over Bournemouth last week is a huge result for them. 

It was a nervous win, but the three points might just spark Stoke City who have plenty of talented players in the squad.

I do believe Stoke City have the more quality, but they have looked vulnerable at the back without Ryan Shawcross' experience and Aston Villa can exploit that. However, I am not convinced Aston Villa can keep a clean sheet having done so once in their last 12 Premier League home games and backing both teams to exploit the nervousness in the other's defence looks the call.


Manchester City v Newcastle United Pick: I think it was Jose Mourinho who recently said something along the lines of playing Newcastle United at St James' Park is always a difficult task, but hosting them is usually a lot more of a comfortable game for the big teams.

That came out after a defeat to Newcastle United last season, but Manchester City have had little problems against this club and generally thump them when they visit The Etihad Stadium.

Results haven't been the best for Manchester City over the last half of September, but some of that has been down to the injuries they have suffered and some of it down to bad luck. The defending has lost some shape with Vincent Kompany missing a few games, while the absence of David Silva would be a blow to many teams and Sergio Aguero is yet to click into top form.

I don't believe they are going to continue being on the wrong end of some smash and grab raids nor do I think Manchester City will continue producing the chances in front of goal without have the clinical finishing to put them away. This looks the perfect game for them to go into the international break and I think Manchester City win this comfortably.

Newcastle United have impressed in patches this season which are signs Steve McClaren can get things turned around, but this team has struggled away from home. They have yet to score and both Swansea City and West Ham United beat Newcastle United comfortably and could have won by a much larger margin than the 2-0 final scores.

If Manchester City get their noses in front early in this one, I fancy they win by three at least on Saturday.


Norwich City v Leicester City Pick: At the start of the season, both Norwich City and Leicester City were amongst the favourites for relegation from the Premier League, but results over the first seven games suggest they may be able to raise expectations. It is still early in the season and every point earned at the moment can be crucial in May as teams like this will be expected to go through lean times in terms of points being accrued.

The fixture has all the makings of one of the more entertaining ones in the Premier League this weekend.

Leicester City have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games through the season as they have the pace in the forward areas to hurt teams, but have never looked secure defensively. They have both scored and conceded in all 9 games played in all competitions this season and I can see this fixture continuing that sequence.

I think Leicester City have the players that can give Norwich City problems, but they are also facing a team that has scored in all 4 home games this season and scored at least three goals in back to back games at Carrow Road. Like Leicester City, Norwich City have yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season and they only failed to score in one game at Southampton when reduced to ten men after half an hour.

I can imagine plenty will include Norwich City versus Leicester City in the both teams to score accumulators but that looks very likely with the way both teams have attacked and defended this season. The layers continue to underestimate the chance of seeing at least three goals in a game involving Leicester City, although they are catching on a bit now, and that looks the way to go forward with both teams confident in attack and willing to go for the three points when they feel they are there for the taking.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: This has been a difficult match for Chelsea since Southampton have been promoted back to the Premier League and The Blues have won just 2 of their 6 Premier League games against them. That reads 1 win from 3 League games at Stamford Bridge so I can imagine there will be a few people queuing up to back the away side to perhaps deliver another body blow to Jose Mourinho and the English Champions.

It is unlikely that Chelsea have gone into any of their last 6 Premier League games against Southampton in a more vulnerable position than they go into this one. Another week has seen the side draw at Newcastle United and then lose in Porto in the Champions League and clean sheets just don't seem to be forthcoming which is causing a lot of nerves through the side.

Big names are not responding to setbacks in the way you would expect, Eden Hazard has yet to really fire and John Terry continues to watch from the bench. Diego Costa is missing from this game and Southampton have pace to burn in the final third that will give this Chelsea defence plenty to concern themselves with.

However, I think Chelsea might be a big price to earn the three points this weekend as Southampton have failed to win any of their last 10 away Premier League games. They have drawn the last 3 in a row, but overall Southampton have lost 6 of those 10 games mentioned, while goals have been a problem with only five scored and four failures in their last 5 games.

As poor as Chelsea have been for much of the season, they don't seem that far away from turning it around as the media thinks. They have won their last couple of games at Stamford Bridge and I think Southampton might have been found out away from home if their recent run is anything to go by.

It's not likely that Chelsea will be such a price at Stamford Bridge against a team unlikely to finish in the top six again this season and they are worth backing.


Everton v Liverpool Pick: The Merseyside derby is the final game before the international break and it is a game that Brendan Rodgers dare not lose else he might find Liverpool making a managerial change before the next Premier League game is played. There is little doubt that Rodgers is under immense pressure as the fans have seemingly turned against him and Liverpool have to stay in touch with the top four to at least keep the wolves from the door.

A defeat to Everton, who are already above Liverpool in the Premier League table, might be the final straw for the owners as the latter would be left in mid-table and there are two big name managers out there. Carlo Ancelotti and Jurgen Klopp have both been linked with the job at Anfield so Rodgers has to find a way to keep those stories out of the dressing room and focus his team.

Daniel Sturridge is a huge returning figure for Liverpool and his two goals last week proved to be the difference in the game against Aston Villa. They have lacked a clinical striker in his absence and he should be well-rested for this game at Everton.

The short trip across Stanley Park has been a difficult one for Liverpool in recent years as an improving Everton have proved tough to beat. They had a couple of high-scoring Merseyside derbies at Goodison Park before the goalless draw last season and Everton have conceded a fair few goals this season which should give Liverpool a chance.

However, Everton showed against Manchester City and Chelsea that they can create chances at home against the best teams so Liverpool won't intimidate them with the injuries in the visitor's squad. Everton have pace which is a problem for the Liverpool defenders and this is a team that showed the kind of character and belief they have when coming back from 2-0 down to beat West Brom on Monday Night Football.

I can see both keepers having plenty of work to do in this game and this is a game that could produce goals, even if recent years the Merseyside derby has been a fiery affair without the clinical finishing in front of goal. This time both teams look to have players in form to perhaps take those chances and seeing at least three goals scored wouldn't be a huge surprise to me.


Arsenal v Manchester United Pick: This is the biggest game of the weekend for the neutrals as two teams who finished in the top four last season and are hoping to push on this time around meet in North London. Arsenal and Manchester United might both believe they can get amongst the Premier League title challenge with Chelsea struggling and Manchester City off the pace and so both teams will know how important earning the three points will be.

There have been some positives from Arsenal in the new season, but their Champions League performances have been far below par, while they have also struggled at The Emirates Stadium. It is surprising considering the quality they have in the forward positions, but naive decisions from the manager and defensively at big moments have been difficult to overcome.

Now they face a Manchester United team that have been playing with confidence even if they have yet to truly convince they can challenge for the Premier League title. Manchester United have won games while not playing brilliantly, but that can be a sign of a Champion in waiting, while the 2-3 win at Southampton was arguably the best performance of the season after a torrid opening thirty minutes.

Louis Van Gaal has proven to be a big game manager for Manchester United too and it was this club that won the most points in the head to head between the top six last season. Manchester United won at Arsenal and Liverpool last season and they do have a very good record at The Emirates Stadium which can't be ignored.

I really do fancy Manchester United's chances of winning this game on current form and with the slightly better defensive performances compared with Arsenal. They look a big price too, but it might be better to focus on at least three goals to be scored as Arsenal are a side that certainly has goals through the squad.

My feeling that Manchester United win suggests backing goals as all five previous wins at Arsenal have come when at least three goals have been shared by the teams. That isn't an event that is mutually exclusive, but I think Arsenal will score at least once and I think Manchester United win so it feels the 'safer' way to play the game because I can certainly envision a situation where the game is poised at 1-1 and both teams having chances to win it.

It feels like the Swansea City versus Manchester United game when I had a feeling it was going to end 2-1 either way and while the gut feeling is Louis Van Gaal finds a way to get his side to the three points, Arsenal have every chance of coming out firing after Champions League disappointment. The chance for goals looks a big price considering both teams recent results in the League and Europe so backing that to happen looks the 'smarter' option.

MY PICKS: West Brom + 1 English Handicap @ 2.05 Stan James (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Stoke City Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Norwich City-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Everton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Arsenal-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)