When you look back at the results and being on the wrong side of four results by a combined nine points, frustration will set in.
That was the way things worked out in Week 5 and it could have been a much different story if not for a few breaks going the wrong way.
There is still a number of weeks to negotiate between now and the National Championship Game in January and so time to turn things back around, but it would be good to snap a poor run with a solid week.
West Virginia Mountaineers @ BYU Cougars Pick: They opened the 2025 Big 12 schedule play with a road win and the BYU Cougars (4-0) have to feel very confident about their chances of going a little better than last season. Missing out on the tie-breaker for the Championship Game will have stung, but this is a team that looks like it is playing with a real ambition in mind and they are continuing to roll even as injuries have been piling up.
It is the depth that looks like being a potential issue for the Cougars with the Running Back position causing most concern, but starter LJ Marin is available on this short week.
The Cougars are perhaps fortunate to be facing the West Virginia Mountaineers (2-3) who have lost both Big 12 Conference games without offering much resistance at all. Those defeats to the Kansas Jayhawks and Utah Utes have been by 31 points and 34 points respectively and the upset over the Pittsburgh Panthers feels like a long time ago for the team.
Much like the hosts, the West Virginia Mountaineers are a little banged up, although they are down more important players.
In Week 6, the Mountaineers are set to be without starting Quarter Back Nicco Marchial again having seen him miss the thumping loss to the Utah Utes. Backup Jaylen Hendersen did not impress at all and was benched before the second half began, and it will be a real test for him if he is called to start again or for Khalil Wilkins, despite the solid enough performance in the second half against the Utes.
This Cougars Defensive Line is stout up front and they will look to clamp down on the Mountaineers running game and force the Quarter Back to beat them, no matter whether that is Hendersen or Wilkins.
Playing from behind the chains will mean having to deal with a real pass rush pressure and trying to attack a Cougars Secondary that have continued to produce at a high level.
Turnovers are a potential problem for the Mountaineers and those extra possessions would give the home favourite a huge chance to cover what is a big line.
The difference between the teams Offensively is that the BYU Offensive Line is likely to establish the run and give LJ Martin plenty of room to keep his personal numbers ticking over nicely. An extra wrinkle was seen last week with Quarter Back Bear Bachmeier picking up almost 100 yards on the ground and it should mean the Cougars are playing in front of the chains for much of the evening.
It only makes life easier for Bachmeier if he steps back to throw the ball down the field against a Mountaineers Secondary that have allowed Quarter Backs to have success against them. There should be time given to the Bear Bachmeier if the BYU Cougars are running the ball as expected, and it should mean BYU are able to keep the ball moving effectively and efficiently for much of the contest.
Covering this big number is not going to be easy for a Cougars team that have not been that accustomed to being set as a home favourite, but they have been playing with real confidence.
At the same time, West Virginia have struggled massively since stepping up into Big 12 play and the backup Quarter Backs could have real issues making play against a good looking Cougars Defensive unit. A turnover or two may be needed to get over this line, but the Cougars can give the Offensive a couple of short fields with three and outs and that should help the BYU at least get up to a 20 point win.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: In previous years, one defeat in the regular season would have been enough to cost a team the opportunity to finish as National Champions, but that is not the case in 2025.
With that in mind, it is important for the Georgia Bulldogs (3-1) to get back on track after losing to the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 5. The schedule will still pit them against the likes of Ole Miss and Texas to show the Playoff Committee what they are all about, while the SEC is a tough Conference and it would be a really big surprise if two unbeaten teams were to compete in the Championship Game in a couple of months time.
The Bulldogs have had some difficult tests against the Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) in recent years, despite continuing to find a way to earn the win- last season the Wildcats came incredibly close to a home upset, but were beaten 13-12, while they have given the Mississippi Rebels something to think about earlier this season.
A second SEC defeat was more worrying for Kentucky having been crushed by the South Carolina Gamecocks, and the team may be arriving in a tough scheduling spot as well as being banged up at the wrong time.
Kentucky are set to have veteran Quarter Back Zach Calzada back behind Center having missed out with an injury following the defeat to the Mississippi Rebels. Without him, the Wildcats were much more experienced at this important position and they should be much the stronger with Calzada, although there are going to be questions about his overall health.
The match up against this Georgia Defensive unit looks a tough one- the Wildcats want to get behind the Offensive Line and establish the run, while the passing game has been a touch erratic. However, stopping the run has been something that the Georgia Defensive Line pride themselves in doing, and it is actually the Secondary which has been exposed by Tennessee and Alabama.
This time the Bulldogs may feel that their superior talent can come out on top, especially if Zach Calzada's shoulder is still not at 100%. The Bulldogs may also get a little more out of the pass rush against an Offensive Line that has not been as good in pass protection as they have been in run blocking and that should mean Georgia control this game.
There will be some envious eyes in Athens who have one eye on Carson Beck and his performances at Quarter Back for the Miami Hurricanes and so there is some pressure on Gunnar Stockton after a relatively poor performance against Alabama.
It is unlikely to be all on Stockton's arm though with the Bulldogs Offensive Line expected to help establish the run and that should allow the Quarter Back to find a bit more time in the pocket. He is also going to be throwing against a Kentucky Secondary that has struggled to make stops at times and the balance Offensively gives the Bulldogs the platform from which to bounce back from the loss last weekend.
This is a big line, but Head Coach Kirby Smart has led the Bulldogs to a 10-6 record against the spread after a loss.
Last year was a close, competitive battle between these SEC teams, but two years ago Georgia crushed Kentucky by 38 points here and an angry home team may be able to create a couple of turnovers to pull clear in this one.
Clemson Tigers @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The move from the NFL to Head Coach in College for the first time was always going to be a challenge, but the North Carolina Tar Heels (2-2) may have surprised Bill Belichick. The transfer portal can perhaps help turn things around quicker these days than in the past, but the Tar Heels finished 6-7 in 2024 and there will have been a lot of changes for the players to have to take in.
The disappointment is that the Tar Heels have been so uncompetitive when facing the Power 4 teams on the schedule, and they have been outscored 23-82 in those two games.
It makes the wins over outmatched opponents feel a little more than bullying, but the Tar Heels have an opportunity to change the narrative when hosting the Clemson Tigers (1-3).
There have been one or two murmurings of discontent about the job Head Coach Dabo Swinney is doing with the Tigers in recent years, but they were back in the Playoffs in 2024 and won at least ten games again. That helped quiet some of those voices, but it will have been very loud around Swinney over the last couple of weeks after Clemson were blown out by Syracuse and already 0-2 within the Conference.
It is a long path back towards relevancy, and Clemson are clinging on by their fingernails as far as a return to the Playoff is concerned. Winning out is all they can control and the hope is that the two week break will have given the team a chance to reset and get back on the horse.
Cade Klubnik has been one of the leading disappointments early in the 2025 season, but the Quarter Back will feel he is up against a team that will allow him to at least showcase some of his talent.
The help will come from the Offensive Line as they look to establish the run and at least put their Quarter Back in a position where he can throw from in front of the chains. Clemson still have talent and running the ball would also mean Cade Klubnik has time to attack this Secondary, although the lack of a North Carolina pass rush early in the season is a real concern for the Tar Heels.
Like the Tigers, North Carolina are playing after a Bye Week following a crushing defeat to the UCF Knights, while they were battered at home by the TCU Horned Frogs to open the season.
Quarter Back play has been inconsistent and North Carolina may have to start with a backup in Max Johnson if Gio Lopez is still struggling.
Regardless of who plays, the pressure will likely be on their shoulder with the North Carolina Offensive Line yet to find a groove up front to get the run game firing. They are not expected to have a lot of joy against this Clemson Defensive Line, while the Quarter Back, whether that is Lopez or Johnson, have been inconsistent.
This makes it tough to believe the Tar Heels can become the latest to try and exploit the gaps in the Clemson Secondary, while turnovers in the passing game have been costly too.
North Carolina may have some successes having seen the Clemson Defensive unit struggling, but those turnovers could ultimately lean this game in favour of the road team and they can come out on top.
Bill Belichick has a strong record when his team have been set as double digit underdogs, but that is in the NFL and he is facing a Coach who has led his team to an 8-3 record against the spread in the last eleven following a loss. Dabo Swinney has yet to find that Midas touch in 2025, but he has had two weeks to prepare and the Clemson Tigers can produce a win that reminds the rest of the ACC that they are not quite done yet.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: Back to back blowout losses will have sent the Wisconsin Badgers (2-2) into the Bye Week with a lot of soul-searching to do.
A loss by 21 points to the Alabama Crimson Tide can be put to the back of the mind, but the Badgers opened Big Ten play with a 17 point home loss to the Maryland Terrapins.
The Head Coach, Luke Fickell, has to be feeling some of the heat having put together a 14-15 record so far in his time in Madison, while the next month will see his Wisconsin team take on Ohio State, Oregon and, first, the Michigan Wolverines (3-1).
Two weeks ago, the Wolverines won an important game in Nebraska to move to 1-0 in Big Ten play and they are set as a considerable favourite to win this one in the home Conference opener. You cannot really argue with that considering what has been seen from the visiting team, and especially not with a Michigan Defensive unit that has looked in good shape for much of the season.
Stopping the run is where the Badgers strength lies, but they are about to be given another significant test when up against this Michigan Offensive Line that wants to bully teams up front. They have opened up some big lanes early in this season and Michigan could have more room if the Badgers are trying to find the answers to protect a Secondary that has given up huge yardage.
Bryce Underwood has perhaps not played at a level where he would be expected to exploit those gaps, but he should be given time and there will perhaps be more opportunities for him. He has at least avoided making big mistakes and the field battle is just as important when it comes to the Michigan Wolverines being in a position to win and perhaps cover this line set.
Through the first four games, Wisconsin have struggled to run the ball and now they are going up against a ferocious Wolverines Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run really well. Keeping the Badgers behind the chains will be seen as a big win and especially with the erratic Quarter Back play that Wisconsin have been getting all season, regardless of who has begun behind Center.
Wisconsin's Offensive Line have not only struggled in run blocking, but have not been able to keep the Quarter Back upright and this Wolverines pass rush could create havoc in the backfield. Forcing the ball to leave the hands quicker than hoped and from third and long spots can lead to big mistakes with the pass rush closing around the Quarter Back and Michigan's Secondary have been able to force turnovers.
That could be key to moving into a position to cover even against this big number and Michigan fans will also not have forgotten the humiliating 38 point home loss to the Badgers in November 2020.
This time it is the Wolverines who can put up some big points and they can take advantage of a Wisconsin team that are 1-6 against the spread when playing a team with rest having also lost their last game.
Texas Longhorns @ Florida Gators Pick: SEC Conference play has begun for all but one school in 2025, but that changes in Week 6 when the Texas Longhorns (3-1) return from a Bye Week to head to Gainesville. The one loss on the resume to the Ohio State Buckeyes is unlikely to be one that forces the Committee to overlook the Longhorns at the end of the season, but Texas fans do know that the team have to improve out of the Bye Week to come through the gauntlet of the SEC schedule.
Revenge will be on the mind of the Florida Gators (1-3) having been blown out by the Longhorns in 2024, but the bigger ambition has to be snapping the three game losing run.
The road losses to the LSU Tigers and Miami Hurricanes have underlined the Offensive issues that the Florida Gators have had all season, while the defeat to the South Florida Bulls is likely going to mean changes at the end of the 2025 campaign.
Simply put, it is difficult to work out how the Gators can have much more success in this one against the Texas Defensive unit that have been pretty well balanced.
As the competition has ramped up, the Gators Offensive Line have simply not been able to find a way to open up the running lanes and they are not expected to get much change out of this Longhorns Defensive Line. A two week preparation may see them look for other ways to get the ground game going, but this is a Longhorns team that will pride themselves on making teams try and beat them from behind the chains and they can certainly do that here.
All of the pressure may be on DJ Lagway, who has not really gotten on track at the Quarter Back position early in 2025.
He is likely to be faced with significant pass rush pressure, while also trying to throw with consistency against this Texas Secondary, and it could be another long day for a Quarter Back who has 61 passing yards in the big loss to the Miami Hurricanes. DJ Lagway did have almost 300 passing yards against the LSU Tigers, but that was a day in which he threw 5 Interceptions and the Gators may be stuck in the mud in The Swamp when trying to put consistent Offensive plays on the board.
If it wasn't for the Florida Gators Defensive unit, games might have seriously got out of hand for the struggling team.
However, it can become a big ask for a team to spend a lot of time on the field and maintain high levels and in the three game losing run, there has been some opportunity for teams to run the ball against the Gators Defensive Line. This is something the Longhorns will look to do and make sure their own Quarter Back is in the best position to succeed.
Arch Manning has not really played to the level that some may have expected, but he is still learning and there are signs he is improving.
He should be faced with limited pass rush pressure and that should give Arch Manning the time to make plays from third and manageable spots on the field and that should keep the Longhorns in decent shape to win on the road.
There are reasons that the Gators should be respected- they have been very good at home when playing with rest (5-0 against the spread), and the Gators are also 6-3 against the spread as the home underdog with Head Coach Billy Napier at the helm.
Florida have revenge on the mind after being humiliated by the Longhorns eleven months ago, and the Texas Longhorns have a poor record when favoured by less than 17 points in the SEC.
These have to give pause for thought, but there is a talent differential on the Offensive side of the ball and Texas may create a turnover or two that allows them to win this one by around 10 points on the road.
Michigan State Spartans @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: Two Big Ten teams with the same record are hoping to bounce back from Conference losses.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-1) will be hosting the Michigan State Spartans (3-1) and both have fallen to 0-1 in the loaded Big Ten, which means the losing team can already accept that they are not going to be invited into the Playoff.
Both have a decent win on the board against a Power 4 opponent, while the Cornhuskers at least offered some resistance to the Michigan Wolverines in Week 4.
The same cannot really be said for the Michigan State Spartans who were blown out by the USC Trojans on the same weekend and so it does feel there are more questions for the road team to answer.
Michigan State have to lean on the run against this Cornhuskers Defensive Line and try and keep themselves in third and manageable spots on the field. Doing that will control the tempo of the game, but also take away some of the pressure that is perhaps being felt by Quarter Back Aidan Chiles.
In the main, the Quarter Back has handled that really well, although this is another tough challenge against a Nebraska Secondary that have handled the pass exceptionally.
Out of the two teams, Nebraska should have the greater balance when they have the ball and that could make the difference in this important game for two schools still searching for a way to get back amongst the elite of the Conference and the nation.
The Offensive Line should be able to open up enough holes to ensure the Cornhuskers are in third and manageable spots, while Quarter Back Dylan Raiola is producing at a high level.
He will be encouraged by the spaces that the Spartans Secondary have shown all season and it should mean the home team are able to move the chains with some efficiency. Dylan Raiola has 11 Touchdown passes with just a single Interception so far this season and he should be able to put the Cornhuskers in a position to win the game.
Covering will not be easy if the Spartans establish the run, but Michigan State were well beaten when travelling to USC and this Nebraska team could score every time they have the ball.
One or two stalled drives could put Michigan State under pressure and throwing against this Nebraska Secondary has proven to be tough enough to imagine the home team will do enough to win and cover.
MY PICKS: BYU Cougars - 19.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 20.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 13.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 11.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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