The calendar turning into November means the College Football regular season has turned into the final run and there are a number of teams who will feel that only a place in the Playoff can be seen as a strong season.
Others will have bigger ambitions than merely competing in the post-season and the next month is about being involved in Conference Championship Games and putting an exclamation point on the seasons that these young players have put together.
Some of the top contenders are out of action this week as they go into the final Bye before the end of the season, while there are plenty of opportunities for the higher Ranked teams to remind those in the Playoff Committee about their strengths, while a loaded SEC schedule could see spoilers emerge.
It has been a frustrating season with a huge number of backdoor covers going against the selections- for the second week in a row, Michigan State scored with seconds remaining in a game and that allowed them to cover, even though they were well beaten (I will take no satisfaction out of reports that Jonathan Smith will be fired as Head Coach, but playing to cover is never going to cut it with board members).
A consistent run through the next month could yet put the season in a good position before the Playoffs and Bowl Games begin, but it can only start with a solid week and that is the aim from the six selections made.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The Big Ten has proven to be a very powerful Conference and in pre-season this would have been a game that could be circled as one of the pivotal ones when it comes to separating the elite and the very, very good. Both the Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0) and Penn State Nittany Lions (3-4) were expected to return to the College Football Playoff, but it has been a year that has gone very differently for the two schools.
The defending National Champions Ohio State have looked like a team that could go back to back and they are 4-0 in Big Ten play, which leaves them as one of two unbeaten teams in the Conference. This was one of the games that looked potentially hazardous at the start of the season, but the Buckeyes have been set as a monster favourite as the Penn State season has fallen apart.
Head Coach James Franklin has been fired and the Nittany Lions have lost all four Conference games played to slip under 0.500 for the season. This is a team that have won at least ten games in each of the last three years, while further issues have come out of the fact that Drew Allar has been injured and lost for the season.
A Bye Week can help, although there is no doubt that this is a huge challenge for a Nittany Lions team that have been hit hard over the last month.
Motivation to face the Ohio State Buckeyes will have seen plenty of enthusiasm in the build up to the Week 10 game, but Penn State will need inexperienced Quarter Back Ethan Grunkemeyer to step up very quickly.
There are big expectations being carried by Grunkemeyer, but those would have been for the years ahead and not in 2025- his first start against the Iowa Hawkeyes will have been an eye-opening experience for the young Quarter Back who had 93 passing yards and 2 Interceptions on the day.
Now he has to face an Ohio State Defensive unit that has looked about as good as any out there in the College Football circuit.
Problems begin up front where the Penn State Nittany Lions Offensive Line are going to be challenged in their bid to establish the run. With an inexperienced Quarter Back, everyone will know that Penn State will want to put Ethan Grunkemeyer in the best position possible by keeping him in front of the chains, but this Buckeyes Defensive Line have been stout all season. They will perhaps not fear the passing game in any real way and that should see Ohio State clamp down on the ground attack and see how much this Quarter Back has learned over the last couple of weeks.
Despite teams trailing in games against the Buckeyes, opponents have not had a lot of success throwing into this Ohio State Secondary. The Nittany Lions Offensive Line has been pretty good in pass protection, but holding things together for long enough in obvious passing situations will be challenging and it could be a tough day in the office for the road team.
The key to the spread is going to be how well the Nittany Lions can lock down on the other side of the ball.
In recent games, the Defensive Line have just had a few issues in slowing down the run as the competition has stepped up, but they are facing an Ohio State team whose one disappointment this season has been in establishing the run. Head Coach Ryan Day has spoken openly about the issues that have been preventing the Buckeyes Offensive Line from finding the push up front and they have been on a Bye Week with that sole intention of figuring things out.
This is where the spread will be won or lost- if the Buckeyes can even get a little bit going on the ground and improve on recent numbers, Quarter Back Julian Sayin should be in a very comfortable spot. Struggles on the ground have not affected his performances so far this season, but this Penn State Secondary have been playing well and they will believe they can stall some drives.
Ohio State should win, but it has been a long time since they would have been favoured by such a margin to beat Penn State.
This will not be lost on the Nittany Lions who will want to come out of the Bye Week and show what they are made of, but it is a tough situation for them with a Freshman Quarter Back against a very talented Buckeyes Defensive unit. In recent years, the Nittany Lions have been given 17.5 and 18.5 points against Ohio State in 2016 and 2021 respectively and covered both times so they have to be respected.
If the Buckeyes Offensive Line is not able to get the run going up front, this could be a tough game for Ohio State to cover.
However, the feeling is that Ethan Grunkemeyer may be lured into a mistake or two, which gives the Buckeyes the short fields needed to make a big statement to the rest of the College Football nation. The rivalry should keep Penn State involved mentally, but this is a tough test for a team that have taken a lot of blows over the last month and the Buckeyes can make that show on the scoreboard when all is said and done.
UCF Knights @ Baylor Bears Pick: Only one team made it out of the Big 12 to join the College Football Playoff last season, but the top of the Conference looks much stronger this time around.
Unfortunately for the Baylor Bears (4-4) and UCF Knights (4-3), neither is expected to be challenging in those places and games like this one are much more about finding a win to move that much closer to becoming Bowl eligible.
The Knights snapped a two game losing run and are now 1-3 in Big 12 play, while the Baylor Bears head into this game having lost two in a row to drop to 2-3 in the Conference and fall out of contention. Both teams have recently been beaten by the Cincinnati Bearcats, who are one of two teams standing with a 5-0 record in the Big 12 through nine weeks of the season, but the Knights and Bears went about those defeats in very different ways.
UCF are coming out of a Bye Week and they have already matched the four wins secured in 2024, but this feels like a game they might have to win if they are going to reach six and earn a Bowl spot at the end of the regular season. Over the next month the Knights face three Big 12 teams with a combined 22-2 record, and so beating the Baylor Bears feels essential.
Out of the two teams, it does feel like Baylor have been underperforming this season considering the experience they were bringing back from the team that went 8-5 in 2024. Unfortunately for them, the Defensive unit has taken a step backwards and that will make it tough to cover in any game.
Having Tayven Jackson back at Quarter Back and now giving him a two week period to really rehab is a huge boost for the Knights- Jackson played really well in the win over the West Virginia Mountaineers having missed one game.
It might not all be on the sore shoulder of the Quarter Back though and that is because the UCF Offensive Line is likely going to be able to establish the run very effectively. They are facing a Baylor Defensive Line that have allowed teams to rip off some big gains on the ground and it would be a surprise if Tayven Jackson is not being placed in very manageable spots on the field thanks to the UCF ground attack.
Being unable to stop the run has also meant being unable to rush the passer and so Baylor are not expected to be giving Tayven Jackson too many concerns when he does drop back to throw. It has also meant the Secondary have been exposed and so the road team have to be feeling pretty confident that they can sustain drives for as long as needed.
No one will deny it has been messy on the Defensive side of the ball, but Baylor have won four games and a lot of credit has to be given to Sawyer Robertson at Quarter Back. He impressed in Spring Training and Robertson has picked up from where he left off in the 2024 season, but also should be credited for the slight improvement in the numbers and he is going to be key in keeping Baylor competitive the rest of the way.
It has largely come down to Sawyer Robertson because of an inconsistent rushing return and the Bears Offensive Line are not expected to get a lot of change out of this UCF Defensive Line. In 2024 the Knights played the run well and this unit has been just as good, which is going to mean they can force the Baylor Quarter Back to try and beat them out of third and long spots.
Sawyer Robertson could find himself under some duress when he drops back to throw, while the Knights Secondary have long been a tough unit to throw against. The quality of the Quarter Back suggests he will have some success, but Robertson is going to have to be careful with the ball and that can be difficult when the pocket is collapsing around you.
Baylor are favoured, but Head Coach Dave Aranda has led his team to a 12-17 record against the spread when being asked to lay points.
Defensively the Bears are finding it tough to stop anyone, which makes winning a chore, never mind covering a mark, and the UCF Knights have a team capable of keeping this very competitive. There is every chance the Knights win this as the underdog outright, so taking more than a Field Goal worth of points looks a pretty easy decision.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Maryland Terrapins Pick: The last fifteen months have seen a stunning turnaround for the Indiana Hoosiers (8-0) and it will take a significant collapse for the team to miss the College Football Playoff. Making it into the Playoff in back to back seasons under Head Coach Curt Cignetti will be a remarkable achievement for a school that had won just nine games between 2021 and 2023 before finishing with an 11-2 record in 2024.
They are set to play in the Big Ten Conference Championship Game, although the Hoosiers have to still win four more regular season games to do that. However, Indiana are going to be a big favourite to win all of those games against Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue and beginning in College Park this week.
The Maryland Terrapins (4-3) have matched the win total from 2024, but they are 1-3 in the Big Ten and still need two wins to return to Bowl eligibility. They are coming out of a Bye Week and so should be fully prepared for a huge test and Head Coach Mike Locksley will be hoping to improve the 4-8 record against the spread that Maryland have put together when playing with rest.
They have lost three straight games going into that Bye Week and the Terrapins will be well aware that they are facing one of the best teams in College Football and not just in the Big Ten.
Running the ball against the Hoosiers Defensive Line has proven to be extremely difficult and that has set Offensive units behind the chains right from the get-go. Maryland's Offensive Line are not expected to have a lot more joy pounding the rock than previous Indiana opponents, although they can look to exploit Malik Washington's legs from the Quarter Back position to try and keep the Hoosiers guessing.
It is not expected to be a sustainable approach though and instead Washington's arm has to be operating at a high level.
He does have 11 Touchdown passes and 3 Interceptions this season, but Malik Washington is completing less than 60% of his attempts and that becomes all the tougher when set with third and long spots. The Terrapins Offensive Line has offered up solid enough protection, but keeping the Hoosiers pass rush out of the backfield when in obvious spots to throw the ball will be challenging and makes completing passes a hazardous task.
Running the ball is not expected to be so challenging for the Indiana Hoosiers- credit has to be given to Maryland for the overall Defensive Line numbers, but during this three game losing run in the Big Ten, the Terrapins have allowed teams to pick up 5 yards per carry as the competition level has been increased significantly.
The three Conference opponents faced in that time cannot really be compared with the Indiana Hoosiers and the road team are expected to pick up chunks of yards on the ground to make things very comfortable for Quarter Back Fernando Mendoza.
After having a solid season as Quarter Back of the California Golden Bears, Fernando Mendoza would have taken over the role with the Indiana Hoosiers with some big expectations to fulfil. Arguably he has surpassed those already with almost 2000 passing yards and and 24 Touchdown passes to go alongside just 3 Interceptions.
With the Hoosiers Offensive Line expected to push the team into third and manageable spots for much of the day, Mendoza should have ample time to dissect this Maryland Secondary and continue to pile up his passing numbers. The protection being given to the Quarter Back makes life all the more comfortable and Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana Offensive unit are unlikely to be slowed in this one.
Weather conditions should be perfect for the Big Ten leaders and Indiana can secure their first victory in this Stadium since 2019.
Covering will be a challenge, especially as Maryland are 4-0 against the spread when set as the underdog in 2025, but it feels like a game in which Indiana are going to be moving the chains with a lot more consistency than the home team. A mistake or two could just allow the Hoosiers to pull away, even if they have Penn State on deck as a potential distraction.
Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be held in Jacksonville again in 2025 and both the Georgia Bulldogs (6-1) and Florida Gators (3-4) will be coming out of a Bye Week ready to compete in this rivalry game.
Out of the two teams, it is the Georgia Bulldogs trying to stay on track with their 4-1 record in the SEC meaning they are just outside of the current projected Championship Game. Winning out may not be enough to earn a spot in that Conference Championship setting at the end of the regular season, but the Bulldogs would almost certainly be invited into the College Football Playoff, especially if Georgia Tech keep winning before the final week of the regular season.
The Florida Gators are 2-2 in the SEC and they are not going to chasing anything more than a Bowl spot, although being able to dent a rival is clearly going to offer some motivation.
Despite edging past Mississippi State in Week 8, Florida made a move they had been considering for some time and Head Coach Billy Napier has been fired. This does make things harder to factor with the players now able to think about joining the transfer portal, while the uncertainty about the direction the school will take having been treading water is also hard to determine.
Even reaching the eight win total of 2024 is going to be tough for the Gators from this current position, but they will have tried to focus on things that can be controlled and that is putting the best foot forward in this big SEC game.
As good as the Georgia Bulldogs have been in recent years, the Florida Gators have to believe that there is an opportunity to earn the upset. We have not really seen the Bulldogs put together a complete game and DJ Lagway has tethered his future to Florida and will be looking to put on a big performance from the Quarter Back position.
Running the ball effectively will help, although that has been something that the Georgia Defensive unit have been been able to clamp down upon to give their team a chance. The battle at the Line of Scrimmage is one that will determine which way this game will go, although DJ Lagway will have seen some holes in the Georgia Secondary that he can exploit.
There are going to be similar questions asked at the Line of Scrimmage when the Bulldogs have the ball- they may have found a way to win recent games, but the Georgia Offensive Line have struggled to open consistent running lanes and trying to force that against this Gators Defensive Line looks a tough task for them.
Much like Florida, the lean will be on the Quarter Back and Gunner Stockton is highly motivated to have a big performance from a personal level.
Gunner Stockton's grandfather passed away right here after the Georgia-Florida game in 2010 and he has made it clear that he is playing with that memory in mind.
The likelihood is that the Quarter Back can have a very big game against a Florida Secondary that has struggled to stop the pass in the SEC games played. The Gators do have a very good pass rush, which can be a problem when a team is in third and long spots, but Georgia's Offensive Line have offered Stockton time when he has stepped back to throw and the Quarter Back deserves plenty of credit for the way he has managed to look after the ball when throwing down the field.
It is the Quarter Back edge that gives Georgia the advantage in this one and the Bulldogs have won the last four games in this series and all by at least 14 points.
Florida will be motivated and can cause some problems, but Gunner Stockton is going to want to put on a show and he can help the Bulldogs pull clear in the second half.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: There are some big SEC Head Coaching roles already available and one of those is with the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-6) who need to find some SEC upsets if they are going to become Bowl eligible. It is looking increasingly unlikely and the Razorbacks job is not nearly as attractive as posts with the Florida Gators and LSU Tigers, but Interim Head Coach Bobby Petrino is just hoping to guide this group of players to snap a six game losing run.
The Razorbacks are 0-4 in the SEC, but they did win three Conference games last year and the slump is not nearly as long as the one that Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4) are suffering through.
Mississippi State may only be two wins away from being Bowl eligible, but they have lost all four SEC games and that makes it sixteen Conference defeats in succession.
The Bulldogs are going to be underdogs in all four remaining games this season so they are going to need to find some upsets if they are going to avoid a third season in a row finishing with a losing record. The main focus is simply getting one win on the board in the SEC and showing improvement from 2024, but closes losses to Florida and Texas over the last couple of weeks will have hit hard.
The last team that Mississippi State beat in the SEC was Arkansas in 2023 and that was in this Stadium.
It is going to be a chance for the Offensive Line to get things going having struggled to establish the run in recent games against strong SEC Defensive Lines. However, this week they are facing an Arkansas Defensive Line that has simply not played the run very well at all this season and putting Quarter Back Blake Shapen in third and manageable spots will be a real help.
You cannot be sure that the Bulldogs will take advantage of the Line of Scrimmage issues being faced by the home Defensive unit, but there is a chance. Blake Shapen has also played pretty well without a lot of run support and he has almost 2000 passing yards with 11 Touchdown passes this season, while the Arkansas Defense may be concentrating on trying to stop the run, leaving the Secondary open to be attacked.
One real problem has been the turnstile nature of the Bulldogs Offensive Line when they have tried to give the Quarter Back time to throw the ball. If they are in third and long spots, even this Razorbacks team may be able to flood the backfield and try and force Blake Shapen to throw out of tough situations on the field, which can lead to errors being made and drives to stall.
There are questions about how effective the Mississippi State rush is going to be against a vulnerable Defensive Line, but the Arkansas Offensive Line are going to be very confident they can open things up to pound the rock. This is a team that have flourished on the ground, even when coming up to the SEC level of play, and the Bulldogs Defensive Line have not been much help at containing teams up front.
Quarter Back Taylen Green is very effective at tucking the ball and making plays with his legs, and there is no doubting the character of a player who is pushing through the pain to lead his team.
It should all mean the Razorbacks are able to play from in front of the chains and that in turn opens up big passing lanes with the Bulldogs having to pay more attention to stopping the ground game from gashing them.
This Bulldogs Secondary have been given up plenty of big plays and that is something that Green can exploit, although he has to be careful with the ball after throwing 3 Interceptions in a nine point loss in Week 9. Despite the numbers given up through the air, the Bulldogs have been able to step in front of routes and turn the ball over and that will give them an opportunity to keep this one close.
Head Coach Jeff Lebby may not have helped his team earn a win in the Conference, but the Bulldogs have been a team that have shown plenty of competitive spirit. This makes it hard to oppose them, but Arkansas do look to have a team with a more balance Offensive output and that can see the Razorbacks avoid becoming the first SEC team to lose to the Bulldogs since the 2023 Arkansas team did that right here in this Stadium.
South Carolina Gamecocks @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: There are just three Conference games left for the Mississippi Rebels (7-1) and winning out would likely be good enough to see them invited into the College Football Playoff. Rumours around the future of Head Coach Lane Kiffin could have been a major distraction for the Rebels, especially after the loss to the Georgia Bulldogs, but the team bounced back with a road win over the Oklahoma Sooners to move to 4-1 in the Conference.
Hope has not been lost when it comes to winning a first SEC Championship in over sixty years, but other results will need to go their way.
With that in mind, the Rebels have to focus on just winning the games in front of them and that begins with this home game against the South Carolina Gamecocks (3-5) who have not met big pre-season expectations.
The Gamecocks put everything into the Week 9 game against the Alabama Crimson Tide, but came up short and they are now 1-5 in the SEC. Head Coach Shane Beamer is another who has been linked with vacant roles, notably with the Virginia Tech Hokies, but there is not going to be pressure on him to depart within South Carolina, even if the team are not going to reach the nine win mark of 2024.
An inconsistent Offensive performance has been a letdown considering the experience that the Gamecocks were bringing into the new season.
It all begins up front where the Offensive Line have not been able to put together a consistent rushing attack and that has meant the pressure has been on Quarter Back LaNorris Sellers to find a way to keep the chains moving. There is a chance that this week South Carolina have a bit more success on the ground, and they will need that if only to allow Sellers to have more time to throw the ball.
The Offensive Line have not been able to open the running lanes and have also struggled in pass protection and LaNorris Sellers is going to be faced with real pressure from the Rebels pass rush. He will have noted that recent Mississippi opponents have found spots in the Secondary that can be attacked with success, but Sellers will need time and the passing game has been far from consistent.
It is a pressure that will be increased if the Rebels can continue what has been a productive Offensive performance, one that has shown up even as they have moved into the heart of the SEC schedule.
Recent games have seen the Rebels fail to establish the run quite as effectively as they have for much of the season, but this will feel like a step down in level compared with other SEC teams they have been facing. The Gamecocks haven't been as porous as some teams on the ground, but they do allow teams to establish the ground game and that could be the case in Week 10, which will suit Trinidad Chambliss all the way.
He did not come into the season as the Mississippi starting Quarter Back, but Chambliss has taken advantage of his opportunities and impressed in the role. This is not going to be an easy test, but Trinidad Chambliss will have time in the pocket and he has shown he has the patience to hit the spots needed when throwing the ball down the field.
Over 1800 passing yards have been thrown and a single Interception has been issued out in that time, while Chambliss has 8 Touchdown passes. The Gamecocks have shown some quality in defending the pass, but the Secondary may not have all of the answers needed in this game and that gives Ole Miss the edge.
It is a big spread, which is always a concern in a competitive SEC, but you have to wonder how much the Gamecocks have left in the tank after giving Alabama all they could handle last week.
South Carolina are 1-1 against the spread as the road underdog in the SEC this season, which makes them dangerous, but this is another road game at the end of a tough run of games and just before the Bye Week. It could be easy for the Gamecocks to look ahead to that and have one final push towards the end of the regular season, and that would leave them vulnerable to a high-scoring Rebels team.
It may need a late turnover/score for the Rebels to push past this line, but they are at home and Mississippi can produce a solid, statement win that just keeps them in touch with the leading teams in the Conference.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 18.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
UCF Knights + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)
Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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