The final games of October are still full of intensity, but there will be a shift in mentality when Week 10 rolls around in the College Football.
It will officially begin the final month of the regular season and teams will really begin to take notice of the College Football Rankings as they try and push their way forward into the Playoff spots. Those in the bigger Conferences will know that they control their own destiny, but there has been a lot of upheaval through the first eight weeks and so opportunities could quickly be found as the Conference schedules are concluded and rivals throw a spanner into the works for the teams they are facing.
Last week was frustrating in the sense that a couple of backdoor covers hurt the selections made.
It could easily have been another 4-1 week, but the decision from Jonathan Smith to kick a Field Goal with less than 30 seconds left and with his team down by 28 points was bizarre to say the least. In a week where NBA athletes have been charged for insider information, Smith's actions will have raised eyebrows previously and especially as it meant his team covered the 26 point line set.
The Arkansas Razorbacks were trying to fight their way back into their own game when scoring a backdoor cover- the frustration there is that they converted a couple of Fourth Downs and also had a 2nd and 33, but managed to avoid needing a Fourth Down in that moment. One play here or there, and both would have returned winners so it is a frustration both landed in the losing side of the occasion.
We move onto Week 9 and the selections once again all come from Saturday action.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: The opening defeat to the Florida State Seminoles has not aged very well, but playing in the SEC means there were always going to be opportunities for the Alabama Crimson Tide (6-1) to prove themselves worthy of playing in the College Football Playoff.
Credit has to be given the team for a 4-0 record within the Conference and wins over the Georgia Bulldogs, Tennessee Volunteers and Missouri Tigers gives the Crimson Tide the inside track to play in the SEC Championship Game and earn one of the twelve Playoff spots that will be handed out at the end of the regular season.
They will be going into a Bye Week following this game and the Crimson Tide still have some challenging games on the schedule in a loaded Conference. Next month they will face the LSU Tigers, Oklahoma Sooners and Auburn Tigers, but the scary prospect for all of Alabama's rivals is that Head Coach Kevin DeBoer believes there is more to come from his team.
Any road game in the SEC is going to be a test and the South Carolina Gamecocks (3-4) will be motivated to snap their two game losing run. Head Coach Shane Beamer continues to downplay links with the Virginia Tech Hokies where his father Frank had so much success, but the distraction is perhaps partly to blame for the disappointing efforts in back to back losses to the LSU Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners.
The latter of those defeats was at home in Week 8 and it is going to be tough for an inconsistent Offensive unit to get things turned around.
While it has been possible to run the ball against the Alabama Defensive Line, the Gamecocks have not had any consistent success in pounding the rock as the competition has ramped up. That has made things much tougher for LaNorris Sellers at Quarter Back, who was expected to really grow in the position this year, and it is always very difficult to make plays from third and long spots on any consistent basis.
Playing behind an Offensive Line that has struggled to stand up to the pass rush has only increased the difficulty for LaNorris Sellers and he is expected to be under pressure in this one. There will be some successful moments, but sustaining drives is not going to be easy for South Carolina and that is going to make it tough to keep up on the scoreboard.
The step down in level of competition should help the Alabama Crimson Tide this week as they continue to find a way to get their Offensive unit up to the standards expected in Tuscaloosa.
One player who has been improving the more time he spends on the field is Quarter Back Ty Simpson and his numbers have been key for the Crimson Tide- 18 Touchdown passes with a single Interception would capture the attention for any team, but doing so while playing the majority of games in the SEC is very impressive and Simpson is likely going to be a key figure in this game.
The Crimson Tide have not really been able to run the ball very well in recent games in the SEC, and they are not expected to have a lot of success against this Gamecocks Defensive Line. That has not stopped the Crimson Tide having success on this side of the ball thanks to Ty Simpson and his improving chemistry with some big time Receivers and this is a chance for Alabama to leave everything on the field before heading off for a Bye Week.
With a spread set where it is for this latest SEC game, the Crimson Tide will likely need the Defensive unit to set up a couple of short fields.
They have shown they can do that and Alabama's Quarter Back can do enough to push the Crimson Tide clear, even in a relatively low-scoring game.
Alabama are 9-0 against the spread before playing the LSU Tigers so there is no reason to believe they will be looking past South Carolina to a game taking place in two weeks time. And with the Gamecocks struggling Offensively, the SEC favourites can win this one by a couple of Touchdowns on the road to enhance their place at the top of this powerful Conference.
Texas A&M Aggies @ LSU Tigers Pick: There are only two teams in the SEC who are unbeaten in Conference play and the Texas A&M Aggies (7-0) are the only one that have yet to suffer a defeat in any game this season. The road win over the Arkansas Razorbacks improved the Aggies to 4-0 in the Conference, but they continue to move through a very difficult remainder of the schedule as the bid for a Conference Championship and a place in the College Football Playoff remains the final ambition.
This is a very tough road game, even if the LSU Tigers (5-2) have dropped to 2-2 in the SEC and look on course for a fourth year in a row where they have underachieved.
Pressure has to be building on Head Coach Brian Kelly and the next couple of games could really determine what happens at the end of the season. While the chances of earning a spot in the College Football Playoff already look like they are fading, the fans are going to make their feelings known about Kelly after games against the Aggies and Alabama Crimson Tide and going 0-2 might mean the end of this Head Coaching tenure.
This is a night game hosted by the LSU Tigers and it is expected to be wet so there are some challenges for the Aggies to overcome, but they look like the stronger team on both sides of the ball and that should play out.
Texas A&M have shown they can win in tough environments already this season and they will have plenty of faith in the Offensive unit in this Week 9 game.
Over the course of the season, the LSU Defensive unit have produced some solid numbers, but the move into the SEC schedule is where teams are really going to be judged. And with that in mind, it is clear that the Texas A&M Aggies should be able to have some success running the ball against this Tigers Defensive Line, which is where any hope of consistency is usually built.
This is a huge chance for the Aggies to pick up from where they left off in the win over the Arkansas Razorbacks and it should mean Marcel Reed is going to be operating in third and manageable spots. The Quarter Back has been given ample protection in recent games, which makes things that much more comfortable, and operating in front of the down and distance should mean Marcel Reed is able to help this Aggies Offensive unit make a point about their capabilities to the rest of the SEC and to the Playoff Committee.
After seeing how the Razorbacks were able to attack the Aggies last week, the more important question in a game like this one is whether the LSU Tigers can manufacture enough Offensive output to keep themselves competitive or not?
Fans of the team would be unlikely to be offended if you said the Tigers have underperformed on this side of the ball and they have been incredibly inconsistent.
This game does give the Tigers Offensive Line a chance to at least change some of the narrative considering the huge chunks of yards that have been given up by the Aggies Defensive Line and that feels really important in the bid for the home upset. Keeping the team in third and manageable would help contain what has been a very effective Aggies pass rush, while also putting Garrett Nussmeier in a position where the burden does not feel so heavy on his shoulders at Quarter Back.
He will not have to hold onto the ball for too long if the team is able to establish the run and there are one or two holes in this Texas A&M Secondary that can be attacked with some success. Garrett Nussmeier played a clean enough game in the loss to Vanderbilt last time out and that gave his team a chance, but the Tigers have come up short and the feeling is that something similar may happen here.
Consecutive road games is a tough spot for any team, but one in the SEC will know those challenges even more.
However, Texas A&M look a lot more confident than the LSU Tigers on both sides of the ball and they may just keep the home team at arm's length, as they did to Arkansas, while coming away with a narrow cover of this spread.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Oregon Ducks Pick: They won the Big Ten Championship last season, but the Oregon Ducks (6-1) have work to do if they are going to be able to defend that crown in December.
They are expected to win out this season, which is still an important goal for a team that will be looking to retrn to the College Football Playoff regardless. However, the defeat to the Indiana Hoosiers means they are trailing both them and the defending National Champions Ohio State Buckeyes in the Conference who both have 4-0 Big Ten records.
After losing that game to the Hoosiers, Oregon made the Rutgers Scarlet Knights pay the price and the Ducks are expected to crush the Wisconsin Badgers (2-5) in Week 9. Back to back defeats are one thing, but Wisconsin have not scored a single point against Iowa and Ohio State and the Badgers have lost five in a row overall, while also propping up the rest of the Conference at 0-4 in Big Ten play.
Third year Head Coach Luke Fickell understands his position and it is hard to imagine him keeping his job if the Badgers are to suffer another losing season.
Injury to Quarter Back Billy Edwards Jr is not helping, but this Badgers team looks short of the qualities needed to compete in a Conference which is likely to have the most, or joint most, teams playing in the twelve team College Football Playoff.
After what has been witnessed in recent weeks, it is incredibly difficult to know how the Wisconsin Badgers plan on getting any Offensive production this week.
They cannot run the ball and that has meant inconsistent production out of the Quarter Back, regardless of who that has been. In Week 9 they are facing an Oregon Defensive unit that has been very strong all season and Wisconsin scoring any points might be seen as a win, which underlines how far the Badgers have fallen.
The key to the spread is obviously going to be how motivated Oregon are to put up another big effort on the scoreboard, and they should be as they look to continue to impress the Playoff Committee. Jayden Limar is missing at Running Back, but that is not likely to slow down the numbers that the Ducks are able to produce on the ground and they should be able to rip off some big gains throughout the game.
Dante Moore is expected to have time in the pocket when he does drop back to throw and he should have a lot of success from the Quarter Back position. This Badgers team have lost their way and the Secondary have allowed some big plays, which should all add up to Oregon having their way no matter if they choose to run or throw.
It is a big spread, but Oregon will be looking to match the Ohio State win, which came by 34 points on the road- being at home should make it more comfortable and everything is pointing to a big Ducks win.
Michigan Wolverines @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: It might not feel that long ago that this rivalry game could have a huge impact at the top of the Big Ten and for College Football Playoff positions. However, these days the Michigan State Spartans (3-4) are struggling to stay competitive and the 0-4 record in the Big Ten underlines the problem.
Two years ago the Michigan Wolverines (5-2) were National Champions, but they were just 8-5 last season after the unbeaten 2023 run. They are 3-1 in the Big Ten and the Wolverines have bounced back from the defeat to the USC Trojans, while there looks to be an opportunity to climb into the Playoff picture if they can win out this season.
It would include beating rivals the Ohio State Buckeyes for a fifth time in a row and so there is this feeling that there is a lot more to lose for the Wolverines compared with the Michigan State Spartans.
The Spartans are on course for a fourth losing year in a row and the real concern has to be how easily they have been beaten in the Big Ten this season.
Michigan State's Offensive Line have not been able to establish the run all season and that has really become a big issue when stepping into the Conference schedule. They are not expected to have a lot of joy trying to impose themselves at the Line of Scrimmage in this game and that really does put a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back to try and make plays from third and long spots on the field.
After the run of defeats, the Spartans have begun to take a look at Alessio Milivojevic at Quarter Back, but they have been struggling for any consistency out of the position. It doesn't help that the Offensive Line have not been able to stand up in pass protection, although the Wolverines have not been generating the kind of pass rush that they would have liked.
Even then, whether it is Milivojevic or Aidan Chiles at Quarter Back, Michigan State are likely going to see some drives stall, while they are also going to have to be aware of the Michigan Secondary and the ability to turn the ball over.
Running the ball should be more effective for Michigan when they have the ball and that is where the road team have the edge, even when it comes to covering this big spread in a rivalry game.
Keeping the team in third and manageable is clearly an advantage, while Bryce Underwood is developing at the Quarter Back position. He has over 1400 passing yards with 7 Touchdowns and a couple of Interceptions, but has also shown that he can escape pressure and make plays with his legs where needed.
Third and manageable also means being able to make plays through the air with some consistency and that should be the case against the Spartans Secondary. Keeping things ticking over is important as Michigan look to remain close to the very top of the Big Ten.
Rivalry games can produce upsets and Michigan State will be highly motivated to disrupt the Michigan plans for the remainder of the 2025 season. However, they were blown out when last hosting the Wolverines and the the Spartans have simply not shown enough consistency to believe they can avoid another relatively comfortable Big Ten loss.
Head Coach Jonathan Smith played for a cover last week, which is quite remarkable and there is always a chance he gets his team to kick a Field Goal rather than risk going for a Touchdown late in the game, which may cover again, but the Wolverines look strong enough to win by three scores, even on the road.
MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 31.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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