Right now you have to feel the top of the NFL has a vacuum to fill with every team showing signs of vulnerabilities and an opportunity for a surprising team to come through the pack looks to be wide open.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions were amongst the best teams in the NFL last season and both look very capable of making a real run, especially if they can get back up to full health. Out of the two teams, the Chiefs are certainly looking pretty good as right now, while the Lions will be hoping the Secondary will be looking much stronger in December when things really begin to matter.
Teams like the Baltimore Ravens are already in a really difficult situation as injuries have piled up, and the same can be said for the Cincinnati Bengals, while the likes of the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles have suffered consecutive losses since opening 4-0 and have displayed some worrying issues of their own.
If the Playoffs were to begin today, the Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots would be top four Seeds in the AFC, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles would be in the same position in the NFC.
Not many would be rushing out to back any of those teams to win the Super Bowl this weekend, but it just underlines the openness at the very top of the NFL.
Over the coming weeks the best teams should begin to separate as more games, and thus more data, is seen by the fans.
It will be interesting to see how many of those eight teams mentioned are still occupying top four Seeds at the beginning of December with more than half of the games played and Bye Weeks completed.
The hope is that by then we will also see a big improvement in the numbers for the NFL Picks after another difficult week for the selections made.
Everything came down to the final game of the Sunday action, but the Detroit Lions were well beaten by the Kansas City Chiefs and almost meant a losing week was secured.
The last of the London games will be played this Sunday and the reality is the games have been as poor as expected when the announcement was made ahead of the 2025 schedule being released.
Both the Denver Broncos and New York Jets produced a horrific game in Week 6 and it is very hard to justify the pricing that the NFL have placed for the games they are sending over to London.
They will feel they have saved the best for last, but Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars means the teams coming over have largely been selected from the bottom third of the League. If the NFL wants to continue charging a fortune to watch the games, hopefully they will send over better teams in 2026, but there are other international markets that will also be demanding the same.
It has been a tough opening six weeks to the season for the NFL Picks, but we go again and that all begins on Thursday Night Football in a AFC North Divisional game.
Picks will be added to the thread in the next couple of days.
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There are a number of trends that have to give you pause for though immediately and those are all suggesting that backing the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) would be a mistake. The team have just crushed the Cleveland Browns at home to take a firm grip of the AFC North, especially as the main rivals have been decimated by injury, but Pittsburgh have regularly laid an egg in this kind of spot.
Head Coach Mike Tomlin is widely respected, but he has a losing record against the spread when set as the favourite- that is pretty incredible to think about considering he has never overseen a losing season, but you can make a case that the teams considered 'strong' by the public will have to deal with inflated lines.
But how about the fact that the Steelers have a 1-10 record on Thursday Night Football when facing a team that are coming in off a loss? You could suggest that the short week means Pittsburgh overlook some opponents, although a Divisional game should increase the focus.
The last time the Steelers were asked to lay at least this many points on the road was back in 2020 when it happened in three games and they were only 1-2 against the spread.
Face it, the Pittsburgh Steelers are not a team you want to make with this kind of line or on Thursday Night Football having lost three of their last four appearances on the short week outright.
So why do I think the Pittsburgh Steelers will win and cover? They are facing a Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) team ravaged by injury and who are led by Joe Flacco, a Quarter Back who is only getting to grips with what is expected from him and who has had his difficulties facing Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers Head Coach was offering Flacco plenty of praise, while also criticising the Cleveland Browns for dealing the veteran within the Division to a rival that was 'hurting' in that position. Joe Flacco was not able to prevent the Bengals from losing at the Green Bay Packers in Week 6, but he has a few more days to get used to the team and played pretty well in the second to give him some momentum to build on.
Even if Joe Burrow had been healthy, the feeling was that this was going to be a tough season for the Cincinnati Bengals if they could not fix the Defensive problems that had blighted them in 2024. Those have only been magnified with little Offensive output with Jake Browning under Center, but Joe Flacco will find a way to get the ball out to his big time Receivers.
However, the problem in a game like this one is that the Bengals have been incredibly one-dimensional.
Chase Brown has not been able to do much behind this Offensive Line and the Bengals are unlikely to suddenly start ripping off big gains against this Steelers team. After a slow start to the season, the Steelers Defensive Line are looking more like their old selves when it comes to clamping down on the run and they can certainly do enough to make sure Joe Flacco is operating from third and long spots on the field.
The veteran has Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase ready to catch balls and the Pittsburgh Secondary have been vulnerable in the passing game, so you have to expect some positives from the home team. However, the Offensive Line have been struggling in pass protection as much as run blocking and they are going to have to deal with a very strong Pittsburgh pass rushing team that will get to Joe Flacco and stall drives.
And that is ultimately where the feeling is that the Steelers will find a way to win and cover.
The backdoor is always potentially open, especially because we have yet to see the Pittsburgh Offensive Line help establish a consistent running game. They should be able to impose themselves on this Bengals Defensive Line much better than they could against a strong Cleveland Browns team, although there is work to do and Aaron Rodgers is likely going to be key for the road team.
Another veteran at the position, Aaron Rodgers has been pretty well protected in recent games and that has allowed him to keep the chains moving. This week he is facing a team that is expected to be without their best pass rusher and who have struggled to have much of an impact up front anyway, and that should mean Aaron Rodgers has the time to dissect a Secondary that has allowed over 250 passing yards per game.
Recent games have seen the Bengals Secondary declining further and Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers should be in a position where they are moving the chains with a lot more consistency than this Divisional rival.
The Bengals have failed to cover in each of their last three games when set as the home underdog, while a stronger Cincinnati team have lost three home games in succession against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
A final drive is likely going to decide whether the road team covers or not, but they are going into the mini-bye and the hope is that Aaron Rodgers is not thinking ahead to a game with the Green Bay Packers coming up in Week 8.
A late Interception may just secure the cover for the Steelers and they can cover this mark set, even if that means overcoming a number of trends that are going against them in this spot.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Rams Pick: The last of the London games in 2025 will be played at Wembley Stadium in Week 7 and it features what has become something of a 'home' team for British fans. The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) will continue the partnership with London in the next couple of years too and the familiarity of playing overseas should mean the team are prepared for the contest.
Most of the teams playing in London will come over a few days early to acclimatise, but the Los Angeles Rams (4-2) have decided on a completely unique plan.
They beat the Baltimore Ravens on the road in Week 6 and decided to stay in the area rather than heading back to the West Coast- this means being 'only' five hours behind London time, but Sean McVay and the team have decided they will not fly over to England until Saturday morning, just twenty-four hours before kick off and that is something that has not been done before.
Of course it is a 'business trip' as far as the Rams are concerned, but the conditions in Baltimore have been much warmer than London and there will be plenty of people taking notes as to how the NFC West team performs.
On paper this looks a winnable game and the Rams are favourites after the Jacksonville Jaguars suffered a home loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week. However, Los Angeles will be without their top Receiving option in Puka Nacua and that is a big blow considering he has picked up over 35% of the yards thrown by Matthew Stafford this season.
Throwing is going to be tough anyway if the weather forecast is correct- Wembley Stadium does not have a roof and it is expected to be a day of consistent rain, which is going to make things tough right through the game. And so while the Rams will obviously miss Puka Nacua and his production, the game plan may have been one that looks to keep the ball grounded for long periods and rely on a much shorter passing day.
Fumbles from both Running Backs cost the Los Angeles Rams against the San Francisco 49ers and so there will be pressure on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. But if they can do that, they should give the Rams a chance to at least keep their veteran Quarter Back in front of the chains, while Matthew Stafford's experience of facing all conditions should also be a big help.
In saying that, Stafford will know it is much harder to throw in the rain and if it is a really wet day, he may not expose this Jaguars Secondary as much as would usually be the case. Even without Nacua, the Rams do have players capable of making plays against a team that has been giving up a huge amount of yardage through the air and so the expectation is that Los Angeles will find a way to keep things ticking over.
Jacksonville have made a strong start to the season, but the conditions could make this a tougher day for them Offensively compared with the Los Angeles Rams. Earlier in the season the Offensive Line had been opening up some big running lanes, but some of that momentum has been lost more recently and this Los Angeles Defensive Line has been built to clamp down on the run with a potential Playoff game against the Philadelphia Eagles in mind.
They have largely been successful at doing that and the Rams do get a pass rush push up front that is likely to rattle Trevor Lawrence if he is stuck in third and long spots. With the expected rain, it would be a really tough spot from which to keep converting, even with the improving chemistry with Brian Thomas Jr, and the Rams Secondary may be looking for a turnover or two in order to swing this game firmly onto their side.
You have to respect the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games played in London, while there has to be some uncertainty about the approach taken by Los Angeles to fly in as late as they for this Week 7 game.
Being without one of the top Receivers in the NFL is an obvious blow, but the Rams do match up well with the Jaguars and the rainy conditions gives Los Angeles an edge. They are the stronger team at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball, while Matthew Stafford is going to be throwing against a Secondary that has been having more issues than the Rams Secondary in recent games.
The lean has to be with the Rams in this opening game on Sunday in Week 7 of the NFL season.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns Pick: These two AFC teams may already be thinking about the end of the season and how high they can finish in the Draft Order after miserable starts to the 2025 year. They have a combined two wins between them through six weeks and the Cleveland Browns (1-5) and Miami Dolphins (1-5) are about as where so many believed they would be in the pre-season.
Out of the two teams, the Dolphins will be most disappointed having looked like a team on the up a couple of years ago, but the franchise Quarter Back has not really reached the level hoped. Some of that is down to the injuries suffered by Tua Tagovailoa, and the team had begun to lose key pieces on the Defensive side of the ball heading into the new year.
With Tyreek Hill out and perhaps leaving Miami at the end of the season, rumours suggest that the Dolphins will be willing to listen to offers for personnel on both sides of the ball. Jayden Waddle, Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips have all been involved in trade rumours, while Tagovailoa's comments about some of his team-mates after the latest loss will not have gone down very well at all.
There will be more patience in the Cleveland Browns locker room, especially with a rookie Quarter Back leading the team.
However, this is a team that have a very good Defensive unit and that may be the key difference in the game.
Tua Tagovailoa has apologised to his peers for his comments, but he is going to need some of those to step up and make plays for him. De'Von Achane has been an important figure in the Offensive game plan, but he figures to have a tough time running the ball against this Browns Defensive Line and that will shift the pressure onto a Quarter Back who may be playing the rest of the way to prove he is someone the Dolphins should be keeping faith with to lead them in the years ahead.
He should have some success in this game- the pocket has been kept relatively clean in recent games to afford Tagovailoa some time, although throwing out of third and long spots is always difficult. Using De'Von Achane leaking out of the backfield will be important and there have been some areas of this Browns Secondary that can be exploited, which will give Miami a chance.
The reality is the size of that chance depends on how this Defensive unit plays.
It has been bad for much of the season and even when needing a late Fourth Quarter stop against Carolina and the Los Angeles Chargers, breakdowns have allowed those opponents to score points to win games.
They are facing a rookie Quarter Back in Dillon Gabriel who hasn't exactly been lighting things up for Cleveland, although he does have 3 Touchdown passes without throwing an Interception.
This week Gabriel could be helped out by being given a strong running game to lean on- the Cleveland Offensive Line have not been opening up big lanes, but they are up against a Miami Defensive Line that have not been able to stop anyone on the ground. Quinshon Judkins should be able to get things going and putting the rookie Quarter Back in third and manageable is going to make life that much easier for Dillon Gabriel to show what he can do.
We saw against the New York Jets that the Miami Dolphins can get to the Quarter Back and the Cleveland pass protection has not really been as good as the Browns would have wanted. However, Dillon Gabriel may not have to hold onto the ball for too long if they have established the run as they should and there are Receivers capable of making plays against this Dolphins Secondary to keep the chains moving.
Neither team is particularly good, but you have to believe the Cleveland Defensive unit are the one most likely to stall some drives.
The Dolphins are just 4-10 against the spread since 2023 when set as the road underdog and they look to be a team that is preparing to blow it all up and start again.
A Quarter Back who failed to show much leadership skill and key players being linked with trades are distractions and even this Cleveland Browns team may have too much for Miami right now.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets Pick: Aaron Glenn will not have been moving to New York and expecting the Jets (0-6) to be ready to go, but the new Head Coach has to be extremely frustrated with how things have developed early in 2025. They have come close to a win or two, but the Jets have also had some really terrible performances and the loss in London to the Denver Broncos might have been the lowest.
It was an ugly game from both teams, but the Jets Offensive unit could not get anything going and they were fortunate to even pick up 9 points considering 6 of those were given away by the Denver Broncos.
Questions have been raised about a Quarter Back change- Justin Fields is clearly a great athlete, but he looks like he will be a career backup at best and Tyrod Taylor is an experienced leader at the position, even if not the long term answer. For now the decision has been to stick with Justin Fields as the Jets look to join the rest of the League in having a win on the board.
They are narrow underdogs against the Carolina Panthers (3-3) who have won three of their last four games, but have been something of a Jekyll and Hyde team depending where they are playing.
All three Carolina wins have been at home, but all three defeats on the road and something will have to change when these two teams face off in the Meadowlands.
Rico Dowdle will be looking to continue his huge surge of form having compiled over 200 all purpose yards in back to back games to lead the Panthers to wins over Miami and Dallas. The Offensive Line deserve credit for opening up some solid running lanes for Dowdle and he is facing a Jets Defensive Line that have had issues stopping the run all season.
However, the home and road rushing numbers are significantly different for the Panthers and that will raise some doubts about their abilities here.
It is very important for Carolina to establish the run and put Quarter Back Bryce Young in the best position to succeed- Young has been chalk and cheese depending on where he has been playing and the one positive for this Jets team is the play of the Secondary with some strong players to call upon.
You have to believe Bryce Young will continue to lean on Rico Dowdle and the Offensive Line though and they should have success moving the ball.
After that miserable performance last week, the New York Jets will be looking to get things going on the ground and see if that can open up the passing lanes. Justin Fields is capable of moving the ball with his legs and Breece Hall is playing well, although the latter is surrounded by trade rumours which can be a distraction.
The recent performances of the Carolina Defensive Line will pose a challenge for New York, assuming the Panthers can take that strength up front onto the road. Clamping down on the run would make things very difficult for the Jets who are without Garrett Wilson and have had erratic displays out of the Fields arm.
Indecision from Justin Fields has led to Sacks, but he should have a cleaner pocket in this one when he does step back to throw.
However, without Wilson, the targets are going to be a little more inconsistent in their own ability and it could be another tough day in the office for Quarter Back and team.
The Jets are two weeks away from the Bye Week, which is when they may be able to make bigger changes, but this is a team that looks lost right now. Players have to be wondering if the Head Coach has given up on things with the decision to stick with a struggling Justin Fields at Quarter Back and they are facing a Carolina Panthers team that have won two in a row.
Playing on the road has been a real chore for Carolina, but this is as good a chance as they will have to end that poor run and the Panthers may edge this one with what could develop into the superior rushing outcomes.
New York Giants @ Denver Broncos Pick: This has to be seen as an incredibly difficult scheduling spot for the Denver Broncos (4-2) who have travelled back from London in Week 6 after getting the better of the New York team that plays in the same Conference. It was an ugly win, but a win, although now the Broncos have to host the New York Giants (2-4) who have enjoyed something of a mini-Bye after upsetting Divisional rivals the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football to open Week 6.
One issue for the Giants is that they are playing a non-Conference opponent in between an Eagles sandwich, but New York have a couple of rookies on the Offensive unit who will offer intensity and enthusiasm.
Both Jaxson Dart at Quarter Back and Cam Skattebo had huge impacts in the win over the Eagles- Dart had 195 passing yards with a Touchdown and added 58 yards on the ground with another Touchdown, while Skattebo had 98 rushing yards and three Touchdowns.
That is obviously hugely positive news, but this week the Giants are facing a tough Defensive unit that has allowed an average of just 254 total Offensive yards per game and who have been even better at Mile High.
Establishing the run against this Denver Defensive Line is going to be a huge test for the New York Giants, even with a dual-threat like Jaxson Dart behind Center. Daniel Jones and Justin Fields both have that capability too, so Denver should be pretty well prepared to face this rookie Giants Quarter Back if he does decide he wants to tuck the ball and run.
Making that all the tougher is going to be the fact that the Broncos pass rush has really been dialled up to eleven of late and they have been rampaging into the backfield. It is going to be a huge challenge for the Giants Offensive Line to not only prevent them collapsing the pocket and limiting places for Dart to run, but to give the Quarter Back any significant time for routes to develop down the field, especially with no Malik Nabers in the lineup.
Jaxson Dart has been able to look after the ball, but keeping the chains moving with consistency against this Broncos Secondary will be incredibly tough and the home team have to feel pretty confident about their chances.
In regards to the spread, the question really becomes whether the Broncos can produce the consistency needed with a significant line in front of them.
They were really poor in the second half against the New York Jets in Week 6, but this is a chance for JK Dobbins and company to bounce back. Sean Payton wants his team to run the ball and this Broncos Offensive Line have been very capable of opening up lanes for Dobbins and Bo Nix, while the Giants are not really a team that have shown they can hold up when the rock is being pounded at them.
All things being equal, it should mean Bo Nix is in a position to have a bounce back game of his own against this Giants Secondary that has been torched at times.
The Quarter Back will be protected and there are some experienced Receivers who can make plays for him down the field, while the likes of Troy Franklin can take the top off the Secondary. Being back at home should help Denver and they should be the team having the most consistent success and it could lead to a solid home win.
The Broncos have been productive at home in wins over Tennessee and Cincinnati- the Giants will feel their own Defensive unit is better than those two, but that does not feel like a significantly tougher challenge for Bo Nix and the rest of the team on this side of the ball.
Penalties have actually been a bigger problem for the Broncos and they need to clean those up if they are going to challenge in the loaded AFC West. If they can produce a cleaner game, the Broncos should have too much for a New York team that may already be thinking about a rematch against the Philadelphia Eagles.
MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Steelers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 7 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
2025 Season: 16-17, - 2.33 Units (33 Units Staked, - 7.06% Yield)
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