Games are becoming that much more important and the margin for error becomes narrower and narrower as teams jockey for places in the Championship Game and then being invited into the Playoff.
One loss is not fatal, although depending which team hands that out, but two losses becomes problematic, although this season feels much different than those we have seen over the last fifteen to twenty years.
In an era of the transfer portal, many people are suggesting that the top teams are pretty tightly bunched these days and historically successful schools are being challenged by 'up-starts' wherever you look.
If the ACC Championship Game was played this weekend, it would be between Georgia Tech and Virginia, while the SEC Championship Game would be Mississippi against Texas A&M. The Indiana Hoosiers surprised everyone last year by making the Playoff, but this is a school on the up and the upset win over the Oregon Ducks means they are leading the way in the Big Ten.
So much can change between now and the end of Thanksgiving Weekend, but it does feel like teams with two losses are likely to be involved in the Playoff.
The likes of Notre Dame and Texas may feel they have little more room for error having suffered two defeats already, but they are right in the mix, while an improving Clemson Tigers team already has three losses, but are slowing climbing the ranks in the ACC.
The way things are panning out, there are going to be some controversial decisions that may be needed to be made by the College Football Playoff Committee once all the Championships have been handed out.
And anyone who needs to sign up to play, you can use the links for Bet365, Bodog and Bovada to do so.
Texas A&M Aggies @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: Only two teams remain unbeaten that are playing in the SEC and the Texas A&M Aggies (6-0) are going to have that challenged in the next four weeks. They will be playing three consecutive road games in that stretch, with one Bye Week ahead of Week 11.
Two of those three teams to be faced have a single loss each, but first the Texas A&M Aggies play a second road game of the season at the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-4).
This is the first SEC road game following a win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend earlier in the season and the Aggies are down as significant favourites having compiled a 3-0 start in the Conference.
However, they will have noted the fight that the Arkansas Razorbacks produced in the loss at Tennessee last week and so nothing can be taken for granted.
A new Head Coach search continues for the Razorbacks, and they are 0-2 in the SEC this season, but they showed against the Volunteers that this is a team that will not give up easily. Being motivated at home is much easier too and there is not a lot wrong with an Offensive unit that is well balanced and capable of moving the chains consistently.
That does make the Arkansas Razorbacks a team that has to be respected, although they are facing a Texas A&M Defensive unit that have thrived on this side of the ball.
It all begins up front for the Aggies with a Defensive Line that will feel they can find a way to slow down an Arkansas team picking up 6.1 yards per carry. Even as the competition has ramped up, the Razorbacks have continued to impress with the way they have been able to move the ball on the ground, and this is going to be a key part of the game.
The Aggies will believe that winning up front will make it tough for the Razorbacks to make the plays through the air against this Secondary- the other side of the coin is that Arkansas may feel that being ahead of the chains may just open the door for Taylen Green to get the ball out of his hands quickly and make the passes needed to keep the Offensive unit chugging.
A narrow lean has to be with the Aggies, who will then look for the pass rush to really rattle this Quarter Back, while turnovers are always important. Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, ball security has been a real issue for them in recent games and extra possessions for the road team will feel like a serious edge for the favourite.
As good as the Razorbacks have been with the ball in hand, they have been tremendously poor Defensively and that is where those extra possessions can really hurt.
It is very difficult too see how Arkansas can make any kind of consistent stop when they have been allowing teams to run and throw the ball with efficiency. In recent games teams have ripped off huge gains on the ground and that is almost certainly going to be the case for the Texas A&M Offensive Line, which in turn will make things very comfortable for Marcel Reed at Quarter Back.
He will have seen the huge passing numbers being allowed by this Secondary, while Reed is not expected to face much in terms of pass rush pressure when he does drop back to throw.
Avoiding turnovers will give Texas A&M a huge edge in this contest and there is every chance they can beat the Razorbacks for a fourth time in a row.
Games between the rivals have usually been sent to neutral field in recent years, but Texas A&M have a chance to really make a statement by winning this one in a true road setting.
A couple of key stops and perhaps a turnover or two will be important as far as this spread goes, but the Aggies are capable of creating those and they may be able to win this one with something to spare.
Michigan State Spartans @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: Two years ago, the Indiana Hoosiers (6-0) finished with a 3-9 record and Head Coach Tom Allen was fired after his seventh year at the helm.
In came Curt Cignetti and even the biggest, most optimistic fan could not have foreseen what was to come.
Last year the Hoosiers finished with an 11-2 record and had been invited into the College Football Playoff and there was a concern that they would struggle to match those heights again. Instead, Indiana have not only begun this season unbeaten, but they are 3-0 in the Big Ten and have just produced an incredibly important win at the home of the Oregon Ducks.
Suffice to say, the Hoosiers are now favourites to reach the Big Ten Conference Championship Game and return to the Playoff.
With Penn State capitulating and hit by key injuries, the Indiana Hoosiers have a clear path to win out, but the Head Coach will be reminding his players to focus. He has underlined his commitment to Indiana by signing a big contract extension and Curt Cignetti has stated he is not going anywhere after being linked with a now vacant role with the Nittany Lions.
The fans are going to be ready to get right behind this team and Head Coach.
Standing in the way is the Michigan State Spartans (3-3) who have lost all three Big Ten games played this season.
The Spartans were 7 point favourites last time out, but you would not have guessed that as they were crushed at home by the UCLA Bruins and it is hard to imagine them being very competitive here, as the spread set for the game makes clear.
The Line of Scrimmage is so, so important in any American Football game and the Michigan State Offensive Line have really had problems opening up running lanes all season. That has been very true as they have moved into Big Ten play and they are not going to get any change out of this Hoosiers Defensive Line and so the pressure is immediately on Aidan Chiles and the Spartans passing game.
Well it would be on Aidan Chiles, but the Quarter Back has to be seen as a major doubt for the road team, which would mean Alessio Milivojevic is given the start. This would be a huge issue for the Spartans with the inexperience of Milivojevic, and especially if the Quarter Back is being asked to do more with the team playing behind the chains.
He will be faced up by a fierce and productive Indiana pass rush, while the Hoosiers Secondary have stepped up another level as the competition has ramped up.
With all that said, the big question is whether the Indiana Hoosiers focus for long enough to earn the blowout, or do they begin to look ahead to Week 9 and a game against a UCLA team that have won two in a row.
The expectation has to be that the extension signed by Curt Cignetti and the team returning home after consecutive road wins will have the fans right behind the Hoosiers and push them to secure a big win.
The last time Indiana played here, they beat Illinois by 53 points and they are going to be very comfortable calling plays with the ball in hand.
Michigan State's Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run and this should see the Indiana Hoosiers constantly playing in front of the chains and will allow Quarter Back Fernando Mendoza to continue to enhance his reputation at the position. Running the ball efficiently means opening up the playbook in the passing game and Mendoza will certainly feel his Receivers can win out and find spaces in this Spartans Secondary.
There is no doubt that this is a big number, but the Hoosiers look a team on a mission and it may be difficult for Michigan State to find anything consistently Offensively. That should mean field position is in favour of the Hoosiers, while there is also the chance that an inexperienced Quarter Back makes mistakes to offer up those extra possessions to allow Indiana to pull clear.
Indiana are more than capable of crushing teams here, as they have shown in the home wins secured so far this season, and the Spartans could be the latest to be shown how improved this Hoosiers program is under Curt Cignetti.
Texas Longhorns @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: Losses to the Ohio State Buckeyes and Florida Gators have put the pre-season Number 1 Ranked team, the Texas Longhorns (4-2) in a difficult position. They will have taken a lot of confidence out of the fact that they were able to win the Red River Rivalry game against previously unbeaten Oklahoma Sooners and that means the Longhorns are 1-1 in SEC play.
The Playoff Committee are almost certainly going to forgive Texas for the loss to the Buckeyes, but the defeat to the Gators is more damaging.
It all means that Texas are likely going to need to win out to earn an invite into the College Football Playoff and they have to build on the momentum from beating Oklahoma.
This is a second road game to be played in the SEC after that loss in Gainesville, but Texas should be more comfortable against the Kentucky Wildcats (2-3) who have already been beaten in all three SEC games played this season. The most competitive defeat was at home against the Mississippi Rebels, but Kentucky were well beaten in road games at South Carolina and Georgia.
Kentucky have an experienced Head Coach and are coming into this one having been on a Bye Week in Week 7, but Mark Stoops is only 8-14 against the spread with his team having had rest.
One of the big issues that will have needed to be addressed is finding a consistent running attack to just ease the burden on Quarter Back Cutter Boley- the Wildcats Offensive Line have have really begun to struggle as the Conference play has gotten under way and they are not expected to have much success against this Texas Defensive Line.
That will mean Cutter Boley having to make plays from what could be a collapsing pocket around him and the Quarter Back will have noted the Interceptions that Texas have been able to pile up thanks to that pressure up front. The Longhorns Secondary have played the pass well enough to believe they can make stops if they can back up the Wildcats into third and long spots on the field and one of the pre-season favourites have a big edge on this side of the ball.
You cannot completely dismiss Kentucky's chances of making some plays and have some Offensive success, but it is unlikely to be consistent and the potential for turning the ball over is higher than they would like.
The Wildcats Defensive Line are going to have to play well to see if they can give their own Secondary some protection by making sure Texas are stuck in third and long spots. Over the course of the season, Kentucky have been pretty good at playing the run, but they will have some tough moments against this Longhorns Offensive Line.
Any time the Longhorns are in third and manageable spots, they will feel comfortable with much talked about Arch Manning at Quarter Back.
The young player will have time in the pocket considering the lack of pass rush success the Wildcats have had in recent games, and Manning will certainly have noted some of the passing numbers being given up by the home team. Playing on the road is a different test for most at this level and Arch Manning will have to show what he has learned from that defeat at the Florida Gators, but this is an 'easier' match up and Texas should make that clear with the way they manage things.
Texas have not really impressed as much as was hoped in pre-season, but they can keep the positives ticking over after the win over the Oklahoma Sooners. Games against Georgia and Texas A&M in November are going to be huge for the Longhorns, but they have to make sure they are riding a four game winning run when facing the Bulldogs and that means winning here.
With a turnover or two, the Longhorns can surpass the performance of the Mississippi Rebels, who won by 7 points here, and Texas are capable of covering this big line as the road favourite.
Missouri Tigers @ Auburn Tigers Pick: They have won twenty-one games between 2023 and 2024 and the Missouri Tigers (5-1) had made a perfect start to 2025 going into a big 'prove it' game in Week 7 against the Alabama Crimson Tide.
It was a nip and tuck game throughout, but Missouri came up short and they are looking to bounce back in a big road test in the SEC and make sure they keep themselves in contention for a College Football Playoff spot.
The defeat to the Crimson Tide has dropped Missouri to 1-1 in Conference play, but they are facing an Auburn Tigers (3-3) team who will still be wondering how things got away from them in Week 7 against the Georgia Bulldogs. The second half performance has led to some questioning whether a change needs to be made at Quarter Back, while others will point to some questionable first half officiating in the eventual loss to the Bulldogs, and Auburn will go into this game at 0-3 in the SEC.
Another losing season in Auburn is unthinkable, but that is what Head Coach Huge Freeze and the team are facing and fans are not going to be very happy.
A really big problem for the Auburn Tigers has been the inability to establish the run and the Offensive Line are set to face a Missouri team that have been very good up front. Even Alabama failed to average 3 yards per carry against the Missouri Defensive Line and Auburn are not expected to have a lot of joy, which means all eyes will once again be on Quarter Back Jackson Arnold.
He has failed to live up to the expectations and there has been some talk about handing things over to Ashton Daniels, who has started twenty games for Stanford. In that time, Daniels has 21 Touchdown passes, but also 20 Interceptions and so Hugh Freeze has announced he will roll with Jackson Arnold again.
After facing Georgia, this is another very big test for Arnold at Quarter Back and he is likely to be feeling plenty of heat from the Missouri pass rush in this game. The team have not helped by having Jackson Arnold try to pilot the Offense from third and long spots, but he is likely going to have to do that here and Missouri's pressure up front will stall drives.
Credit has to be given to Jackson Arnold for the fact that despite that pressure being faced, he has yet to throw an Interception and Punting is not always a bad thing, even if the fans are going to voice their frustrations around that.
This could develop into a battle of field position and so keeping things clean is key for the home team and especially as Missouri are out on the road for the first time in 2025.
Missouri's Offensive Line did give the team a chance in the loss to Alabama last week and they were able to run the ball with some effectiveness, even if Ahmad Hardy was not able to reach the levels he had prior to the game with the Crimson Tide. With a dual-threat ability from the Quarter Back position, Missouri should feel they can run the ball with some success, even against this tough Auburn Defensvie Line, and that will be important in a tough road environment.
Quarter Back Beau Pribula has been keeping his running numbers down earlier in the season, but made an impact with his legs against South Carolina and Alabama. That will be needed again to keep him out of third and long spots, especially having thrown 5 Interceptions already this season.
Two of those were thrown in the loss to Alabama and it is vital for the Missouri Quarter Back to avoid mistakes in this one. He should be playing with a relatively clean pocket, which will certainly help, and using the legs is important, while also being reminded that a Punt is not a detrimental situation to be in.
Eliah Drinkwitz has proven himself to be a solid Head Coach and his Missouri Tigers are 12-7 against the spread following a loss, while they won't be concerned about being set as road favourites having produced a 6-0 record against the spread in that spot since 2023.
Playing after a big test against Alabama is difficult, but Auburn were battling Georgia in Week 7 and invested plenty themselves to come up short again in the SEC.
Hugh Freeze is 6-3 against the spread playing with revenge with Auburn, but Missouri can do just enough to win this one and maintain their place amongst the top teams in the Conference. They could be the team with a bit more consistency Offensively, and that can show up in this Conference game, although one that will likely go down to the wire.
Utah Utes @ BYU Cougars Pick: There is a real rivalry between these teams and this year the 'Holy War' will be used to separate some of the top teams in the Big 12 Conference.
The BYU Cougars (6-0) are unbeaten and 3-0 in Conference play, while the Utah Utes (5-1) are 2-1 in the Big 12- last year the top of the Conference came down to tie-breakers and so this is game that could give the fans bragging rights, but also perhaps offer one a route into the College Football Playoff in December.
All credit has to be given to the Utes for bouncing back from a thumping against Texas Tech Red Raiders and they have won two in a row. Not only have they won those games, but the Red Raiders have completely dominated West Virginia and Arizona State and that is perhaps why they have been set as the favourite.
They also play with revenge having lost to the Cougars last year, and Utah are going to want to lean on the Offensive Line and see if they can bully BYU in the trenches. Doing that would put the Utes in a really good position Offensively, especially as the Cougars Secondary have been playing at a strong level.
Devon Dampier will likely be operating with plenty of protection and that will give him a chance to make some big plays as he looks to help Utah push themselves into a position to move past this rival in the standings.
However, the Cougars Offensive Line are also going to be pretty confident that they can establish the run and that will give the home underdog every chance of keeping this competitive and perhaps even earn the upset.
Just as is the case on the other side of the ball, BYU understand and appreciate the importance of having plenty of success on the ground to keep the team in front of the chains. The Utah Secondary is playing very well and they do get a bit more a push up front when Quarter Backs have stepped back to throw, which will cause problems if the Cougars are stuck behind the chains.
BYU have won two in a row in this rivalry and they do look worthy of being backed with the points to keep things tight on the scoreboard with a Field Goal win either way being likely.
MY PICKS: Texas A&M Aggies - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 27.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
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