The first quarter of the NFL season is in the books and the injuries are seemingly never ending with some of the top names in the League spending, or about to spend, serious time on the sidelines.
As has been mentioned before, picking Super Bowl Winners is so very hazardous in a League where seventeen regular season games have to be played to make the post-season and knowing that one or two injuries can change the entire outlook for a team.
At the time of writing, the Lamar Jackson injury has not been disclosed neither in seriousness or how many potential weeks he will miss, but he is almost certainly not going to be playing in Week 5. There won't be a single NFL fan that doesn't recognise the drop the Baltimore Ravens will have at the most important position in the game if Jackson is to miss time and Cooper Rush is going to take over and that is not only down to the talent differences.
Cooper Rush just won't be able to come close to replicating what Lamar Jackson will do, while the injuries in key Defensive positions had already weakened the team.
It could become a long 2025 season for the Ravens, although they will have little sympathy from AFC North rivals Cincinnati Bengals who have not been able to do much without Joe Burrow at Quarter Back. Both of these teams could end up becoming involved in the trade market to fix things up, but they look short of Kansas City and Buffalo, who have to be the leading teams to once again compete in the AFC Championship Game.
Offensive Line injuries have also been occurring all over the place and on Thursday Night Football the San Francisco 49ers will hope a skeleton crew can somehow earn a victory in a Divisional game on the road.
More injuries will occur and thoughts go out for Tyreek Hill and the awful looking injury he suffered on Monday Night Football against the New York Jets.
Some of those last weekend impacted the selections made, but Week 5 offers the chance to bounce back.
Selections will be added over the course of the next couple of days, but we will begin with the Thursday Night Football game to be played in Los Angeles, although the personal focus will be on Game 3 of the Wild Card Series being played between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.
The trio of London games will begin this Sunday featuring the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns, and Week 5 also represents the beginning of Bye Weeks for teams around the League.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: Three teams are leading the way in the NFC West with the same 3-1 record and two of those are facing one another on Thursday Night Football when the Los Angeles Rams host the San Francisco 49ers.
It is the Rams who have won the last three in the head to head, and they also earned a victory in Week 4 on the same day that the San Francisco 49ers saw their unbeaten record ended in a home defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That alone would not be a massive concern, but the 49ers are banged up across both Offensive and Defensive units and that leaves them very vulnerable in a short week.
Brock Purdy was playing at Quarter Back in Week 4, but he is trending towards sitting out on Thursday Night Football as the 49ers look to help Purdy manage his turf toe issues. It helps that Mac Jones is available this week and he has helped San Francisco earn a couple of wins while leading the team in Purdy's absence, although the bigger issue is that his top Receiving options are all hurt and some are going to have to sit out.
In most cases, teams would look to make up for that by handing the ball to the Running Back and using the ground game to stay in front of the chains. The 49ers have a very good Running Back in Christian McCaffrey, but the Offensive Line have not really been opening up the kind of gaps that McCaffrey would exploit, while they are also facing a Los Angeles Defensive Line that has been rebuilt with defending the run in mind.
This is going to make life difficult for Mac Jones, especially if some of the top targets have to sit, while the Rams pass rush has been very effective all season and has helped this Secondary play at a strong level.
After a late comeback defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Rams bounced back to score a late Touchdown in beating the Indianapolis Colts and this is a team that is playing with a lot of confidence.
Matthew Stafford is playing well and he has a couple of very strong Receivers to help out, while the Rams Offensive Line should have more success in establishing the run.
This will give Stafford the manageable down and distance to expose this San Francisco Secondary, especially as the 49ers pass rush has been struggling and is going to be without Nick Bosa the rest of the way. The Secondary have played the pass pretty well this season, but San Francisco have not faced a Quarter Back playing at the level of Matthew Stafford and this could be a game that potentially gets out of hand for the road team.
Sean McVay has Coached really well in Divisional games, while Kyle Shanahan is 3-6 against the spread in the last nine following a defeat. The latter also had a tough record when facing NFC West teams last season, while the San Francisco 49ers were 0-3 against the spread when set as the road underdog in 2024.
You could potentially make a case for a backdoor cover if the Rams lose a bit of focus, but you have to believe there is plenty of motivation to secure a big win over a Divisional rival.
If they can come out and make an early statement Defensively, Los Angeles should have the momentum to take the game to the 49ers and ultimately cover this line set. It is one that has moved out past the key number 7 since the news broke of the players sitting out for the San Francisco 49ers, but the Rams may still be able to secure a double digit win to push this Divisional rival back to 0.500 for the season.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: One blown coverage ended the unbeaten start to the season, but the Indianapolis Colts (3-1) will be looking to bounce back immediately and reinstate their belief that they are the best team in the AFC South.
Two crushing wins over the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans and a fortunate one over the Denver Broncos made for a good start to the season, but the Colts were narrowly beaten by the Los Angeles Rams.
Being back at home will help and the Colts are also going up against a struggling Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) team that have been guilty of shooting themselves in the foot.
A one point loss to the Chicago Bears makes it three defeats in a row for the Raiders and it is never easy having to play in the early time slot for teams out West.
Running the ball has been the focus for the Raiders, but they have lost a key part of the Offensive Line to injury and that could make things tougher this week. They are also going up against an Indianapolis Colts Defensive Line that have looked improved at clamping down on the run and that will mean it could be up to Quarter Back Geno Smith to find a way to keep the chains moving.
The veteran has been struggling with the Raiders having issues in pass protection and Geno Smith has to know he is going to be put under pressure whenever in obvious passing situations. There are some talented Receivers on the roster, but that pressure has forced mistakes and Smith will need to be careful against this Secondary, even after the unexpected sudden retirement of Xavien Howard during the week.
Indianapolis received a bit of positive news on the other side of the ball with Matt Goncalves set to take his place on the Offensive Line and this should also be good news for Jonathan Taylor. The Running Back is facing a tough Defensive Line, but he will be hoping his healthy Offensive Line can open up a couple of lanes and Taylor has shown that is all he needs to take the ball and carry it down the field.
He will be aided by the running threat that comes with a Quarter Back like Daniel Jones and the Colts may feel they can get something going on the ground, even against a solid enough unit like the one the Raiders will trot out to stop them.
Daniel Jones won the starting job and has begun the season really well, although he did throw his first couple of Interceptions of the season last week.
Having eyes on Maxx Crosby is key and if the Colts can contain the pass rusher, Daniel Jones should have enough time in the pocket to attack this Secondary, while play-action is another important part of the game-plan. The Colts have really shown something Offensively through four games and they can keep that going, especially back at home, and it should give them a good chance to bounce back in a winning effort.
Raiders Head Coach Pete Carroll is still trying to stamp his authority on his team and it just feels like Las Vegas are making enough mistakes to believe one or two more in this game will help Indianapolis along to win and cover this line set.
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Any team holding a perfect record through four weeks of the regular season have to be considered a good one, but there feels something a little underwhelming about the Philadelphia Eagles (4-0). The concern for the rivals who want to take the Super Bowl crown from the Eagles heads is that there was room for improvement midway through last season before Philadelphia really picked up their levels and ultimately won it all.
No one around the Eagles camp will be too concerned, but you have to accept that they are very fortunate to have an unbeaten record.
However, they do have some solid wins on the board and that makes Philadelphia dangerous if they are winning games without being at their best.
Next up is a game against the Denver Broncos (2-2) who ended a run of consecutive defeats by blowing out the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. The short week is not ideal, but Head Coach Sean Payton will have his team well prepared and there are going to be opportunities for Denver to capitalise on.
Sean Payton will want to keep the strong Eagles Offensive unit on the sidelines and the Denver Broncos have prided themselves on being able to run the ball really well behind this Offensive Line. They will have noted some of the early struggles that the Eagles have had up front, and Philadelphia are allowing 4.6 yards per carry in games since the Dallas opener when you could forgive the challenges up front after Jalen Carter was thrown out of the game.
JK Dobbins should be able to have a good game and that is going to be a positive for Quarter Back Bo Nix, who has been given some very strong Receiving options to aid in his development at the position.
This Broncos Offensive Line are not only very strong when it comes to paving the road for the Running Back, but they have given Bo Nix protection. On Monday Night Penalties was the only issue for the Linemen and Sean Payton will have spent some time looking to clear that up with Denver not expected to have much success if they keep penalising themselves.
Bo Nix will have to be careful of this Philadelphia Secondary, which is playing well even when the pass rushers have failed to generate the same kind of penetration into the backfield as last year. He does have players like Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin who can make plays for him, and Nix will also be much more comfortable if the Broncos establish the run as anticipated.
If the Broncos are moving the ball with some authority, it can only give confidence to the Defensive unit who are considered as good as any other in the NFL.
Lane Johnson is available for the Eagles and he has proven to be a lynchpin on the Offensive Line, although Philadelphia have yet to get the run game going. They are averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and Saquon Barkley has made a quieter start to the season compared with his 2024 numbers, and it all adds up to being another tough day against this Broncos Defensive Line.
Jalen Hurts is another who can make plays with his legs, but the Eagles fans are looking for more out of the passing game- even Receiver AJ Brown has made his feelings clear about that. It hasn't helped that Hurts has been under pressure when dropping back to throw, especially as the team have been forced into third and long spots, and the Quarter Back could have Broncos pass rushers all around him during this game.
The pressure generated up front has been a big help to a solid Denver Secondary and this could be another game in which the Eagles are ultimately falling short of the number of yards the opponent has earned.
Opposing the Super Bowl Champions is never easy, but the Denver Broncos do look the right side with more than a key number 3 worth of points.
They can find a balance Offensively and the Broncos Defensive unit are capable of making some big plays to give the road team every chance of winning this one outright. However, taking the points is sensible in case of a late Field Goal kind of defeat.
Philadelphia could be potentially looking ahead to a Thursday Night Football Divisional game against the New York Giants and have simply not been playing at the level that may be required to beat a solid team like the Broncos.
The Eagles have covered the last five times they have played before a Thursday Night scheduled game, but they are only 7-6 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of last season. A blow out would be a surprise considering what we have seen through the first quarter of the new season and the Broncos are playing well enough on both sides of the ball to keep this one competitive.
Miami Dolphins @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Neither of these teams is looking like one that could challenge for Playoff spots at the end of the season and that means additional pressure on the Head Coach, General Manager and the players that are currently on the roster.
Everyone has a point to prove, despite the opening records.
The Carolina Panthers (1-3) will be hosting and they were absolutely crushed in Week 4, which meant failing to build on the upset over Divisional rivals Atlanta Falcons in Week 3. It was such a poor outing that Bryce Young was once again benched for Andy Dalton at Quarter Back, although the veteran is not expected to be announced as the starter.
They are facing a Miami Dolphins (1-3) team playing on a short week, but one that finally got on the board in the Monday Night Football win over the New York Jets.
However, it was far from the perfect night when Tyreek Hill went down with an injury that is going to keep him out for the rest of the season and is almost certainly going to be one that threatens his career.
Jayden Waddle will step up as the Number 1 Receiver going forward, but losing Hill is a huge blow and will make it that much more difficult for Miami to build on the momentum they may have picked up in the Week 4 win.
The Dolphins will look to lean on De'Von Achane who is a threat as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield, but who is also running behind an Offensive Line that has opened up some significant gaps to be exploited. It is impossible to ignore the issues the Panthers Defensive Line have been having all season and so Miami are likely going to look for Achane to get going early, which in turn will open up the passing lanes.
Tua Tagovailoa has not had a great season, but he made enough positive plays last week to believe he can keep it going in this game. Being in front of the chains is huge for the way Miami runs the Offensive unit and Tagovailoa is unlikely to be under a lot of pressure, which should mean the Dolphins are able to move the ball with some consistency throughout the day.
Despite the obvious struggles in the blowout loss to New England in Week 4, the Carolina Panthers have to believe that Bryce Young can bounce back in this contest.
It would make his life easier if the Panthers could get on track when it comes to running the ball, but that has been an early struggle for the Offensive Line. However, they are facing a Miami team that have really had problems stopping the run all season and so this feels like a good opportunity for the home team to put Bryce Young in a position to succeed.
The Dolphins Secondary played well enough against the New York Jets, but that was also because of the pass rush they were able to generate and keep Justin Fields moving. That has to happen again if the Dolphins want to force Young into some mistakes, while the Quarter Back is perhaps lacking a consistent threat outside, which also makes it tough for Carolina to move into a position to string wins together.
Carolina are a narrow home underdog, and they have been good in this spot since the beginning of the 2024 season, but Miami have covered in their last five games when set as the road favourite facing a team that has a losing record overall.
Miami are far from a good team, which makes it tough to back them to win games, but they should have enough balance Offensively to get the better of a struggling Panthers team, even on the road.
Tennessee Titans @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Divisional losses really do hurt a lot more than a normal loss and a couple of those NFC West defeats have dropped the Arizona Cardinals (2-2) into the basement of that Division. They have had additional time to prepare for this Week 5 game and it is an important one, even in a non-Conference setting.
They are hosting a Tennessee Titans (0-4) team who have had their Number 1 Overall Pick Quarter Back voicing his frustrations this week at the way the season has unfolded to this point.
Cam Ward has to be given credit for wanting to win, but this is a very difficult situation to be dropped into and the Titans feel a long way from contending. Things can turn around in the NFL pretty quickly, especially as the Titans look like they could end up leading the way with the top Draft Pick in 2026 when a number of intriguing Quarter Backs could be coming into the League.
For now it is a struggle and the Titans have just had so many issues Offensively that it makes it tough to move the chains with any kind of consistency.
Everything begins on the Offensive Line and the Titans have simply not been able to run the ball with any authority, which shifts so much pressure onto the shoulders of a young Quarter Back. They are not expected to have a lot of ground success in this game and so it will be up to Cam Ward to find his Receivers and hope they can make some plays for him.
If the Offensive Line have struggled to help establish the run, they have been worse at giving Cam Ward the time to let routes develop down the field. Sacks have been racked up by opponents and that has contributed to a really poor passing game, which makes it tough to believe Tennessee can even expose this vulnerable Arizona Secondary.
Replacing James Connor is not going to be easy for the Arizona Cardinals, but Trey Benson can have a much stronger game than he did in the defeat to the Seattle Seahawks.
Where Seattle can play the run pretty well, this Titans Defensive Line have struggled to stop teams on the ground and Benson, along with Quarter Back Kyler Murray, should be able to keep the team in third and manageable spots on the field.
The Quarter Back was the leading rusher in the loss to Seattle, and his legs remain a big weapon, but the Cardinals will want to see a bit more consistency in the passing game. Kyler Murray should be able to target a couple of solid Receivers when in front of the chains considering the lack of pass rush pressure that the Titans have generated early this season, and with a Secondary that is allowing more and more yards in recent outings.
A connection with Marvin Harrison Jr is getting better all of the time and the Arizona Cardinals can use the extra prep time to make sure they are back over 0.500 by the end of Week 5. They can cover an awkward number with Murray having a 13-7 record against the spread when suffering back to back losses and the Cardinals may become the latest to get the better of Tennessee by at least 8 points.
Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: After losing in Week 1 to NFC North rivals Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions (3-1) had to accept some of the criticism around the performance. After losing earlier than expected in the 2024 Playoffs, Head Coach Dan Campbell will not have been surprised by that, but this is a demanding Coach and the players have responded with three dominant wins.
They are facing the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 and so there is a chance that the Detroit Lions will be overlooking Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) who have lost two in a row since Joe Burrow went down with an injury.
Losses alone would not be a cause for panic, but the Bengals have looked completely uncompetitive without Burrow under Center- they have been outscored 76-13 in losing the last two games and Quarter Back Jake Browning has been struggling.
No one will dispute that going from Burrow to Browning is a big downgrade, but the Cincinnati Bengals have not helped their backup in any way.
For starters they have shown an inability to run the ball, even before their star Quarter Back was injured, and the Offensive Line is not expected to open up big holes against this Detroit front. It has meant Jake Browning being in obvious passing situations far too often, and he has been trying to allow the likes of Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase to get down the field, which has led to Sacks.
A healthier Detroit Secondary have been playing well and they do get plenty of pressure up front, which should set the Lions up for some short fields and potential turnovers.
Right now you do not want to give this Detroit team extra Offensive possessions and especially if your own Defensive Line is struggling to make a difference in the run game.
The one-two punch that Detroit continue to run out of the backfield is going to create huge problems for the Cincinnati Bengals and they should have David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs picking up big yards at a time.
Detroit will still give Jared Goff some opportunities to throw the ball and the Quarter Back is going to be in comfortable field position, while he is also going to have a clean pocket when he does drop back to throw. The Bengals Secondary were a cause for concern when the season began and they are not likely to slow down the Lions, which should ultimately lead to a comfortable road win.
It is a big line when you think the Lions are on the road and Jake Browning has not played here since coming in and helping Cincinnati beat the Jacksonville Jaguars. Being at home should just help the Quarter Back, although this Lions team are playing like they are reminding everyone how good they were in 2024 and what kind of ambitions they have in 2025 and that has seen them crush the likes of the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns.
The latter's fellow AFC North team do not look like they have the Defensive unit to slow Detroit, and it would be a huge surprise if Jake Browning and the Offense can keep up on the scoreboard.
MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 8.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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