It has been a season of backdoor covers going against the selections and there were a couple more last week to turn things in a negative direction again.
This has been a poor run, but we are only just reaching the halfway mark of the regular season and so the turnaround can hopefully begin in Week 7 and then build momentum over the coming weeks.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: Things can change so quickly and so dramatically in the world of College Football and that is evidenced by the losses picked up by the Texas Longhorns and Penn State Nittany Lions. The top two pre-season Ranked teams are already unranked, just weeks into the 2025 season, and the plight of both will be a warning to the other top teams around the nation.
Defending Champions Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) earned an opening week win over the Longhorns, although that victory does not look nearly as good now as it felt back in Week 1. Remaining undefeated has pushed the Buckeyes along and they are 2-0 in Big Ten Conference play after securing comfortable wins over the Washington Huskies and Minnesota Golden Gophers.
However, this game in Week 7 might be the toughest the Buckeyes have faced to this point of the campaign as they prepare to travel to the Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1) who are also 2-1 in the Big Ten.
A loss like the one suffered at the Indiana Hoosiers might have irreparably damaged the Illinois season- they were not just beaten in that opening Big Ten game, but they were embarrassed. However, credit has to be given to the players and the Coaching staff that Illinois have been able to bounce back with a home win over the USC Trojans and a road win over Purdue, the former being unbeaten when they faced the Fighting Illini, and another win in Week 7 will certainly have Illinois competing for a place in the College Football Playoff.
You would make the Fighting Illini favourites to win out if they are able to beat Ohio State this week, although the case for the team making the Playoff will be much harder to make if they were to lose to the Buckeyes having already been beaten by Illinois.
That means there is some pressure on Illinois as they look to become the first team to give this Buckeyes Defensive unit some questions to answer.
Through five games, the Ohio State Buckeyes are allowing an average of 5 points per game, while they have held teams to an average of just 215 total Offensive yards.
A couple of key players could be returning for the Fighting Illini on this side of the ball, but it is going to be very tough for the home team to produce consistently with the ball in their hands. The problems begin up front with the Buckeyes Defensive Line clamping down on the run and Illinois have been having issues establishing the run anyway, which suggests all of the pressure will be on Luke Altmyer at Quarter Back.
Luke Altmyer will take confidence from the performances he has put on the board, but throwing against this Buckeyes Secondary has proven to be a real difficulty for anyone attempting to do so. He is likely going to be in third and long spots, which is going to be a problem for an Offensive Line that has struggled in pass protection, and Altmyer is going to be attempting to make plays with said protection breaking down around him against this fierce Ohio State pass rush.
And as mentioned, Altmyer will still be trying to find spaces to exploit against the Ohio State Secondary that have been producing at a high level. Interceptions have not really been racked up by the Buckeyes, but they have stopped drives and that has allowed the team to pull clear for comfortable wins through the five games played.
Minnesota Head Coach PJ Fleck stated you have to 'pick your poison' when facing this Buckeyes team with the ball in hand and it is very difficult to see how Illinois are going to find consistent stops of their own.
Since the Big Ten play started, the Fighting Illini Defensive Line has allowed some huge chunks of yardage to be picked up on the ground and they are going to have issues against the Buckeyes Offensive Line that have opened up huge holes up front. With the team likely to be doing the same on Saturday, Julian Sayin will be kept in a comfortable position to make plays at Quarter Back and he is also targeting elite Receivers.
Over the last three games, teams are averaging over 300 passing yards per game against the Fighting Illini Secondary and so this feels like another comfortable day for Ohio State.
Julian Sayin has thrown 3 Interceptions, but also has 13 Touchdown passes and the Buckeyes should be really well balanced Offensively, which ultimately should lead to a solid win on the day.
These two Big Ten teams have not met since 2017, but the last five Ohio State wins have been by margins of 38, 25, 41, 25 and 30 point margins and the 2025 Buckeyes look capable of taking care of the spread set.
Illinois have been a really good underdog to back under Head Coach Bret Bielema, but they are 1-1 against the spread in that spot this season and the 53 point defeat to the Indiana Hoosiers is the one result that stands out the most.
Being blown out to that level at home is unlikely, but the Fighting Illini may struggle to stop Ohio State whenever the Buckeyes have the ball and that could lead to a big enough win to cover this mark.
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: They have bounced back in the manner that would have been expected after suffering an opening loss of the season, but the Tennessee Volunteers (4-1) cannot afford to look past any opponent right now. There is a huge game on deck against the Alabama Crimson Tide, but this is an incredibly tough Conference and another SEC defeat to the Arkansas Razorbacks (2-3) will be difficult to shake off as far as the Playoff Committee are concerned.
Once again the Georgia Bulldogs have gotten the better of the Volunteers, but they have won two games in a row as favourites and they are set as a solid home favourite ahead of Week 7.
They are facing an Arkansas team coming out of a Bye Week, but Head Coach Sam Pittman has been fired and it is Bobby Petrino who will be Interim Head Coach this week. It has meant a change in the way the Razorbacks prepare, while the team were absolutely embarrassed in a crushing loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 5, which is also a third straight defeat for Arkansas.
Encouragement has to be taken from the fact the Razorbacks had a competitive loss at the Mississippi Rebels in the sole SEC game played, while the Interim Head Coach is very experienced and has made a positive impact with the players.
Bobby Petrino had led Arkansas to back to back double digit seasons before being fired for inappropriate personal conduct back in 2012, and he may see this as an opportunity for redemption having made it clear that he was at fault for mistakes made over a decade ago. His players will also want to back up the Interim and bounce back from a really poor performance against Notre Dame and they could have some Offensive success in this game.
Running the ball effecitvely has been a feature of the Razorbacks all season, although pounding the rock against this Volunteers Defensive Line is a tough challenge. There will still be a feeling that the Razorbacks can have enough success on the ground to at least keep Quarter Back Taylen Green in a position to keep the chains moving and put Tennessee under some pressure.
Taylen Green has been well protected by the Offensive Line, although they will be dealing with a strong Tennessee pass rush, and he will be encouraged by the successes teams have had throwing the ball against this Secondary. Avoiding Interceptions may be challenging, but Green should have strong passing numbers and that at least gives Arkansas a chance to put a competitive performance on the board.
However, the problem has been the other side of the ball with the Razorbacks struggling to stop opponents thanks to an inability to avoid teams finding plenty of Offensive balance.
Simply put, the Razorbacks neither stop the run nor the pass and that has allowed the better opponents faced to rack up the numbers and ultimately score plenty of points against this team. Arkansas can blame the defeat to the Memphis Tigers in Week 4 because of that inability to stop a team doing what they want and they are unlikely to have much success against this strong Tennessee Offensive unit.
You have to expect the Volunteers Offensive Line to establish the run and they could rip off some big gains on the ground, which only makes life very comfortable for Joey Aguilar when he is asked to drop back to throw. With very little push up front, Aguilar is likely to have a clean pocket and he should be able to make this Arkansas Secondary pay whenever he wants.
That balance is going to make it very tough to stop Tennessee from piling up the yards and ultimately the points and the home team may be able to create a turnover or two in order to cover this spread. They do have Alabama on deck, which could allow a backdoor cover, but Tennessee were upset by Arkansas in 2024 and that will not be far from the mind of the players or the Coaching staff.
Respect has to be given to Arkansas for pushing Ole Miss in a road loss and they have the capabilities of scoring plenty of points too, but those potential extra possessions is where Tennessee can eventually pull away for a win by a couple of Touchdowns.
Florida Gators @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: Two weeks ago, the Texas A&M Aggies (5-0) may have allowed the Auburn Tigers to hang around, but ultimately the Aggies picked up another SEC win. They are now 2-0 in the Conference and it was a game that was dominated by Texas A&M with the scoreline nowhere near a reflection of the performance.
They will need to do a bit more in College Station in Week 7 as the Aggies look to remain unbeaten against a Florida Gators (2-3) team that just upset the Texas Longhorns. That has pulled the Gators back up to 1-1 in the SEC and cooled the increasingly hot seat upon which Head Coach Billy Napier has been sitting, although fans may still be demanding something changes at the end of this season.
There are big expectations to be met by the Aggies who have an experienced team, but this is a tough Gators Defensive unit as Arch Manning found out in Week 6.
However, there is a bit more confidence around the Aggies Offensive unit and having a week to prepare for this game will help. Running the ball against the Gators is goign to be challenging, but Quarter Back Marcel Reed will feel that his Offensive Line can offer him the time to throw successfully against this Florida Secondary.
Perhaps more important is the improved performances of this Aggies Defensive unit and they will certainly feel they have the edge over the Gators, even if the road team played better than expected against the Texas Longhorns.
Texas A&M have a Defensive Line that will clamp down on the run and they will feel they can win up front and force DJ Lagway to beat them with his arm.
The Quarter Back showed he can do that in the Week 6 upset, but that was at home and DJ Lagway has been far from consistent when dropping back to throw the ball down the field. He will also likely have to deal with what has been a productive Aggies pass rush and that will make it tough for Lagway to see routes develop to try and exploit what has been a very good Aggies Secondary.
Once that pressure has ramped up, DJ Lagway has been guilty of making some back-breaking turnovers and that could be the case to not only allow Texas A&M to win, but to also cover this mark.
The Aggies were embarrassed when last hosting Florida, but they won by double digits in Gainesville in 2024 and they can earn a redemption for the home loss of 2022 by winning this one by double digits too.
Clemson Tigers @ Boston College Eagles Pick: It is going to take a special set of results over the next few weeks to give the Clemson Tigers (2-3) any chance of returning to the College Football Playoff. The team have to put that aside and instead focus on making sure they are 1-0 every week and see where they land after a miserable start to the season.
They are 1-2 in the ACC, but Clemson won very well at the North Carolina Tar Heels last week, which should give them some momentum.
Next up is another road game when travelling to the Boston College Eagles (1-4) who have a lost all three Conference games. In the main the Eagles have been competitive, but they were blown out by the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 6 and picking themselves up will not be easy.
Boston College have struggled to run the ball all season and in recent games it has been a big problem.
They are not expected to have a lot of success on the ground and inconsistency in the Quarter Back position has really held the Eagles back. They used three different players in the position in the thumping to the Panthers, but this Clemson Secondary has given up some yards through the air and so Boston College may at least put up a few more points than they managed in Week 6.
Clemson are expected to have a balanced approach to their Offensive play and that is why they have been set as a significant favourite. They should be able to establish the run and Cade Klubnik can impress out of the Quarter Back position with some of the limelight moving away from the Tigers and onto other teams.
This may allow Klubnik to shine a bit more and he should be comfortable in third and manageable spots on the field.
The Tigers are also going up against a Boston College Secondary that have allowed the opposition passing game to thrive and it should give the road team an opportunity to clear this big spread for a second week in a row on the road.
These teams last met here three years ago and Clemson produced a big win.
It is clear that the Tigers are not as good as previous teams that have represented the school, but they should be good enough to beat this struggling Boston College team.
Georgia Bulldogs @ Auburn Tigers Pick: The season opened with three straight wins, but the Auburn Tigers (3-2) return from a Bye Week having suffered consecutive losses and both to SEC rivals. Those losses on the road to Oklahoma Sooners and Texas A&M Aggies have already made the pathway towards the College Football Playoff look unlikely, but Auburn's lingering hopes will be erased completely if they are to drop this game at home.
They are well rested, although Auburn are 1-3 against the spread coming out of a Bye, and the Tigers do have home advantage.
However, they are facing a Georgia Bulldogs (4-1) team who are looking to continue their recovery after the defeat to the Alabama Crimson Tide by securing a second consecutive SEC victory. Last week the Bulldogs beat the Kentucky Wildcats at home and Georgia could be very much back on track to make their way into the College Football Playoff if they can win this game and then beat the currently unbeaten Mississippi Rebels in Week 8.
Playing on the road is never easy, but the Bulldogs outlasted Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville earlier this season and Auburn have not looked very good in the previous two SEC defeats.
As the competition has ramped up, Auburn's Offensive Line have struggled to make an impact in the run game and that has put the team in a difficult position. The Tigers will not be expected to have a lot more success trying to pound the rock against this Georgia Defensive Line and so it will be up to Jackson Arnold to perhaps step up for the home team.
The Quarter Back has looked after the ball, which is all well and good, but Head Coach Hugh Freeze may be looking for Jackson Arnold to perhaps take a few more risks. No one wants to turn the ball over, but Arnold has been pretty safe with his decisions, although that may also be partly down to the pass blocking problems that the Auburn Offensive Line have had.
He should have a bit more time in this one, and the Georgia Secondary have given up some big yards so there is an opportunity for Jackson Arnold. However, the Quarter Back will have to do something he has yet to prove this season and the Bulldogs may still be relatively comfortable with having Arnold try and make plays from third and long spots on the field.
Georgia are not going to be marching up and down the field themselves so playing the field position battle is important.
Much like Auburn, it is going to be a real challenge for the Bulldogs Offensive Line to establish the run and try and take the pressure away from Quarter Back Gunner Stockton. He has shown he can be a dual-threat with five rushing Touchdowns scored, but Stockton has been inconsistent as a passer and that will give Auburn a real feeling of finding a way to earn the upset.
Gunner Stockton has made a few more mistakes in the passing game and turnovers could be crucial in this game- he should have time to make his throws in the pocket though and that will give Stockton a chance to help the Bulldogs move the chains, although doing so with consistency is much harder to believe in.
Despite that, the Bulldogs should still have too much for the hosts who have been dominated by this SEC rival in recent years.
Eight straight wins have been produced by Georgia over Auburn and most have been relatively one-sided.
This one should be more competitive, but the Bulldogs have the talent edge and Auburn have already found Oklahoma and Texas A&M too good for them. The Bulldogs look about as strong as those two SEC teams and Jackson Arnold may not have the confidence to make the plays that Auburn expects from him at crucial moments, which may in turn mean another Touchdown margin of victory for the Georgia Bulldogs in this big Conference game.
MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment