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Tuesday 6 October 2020

French Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2020 (October 6th)

Idiotic.

Honestly that is the only way I can describe Alexander Zverev after it was announced that he had not been feeling well before his Fourth Round match and should not have played.

And he admitted this himself.

In usual circumstances you could forgive Zverev for trying in a Fourth Round of a Slam, but none of this year has been normal... What makes him an idiot at best is that he decided he did not need to follow any of the protocols nor feel he should be tested to make sure he hasn't contracted Coronavirus.

Now usually I would be more forgiving, but this was the same person who was supposed to self-isolate back in June when the Balkans exhibition tournament was hit with a number of Covid-19 positive tests. Instead of that he was caught out at a restaurant or a party in which he was surrounded by others and ultimately this lack of care for those around him makes Zverev a fool.

He should be rightly criticised in all quarters and I am looking forward to hearing what Nick Kyrgios has to say on the matter.


We are down to the Quarter Finals at the French Open at a increasingly wet Roland Garros which may mean the remainder of this tournament is essentially an indoor event. I am not sure that suits anyone more than Novak Djokovic in the Men's draw, while someone like Petra Kvitova may feel she can hit through the court a little more.

Both draws look pretty open with a few days left in Paris and I think there are a number of players still involved that will feel they can go all the way and pick up a Major title.


I am hoping for a bit more luck behind the selections than I have gotten in the weeks since the Tour resumed- perhaps playing in these new conditions has just knocked the model a little bit after three successful Tennis seasons, but it is something I will have to look to adjust if I don't see an improvement in the days ahead and the remainder of this year.


Dominic Thiem - 1.5 sets v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: That was a really tough Fourth Round match that Dominic Thiem had to get through and he will largely feel he has only himself to blame for being dragged into a five set match.

It came against an opponent that Dominic Thiem will feel he should be easing past, but Hugo Gaston received a huge boost from the home crowd and the US Open Champion has now spent over ten hours on the court in Paris. To be fair that isn't a huge amount of time considering it is a heavy clay court that the players are dealing with, but Thiem is likely going to have to dig deep again if he is going to make another Semi Final in Paris.

His opponent is the Rome Finalist Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who beat Rafael Nadal in the Italian capital on his way to the Final. Unlike Dominic Thiem, it has been plain-sailing for Schwartzman through the draw having won all four matches in straight sets and needing less than two hours on the court in the Fourth Round which should mean the Argentinian is as fresh as he needs to be.

As always, the return has been a huge weapon for Schwartzman here in Paris while his own serve is one that can be vulnerable on most surfaces. He has won the break point battle in each match with more created than his opponent, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman had given up at least ten chances in the Second and Third Round and that will not be good enough against Dominic Thiem.

While he has been able to dominate on the return in this tournament, Schwartzman is now facing a heavy Dominic Thiem serve which has won at least 65% of service points played in each match here. Before the last Round, the Austrian had faced only eighteen break points in three matches and he had only dropped serve five times.

Hugo Gaston had plenty of success against Dominic Thiem, but I do think the latter is going to be better in this match as long as he is not offering the spaces for the drop shot as he did in the Fourth Round. Despite the break points given up in the Fourth Round, Thiem won 70% of service points played and the serve is going to be important to keep on top of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman.

These players are very familiar with each other with this being the ninth professional meeting between them and it is Dominic Thiem who leads 6-2. That becomes 3-1 when only considering the clay meetings and Thiem has won seven of the nine sets they have played against each other on this surface.

In those matches Diego Sebastian Schwartzman hasn't played badly when it comes to the return of serve, but he has won less than 50% of his service points and that makes it difficult to win sets let alone matches. Dominic Thiem did not return as well as he would have liked in the Fourth Round, but in the first three matches here the Austrian looked comfortable on the return of serve and I think he is going to be able to move through in three or four sets.

The match is likely to be played indoors so Thiem should be pretty happy with the overall conditions and I expect him to keep up his dominance of this opponent.


Rafael Nadal - 9.5 games v Jannik Sinner: The first point you have to make is that this is a huge spread for a Quarter Final of any Grand Slam tournament, but Rafael Nadal is not any competitor when it comes to the clay courts of Roland Garros.

He might not have looked at his most comfortable in the Fourth Round against another youngster Sebastian Korda, but even then Rafael Nadal came away with a 6-1, 6-1, 6-2 win and that pretty much sums up his tournament. The 12 time French Open Champion has simply not been tested and even when you think he might be, Nadal has put his clay court experience together to dominate matches.

The relatively early loss in Rome was a concern going into the tournament and Rafael Nadal admitted that the conditions might not be ideal, while it also can't be ignored that the Spaniard is not at his best in indoor tournaments. That is what he might be dealing with in this Quarter Final but Rafael Nadal has been playing at a very high level through the first four matches here and doesn't look to be worrying about what he is facing on the other side of the net.

On Tuesday he will go up against the talented young Italian Jannik Sinner who had a strong Rome tournament and has played well so far this at the French Open in his debut in Paris. You have to respect the performances of Sinner, but before the last month he has not shown a real pleasure for playing on the clay courts and now faces the ultimate test in Nadal.

His numbers have just declined in each of the four Rounds played here in Paris and Jannik Sinner may have benefited from the illness that Alexander Zverev was dealing with in the Fourth Round. Even then, Jannik Sinner struggled to find the consistency on the return and actually faced more break points than he created and you do have to worry that he won't have the consistency of shot to break down someone as strong as the former World Number 1.

Rafael Nadal has been very consistent with his returning and has broken serve at least five times in each of the matches played here in this tournament. The Spaniard has only dropped two service games in the entire tournament and I do think Rafael Nadal is going to be a little too solid for Jannik Sinner in this one and get the better of a big number.

A 6-3, 6-3, 6-2 score will do the job and Rafael Nadal is more than good enough to do that on the last match on the main show court in Paris on Tuesday evening.


Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Nadia Podoroska: The lack of crowds and the lack of competitive tennis for a number of months have been suggested as reasons that so many of the underdogs have been able to have strong runs at the French Open in 2020.

A couple of Qualifiers have made the last eight of the Women's draw and one of those is Nadia Podoroska and coming out of Argentina means she is someone who is comfortable on the clay courts. She reached a Semi Final on the surface at the beginning on September and Podoroska has really impressed on her way through to the Quarter Final here.

Nadia Podoroska easily negotiated the Qualifying Rounds and two of her four wins in the main draw have been very impressive. In the other two wins I have to respect the fact that Podoroska has held herself together at key times in three set wins over Yulia Putintseva and Barbora Krejickova.

It is the return which has been really effective from Nadia Podoroska and it is something the higher Ranked player and favourite Elina Svitolina will have to be aware of. In each of her main draw matches, Podoroska has won at least 51% of return points played, although she did allow more break point chances than she created in her Fourth Round win.

The serve is one that can be attacked by Elina Svitolina who is coming off an impressive one-sided win over Caroline Garcia in the Fourth Round. After a poor 2019 on the clay, Svitolina won the title in Strasbourg in preparation for the French Open this year and she is easily coming off the best performance in Paris in this tournament.

Before the win over Garcia, Elina Svitolina has been consistent without being a dominant performer, but she has only dropped a single set in the tournament. The first two Rounds were much tougher matches than the Ukrainian would have been hoping for having allowed more break point chances than she created, but the serve looks to have picked up in the last two Rounds and that is a real positive for Svitolina as we reach the business end of the French Open.

She has been returning effectively throughout the tournament and I think that is important for her here as she looks to deal with the pressure of being a pretty big favourite. We have seen Elina Svitolina crumble in the latter stages of Grand Slams when the pressure has ramped up on her, and that is always a concern when backing her to not only win matches, but win by wide enough margins to cover numbers like this.

However, I do think Elina Svitolina is going to be able to reach a level that is eventually too high for Nadia Podoroska to match and through those moments she should be able to take this Quarter Final away from the Argentinian Qualifier.


Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Martina Trevisan: Not many would have picked Iga Swiatek versus Martina Trevisan as a potential Quarter Final, but both impressed in their Fourth Round upset wins and deserve their place in the final eight.

The underdog in this one is Qualifier Martina Trevisan who has used her strong returning numbers to spark her run through the draw to this Quarter Final. The Italian has not really been someone who has performed at a very high level before this tournament began and her numbers prior to the event have been pretty average on the clay courts even though she has not been someone competing at a top level.

Martina Trevisan still needs to be respected though and her return has been causing a lot of problems for her opponents in the French Open. She has won at least 51% of return points in each of the four matches played in the main draw and Trevisan has had at least six breaks of serve in each of her last three matches.

It is the kind of numbers that need to be given the respect they deserve, although Martina Trevisan has struggled with her own serve and will need to be much improved if she is going to earn yet another upset in the tournament.

That side of the Trevisan game is expected to be highly tested by Iga Swiatek who crushed Simona Halep in the Fourth Round to earn revenge for a one-sided loss in 2019 at the same tournament. The young Polish star has long looked like a very good player on the clay courts and she is going to be difficult to stop if she continues to win at least 51% of return points played as she has through this tournament.

It seems to have given Swiatek some confidence as she has only faced ten break points through her first four matches and looks to be serving very well. To put those numbers into context, Martina Trevisan gave up TWENTY break points in her Third Round win over Maria Sakkari and I do think the serve is going to be key for Iga Swiatek in this Quarter Final.

When these players met on the grass courts in June 2019, Iga Swiatek was able to dominate on her serve against Martina Trevisan and I do think the latter is going to struggle to stay with her younger opponent. Ultimately my feeling is that Trevisan will not be able to serve as well as Swiatek and that can lead to a strong win for the latter.

There is always a fear that expectation weighs heavily on a player that has just crushed the Number 1 Seed, but I think Iga Swiatek is quite level-headed. She has reached the Doubles Quarter Final too, but it is the time for Swiatek to really announce herself to a wider audience by making her first Semi Final as a Singles Grand Slam competitor.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 9.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

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