I should have this thread filled out a little more before the Sunday Week 8 games in the NFL.
For now you can read my selection for Thursday Night Football and the NFC South Divisional Game that is on deck.
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Two NFC South Divisional rivals meet on Thursday Night Football and it feels like it is a much bigger game for the hosts than the visitors. The Carolina Panthers did lose a heartbreaker in Week 7 to rivals the New Orleans Saints which has dropped them back under 0.500 for the season, but at 3-4 they are in a much stronger position than the Atlanta Falcons.
Despite firing Head Coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons continue to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and it was more of the same in Week 7. Since removing Quinn the Falcons did win their first game of the season, but a brain freeze from Todd Gurley meant they allowed the Detroit Lions to drive down the field and win in Week 7 to drop Atlanta to 1-6.
Even an expanded PlayOff that the NFL are running at the end of the season is unlikely to be wide enough to allow the Falcons to recover from their current position.
Todd Gurley had to simply stop on the one yard line and he would have set up the Falcons for a game winning chip shot as time expired, but the Running Back didn't do that and barrelled in for the Touchdown. It meant the Falcons were only leading by less than a converted Touchdown and the mistake was all the more jarring as Gurley had previously been praised for doing exactly that when a member of the Rams.
Bouncing back won't be easy for the Falcons, but they should at least be motivated by the chance of earning revenge over the Panthers who left Georgia with a win earlier this month. Atlanta look much healthier now on both sides of the ball than they were when these teams met in early October and I do think they have a chance of securing an upset win as long as the players are not feeling sorry for themselves.
There is a real opportunity for Todd Gurley to make up for his mistake in Week 7, even though it still has to be pointed out that the Defensive unit could have done more to stop the Detroit Lions driving the full field and scoring the game winning Touchdown too. The Running Back will be going up against a Carolina Defensive Line which has struggled to stop the run all season and I do anticipate Gurley having a strong outing as he did when playing the Panthers earlier this season.
On that day Todd Gurley managed to produce over 100 yards on the ground and the return of Julio Jones should mean the Panthers can't focus on trying to clamp down on the Running Back.
Matt Ryan had a really poor game against the Panthers, but the return of Jones has been a huge boost for him and his Receiving corps and I do expect better here. Carolina are not really generating much of a pass rush that should mean Ryan has the time to make his plays down the field and this Panthers Secondary is also one that may not be able to really compete with the weapons the Falcons have in the passing game.
I expect a decent balance to come from Atlanta when they have the ball, but the same may not be said of Carolina who look to be continuing to miss Christian McCaffrey. Mike Davis is also banged up and the Falcons Defensive Line have shown an improvement when it comes to clamping down on Running Backs having held teams to 3.6 yards per carry on average across their last three games.
That is a real improvement on the overall season numbers and includes the first meeting with the Panthers, although Davis did have a strong showing in the first game with an ability to be a pass catching Back seeping out a problem for the Falcons to deal with. Even if Davis was fully healthy I think the Falcons might have been better prepared to face him, but I do think Carolina can still have success Offensively and that is mainly down to Teddy Bridgewater at Quarter Back.
Teddy Bridgewater has been well protected by his Offensive Line and should have a clean pocket for much of this contest and he has also been looking after the ball exactly how the Panthers had schemed it up when they signed up to replace Cam Newton and Kyle Allen. He has averaged 250 passing yards per game across his last three starts and Bridgewater has been more than a simple game manager with some big plays to the likes of Robby Anderson and DJ Moore catching the eye.
Both Receivers should feel they are comfortable going up against this Falcons Secondary which has been impacted by injuries all season and simply not covered as effectively as they would have liked. Even now the Falcons are allowing over 320 passing yards on average in their last three games and we all just saw Matthew Stafford make some big plays under pressure and time constraints to lead the Lions to a win over them.
We might have a Thursday Night Football game between two teams with losing records for the second week in a row, but this could be a fun watch between two NFC South rivals. Both teams have been better Offensively than Defensively and I do think we are going to see some big plays which should challenge the total points line.
However my lean is towards taking the points even if that means backing the Atlanta Falcons, a team who have found a way to lose games they have virtually locked up too many times already this season. I feel they have the better balance on the Offensive side of the ball, although I am disappointed to have missed out on the full Field Goal worth of points that were being offered earlier this week.
I don't think Teddy Bridgewater or the Carolina Panthers will have a bad game, but they are also off a disappointing defeat which would have sapped some of the confidence and this is likely going to come down to which of the teams have the ball last. Being motivated to avenge a defeat should propel Atlanta who were close to beating Carolina even when missing some key players earlier this month.
The Falcons are 5-1 against the spread in the last six of this Divisional rivalry and they have not been beaten twice by Carolina since the 2013 season. They are also 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the road underdog, while Carolina are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite.
I would have loved the full 3 points here, but the Falcons may still be appealing enough as the underdog. We might be below a key number here, but two of Atlanta's six losses this season have come by a point so taking the 2 points here is still appealing enough.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: They already hold a Divisional win over the Minnesota Vikings in the 2020 season and the Green Bay Packers can move to 6-1 with another victory over their rivals on Sunday in Week 8 of the season. The Packers are due out again on Thursday Night Football in the coming days, but Aaron Rodgers is not going to allow his team to keep the door open for this Divisional rival nor the Chicago Bears.
It is a big game coming up for the Packers who were embarrassed the last time the nation had their eyes on one of their games, but that doesn't mean they can overlook the Vikings. At 1-5 Minnesota might be a team involved in more trades having allowed Yannick Ngakoue to move to the Baltimore Ravens and with some of their Receivers being involved in trade rumours, but they will be motivated out of their Bye Week to at least earn revenge for the home blow out to these Packers in Week 1 of the season.
Things have changed markedly since as the Vikings went into that game as more than a Field Goal worth of points favourite, but they are a big underdog here. At least they will be boosted by the likely return of Dalvin Cook who missed the Week 6 blow out loss to the Atlanta Falcons and it is going to be important for Minnesota to establish the run in what looks to be testing conditions in Green Bay.
Kirk Cousins has been playing better since Justin Jefferson has emerged as a second option in the Receiving department, but it is going to be a cold and gusty day and you do have to wonder how the Quarter Back will face things having become used to indoor conditions. He did play outside for the Washington Football Team in his time in the nation's capital, but Cousins is going to need Dalvin Cook to step up and keep the team in third and manageable spots.
You would think it is going to be the game for Cook with Green Bay's Defensive Line struggling to stop the run, but the Packers have clamped down a little bit up front and the conditions could see them have better success than expected. I still think Kirk Cousins will make some big throws for his team to keep the chains moving and the Vikings can give themselves a chance in this one.
At the same time you do have to believe the Green Bay Packers are going to have a strong day Offensively even in the difficult conditions expected. Aaron Rodgers is playing at a very high level and in Davante Adams he has a player who can dominate the Minnesota Secondary, although how much Rodgers throws the ball is going to come down to the weather.
If things were clear I think Aaron Rodgers would have a huge game, but the Packers will likely be leaning on the run game more than usual. Aaron Jones looks set to miss out again, but Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon filled in admirably enough in the crushing win at the Houston Texans in Week 7.
However it is not going to be easy to run against the Minnesota Defensive Line which remains the strength of this unit and Green Bay have struggled for consistency on the ground.
In a game which is going to need the teams to control things on the ground I do think it gives the Minnesota Vikings a chance of keeping this one close. Despite the public being behind the home team against the 1-5 Vikings, the line has come down from the full 7 points and I tend to lean with the sharp players who are looking for Minnesota to be much stronger with Dalvin Cook back in the line up.
Minnesota are coming off a Bye Week and they have a solid 6-1 record against the spread in their last seven following a blow out loss at home, while they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog.
The Packers have some very strong trends too, but they have that big game against San Francisco on deck and in the conditions I am not sure they can score enough points to cover a number such as this one.
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The only chance I have felt the New York Jets would have in this game is that it would be scheduled before Kansas City had some big Conference or Divisional games ahead. Unfortunately for the Jets, who I have little sympathy for, that is not the case and I think the Chiefs are going to find a way to blow past a mammoth spread which would not be out of place in the College Football ranks.
It says a lot about the state of the Jets that they are being given as many points as they are in Week 8 of the 2020 NFL season and they are very much the favourites to finish with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the Draft. The fans will be clamouring for Trevor Lawrence which means the pressure is on Sam Darnold, the young Quarter Back who has not really been given the support from the Jets to succeed here.
He returned last week against the Buffalo Bills and the early positive drives quickly dried up, although the Jets did manage to lose their latest game by fewer than double digits which have become the norm. At 0-7 they do maintain control of the inside track to Lawrence and it is hard to see New York being competitive let alone winning here at Arrowhead.
Le'Veon Bell will be on the opposite sidelines this week so it is very difficult to see how the Jets can have Offensive success. Jamison Crowder looks set to miss another week and I don't think Frank Gore is going to be able to expose some of the issues Kansas City have had on the Defensive Line when it comes to stopping the run.
As long as it is close I do think New York will try and pound the veteran Gore at Kansas City, but Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco have struggled the moment the Jets have gotten behind the chains. That may be the case in Week 8 and the Offensive Line has simply not offered any of their Quarter Backs the time they have needed to make plays.
Without their top Receiving option it is very difficult to see the Jets moving the ball, but Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs shouldn't have any of those issues. While some expect Mahomes to throw the ball over this Jets Secondary, Andy Reid may be able to lean on his Running Backs to rip off some huge gains on the ground.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a huge weapon for the Chiefs in his rookie season, but the arrival of Le'Veon Bell increases the threat in the backfield. Bell in particular will be looking to punish Adam Gase and the Jets for his short time with the team and I think the Chiefs will have considerable success on the ground and with the two Running Backs coming out of the backfield too.
Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes and he can do pretty much whatever he feels like from the Quarter Back position. Holes in the Jets Secondary should leave them open for some big plays down the field and I think Kansas City are going to be able to score points every time they have the ball which will give them a chance to cover a very big spread.
The Quarter Back should not feel much pressure from the Jets pass rush so it should be a decent day for Patrick Mahomes, although I do think the Chiefs will be looking to help Le'Veon Bell earn some revenge over his former team. Giving the ball to Bell through the second half would not be surprising with a decent lead the Chiefs should have by then and may be the only way Patrick Mahomes is not throwing for 500 yards in this game!
The size of this spread has to be a concern in the NFL, but I think the Jets may struggle to move the ball and that should see Kansas City earn some short fields. His new team-mates may want to help Le'Veon Bell show what he is capable of and I think that is how they will pull away for a big win.
Los Angeles Rams @ Miami Dolphins Pick: If the season was suddenly ended before this weekend the 3-3 Miami Dolphins would only just miss out on a PlayOff berth. They beat the New York Jets comfortably in Week 6 before heading into the Bye Week and that is perhaps what makes it even more surprising that a decision was made to remove Ryan Fitzpatrick at Quarter Back and begin the Tua Tagovailoa era in South Florida.
Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the first to tell you that his position as Miami Quarter Back was never going to be a long-term one, but the veteran was also very upset with the decision to make the change now. The entire team respects Fitzpatrick and he has been playing at a high level to help the Dolphins to their current record which has them trailing the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, but ahead of long-time dominant New England.
It is going to be interesting to see how the rest of the team respond to the move at Quarter Back as Miami come out of their Bye Week and host the 5-2 Los Angeles Rams. The bounce back win for the Rams on Monday Night Football means they remain very competitive in the tough NFC West where every team has won at least four games and holds a winning record, but the Los Angeles Rams have to remain focused on themselves.
No one will call this spot a good one having had the short week to prepare against a well rested opponent and playing in the early slot on the East Coast is never easy for any West Coast team.
Sean McVay won't be interested in excuses though and his team are playing well enough Offensively to feel they can challenge the Dolphins and at least force their rookie Quarter Back into a shoot out. The Rams have seen Jared Goff open the 2020 season in much better form at Quarter Back than he displayed through much of 2019, but McVay will also want to limit the amount of times he challenges the strength of the Miami Defensive unit which remains in the Secondary.
Los Angeles are going into a Bye Week so they can leave it all on the line here and should be able to move the ball effectively on the ground. While the Rams very much leave the Running Back duties to the hot hand, they should be comfortable running behind this Offensive Line which has paved the way for some big gains on the ground. They are facing a Miami Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run effectively this season and I think that is going to be important to keep Jared Goff in front of the chains.
The Head Coach has shown he is a very good Offensive mind too and so I can see Sean McVay helping his Quarter Back with some quick passes drawn up to get the Rams key players out into space. Putting some screens and quick slants in play should open things up down the field, but Los Angeles are going to be happy enough to methodically move the ball and then rely on their own Defensive unit to step up and make some big plays for them.
Tua Tagovailoa is making his first start in the NFL and a rookie Quarter Back facing this Los Angeles Rams Defense is not ideal. It isn't as if Tagovailoa can lean on the running game to at least put himself in a strong position to try and make plays and the inconsistent Miami rushing Offense is unlikely to find much joy from this Rams Defensive Line.
A strong pass rush is also going to put the rookie Quarter Back under pressure and this Los Angeles Secondary have played well to contain teams. It does have to be said that they have not exactly played the very best teams in the NFL with four of their seven games coming against the awful NFC East, but that should not take away from what the Rams have done Defensively and I am not sure Tua Tagovailoa is going to have the experience to get the better of them too.
At least Ryan Fitzpatrick could rely on some of the chemistry with this Receivers to try and keep the chains moving, but it would be a surprise if Tagovailoa has been able to do the same in the last two weeks and I like Los Angeles to win this one on the road.
Los Angeles are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen road games and they have played well on the East Coast under Sean McVay. I can't dismiss the Miami Dolphins because they are well Coached and that has resulted in some strong trends of late, but the rookie going in at Quarter Back may make the one mistake which swings this game in favour of the Los Angeles Rams who can produce a good looking win here.
MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons + 2 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
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