The College Football season has been a strange one for everyone who is a fan or a participant in the sport and that has not helped the Picks in the early going.
I am hoping for a big bounce back in Week 8 after a miserable Week 7, and it has been a different story completely to the NFL Picks.
You can't do much about a garbage time kick return Touchdown or a team missing the cover by a point, but that is the way the luck has gone in the NCAAF Picks so far this season and I am looking for an improvement as soon as possible.
Hopefully things begin to turn around on Saturday as the Big Ten begins their Conference play in what has been a stop-start season for many.
Auburn Tigers @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: The College Football season has been a strange one and I do think the teams are not being helped by leaping straight into Conference play rather than having an opportunity to schedule games that may have given them a chance to ease their way into the season. I think that is especially the case in the SEC as those schools tend to play overmatched opponents early and can iron out the kinks on both sides of the ball before heading into what is always tough Conference battles.
Both of these teams will be disappointed with the way their opening games have gone and being in the same Division as the Alabama Crimson Tide likely means any National Title bid and even a Conference title bid is already beyond both. The Auburn Tigers are 2-2 within the Conference and the Mississippi Rebels are 1-3, while both are looking to bounce back from disappointing Week 7 efforts as they were upset as favourites.
Turnovers have been a real problem for the Tigers and the Rebels and the two Head Coaches are more than aware that it is very difficult to win Football games if you don't take care of the ball. You have to believe the team that does that the best in this Week 8 game is going to come away with the victory, and I am leaning towards the Auburn Tigers to be able to do that.
Like many people all around the world, Mississippi have also had to deal with the Covid-19 virus and there is suggestions that there has been something of an outbreak through their team. They missed a couple of players last week, but Lane Kiffin has been speaking about things being 'worse' although at the moment there hasn't been any suggestion that this game is going to be postponed.
For now they will try and concentrate on matters on the field and that means not putting Quarter Back Matt Corral in a position where he is forced to throw the ball. Corral has to have lost some confidence with the Interceptions he has been throwing and so Mississippi will be looking to establish the run and at least ease the pressure on the signal caller.
However, trying to do that against the Auburn Defensive Line is going to be a big challenge for the Rebels Offensive Line. All season the Tigers have been pretty stout up front, and that should see them able to clamp down on Jerrion Ealy who was leaned on heavily in the defeat to the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Ealy will be looking to have the Offense lean on him again, but I do think the Tigers can at least put the Rebels in a few third and long spots and then try and rattle Matt Corral. Unfortunately for Auburn they have not really been able to find a consistent pass rush and that should mean Corral has time to make plays against a Secondary which has given up just under 240 passing yards per game on average in their last three.
The Tigers have not found much in the way of the Secondary making plays in recent games, but Matt Corral has made mistakes and it is up to Auburn to try and punish him.
Like Mississippi, Auburn will look to the Offensive Line to pave the way for their success in Week 8 as they look to open holes for Tank Bigsby at Running Back. Auburn have had plenty of success doing that for Bigsby and anyone else who looks to pound the rock and it would be a huge surprise if the Tigers are not only able to establish the run, but also rip off some big gains on the ground against a Rebels Defensive Line giving up 6 yards per carry and allowing almost 300 yards per game on the ground on average in their recent games.
Tank Bigsby having a big game would ease the pressure on Bo Nix at Quarter Back who was guilty of some big turnovers in the defeat to the South Carolina Gamecocks last week. Bo Nix was called out on the sidelines last week by Seth Williams, the top Receiver, but he should be able to have a bounce back performance with the Quarter Back likely to be in third and manageable spots at worse.
He is also facing a Secondary which is giving up some big yardage and one that is not turning the ball over through the air as they would have liked. The Quarter Back will also benefit from a strong running game that should ease the Mississippi pass rush and help the Offensive Line which has been much stronger when it comes to run blocking than pass protection.
I do like the Auburn Tigers here having taken them off my shortlist last week- that proved to be the right decision, but in this one I think the Tigers have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball to take on and beat the Mississippi Rebels who may have one or two more issues running the ball than Auburn do.
Auburn have tended to bounce back from losses of late as they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games in that spot. They are facing a Mississippi team who are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten games as the home underdog and Auburn are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games here.
The line has just moved above the key number 3 which is a blow, but I still like Auburn to win a high-scoring game with a late play or two on the Defensive side of the ball helping them move back above 0.500 within the Conference.
Kansas Jayhawks @ Kansas State Wildcats Pick: There are only three unbeaten teams left in the Big 12 Conference this season and you would have been hard pressed to find anyone who could name all three before a ball was kicked or thrown in 2020. The Oklahoma State Cowboys and the Iowa State Cyclones are two of those unbeaten teams and will be facing each other in Week 8, while the third is the Kansas State Wildcats who are big favourites to move to 4-0 in Conference play.
It will still baffle some of the players that the Wildcats are not unbeaten in 2020 though after losing to the Arkansas State Red Wolves and that defeat may be the one that keeps Kansas State out of the PlayOffs unless they can run the table. In this College Football season you just never know, but the Wildcats have to make sure they are not looking past rivals Kansas.
The Kansas Jayhawks were beaten for the fourth time in Week 7 which has dropped them to 0-3 within the Big 12 and 0-4 overall. Les Miles was a surprising appointment made by Kansas having previously led the LSU Tigers to a National Championship, but he has yet to really stamp his authority on the programme, although Miles is well aware of how much this game is going to mean to all of the fans and his players.
Moving the ball has been a challenge for the Jayhawks all season and things have gotten much tougher with the news that Pooka Williams has decided he will not be available for the rest of the season. The Running Back has decided his place needs to be alongside his family as his mother is unwell so no one associated with the Jayhawks will begrudge him his decision, although on the field Williams is going to be a huge miss.
The Running Back has had over 2000 rushing yards combined in the last two seasons and many will have had Williams down as the biggest threat in the Kansas Offense. He might have had success against this Kansas State Defensive Line, but it looks a much tougher test for the Jayhawks having struggled to really open the kind of holes up front they would have wanted to.
In fact the whole Offensive unit has struggled anyway this season and I do think they will find it tough to find any real consistency in this one. Last week they had some nice early drives, but Kansas ran out of steam and the feeling is that something similar could happen in Week 7 despite the motivation of having a rivalry game in front of them.
The Jayhawks might be without their best Running Back, but Deuce Vaughan is ready to go for the Kansas State Wildcats who have shown improvement running the ball behind this Offensive Line. They should improve further when facing this Kansas Defensive Line that has given up 5.1 yards per carry over their last three games and Vaughan can put his team in a positive position on the field.
Will Howard is the young Quarter Back for the Wildcats and him and Vaughan could be a tandem for the next couple of years to lead the team to success. Howard has also played well enough considering his lack of experience at this level, and the key has been looking after the ball and making sure his Defensive team-mates are not left in difficult spots.
As long as he can remain as clean as he has, the Wildcats should have success finding balance Offensively which will make it very difficult for the Jayhawks to stop them. There isn't even much of a pass rush that the Jayhawks can call upon and I do think Kansas State are set up to put a big win on the board in this one.
Kansas State are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine games coming out of a Bye Week. The Wildcats have not been the best as a home favourite, but they have a 8-3 record against the spread in the last eleven runnings of this rivalry game and I do think they are going to have enough to cover a big mark in Week 8.
Virginia Tech Hokies @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: One loss is unlikely going to be costly in the ACC this season as far as a Conference Championship goes, although it seems less likely to be good enough to be picked in the final four when it comes to the National Championship. The latter is something none of the teams should be worrying about in October though and instead this is all about running the table for the Virginia Tech Hokies.
They dropped a game to the North Carolina Tar Heels so that is one tie-breaker that may be an issue when it comes to final standings, but the Hokies have recovered to crush the Boston College Eagles. They are now big favourites to beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons who are 1-2 in the ACC this season, but who have won two in a row overall to give themselves some momentum.
A defeat to the Clemson Tigers won't have dented anyone's confidence that is associated with Wake Forest and the uptick in performances since that loss will also help them feel better about themselves. It certainly suggests they will be anything but a roll over for any opponent in the ACC and the Demon Deacons will be looking to give the Hokies all they can handle.
The Demon Deacons have been very effective at establishing the run an then dominating on the ground and this feels like a game that may not go any differently. They have racked up over 200 rushing yards per game on average over their last three games and Wake Forest have produced those at a healthy 4.6 yards per carry clip.
Now they face a Virginia Tech Defensive Line which has given up over 200 rushing yards per game on average across their last three outings at an eye-watering 6 yards per carry. With that in mind it will be a surprise if Wake Forest are not able to have success and keep Sam Hartman in manageable third downs when they need their Quarter Back.
Sam Hartman has to be wary about the Virginia Tech pass rush against his vulnerable Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection, but running the ball well should just make those rushers second guess when to go and when to stick. That should help the Quarter Back who is facing a Secondary which has given up some big numbers in recent games and I think it will mean Wake Forest are able to move the chains when they have the ball.
Wake Forest will be aware that this Hokies Defensive unit is one that prides itself on forcing turnovers, but they should also be confident in an Offense which has largely looked after the ball.
While I do think the Demon Deacons will have success, it is almost impossible to imagine the Virginia Tech Hokies being shut down. Ever since bringing in Hendon Hooker in as Quarter Back the whole Offensive unit seems to have gotten a lift as the dual-threat player has made a number of big time plays from behind Center.
That is going to pose a problem for the Demon Deacons whose Defensive Line have simply not been comfortable at stopping teams on the ground and I can see the Hokies ripping off some big gains on the ground. Hendon Hooker is perhaps more comfortable making the plays with his legs at the moment and he can follow up his last two performances with another good looking one against a Wake Forest team giving up over 200 yards per game on the ground in their last three games.
A minimal pass rush is unlikely to rattle Hooker, although the Wake Forest Secondary have not really been tested as teams have been able to run efficiently against them. We may not see Hooker throw the ball too much either with the Offensive Line much happier run blocking and it should mean a game that runs through the four Quarters.
The Hokies are the right favourites, but they were beaten the last time they played at Wake Forest and the home team will also be looking for revenge having been beaten heavily by Virginia Tech on the road last season.
Virginia Tech have not covered in their last four games on the road and I do think this is a game in which the Demon Deacons can score enough points to stay within the number. I do think the Hokies may end up winning, but getting as many as double digit worth of points looks a big number, although my disclaimer is that sometimes late Covid issues are perhaps more evident to some than others.
MY PICKS: Auburn Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Kentucky Wildcats - 3.5 Ponts @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Minnesota Golden Gophers + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 7: 0-7, - 7 Units (7 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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