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Thursday 8 October 2020

French Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2020 (October 9th)

The Women's Final has been set and I would suggest you would have been something of a fortune teller to predict that Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin would be the two competing for the final Grand Slam title of the 2020 season.

It should be a good Final all the same, but before that the two Men's Semi Finals have to be played with both scheduled for Friday. The Women had a tough Thursday to deal with as the wind picked up, but it could be raining in Paris on Friday and that will mean the conditions are perhaps a lot easier to deal with.

We will all see it play out over the course of several hours beginning at 2pm local time.


Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: It was comfortably the best match I have seen at the French Open in 2020 and one of the best Grand Slam matches you are likely to see anywhere for some time. At the end of over five hours of tennis, it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who earned his spot in a Grand Slam Semi Final for the first time as he overcame US Open Champion Dominic Thiem in five gruelling sets in tough conditions.

That is the positive part of the match- ultimately winning and remaining in the draw in Paris... The bad news is that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has not got a lot of time to recover from the long Quarter Final before he has to take on Rafael Nadal who is looking to win a thirteenth title in Paris on Sunday.

At least the Argentinian played in the first set of Quarter Final matches which means he was scheduled on court on Tuesday and that has one extra day to get himself back up to physical shape to take on the King of Clay. That is what Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will be telling himself and he did at least get through the early Rounds at the French Open without investing too much energy and that gives him a chance to be as ready as you can be for this Semi Final.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will also have the mental boost of finally ending his losing run to Rafael Nadal when he beat him on the clay courts of Rome last month, a match he dominated and deserved to win in the manner he did. Prior to that victory, Schwartzman had lost nine in a row to Rafael Nadal which included four losses on the clay courts, although he has never made it easy for a player that has won twelve French Open titles.

They met here a couple of years ago and it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who took the first set before being ground down and beaten in four sets. The feeling is that the early stages of this match are going to be critical for the underdog as he looks to give himself a mental boost by winning a third straight set on the red dirt against Nadal and at least helping forget some of the fatigue and emotional tiredness that is going to be at play.

Ultimately I do think over the best of five set format it is going to be very difficult for Schwartzman to keep digging in and battling past a player who should be feeling fresh and strong. The conditions are not ideal for Rafael Nadal as he has pointed out on a number of occasions both before the tournament began and during the last fortnight here, but he is likely going to believe the longer this match goes the more and more it favours him to break through and pull away from his opponent.

Even in these conditions, Rafael Nadal has been serving very well and it is going to be important to try and keep Diego Sebastian Schwartzman down in this one. It has also sparked Nadal's return game which remains as good as anyone's on the clay courts The Schwartzman return is a key part of his game, but I do think at some point he is going to just feel all of the tennis he had to play in the Quarter Final and that should only help Rafael Nadal all the more.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has found a lot of success on the return of serve against Nadal in the previous clay court matches and that includes creating more break point chances in his four set loss here in Paris. I do think that he will be able to keep things competitive for a while, but eventually tiredness could be an additional factor against Schwartzman as well as the quality of opponent in front of him and that should see the Spaniard move through to yet another French Open Final with a good win behind him.


Novak Djokovic-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 37.5 games: The big question that most would love to have answered before this Semi Final is played is how is Novak Djokovic feeling- he looked in discomfort and was agitated for the first two sets of his eventual four set win over Pablo Carreno Busta in the Quarter Final, although the Spaniard suggested that any injury was being overplayed and that the World Number 1 is still strong.

If he was guaranteed to be at 100% you would have to say that Novak Djokovic is a great looking price to win this match. He is a very strong clay court player and the conditions are not helpful to opponents trying to hit through him, but anything less than 100% and I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas has the tennis to at least push the Serb all the way.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has long been tipped up as a future star of Men's Tennis having the charisma and the style of tennis which is going to appeal to fans around the world. This is not the first Semi Final he has reached at a Grand Slam having done the same at the Australian Open before and Stefanos Tsitsipas has had some big wins over the very best players on the Tour in the last couple of years.

That includes holding two wins over Novak Djokovic, although the Greek player has suffered three one-sided losses which have to be a concern for his supporters. The numbers in the head to head are not that impressive for Tsitsipas who has only broken Novak Djokovic five times in their five previous matches and allowed his opponent to hold 91% of the service games played.

However, the Stefanos Tsitsipas serve has proved to be a big weapon for him even against someone as strong at returning as Novak Djokovic. The youngster has held 83% of his service games against Djokovic and he has restricted the World Number 1 to 33% of return points won and that can't be ignored considering what kind of level of returning Novak Djokovic has produced throughout his career.

He has been playing really well at the French Open and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be feeling confident with that in mind. The serve has been hugely impressive and he has dropped it just twice in the last four matches since having to come from two sets down to beat Jaume Munar in the First Round.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has won at least 71% of service points played he has long been someone who is very comfortable on the surface. The serve has enabled Stefanos Tsitsipas to really take an aggressive approach to his return game and I do think he can challenge Novak Djokovic more than he has in the past if the poorer service numbers in the last two matches the Serb has played is an indication of an injury that is perhaps holding him back.

Even now it is difficult to imagine Novak Djokovic losing if able to compete for four plus hours at the level he can produce, but I do think think Tsitsipas is going to push him here. I would be disappointed if either player falls away in a straight sets defeat and that should give this match every opportunity to cover this total games mark.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 37.5 Total Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

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