At least the event has managed to complete the first two Rounds of the tournament and that should mean there is enough play time to keep the French Open on schedule, although I would not be surprised to see some delays through the day.
The Philippe-Chatrier court will be unaffected though as the roof is likely going to be employed throughout the day, although the conditions maybe another real challenge for the players who are much used to being at Roland Garros when the weather is naturally that much warmer.
It has been a bit of a disappointing tournament for the Tennis Picks and I do think the nature of the scheduling has meant I have not made adjustments to the selection methods as I should have done. Those methods have produced three winning seasons in a row and had a very good Australian Open, but the new Tour schedule has made things much more difficult.
I wish I could simply say it is bad luck, but I have identified some very poor selections and I am looking for much better in the final days of the French Open.
Dominic Thiem - 7.5 games v Casper Ruud: There is no doubt that Casper Ruud is a very competent clay court player and I would not be overly concerned by the fact that he had to come through a five set match in the Second Round. It wasn't a long match against Tommy Paul, but Casper Ruud should not have been pushed that far by an opponent who is nowhere near the level that he is going to have to deal with on Friday.
Playing Dominic Thiem on the clay courts has long been a very difficult challenge as the Austrian looks to extend his run to five consecutive years reaching the French Open Semi Final. In fact Dominic Thiem has reached the Final in both 2018 and 2019 and now he is a Grand Slam Champion having picked up the title in New York City and I do think that is going to give Thiem plenty of confidence.
His first two Rounds have underlined how good Thiem is feeling having won all six sets competed and largely dominated the matches. The serve has been a big weapon for him, while Thiem has admitted he probably enjoys the conditions more than most having grown up and played tennis in similar conditions back home.
The colder weather and the heavier courts and balls means Dominic Thiem can really take his place behind the baseline on the return of serve and force players to try and hit through his strong defences. Like Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem can set his stall out to frustrate opponents and then push forward and use his own aggression to dominate rallies and break down the player on the other side of the net.
It won't be easy to do that against Casper Ruud considering how well he has played on the clay courts. However I do think it is hard to ignore the fact that Ruud has a losing record against top 20 players on the clay courts and his numbers do take quite a serious dip in those matches, while his two losses in preparation events have come against Novak Djokovic and Andrey Rublev and both were in fairly comfortable wins for those two players.
Last year it was Roger Federer who did for Casper Ruud at the French Open and that was another fairly routine win for another top ten Ranked opponent. Casper Ruud has been serving well on the clay courts over the last couple of seasons, but those numbers also decline significantly when facing the better players on the Tour and that is where I think Dominic Thiem will break his game down and eventually pull away for a big win.
In the coming years Casper Ruud should improve and get closer to the better players on the clay courts, but that is unlikely to occur in this Third Round match.
Caroline Garcia + 4.5 games v Elise Mertens: There have been some big names that the home fans have placed their hopes with when it comes to a French player winning at Roland Garros, but it does feel like there is not the same sense of expectation on them with the limited crowds allowed to attend this event.
It is very possibly going to make the French players produce without the usual pressures on their shoulders, although it is a long shot for a home favourite to take the time.
The best player positioned to perhaps do that might be Caroline Garcia who has long failed to fulfil the kind of potential so many had for her. She has played well in her first two matches here which is a far cry from the levels she has produced on the clay heading into the French Open and Garcia has both handled being a favourite and an underdog on her way through to the Third Round.
Unsurprisingly she is the underdog in this match against Elise Mertens who has produced some consistent results on all surfaces over the last two seasons. She is inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, although the Belgian needs to show she can beat some of the better players on the Tour on a regular basis if she is going to be considered a genuine Grand Slam winner in the making.
Elise Mertens had a very solid 7-3 record on the clay courts prior to the French Open beginning and she has been a pretty good winner in both matches played here. However it should be noted that while she does produce the wins, Mertens is not an overwhelming player on this surface and that should mean there are chances for Caroline Garcia to keep this close if not quite able to go on and complete the upset.
The Frenchwoman has won both previous matches against Elise Mertens although both were played on the hard courts. As well as Mertens has played on the clay, she isn't returning as well as she would like and I do think Caroline Garcia is able to serve well enough to give herself a real chance here.
She should also have the opportunities to break serve and I think everything is pointing to a pretty close match here and that makes this amount of games being given to the underdog look incredibly high. Elise Mertens could try and frustrate with her defensive skills on what is a slow clay court, but Caroline Garcia has handled herself well in this tournament and she can trouble the Belgian who has not always been at her best against the best.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 7.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anna Schmiedlova @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pedro Martinez - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannick Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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