The French Open continues on Wednesday and we have the Semi Final line up completed by the end of the day.
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: This is the second time these two players are meeting at a Grand Slam since the Tennis Tour was suspended and everyone who tunes in will be hoping they actually see a different kind of drama in Paris than was witnessed in New York City last month.
Everyone who loves tennis will know what happened to Novak Djokovic at the US Open, but Pablo Carreno Busta will always be the answer to the question of 'who was the World Number 1 playing when he was Defaulted at the US Open?'
That match lasted just eleven games before Djokovic inexplicably hit a ball towards the back of the court which ended up hitting a line judge and costing him the chance to remain unbeaten in 2020. The World Number 1 has yet to beaten officially though and that will give him confidence as he looks for a second French Open title having won the Rome Masters event last month to erase what would have been painful memories for Djokovic from the US Open.
He has looked imperious at the French Open having moved through four Rounds without dropping a set and largely being unchallenged. Novak Djokovic was pushed the most in the Fourth Round, but he would have been a much more comfortable winner if he had taken some of the chances that he created and I think Djokovic will feel he is playing well enough to reach the Final at the very least.
The serve has been working well enough in tough conditions in Paris, but it is the return where Novak Djokovic really puts opponents under pressure. He has won at least 48% of return points in every match played in Paris and created at least eleven break points in three of the four matches completed.
Now he takes on Pablo Carreno Busta who is comfortable on the clay courts, but who perhaps surprisingly has not produced the strongest numbers on the surface. Last month he was crushed by Rafael Nadal in Rome which would have dented some of the confidence that was earned by reaching the US Open Semi Final, but the run here shows that the Spaniard is ready to knuckle down and compete.
However, Pablo Carreno Busta will know he has to find a new level to really give Novak Djokovic something to think about here. Despite only dropping a single set in the tournament so far, Carreno Busta has not had things his own way in the last couple of Rounds and those have come against players not of the same quality as the World Number 1 in his current form.
I fully expect the Pablo Carreno Busta serve to be tested to the fullest in this match and I am not sure he is going to be getting on top of too many rallies in this one. Ultimately he will have to take risks to make this a competitive match and I think that will work into Djokovic's favour who has the superior defence and is likely to have the better of the games and rallies the longer the match goes.
Novak Djokovic has never been beaten by Pablo Carreno Busta as far as a completed match goes and it is the World Number 1 who has won both matches played on the clay courts. In those clay court matches Novak Djokovic has dominated the return of serve and even in these slower conditions I think he will have too much quality on that side of his game which allows him to pull away from this opponent.
I don't imagine he will be as wasteful as he was in the Fourth Round and that should give Novak Djokovic a comfortable path through to another Semi Final in Paris. The Serb has won 53% of the points played on the Pablo Carreno Busta serve on the clay courts and he has largely managed his own serve that should mean he can produce a big performance and cover what looks a big number.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: This looks to be the match of the day as two young players look to earn their spot in the Semi Final of a Grand Slam tournament. That is a position that Stefanos Tsitsipas has experienced before, although Andrey Rublev has twice been a Quarter Finalist at this level himself.
Both players are very familiar with each other and there is a huge respect between them as you could hear in the press conferences ahead of this meeting in the Quarter Final.
Stefanos Tsitsipas was very complimentary about the Andrey Rublev game and you have to believe that is partly down to the fact that he is 3-0 down in the head to head. One of those losses has come in a Grand Slam at the US Open and one of those was ahead of the French Open when these two met in the Hamburg Final on clay and ended with the Russian coming through in a tight three set match.
It was a surprise win for Rublev on the day and one that actually surprised him too as he broke Tsitsipas when he was serving for the match and again in the final service game of the match to turn things in his favour. Andrey Rublev has the stronger numbers in their previous matches, but they have been close and I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas has his best chance to beat this opponent on this surface.
I won't ignore the fact that Rublev looked to be in good form prior to the tournament and was arguably playing at a higher level than Tsitsipas in the limited clay court matches they had. That coupled with the head to head has to be a concern for the latter, but Stefanos Tsitsipas did earn more break points than Rublev when they met in Hamburg and there might have been one or two signs of fatigue from the Russian in the last Round.
Andrey Rublev had to dig deep to beat Marton Fucsovics and that was a match that lasted almost four hours, while it was a match in which his opponent had more break points than Rublev created himself. It was only some poor serving late in the sets which cost Fucsovics the chance of earning the outright upset and it is much harder to envision Tsitsipas doing that when you see his serving numbers from the tournament.
The Greek star has won at least 71% of his service points in each of his last three matches and Stefanos Tsitsipas has spent considerably less time on the court. He has only faced six break points across those matches and, while I think Andrey Rublev is going to have more success than that with his aggressive return game, I do think think that serve could be critical in helping Tsitsipas get through some tough moments.
Serving strongly has allowed Tsitsipas to have some freedom in his return games and I do think he is going to get the better of Andrey Rublev for the first time. My feeling is that Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be the fresher of the two players and break down the Rublev game over three or four sets to move through to the Semi Final in Paris for the first time.
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Laura Siegemund: A funny bounce of the ball can change the entire momentum of a tennis match, but it was a double bounce that was missed by the Umpire which could have changed the entire complexion of this tournament for Laura Siegemund.
On set point, Kristina Mladenovic looked to have won the point but ultimately it was missed by all that should have seen it and Laura Siegemund was able to recover and take the set and then the match. That has sparked a strong run for the German through to the Quarter Final and Siegemund has shown confidence in her game having come through a couple of matches in three sets too.
This is a player who has long been at her best on the clay court and her numbers back that up, although there was little form from Laura Siegemund ahead of the French Open. The German has been returning well throughout the tournament, but it is the serve which has really been impressing in the last two Rounds and Laura Siegemund has been getting on top of the break points that are being created.
All of that deserves a lot of respect, but now Siegemund is going to be up against Petra Kvitova who is a much better clay court player than you may think for someone with her style of tennis. My immediate impression would be that Kvitova would be a dominant player on the faster surfaces, and her two wins at Wimbledon back that up, but she is getting plenty of time to line up her power strokes on the surface and her movement has looked steady enough.
In the two seasons prior to this one, Petra Kvitova has produced a very impressive 23-5 record on the clay courts while her numbers have shown she is able to play first strike tennis behind her big serve. The Czech player has also been very positive when it comes to the return of serve and I do think she is going to put Laura Siegemund under more pressure than her previous opponents have been able to do.
That serve has been key for Petra Kvitova in the last couple of years, but she has not been at her best behind serve in this tournament. In the Second Round and Third Round she struggled with her serve, but Kvitova has been very confident returning the ball and won at least 46% of return points in each of her last three matches.
Petra Kvitova did serve well in her Fourth Round win and she only dropped it once in the victory. Throughout this tournament the left hander has broken serve at least three times in each match played and she should be able to put Laura Siegemund under some pressure in this one.
I can't ignore the performances Siegemund had in the warm up events going into the French Open and she was just 3-8 in her last eleven matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay courts before this tournament began. Laura Siegemund has struggled with her serve in those matches and I do think someone like Petra Kvitova is going to get on top of any second serves she sees in this one.
She is a former Semi Finalist here in Paris and I am going to look for Petra Kvitova to produce a strong performance to earn her spot in that Round again at this end of this match.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Danielle Collins-Sofia Kenin Over 21.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
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