Injuries are piling up through the top European Leagues and managers are in an unenviable position of having to find results at the same time as maintaining their duty of care to their players by making sure they are well rested.
It hasn't just made things difficult for the real managers, but Fantasy Football managers have to also be feeling the pain. That is the case for my time and I am having my worst start to the Official FPL season as I have had in many a year with nothing seemingly going right and the strange, Twilight Zone entering results meaning some unfamiliar or unexpected names lead the way in terms of the points being earned.
I'll moan more about that below.
Wolves v Crystal Palace Pick: Inconsistent results have been a feature of the early Premier League season and that is the case for both Wolves and Crystal Palace. One week they can look pretty good, but on another they can play terribly and that makes it hard to get a good read on either side.
The only element that has been clear for Wolves is that they are struggling to create a lot of chances and that has resulted in problems scoring goals. Raul Jimenez continues to lead the line effectively, but they have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 6 in all competitions since stunning Sheffield United with two early goals on the opening weekend of the season.
Back to back 1-0 wins would have been appreciated, but last week Wolves were punished for the lack of goals when conceding in the last few minutes in their 1-1 home draw with Newcastle United. At least Wolves can point to the fact they largely contained their visitors before Rui Patricio's error in setting up his wall for the free kick that was converted by Jacob Murphy.
It is difficult to know which Crystal Palace will turn up on Friday too- will it be the one that has been very effective going forward in their wins at Manchester United and Fulham or the one dominated at home by Brighton. Roy Hodgson's team have been better away from home where the onus is on their hosts to get forward which leaves space for a pacy attack, but Crystal Palace have also been hammered at Chelsea.
Defensive injuries are mounting up which makes it more difficult to trust Crystal Palace who have not had a clean sheet in their last 5 Premier League games and only once in their last 14 in the League. The Eagles have been scoring goals to make up for that, but it won't be easy to break down this Wolves team and games between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring since the latter returned to the top flight.
All four games have ended with fewer than three goals scored and the feeling is that this PPV game on Friday evening may go the same way. An early goal could really change the entire feel of the fixture, but I think both Nuno Espirito Santo and Roy Hodgson are managers who will look to restrict the spaces for the fast, attacking players and that could lead to another tight fixture involving Wolves.
Goals have been more frequent in Crystal Palace games, but I would be surprised if either team is producing a lot of chances in this one. Set pieces could be key, but both clubs are pretty adept at defending them too and I think this will be a game that doesn't feature more than two goals.
Backing at least one to avoid hitting the net looks the more appealing price now the money has come down on the Under 2.5 Goals option with the 1-1 scoreline the biggest danger.
Sheffield United v Manchester City Pick: The Premier League campaign has not started ideally for Manchester City, but they will be pleased that their early setbacks have not been as costly as they tended to be twelve months ago.
This time around none of the teams have shown the kind of consistency Liverpool displayed in the first five months of the 2019/20 season and that means Manchester City are 'only' 5 points behind the League leaders with a game in hand. That is not as big a gap as they may have expected having won 2 of their 5 Premier League games played, but Pep Guardiola will know they can't afford to keep dropping points.
Back to back 1-1 away draws at Leeds United and West Ham United have just raised some doubts about this Manchester City team, but they have shown in their win at Marseille in the Champions League that there is still plenty in the tank. Being without Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus does mean Manchester City lack a focal point, but they are still creating chances and I do think they are playing much better defensively than their recent results may suggest.
In their last 4 games out of the international break Manchester City have been particularly good at the back and I do think Sheffield United are going to have a tough time breaking them down. Set pieces will likely be their biggest threat, but The Blades have been lacking a cutting edge overall which makes it hard to believe they can pick up a positive result here.
Chris Wilder is more pleased with the recent performances from his team, but Sheffield United continue to struggle in the final third. They do play some decent football which creates chances, but lacking a clinical striker is not just an issue which has plagued them this season.
Even last season Sheffield United perhaps did not have the kind of end product they deserved for their play, but they were stronger defensively. That has not been the case in the 2020/21 season so far and Sheffield United have not had a clean sheet in their last 9 Premier League games.
They have scored just once in their last 4 home League games and even that was a Penalty and I do think Manchester City will be too strong for them. I am not sure whether the away side will be capable of blowing away Sheffield United on their own current form, but Manchester City should have enough to secure the points and I will back them to win a game in which fewer than five total goals are produced.
When Manchester City are at their best they capable of hammering any team at any ground, but this is a team who have looked to be a little more defensively sound in recent games. They have not scored more than a single goal in their last 2 away Premier League games, but Manchester City should have at least one more in them here which will likely be enough to secure the three points.
Burnley v Chelsea Pick: The difficulty for those clubs playing in European Football compared with those who are not is clear to see as Chelsea will continue to play every three days while Burnley are going to have had a week to prepare for the fixture.
Even then there are no excuses for the so called 'bigger' clubs who have deeper squads and ultimately have players who are used to being involved in big games all the time.
Chelsea's 0-4 win in Krasnodar was an impressive one for the players as they ended a 3 game run without a victory. Most pleasing for Frank Lampard has to be the third clean sheet in a row and I expect he is going to be preparing his team to be focused from set pieces as they look for a fourth in a row.
They are facing a Burnley team who played well on Monday Night Football in their narrow 0-1 home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. On another day the 1-0 scoreline may have been in favour of Burnley and Sean Dyche has to be encouraged by the level of performance.
Injuries continue to hurt Burnley, but they are not a team who are likely to roll over for Chelsea despite the poor home run against them. Burnley have lost 5 of their last 6 at Turf Moor against Chelsea and they have conceded four goals in each of the last 2 here against them.
It may be a concern that Chelsea managed that number in wins over Crystal Palace and Krasnodar earlier this month, but there is still a lack of consistency in the away side. That is no surprise with the number of new faces in the squad, although Chelsea have looked much more secure defensively ever since Edouard Mendy has taken over from Kepa.
He made some decent saves in Russia on Wednesday and was also a key performer in the goalless draw at Manchester United. It might give Chelsea the slight edge here, and I can't ignore the current struggles Burnley have been having at getting on the scoreboard recently.
The feeling is that one of these teams will end up failing to score and that is more likely to be Burnley than Chelsea. It could be a battle if Burnley replicate the levels they produced against Tottenham Hotspur though and the feeling is that it may be a fixture where one, or both, of the teams fail to find the back of the net.
Liverpool v West Ham United Pick: You can't help but be impressed with the recent performances of West Ham United and David Moyes is rebuilding his reputation following a poor time as manager of Manchester United.
It has been over six years since Moyes has left Old Trafford, but he has not had much consistent success anywhere. His two spells at West Ham United have been the best moments in the time since and the start made to the new season has just reminded people of the successes David Moyes had when managing Everton.
The fixture list could not have been much more awkward for Moyes and The Hammers to open the 2020/21 season, but the character of the squad has produced some huge results. Even in the defeat at the Emirates Stadium West Ham United were the better team and they have followed that with Premier League wins over Leicester City and Wolves and come from 3-0 down to earn a draw with Tottenham Hotspur before another draw against Manchester City.
Those are some top results and they will head up the M1/M6 with some confidence despite the poor recent outcomes from visits to Anfield. This time West Ham United have largely a fully fit squad to choose from and they are taking on a Liverpool team that has problems in picking a backline for this game through injury.
With the goals West Ham United are scoring they will give it a go here, although they will obviously be given a setback if Michail Antonio is not able to take part. Even then you have to believe West Ham United have to try and challenge a Liverpool backline which is decimated at the heart of the team.
That will be an issue for the home team to deal with, but Liverpool's front three are fresh and they are a team that create chances at Anfield. As positive as the eventual results have been, you can't just throwaway the 3-0 deficit West Ham United found themselves in at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this month before the late recovery.
Manchester City also had some decent chances against them and in Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah Liverpool do have players who won't be as wasteful in front of goal. Liverpool have also scored plenty of goals when hosting West Ham United in recent times and I do think the home team will look to protect the makeshift centre half pairing by getting on the front foot and pushing West Ham United backwards.
I would not be surprised if The Hammers played their part in this fixture, but Liverpool should be too good and I think that will lead to an important victory for them ahead of a big week. A late goal may be needed, but I expect Liverpool to find a way to break down West Ham United and win this by a comfortable looking margin when all is said and done.
Aston Villa v Southampton Pick: There won't have been many who would have suggested this would be a fixture between two of the current top seven in the Premier League and especially not at this stage of the season.
Both Aston Villa and Southampton have to be very pleased with the starts made to the campaign and this may be a special season if the rest of the Division continue to perform as inconsistently week to week as they have been.
The two clubs are both within touching distance of the leaders Everton and there should be a confidence about them.
Some of that may have been knocked from Aston Villa who were beaten 0-3 by Leeds United last time out and now they have to face a Southampton team who are unbeaten in 4 games. The Saints have won 3 of those including the victory over then unbeaten Everton last Sunday and they have looked pretty good defensively ever since the home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.
Those stronger performances have resulted in 3 clean sheets from their last 4 Premier League games and I do think Southampton won't be worried about this fixture. While they will recognise the quality Aston Villa have in the final third, Ralph Hasenhuttl has to believe his own attacking players can have success at Villa Park in what could be a decent watch on Sunday.
Southampton may have a slight mental edge having beaten Aston Villa twice last season, although both wins came before the break in play in March. Since then Aston Villa have been much better and you have to say the defeat to Leeds United is more of an exception than the normal level since June.
It looks like a really good game on paper and the potential to be one, but both clubs are actually playing pretty well defensively. It may mean there isn't much in this one and I do have to give Southampton a slight advantage as the underdog in what could be a close game.
I can't rule out the draw, but I do think Southampton have perhaps been playing slightly better than Aston Villa of late. The home team did hammer Liverpool here which has to be respected, but they perhaps didn't deserve to beat Sheffield United and I think that win over Liverpool makes them a touch over-rated.
Perhaps I will be wrong, but Southampton should be good enough to avoid defeat on their current levels of performance.
Newcastle United v Everton Pick: While Newcastle United earned what was largely an undeserved point, Everton were losing their unbeaten start to the Premier League season and both managers have to be looking for an improvement in fortunes.
Neither club has won either Premier League coming out of the international break and that does put a bit of pressure on them with two weeks to go until the November break in play.
In saying that, I do think both Newcastle United and Everton will be happy with the way things have been going and it is all about making the small adjustments to improve results. Out of the two teams the feeling is that Everton are still performing at a better level than Newcastle United despite the downturn in results.
The absence of Richarlison is a blow to the line up and losing both starting full backs for this game does mean the squad is being stretched. That has to be a concern for Everton fans as they look to maintain their spot at the top of the Premier League, but they will believe there is still enough quality to hurt a Newcastle United team who have not been at their best defensively in the last couple of weeks.
Newcastle United should have some successes of their own with the pace they have in forward areas through Allan Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson, but I think the edge has to be with the visitors. Everton have a very good record in recent visits to St James' Park too and there might still be enough quality in the team even without Lucas Digne, Seamus Coleman and Richarlison to edge to the points here.
The first goal is absolutely huge in this one, but if Everton can get it I do think they can go on and secure the three points in a big game for the squad.
Manchester United v Arsenal Pick:
Tottenham Hotspur v Brighton Pick:
Fulham v West Brom Pick:
Leeds United v Leicester City Pick:
MY PICKS: Wolves-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score NO
Manchester City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals
Burnley-Chelsea Both Teams to Score NO
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Southampton + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur - 0.75 Asian Handicap
Fantasy Football GameWeek 7
I honestly can't quite get to grips with the Official FPL game this season.
If things could go wrong they probably have for my team and I can't seem to get out of the way of those players who lose value which makes it very difficult to turn things around too. It would help if those I have selected could convert some of their XG and XA marks into actual points and overall I am sure you can sense my feelings of frustration.
It does irritate me that others are seemingly benefiting from players who have picked up points almost undeservedly, but at this stage I just feel it is a long season and I am hoping things begin to settle in what has been a strange Premier League season to this point.
I am not entirely convinced they will which means having to make adjustments in the thinking, and that may also mean having to take more Hits than I am used to.
Press Conferences are going to be important for the next two months to try and get a feeling of where players are being rested and it does mean the squad in general has to be stronger than I have sometimes had in the past.
I was hoping to have a transfer roll over into GW8, but I think there is a feeling that either Sergio Reguilon or Ben Chilwell could be rested. That would mean Adam Webster coming in, but I think I can upgrade the defence this week and I am going to want to roll over the transfer through the international break.
For the main part I am happy with the squad and I am not going to rush out and make changes to my team knowing I deserve more points than I have earned to this point. At some stage the luck has to change and I have already made the mistake of dropping Timo Werner before he returned in the kind of manner I would have wanted.
Marcus Rashford is another who has thrived just after I have taken him out of the squad and I want to avoid those rash decisions this week.
Some players are in the last chance saloon- I can't carry Riyad Mahrez for his value and lack of returns, but he has a decent looking fixture this Saturday assuming he is given the start. I do have an idea of some teams and players I would like to target in the weeks ahead, but for now I am looking for this squad to find a way to produce the returns.
I will post my team on Twitter at the deadline on Friday evening.
No comments:
Post a Comment