The NFL season continues through into Week 7 and this looks like one week where there have been no fallout from the Covid-19 crisis that continues to blight our lives.
The Las Vegas Raiders game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been moved out of the Sunday Night Football slot just in case after the former lost some of their Offensive Linemen to a positive test, but that game is set to go ahead at the time of writing albeit in the late afternoon slot instead.
After another positive week for the Picks, I am looking to keep the momentum going through Week 7.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: A 4-2 start to the season may not feel as such for the Cleveland Browns after being blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6. Both defeats have come in heavy losses at their Divisional rivals Pittsburgh and the Baltimore Ravens and Odell Beckham Jr made it clear that he is fed up of seeing his team lose to the better teams they have been facing.
Out of the four wins you would have to say that only the Indianapolis Colts could be considered a decent team that the Cleveland Browns have beaten. One of those wins came against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns will be looking to compete the double over them and remain in a strong position to at least push for a PlayOff spot at the end of the regular season.
The Bengals are 1-4-1 on the season as they try and break in rookie Quarter Back Joe Burrow, but they will be very disappointed that they blew a 21-0 lead in their loss at the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6. Frustrations have also spread to some of their veteran players on both sides of the ball who don't believe they are being used in the correct way and may be looking for a way out of Cincinnati sooner rather than later.
Joe Burrow hasn't played badly for the Bengals, but there have been rookie mistakes and it may be a tough game for him against a motivated Cleveland Browns looking to bounce back from their own loss last time out. He will have to make do without Joe Mixon who has been ruled out, and it is very difficult to imagine Giovani Bernard having a big game on the ground without their star Running Back in the backfield.
The Cleveland Defensive Line has been stout for much of the season and they should be able to clamp down on Bernard, although the veteran could be a threat as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield.
While running the ball may be difficult, Joe Burrow may still have a decent outing against this Browns Secondary which is banged up and allowing Quarter Backs to have a strong day throwing the ball. Ben Roethlisberger didn't do a lot last week as the Defensive unit stepped up for Pittsburgh, but even then the Browns have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game through the air on average in their last three games.
With AJ Green in the line up I do think Joe Burrow will have a decent game, although the Offensive Line remains a bit of a mess. The pass protection has not really stood up and this Cleveland front is the strength of the Defensive unit and should be able to at least rattle the Quarter Back if he is left in third and long spots.
Injuries are not only affecting the teams on the this side of the ball, but the Cleveland Browns have to continue to make do without Nick Chubb. I have no doubt that Kareem Hunt is a very good player to fill the gap, but their bigger issue may be whether Baker Mayfield has recovered from the injury that was clearly limiting him in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Baker Mayfield has been in full practice on Thursday and Friday so I do think he will be ready to go, but I think it is important that Hunt establishes the run. The Browns were not able to do that last week, but I think he will have a lot more success against this Bengals Defensive Line which has given up some big yards on the ground and that should mean Mayfield has more chance of having a bounce back performance.
The way Cleveland have largely been able to run the ball means they don't ask Baker Mayfield to do too much, but I can imagine the Quarter Back wants to show he is over whatever was bothering him in Week 6. He is facing a Cincinnati Secondary which has struggled to cover Receivers and Mayfield has both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr as well as Austin Hooper to make some big plays for him through the air.
Cincinnati might be able to make some plays in the backfield if Cleveland are in third and long spots, but I do think that is not going to happen often in this one with Kareem Hunt likely to have a big game for the Browns.
As long as Baker Mayfield is much closer to full health as his practice designation would suggest I do like the Browns to bounce back here. They have dealt with the teams they are supposed to this season and have already beaten Cincinnati with the score looking closer than it was thanks to a late Bengals Touchdown.
Cleveland have won four of the last five against the Cincinnati Bengals, although I am a little concerned about backing a team who are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as the road favourite. However the Bengals are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the home underdog and while this spread has not crossed over a key number I do like the Browns to bounce back in Week 7.
Green Bay Packers @ Houston Texans Pick: It was supposed to be a game in which the Green Bay Packers showed by they are the favourites to win the NFC this season, but being a road favourite at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did not work out as expected for them. It started well enough with the unbeaten Packers moving into an early 10-0 lead, but back to back Aaron Rodgers Interceptions, one a Pick Six, saw the Buccaneers move ahead and never look back in a blow out win.
There will have been some questions asked of one another in the locker room after the defeat to the Buccaneers and Aaron Rodgers also suggested the team may not have been as focused as they should have been. Coming off a blow out loss it is hard to imagine Green Bay laying another egg even in a non-Conference game and despite a Divisional Game next on the docket.
Ultimately good teams and good Quarter Backs don't really want to offer back to back defeats at any point and I do think the Packers also know full well they are in a battle in the NFC North with the Chicago Bears so every game could matter. With the Covid-19 issues that remain existent throughout the United States games may yet be cancelled in the regular season so every game should feel that much more important towards the final Seedings for the PlayOffs.
Green Bay are coming off an embarrassing loss on National TV, but the Houston Texans won't be feeling any better having dropped to 1-5 after a late lead was blown against Divisional rivals the Tennessee Titans. Bill O'Brien may be gone and boosted the players, but Houston have been left with some serious holes thanks to the moves made by the former Head Coach/General Manager and it doesn't seem likely that this Texans team will be able to bounce back from a slow start as they have in recent seasons.
The Texans do have Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back and he is trying his best to carry this team on his back, but Offensively there is too much inconsistency and the decision to trade away DeAndre Hopkins looks more baffling in each passing week. Watson has had three strong weeks for the Houston Texans, but he is going to need a couple of his Receivers to step up in this one and make plays if they are going to find some consistent throws in this game.
Like many teams who face the Packers, the Houston Texans have to look to establish the run and David Johnson may have one or two nice moments in this one. For all of their strengths, there has to be a worry for the Packers that their Defensive Line have yet to find a way to clamp down on the run and keeping Deshaun Watson in third and short spots will at least give the Quarter Back a chance.
Like I said, I do think Watson will have some success, but he may also have to use his legs to get away from the pass rush pressure. Interceptions have been an issue for Watson, but he should at least give Houston a couple of nice drives in this one. However, I am not sure that will be enough if Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers get back to the form they were showing prior to the Bye Week.
The Packers have a future Hall of Fame Quarter Back, but in this one they may be looking to show a little better on the ground behind their Offensive Line. There are one or two injuries on the unit that may have affected their recent performances on the ground and Aaron Jones is Questionable for this one, but even then the Packers may be facing the right opponent to get back on track.
Julian Williams and AJ Dillon are able to fill in for Jones if he is absent and the Houston Texans have allowed teams to run the ball at 5.7 yards per carry on average across their last three games. Last week they were trampled by Derrick Henry and selling out to stop Aaron Rodgers and the passing game should open up some big lanes on the ground.
Aaron Rodgers will be looking to follow up other Quarter Backs who have exposed the Houston Secondary, although he has to be a little wary about playing behind a banged up Offensive Line. The Texans do get after the Quarter Back and they will likely get into the backfield here, but Rodgers is a smart player and can use his feet to give him time from third and manageable spots to hit his Receivers down the field.
I do expect a big performance from Rodgers and he should be able to give the Green Bay Packers the edge in what is likely going to be a shoot out.
Houston are a decent team, but there are issues in the squad on both sides of the ball which they have not managed to overcome. Deshaun Watson won't give up in any game, but his team are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the home underdog.
They have not covered in their last six as the underdog overall and Green Bay have covered in their last five games following a straight up loss. Playing indoors should only benefit Aaron Rodgers even more and I like the Packers who played poorly in Week 6.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Pick: Only one team remains winless in the 2020 NFL season and the New York Jets will be taking aim at Divisional rivals the Buffalo Bills in a bid to end that unwanted record. It is a big ask of the Jets who have looked like a mess on both sides of the ball and the fans are already hoping the saviour of the franchise is going to be selected with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Trevor Lawrence is the player the fans would love to see suiting up in the green and white jersey next season, but current incumbent starting Quarter Back Sam Darnold is not concerning himself with that talk. It hasn't been that long since Darnold was a First Round selection by the Jets and at 23 years old he is bound to get other offers in the NFL, although things can go downhill quickly when a player is not performing.
At the moment we don't really know if Sam Darnold is performing or not as he has been out injured, but he was back in limited practice this week and may be ready to take over from Joe Flacco. However the young Quarter Back could be missing the likes of Jamison Crowder, who is the main Receiving weapon the Jets have, while Darnold will be playing for the first time without Le'Veon Bell who was released and subsequently signed with the Kansas City Chiefs.
It just makes moving the ball feel like a very difficult task for Sam Darnold even if the Buffalo Bills Defense has not played up to the level of their reputation. Jamison Crowder is a big loss and it is very difficult to lean on Frank Gore at Running Back and hope he is going to set the Jets up.
The Buffalo pass rush may also be able to show some signs of life against this New York Offensive Line which has not been very good in pass protection. If Sam Darnold is limited he may not be able to scramble away from the pressure and that should mean drives are stalled and the worst team in the NFL is going to find it very hard to avoid another double digit defeat.
It sounds much more simple than it is because the Bills are coming off a heavy Monday Night Football loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and they do have to face the long-time kings of the AFC East in Week 8. There is a chance this is a very bad spot for Buffalo, but Josh Allen should be inspired to show he is better than his last performance and he should be able to have a comfortable day throwing into this Secondary.
Josh Allen is going to be tasked with moving the ball as the Bills continue to struggle to establish the run with both Devin Singletary and Zach Moss disappointing so far. The Quarter Back can make a few runs with his legs that can keep the Jets guessing, but the New York strength is on the Defensive Line and so it will be up to Allen to show better accuracy and connect with his Receivers down the field.
A limited pass rush should mean Josh Allen is dealing with a clean pocket and Stefon Diggs and John Brown should be able to win on the outside and make some big plays for their Quarter Back. One issue is that there are a number of Buffalo Tight Ends who have joined the Covid-19 list, although this game is not under threat.
This is a big number, but I do like Buffalo's chances of covering even in the poor spot I mentioned before. The New York Jets have not only been losing games, but they have been getting blown out and I do think the players have perhaps had enough of Adam Gase as Head Coach, while the injuries through the Offense makes it hard to know how the Jets are going to score enough points to make this one competitive.
Buffalo do tend to beat the teams they are expected to as they are now 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite. The Jets are 8-21-1 against the spread in their last thirty games coming in off a straight up loss of 14 or more points and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games at home.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Football Team Pick: The NFC (L)East looks to be completely open this season and one of these teams is going to be hosting a PlayOff Game in January, although it is unlikely to be a Division from which a Wild Card team is produced.
None of the four teams have a winning record and injuries have hurt all four of them, but the Philadelphia Eagles have taken over the top spot in the Division after beating the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football. That win pushes the Eagles above the 2-4 Dallas Cowboys and the 1-5 Washington Football Team who meet in a pivotal game on Sunday where the winner may feel there is some momentum behind them.
Both are coming off tough losses in Week 6- the Cowboys were blown out by the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football, while Washington went for a two point conversion at the end of their game against the New York Giants that ultimately failed and dropped them to a one point defeat.
Kyle Allen has been restored to the starting role at Quarter Back for Washington, but he made a couple of big mistakes in Week 6 that cost his team the chance to beat the Giants. Those mistakes hurt all the more when you think of what Allen is supposed to bring to the team, but Ron Rivera has maintained he will be the starter at the moment with Dwayne Haskins and Alex Smith behind him.
It would be very helpful to the entire Offense if the home team could establish the run, but the Offensive Line has struggled. They have not found any consistency up front, but the Dallas Defensive Line has been more productive when it comes to the pass rush than run stuffing and so the Football Team may actually have a chance to earn some yards on the ground.
The Quarter Back would appreciate being in third and manageable spots, but more importantly would be able to get the ball out of his hands quickly when looking for short yardage markers. The longer Kyle Allen has to hold the ball the more likely his pass protection breaks down the Cowboys can make some big plays up front.
If he does have time, Kyle Allen can hit some of his Receivers against a weak looking Secondary, but much is going to depend on how much time he is given and how effective any rushing Offense is on Sunday.
Running the ball is going to be all important for the Dallas Cowboys too as Ezekiel Elliot looks to recover from some bad moments scattered throughout the 2020 season. Too many fumbles have been costly for the Cowboys and two more on Monday Night Football saw Dallas fall into a big hole that they are not going to get out of in their current state.
Losing Dak Prescott is a huge blow, but the Offensive Line has been decimated too and that makes it very difficult to believe Andy Dalton is going to have a lot of success here despite the skill players in the Receiving corps. I do think Elliot and Tony Pollard will have a chance to establish the run, but it is also difficult to guess how a second string Offensive Line is going to cope with the Washington Football Team's Defensive Line which remains the strength of this side of the ball.
The Football Team will certainly feel they can harass Dalton into having to let go of the ball quickly and that should give them a chance to slow down what looks a powerful Offensive unit on paper. I expect Andy Dalton to be better in his second full start, but he was also very close to some big turnovers in Week 6 and this Washington team have been able to turn the ball over.
That could be key for giving Washington enough Offensive drives to earn the victory and I do think they are capable of doing that behind their strong pass rush. That should see Washington make some big plays and potentially win the turnover battle that can prove to be the difference in so many games in the NFL.
Dallas have won seven of the last eight runnings of this Divisional rivalry and that can't be dismissed easily.
Both teams have some poor trends of late, but I think the Offensive Line issues are going to be a problem for Dallas and that should see Washington edge to the win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: The rich have gotten richer in the NFL after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided to sign Antonio Brown to add to the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as serious Receiving weapons for Tom Brady. They already showed that they may be the team to beat in the NFC with their crushing win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 6 and that came behind a strong Defensive effort rather than Brady and the Offense taking over.
As each week passes you do feel that Brady and the rest of the Buccaneers are understanding each other more and more and I do think that will see Tampa Bay look to peak at the right time. At 4-2 Tampa Bay top the NFC South and they will feel they can challenge for the top Seed in the NFC even though the Seattle Seahawks are still an unbeaten team in the Conference.
To do that the Buccaneers can't afford to drop any game so even these non-Conference outings are very important for the team. Offensively they will feel they can have success against the Las Vegas Raiders who are off a Bye Week having beaten the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5 in a huge upset on the road.
That is a very strong win for Jon Gruden and his team and should have the entire team believing this is a potentially big season for them. The Raiders are definitely on the right path to success and they will certainly feel that they can earn a Wild Card spot in the AFC at the very least this season.
This is another 'prove it' kind of game for the Raiders who are in the midst of a very tough part of their schedule. The challenge for Las Vegas is taking on a Tampa Bay Defensive unit which just hammered Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers and the Raiders are going to have to do that being short-handed on the Offensive Line.
We are still not entirely sure how many of the Offensive Line will be missing, but there are going to be a number of them on the sidelines and that is not good news for Derek Carr. Usually he could at least lean on Josh Jacobs to put the team in third and manageable spots, but Tampa Bay have been incredibly stout when it comes to stopping the run so the pressure looks to be shifted to the Quarter Back.
Derek Carr has impressed in 2020, but if he is playing behind a banged up Offensive Line he is going to be put under pressure by the Buccaneers pass rush which dominated the Packers in Week 6. That will slow down the passing game of the Raiders and the Buccaneers Secondary have played well too which suggests this could be a very difficult day for the Las Vegas Raiders.
That will also mean there is pressure on the Raiders Defensive unit to step up their own play, but I don't think Tampa Bay will have too many problems moving the chains. The threat of Tom Brady means Ronald Jones has been able to establish the run and he is facing a Raiders Defensive Line which has given up 4.8 yards per carry across their last three games.
Keeping that balance will make Tampa Bay very effective Offensively and Tom Brady has been well protected by the Offensive Line which means he can attack a Secondary giving up over 250 yards per game through the air. I expect Brady to have a strong day and his Receiving corps to show they should still be given priority targets even when Antonio Brown arrives next month.
It is a big line, but I do like the Buccaneers to win on the road.
The Raiders have performed well as the home underdog, but they are 5-12 against the spread in their last seventeen off a Bye Week and I do have to have major concerns with the problems on the Offensive Line. It should mean the Buccaneers Defensive unit can have another big impact on the game like they did in Week 6 and those plays should give Tampa Bay the opportunity to pull away for a good looking win on the road.
MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 3 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 10 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Washington Football Team - 1 Point @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
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