I am looking to have a fuller thread in Week 7 of the NFL, but it has been a busy time over the last week.
After some very strong results to open the season, I have something to build upon going forward.
Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Matt Patricia has to be feeling the heat underneath his seat as Head Coach of the Detroit Lions and he can't be encouraged by the improvements in the NFC North which has seen both the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears make fast starts to the season. Even in an expanded NFL PlayOffs, the Detroit Lions being 1-3 through their Bye Week is a massive concern with losses to both of those Divisional rivals already in the books.
The Head Coach can't afford too many more and with changes begun to be made in other NFL Head Coaching spots, the pressure is on Patricia to get things turned around this week. The Lions are on the road, which is never an easy place to play, but they have had time to prepare and they are facing a Jacksonville Jaguars team who are 1-4 on the season and coming off a loss to a previously winless Houston Texans team.
To make matters all the tougher for the Jaguars they are severely banged up on both sides of the ball which is going to make it very difficult to win games. You can lose a skill player, maybe two, but you can't lost multiple of your best players and expect to be competitive in the NFL.
Scheduling changes can occur at any time and it is something teams have to be prepared for on short notice in 2020, but assuming all goes well the Jaguars have a Bye Week coming up in which they will be hoping to get some key players back. Unfortunately it may mean in Week 6 that they are not willing to risk anyone who is a little banged up and it may leave the Jaguars short.
In usual circumstances you might actually like what Gardner Minshew would have been able to do against the Detroit Secondary which has struggled with injury and massive holes all season. However it looks like the Jaguars are going to be down their top Receivers on Sunday and that will make it difficult for Minshew to move the chains with any consistency with his arm alone.
He should be well supported by the run game though and that could be the key to the entire game as Jacksonville look to control the clock and wear down the Lions. The Detroit Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run all season and James Robinson could have a big game as long as the Jaguars have not fallen behind multiple scores and need their Quarter Back to rip off some big yards through the air to get them back into the game.
As long as it is close Robinson should be a big factor, but at some point you would expect the Lions to dare Minshew to beat them though the air with his third, fourth and fifth string Receivers. Even a porous Secondary like the one Detroit have should feel they can make some big plays against the Receivers they are facing in Week 6 and that should mean they are willing to take more chances to keep Robinson in check.
Offensively Detroit should be healthy and feeling really good about their chances of doing whatever they feel like in this one. The Jaguars are missing key players right across their Defensive unit and they have been seen to be vulnerable to both the run and the pass so you would hope the Lions have been well prepared to take advantage of that.
Injuries on the Defensive Line have made it very difficult for the Jaguars to stop the run and especially as they are also without Myles Jack at Linebacker. We have yet to see Detroit find consistency with their own ground game, but you would think the Bye Week has given them a chance to at least right things with that part of their Offense, while Jacksonville have to respect the Quarter Back who is opposing them which means they can't sell out to stop the run.
Matthew Stafford might be coming down towards the end of his career and there may even be rumours that he might call it a day sooner rather than later, but he is still very effective from behind Center. His Offensive Line has not always been offering the best protection, but Stafford will have time in the pocket if Detroit are able to establish the run and there are holes in the Jacksonville Secondary which have been exposed by teams in recent weeks.
He should have his full complement of Receivers ready to go in this one and if CJ Henderson is missing for Jacksonville the Secondary just doesn't have the talent to be expected to slow down Stafford. I expect Detroit to move the chains at will and effectively take the game away from their hosts while doubling their overall wins and road wins for the 2020 season.
I hate backing the Lions as a road favourite because they have simply not performed in this spot, but I think this is the best chance for them to do so. I just don't believe Jacksonville can keep up in what is likely to be something of a shoot out and so will back the road team to come away with the victory and the cover.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: At the start of the season I really felt the AFC North could provide three PlayOff teams over the coming months and none of the top three have really disappointed. The Cleveland Browns have bounced back from a Week 1 defeat to win four in a row, while the Pittsburgh Steelers are one of four teams in the NFL that have yet to taste defeat in 2020.
These Divisional rivals meet in a big Week 6 game and it is arguably more important for Cleveland who are 1-1 within the AFC North while the Steelers have yet to play a Divisional Game. With that in mind it is perhaps a disappointment for the Browns that they look to be hurting at just the wrong time with a number of players on the Offensive side of the ball banged up ahead of this game.
Baker Mayfield has made it clear that he is going to play regardless of having to deal with the pain after taking a big hit last week. The Browns never looked doubtful about being without their Quarter Back, but Mayfield can't be at 100% and that makes the potential absences of the likes of Odell Beckham Jr and Jarvis Landry that much more difficult to deal with.
Even if the Receivers are good to go, you can't imagine either being completely healthy and now they have to face a very strong Pittsburgh Secondary which is physical at the line of scrimmage and capable of running with their opposite numbers.
It may be down to the passing game to get the chains moving because the Browns are continuing without Nick Chubb and their rebuilt Offensive Line will be challenged to try and get the better of the Pittsburgh Steel Curtain. Last week we did see the Philadelphia Eagles find some big gaps on the ground, so Cleveland may feel they can have some success, but there was not consistent running room on the ground. Kareem Hunt is a quality Running Back and more than a backup to Chubb, but his biggest impact may come in the short passing game rather than being able to rip off huge runs throughout this game.
The ability to stop the run has allowed Pittsburgh to pin back their ears and unleash a fierce pass rush, but in usual circumstances I would believe this new look Cleveland Offensive Line would be able to keep the pocket clean. However I do think Baker Mayfield may not be able to fully scramble when the pressure comes his way and so the best bet for the Browns may be to throw the ball into screens and quick slants to ease any pass rush the Steelers throw at them.
Baker Mayfield has been effective enough as the starting Quarter Back, but his numbers have not been spectacular as Cleveland have been able to have a lot of success on the ground. At less than 100% I do think he will have a tough time, especially as Mayfield is likely going to be asked to do more than usual, and the Steelers have shown they have one of the best Defenses in the NFL despite the points given up to non-Conference opponents Philadelphia in Week 5.
Last season it was the Defensive unit which sparked the Steelers, but they have opened 4-0 for the first time since the late 1970's thanks to the return of Ben Roethlisberger. There was a considerable drop off to the second and third string Quarter Back twelve months ago, but Big Ben has returned and he looks to be enjoying his Football as he appreciates he has reached the back end of his career.
Like Cleveland, Pittsburgh have enjoyed the success they have had on the ground to push the team forward, although Roethlisberger has shown he is capable of carrying the team Offensively if so required. James Connor might not be able to have the biggest game running the ball traditionally, but Pittsburgh showed last week they are able to just find a crease or two on the ground to make some big plays and I think they will have success even against a much-vaunted Cleveland Defensive Line.
Also like his opposite number, Ben Roethlisberger is going to able to exploit screens and quick passes in place of a running game to keep the Cleveland Defensive unit off-balance. There are some quality Receivers in the Pittsburgh camp that will feel they can take those short passes to the house and last week it was the turn of Chase Claypool and he may be a key weapon again if the Steelers are not able to get some of their other Receivers back on the field.
Injuries are an issue for Pittsburgh too, but I do think Roethlisberger is playing well enough to find a way to get the ball into the hands of some of the quick players he has on the outside.
I do like the Steelers even if they can sometimes be hard to trust as a favourite.
They have a strong home record against Cleveland and the potential banged up nature of Baker Mayfield may be tough to overcome for the Browns. Cleveland have not been as strong on the road as they have at home and they have not covered in their last four games against AFC North Divisional rivals.
At the same time Pittsburgh are 7-3 against the spread when playing Divisional rivals and I do think this is a team that can make the plays on the Defensive side of the ball which helps them overcome this mark.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: There have already been two Head Coaching changes in the NFL and it is perhaps no surprise that one of those came in Atlanta where the Falcons have started poorly again. Dan Quinn was surprisingly given a little more time to try and turn things around after a strong end to 2019 and the players are clearly going to be disappointed they could not help their former Head Coach, but ultimately Quinn had to part ways with the Falcons who are 0-5 for the season.
In a very tough NFC South, the Falcons already look like they are too far away to really have a chance to earn a Wild Card spot. Atlanta are also going to be feeling the pressure of the players playing for their jobs now the Head Coach and General Manager have been let go and no one can feel safe when owner Arthur Blank won't be even get behind long-time Quarter Back Matt Ryan.
Injuries have been a real problem for the Falcons who are going to take on another underwhelming team in 2020 when they visit the Minnesota Vikings. Mike Zimmer has to be another Head Coach who may be fearing what the future holds for him and you have to imagine the seat underneath him will be heating up through the Bye Week if the Vikings were to lose this one.
Minnesota are 1-4 for the season and that leaves them some way behind the Bears and the Packers within the Division. However, Mike Zimmer has to be most upset by the fact that his team have lost by a single point to both the Tennessee Titans and Seattle Seahawks who are a combined 9-0 for the season and things would have looked markedly different if the Vikings had won those games with the opportunities they missed.
This week there will be no excuses for Minnesota even with Dalvin Cook set to miss out and that is largely because they are facing a Falcons team that have been decimated Defensively. Alexander Mattison should ensure that Minnesota are not missing Cook as much as they perhaps should and he can have a big outing against the Falcons Defensive Line which has allowed 4.4 yards per carry in recent losses.
The Vikings will be a team who will want to establish the run first and foremost, but Kirk Cousins is also throwing the ball well enough to believe he can become the latest Quarter Back to take advantage of all of the injuries in the Atlanta Secondary. Being placed in third and manageable spots will just mean things open up for the passing game and Cousins will be chomping at the bit to go at a Secondary allowing over 300 passing yards on average over their last three games.
Kirk Cousins should also be under little to no pressure when he does drop back to throw considering how little pass rush Atlanta have generated and it feels like the home team will be able to do pretty much all they would like to in this one.
However, Atlanta may feel there is a chance for them to have a strong Offensive day especially if they can get some key players back, most notably Julio Jones on this side of the ball. Matt Ryan is still more than a capable Quarter Back and this Vikings team have dropped off from the kind of Defensive levels they have shown in recent seasons under Mike Zimmer.
Todd Gurley has shown some signs of having something left in the tank after moving to the Falcons in the off-season and he has helped the Falcons pick up some solid yards on the ground. He should be able to have success against the banged up Minnesota Defensive Line which has not been able to slow teams down as much as they would have liked on the ground and it will be important for the Falcons to at least give Matt Ryan manageable Down and distance to work with.
That is especially the case if down a Receiver or two and especially behind an Offensive Line which has not been at its best in pass protection. If Matt Ryan is left in third and long spots, you would have to think the Vikings pass rush is going to put the veteran under pressure and get to him while forcing mistakes or Sacks.
Despite being behind, Matt Ryan's recent numbers have not been that impressive but there is an opportunity for him in this game. The Vikings Secondary has not played up to the level of recent years, but much depends on how Ryan is feeling after seeing Dan Quinn removed as Head Coach and whether the Receivers are healthy enough to make plays for him.
You do have to wonder if the Falcons are feeling sorry for costing their likeable Head Coach his job after the start made and if that is the case they could find it hard to motivate themselves. All of the suggestions are that the locker room were behind Dan Quinn and the 0-5 start could just see Atlanta struggle against a Minnesota team that could easily be 3-2 rather than 1-4.
Minnesota are 4-0-1 in their last five against the spread against the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons have been very good as a road underdog in recent games in that spot, but the Vikings have a very good record under Mike Zimmer when coming off a loss. It feels like this is going to be a close game, but one where the Vikings might just have the greater balance on the Offensive side of the ball as they find a way to get their second win of the season and stay in touch with those teams who are looking to earn a PlayOff spot later this year.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Pick: I will be the first to admit that I never saw a situation in which the Miami Dolphins would be such big favourites to win any NFL game in 2020 barring facing an opponent who had the majority of their players on the Covid-19 exemption list. However, a strong start to the season, relatively, coupled with the fact that the New York Jets are the visitors to South Florida makes the Dolphins the team to beat in Week 6.
They are 2-3 on the season having taken the San Francisco 49ers to the cleaners in Week 5 and the Miami Dolphins can put it all on the line in Week 6. Usually I would consider this a letdown spot after beating the NFC representatives in the Super Bowl a few months ago, but the changing schedule means the Dolphins are actually going into a Bye Week and that should keep the players focused on the momentum they have built up.
Things have been much tougher for the New York Jets who are 0-5 and surely going to part ways with Head Coach Adam Gase sooner rather than later. It is quite staggering that Gase has been allowed to stick around as long as he has and the Jets look a mess with injuries on both sides of the ball meaning they are not really being very competitive.
Facing a Divisional rival should always pump up a team, but Sam Darnold will be missing again in Week 6 which means former Super Bowl winning Quarter Back Joe Flacco gets the call again. Joe Flacco is someway away from the form that helped take the Baltimore Ravens to the Super Bowl title and he is very much a backup these days and he showed very little in the blowout home defeat to the Arizona Cardinals last time out.
To make matters more difficult for the Jets in general, Le'Veon Bell was released this week and quickly signed up by the Kansas City Chiefs. While it has to be said that Bell has been a disappointment in New York after signing a big contract, it has also got to be noted that he was never on the same page as Adam Gase who admitted he would not have signed him days after walking into the Head Coaching role here.
If Bell was around you might feel the Jets could establish the run in this one but instead it will be a heavy dose of the veteran Frank Gore. He may still have some success, but the Dolphins have to be keen on stuffing the run and forcing Joe Flacco to try and beat them through the air.
The New York Offensive Line has struggled when it comes to pass protection and the Miami Dolphins will feel they can get after a largely immobile Joe Flacco in this one as long as they can keep the Jets in obvious passing positions on the field. The Miami Secondary has played well, and they are definitely going to feel they can get the better of the Jets who have little of note outside of Jamison Crowder.
Moving the ball could be an issue for the Jets, but that should not be the same problem for the Miami Dolphins who have Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the way. The veteran Quarter Back is no fool and will understand he is a placeholder at the position for the Dolphins, but that means Fitzpatrick is going out to have fun and it has led to some strong performances already in the 2020 season that is keeping him in as the starter.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has needed to lead the Dolphins because the new look backfield that was signed in the off-season have simply not performed at the level Miami would have wanted. They have not been consistent running the ball whether they give it to Matt Breida, Jordan Howard or Myles Gaskin and I don't think they will get a lot of change from the Jets Defensive Line.
However, Fitzpatrick is someone capable of making plays with his legs when things break down in front of him and he has also been well protected by the Dolphins Offensive Line when it comes to the pass. A strong Offensive Line will also feel they can get the better of the Jets pass rush which has not really shown up this season and that should mean Fitzpatrick has time to hit some decent Receivers down the field that are going up against a porous New York Secondary.
I expect Ryan Fitzpatrick to have another strong showing and he can lead the Dolphins to a big win and a cover of a number they have simply not been used to dealing with in the last four years.
Miami will be looking for revenge for losing the last Divisional game against the Jets, but they did beat them by 8 points here last season. The Dolphins have won their last four home games against this AFC East rival, while the Jets have a pretty horrible 8-20-1 record against the spread in their last twenty-nine when coming off a straight up loss of at least 14 points.
They are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games and face a Miami team who are 3-1-1 against the spread the last five times they have been set as the home favourite. I like Miami to get the better of the Jets in this one too.
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: This is not just a potential NFC Championship Game at the end of the season, but any chance you have to see the likes of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers duelling one another can't be missed.
Of course the Quarter Backs don't actually play one another, but it will still be fascinating to see how two guaranteed Hall of Famers will approach this game.
Aaron Rodgers is coming in off a Bye Week so should be suitably prepared as he leads the 4-0 Green Bay Packers into battle in Florida. On the other side Tom Brady played on Thursday Night Football in Week 5 which means the Buccaneers have had some additional time to get ready for this one and his team will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing defeat to the Chicago Bears which has dropped Tampa Bay to 3-2 for the season.
Both teams will know how important this one is to give them a mental edge if they are to resume battle in January, while the Seeding at that time could also be affected by this one result between Conference rivals.
Tampa Bay have to be feeling better about their chances with their big name Receivers back having played Chicago without Chris Godwin and with both Mike Evans and Scotty Miller limited. Having the extra time to get ready for Week 6 should mean all three are in a much better place physically and Tom Brady has to have seen some of the holes the Green Bay Packers have in the Secondary with injuries affecting them.
It is also possible that the Buccaneers can establish the run to just ease the pass rush pressure Green Bay do generate. While Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have not exactly pulled up trees this season, the Packers are still a team who have not played the run that efficiently and it should mean Brady is allowed to operate from good Down and distance for much of the game. The Buccaneers won't be too concerned if they are keeping Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines for long drives either, although Bruce Arians will be demanding his team punch those drives with Touchdowns and not Field Goals.
That it what the Buccaneers will need if they are going to beat the Green Bay Packers who have been operating at a high level Offensively all season. Aaron Rodgers is clearly playing with a point to prove and hasn't missed a beat even with the likes of Allan Lazard and Davante Adams missing time.
At least this week Rodgers will get Adams back who was close to a return before the Bye Week- even a poor choice to criticise the doctors decision prior to the game against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4 won't have affected Adams' place in the starting line up. With the protection Rodgers has been given all season, he will feel he has the time to find the likes of Adams and Robert Tonyan down the field and the Quarter Back could have a big game.
The Buccaneers have been able to generate strong pass rush pressure which is going to have to be respected, but I am not sure they are going to be able to rattle Rodgers in his current state of mind. Instead I expect the Quarter Back to have a good day throwing the ball to keep the Green Bay Packers in with a chance of the road win.
It will be down to Rodgers because the Buccaneers have a Defensive Line which is capable of limiting the damage teams do on the ground. You can't ignore how well Green Bay have run the ball all season so they might crack open some lanes for Aaron Jones, but his biggest impact may be as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield.
At this time it is hard to oppose Green Bay who look to be playing with confidence and should be well rested ahead of this big Week 6 game, but Tom Brady rarely fails as a home underdog. The former Patriots star has his full complement of Receivers back which should be a big boost for Tampa Bay and the balance on the Offensive side of the ball could be key in determining the outcome of this one.
Tom Brady is also coming in off a loss and I saw an incredible number which says his teams are 14-1 against the spread when off a defeat and set as the underdog as they are here.
Green Bay have looked really good through the first four weeks, but I think they may come up a little short against a Tampa Bay team who might control the clock and make the big plays to win this one as the underdog.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Teams around these two have had Covid-19 issues which has meant the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills have had to move their own games. The scheduling has meant that this game between two of the top AFC teams has had to be moved from Thursday Night Football into an early Monday Night Football slot, but the players might be happy enough with a little extra preparation time to get through.
Both teams saw their unbeaten records disappear in Week 5 as the Kansas City Chiefs were upset as huge home favourites against Divisional rivals the Las Vegas Raiders. That dropped the Chiefs to 4-1 for the season, although they remain top of the AFC West, while the Buffalo Bills were embarrassed by the Tennessee Titans in a rare Tuesday Night Football slot to also fall to 4-1, although they look like they are playing in a much weaker AFC East.
None of that will matter to two teams who will believe this is a chance to give themselves a potential tie-breaker when it comes to Seeding later in the season when the PlayOffs come around. Three teams have already won five games in the AFC so the losing team will definitely feel they have lost a step and may also then be forced into a tougher than expected Divisional battle so there is plenty on the line for the Bills and the Chiefs who are looking to bounce back from those losses mentioned in Week 5.
Buffalo can't be any worse than they were in the defeat to the unbeaten Tennessee Titans and Sean McDermott will feel his team have something to prove. The wins over the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Rams can't be dismissed, but the Bills will also know many saw them blown out in a primetime spot and now they have another one against the Super Bowl Champions.
Josh Allen has largely been a huge success in the early weeks of 2020 and I don't think anyone should get off the Quarter Back's bandwagon based solely on the performance against the Titans, which was comfortably his worst one of the season. This season Allen has been much better with his arm and has not used his legs as much as he has in previous years with the Buffalo Bills and that has given his team a different look.
He will be challenged against the Super Bowl Champions who have actually played the pass pretty well, although the Defensive Line has work to do to improve their run Defense. The Chiefs might not feel the likes of Zach Moss and Devin Singletary are going to fully expose their issues on the ground though and it feels like the Buffalo strength is going against the Kansas City strength on the Defensive side of the ball.
There might be some pressure on Josh Allen if he is in obvious passing situations, but largely he has been well protected. That should mean the big Quarter Back is able to hook up with a returning John Brown as well as big off-season signing Stefon Diggs, although Allen will have to be careful with the ball against this Chiefs Secondary which has been able to create Interceptions.
I do think Josh Allen and the Bills will have success in this one when they drop back to throw, but they are going to need some Defensive help back if they are going to find a way to shut down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. This Offense has to be upset with some of their own levels in the defeat to the Raiders in Week 5 and I do think Mahomes is someone that is very difficult to slow two weeks in a row.
There have been a couple of games where he has not looked completely comfortable, but the slightly longer time to prepare than they would have expected for this game has to be a big edge for Andy Reid and his Quarter Back. Patrick Mahomes has also been given a shiny new weapon in Le'Veon Bel which should aid the Kansas City rushing attack that has largely struggled for consistency in 2020.
Bell and Clyde Helaire-Edwards should be able to have some success in this one on the ground against a Bills Defensive Line which has given up an average of 130 rushing yards per game in their last three games. That will especially be the case if the Bills decide they are going to stop Patrick Mahomes beating them through the air, although the Defensive unit have not played up to the levels advertised so far this season.
A lack of a pass rush and a Secondary which has allowed some very big yards through the air is not a good combination for the Buffalo Bills ahead of taking on Mahomes. They could have a key player back in Tre'Davious White to try and help against a Chiefs team that will be missing Sammy Watkins, but White can't be at 100% and I do think there are enough weapons for Patrick Mahomes to exploit which gives them a slight edge in the game.
It is a big number for a road team to cover here, but I do think the Chiefs are more likely to do that than the Buffalo Bills. Both teams are well coached and bounce back from losses, but Kansas City are a solid road favourite in recent times, while the Bills are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten as the home underdog.
This is a 'prove it' game for the Bills which will increase their motivation, but the Kansas City Chiefs won't be overlooking a potential PlayOff rival. I can see both Quarter Backs having strong showings, but ultimately I will be looking for Mahomes to out-duel Allen in a high-scoring game and that should be one where the Chiefs show why they are the Super Bowl Champions.
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: A devastating injury suffered by Dak Prescott means the Dallas Cowboys will be without their starting Quarter Back for the remainder of the 2020 season. They don't have a terrible backup option in Andy Dalton, but there is no doubt that Prescott can do things that the former Cincinnati Bengal will not and the Cowboys are a team who have needed to score a lot of points to even get to 2-3 for the season.
They remain the team to beat in the NFC East where no other team has won more than one game through the first six weeks of the season. A win on Monday Night Football will move Dallas back up to 0.500 for the season and they will then be able to go into back to back Divisional games with some confidence.
However the Cowboys are going to be the home underdog in this big game against the Arizona Cardinals who have been difficult to get a read on in 2020. The Cardinals are 3-2 for the season which means they are trailing the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, but this is a team who have beaten the likes of San Francisco, Washington and the New York Jets while losing to the Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions.
None of those five teams can really be considered amongst the best in the NFL with injuries meaning none have a winning record through to this point of the season. Only the Panthers are even at 0.500 and that makes it tough to judge the Arizona Cardinals and really know what to expect of them in the weeks and months ahead.
Arizona have to be feeling pretty good about what they can do Offensively in this game- while they have not had the most consistent output from Kenyan Drake at Running Back, Kyler Murray is able to scramble from the Quarter Back position and that has helped the Cardinals put up some strong numbers on the ground. They should have success moving the ball on the ground against the Dallas Cowboys, although the return of Leighton Vander Esch is massive for the Cowboys.
The Linebacker may help strengthen the Dallas Defensive Line when it comes to defending the run and at least forcing the Cardinals to beat them through the air. Ultimately the Cardinals should be able to at least stay in front of the chains in this game and that will mean Kyler Murray is able to make some big plays through the air against a Cowboys Secondary which has been awful to say the least.
In recent games Dallas have looked a little better at defending the pass, but that is partly down to teams protecting leads and using the run to keep the clock ticking. The other factor is some of the short fields Dallas have been giving up, and I do think Murray will have a strong showing as he hooks up with DeAndre Hopkins.
In saying that I am not expecting Dallas to have a massive drop off without Dak Prescott in this game, although it will be a factor later in the season against better teams. Andy Dalton may not have the same movement, but he is capable of handing the ball off to Ezekiel Elliot who should be able to break off some big runs for the Cowboys unless Arizona are selling out to force the backup Quarter Back to beat them.
That might be a problem for the Cardinals because they look like they are going to have trouble putting a pass rush together to at least give Dalton something to think about. The Cowboys have some quality Receivers that Dalton will be able to hit like he used to do with AJ Green in Cincinnati.
Andy Dalton will recognise that the Cardinals have a decent Secondary led by Patrick Peterson, but he will also believe his Receivers are able to win their one on one battles on the outside. The chemistry may not be the same as the one that Dak Prescott had, but I do think Andy Dalton can make enough plays to have the Dallas Cowboys in an appealing position as the home underdog.
Having key names back Defensively and playing without their starting Quarter Back for the first time should be a real motivational tool for the Cowboys. They could also catch the Arizona Cardinals looking ahead to a really big game with the Seattle Seahawks in Week 7 and a third road game in a row is not ideal in the current circumstances.
Dallas are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games as the home underdog and Arizona are not used to being favoured and dealing with that expectation to win games. I am going to look for the entire Dallas roster to rally together and 'want' this one more than the Cardinals who may feel it is going to be a comfortable day in the office now Dak Prescott is missing.
MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 1.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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