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NFL Week 11 Picks 2024 (Thursday 14th November-Monday 18th November)

It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Wednesday, 30 September 2020

NBA Finals Picks 2020- Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat (September 30-October 12)

NBA Finals 2020- Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat

I am going to have a few more words to say about this Series when Game 1 is in the books, but for now you can read my thoughts about the opening tip of the NBA Finals below.

Wednesday 30th September
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Pick: The NBA Finals are here and the easy storyline is LeBron James going up against the team he has won the majority of his NBA Championships with. After moving to the Western Conference there was always a chance that James would meet one of his former teams, but not many would have expected that this season.

The Miami Heat need to be given a lot of respect for not only coming through the Eastern Conference, but only dropping three games despite seeing off the Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. There is a real stubbornness about this team that never seems to know when they may be beaten and they have had some of their role players stepping up and becoming much more than that in the PlayOffs.

Jimmy Butler is without a doubt the leader of the team and he has finally made it to the NBA Finals having not quite done enough when with the Chicago Bulls, Minnesota Timberwolves and Philadelphia 76ers. He is helping some of his team-mates become better players, but it is the improvement of Bam Adebayo which has been instrumental for the Heat.

They will need Adebayo to have overcome a couple of physical issues that he was dealing with in the Eastern Conference Finals, especially as he may be the main player that is going up against Anthony Davis for the Lakers. The Heat will believe that in Butler, Adebayo and Goran Drajic they have the experience to help some of the other players make an impact in the biggest Series of their careers.

Miami have been shooting the ball well and they are going to need their three point shooters to have their rhythm very quickly if the underdog is going to make this a real Series. Those players have to take advantage of the spaces that the Lakers have left for teams on the outside and especially early in the NBA Finals before the adjustments are going to be made.

Ultimately the Lakers are favourites because they still have the best basketball player in the world in their rotation. LeBron James has been playing like that, but the Heat have enough Defenders to try and slow him down and at least force someone other than James and Davis to beat them in this Series.

The role players have not always been the most consistent, but the Lakers have gotten enough from them although there is a feeling that they do have the lack of consistency that can lead to some huge cold shooting spots. This time they are facing a Heat team who are arguably the best Defensive team the Lakers have seen in the PlayOffs and that brings its own challenges to the fore.

LeBron James would have been motivated anyway, but the chance to get one over on Pat Riley after the acrimonious end to their relationship in Miami is going to fuel him even more. There will be a healthy respect for Erik Spoelstra who is showing himself to be a really strong Head Coach, but you can understand why the Los Angeles Lakers are going to be favoured in the NBA Finals.

The Lakers have started slowly in Series in the PlayOffs though and I think that may give Miami the chance to at least push them all the way in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Heat do look to match up pretty well with the Lakers with their role and bench players making things a little closer even though Los Angeles Lakers will be hard to knock off.

It was the Lakers who won both regular season games, but those were played in the 2019 calendar year and Miami are much improved now. They have also coped with the bubble very well and I like the way the Heat are operating at the moment, although they do live or die by the three point shot.

Out of the two teams the Heat have dealt with the break between games better than the Lakers as far as the against the spread numbers are concerned. LeBron James' teams have also tended to come out slowly out of the game in the PlayOff Series he has played and I think that could be the case here in Game 1.


Friday 2nd October
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 2 PickThe First Quarter was going to plan for the Miami Heat and maybe they thought things were going to be too easy for them in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. After an early 13 point lead, the Heat were obliterated by the Los Angeles Lakers for around 25 minutes and found themselves 87-55 down in the middle of the Third Quarter.

It would be easier to imagine things are going to change if Miami had not seen Goran Drajic and Bam Adebayo both banged up to the point that their status is in question for Game 2. Neither player will want to be sitting on the sidelines, but it is hard to imagine either being effective and this looks a terrible match up for the Heat.

They simply were not able to stop the Lakers when the Western Conference Champions got on a roll and they were dominated on the boards. Finding the answers to that is not going to be easy, especially if Miami are short-handed for this one and the layers have responded by making the Lakers a much bigger favourite in Game 2 than they were in Game 1.

Jimmy Butler has urged his team-mates to play with more aggression and belief in this one having given up a big lead with some poor Defensive effort. That would have been easier without the injuries they are dealing with and I really do struggle to see Miami competing.

In saying that Game 2 should be the one moment where the Heat rally around one another and put in the best effort they can without two of their three best players. That is something the Los Angeles Lakers will be expecting having taken the best punch in Game 1 and turning things around in their favour.

Anthony Davis and LeBron James are the best players on the court and both were very strong in their opening win. It is hard to believe that the two are going to be fatigued or looking too far ahead and everything is pointing to the Lakers moving into a 2-0 lead.

The spread may be more interesting than most will believe as I imagine the Lakers are going to be a popular play. With a big effort put in by Miami, the Heat should be looking to keep tabs with the Lakers by putting in a huge Defensive stand to slow down the favourites.

Even if they can't the feeling is that Miami may struggle with the depth of their rotation and I think that is going to lead to a game that may narrowly miss the over again.

It came close to the point of covering in Game 1, but that was largely down to the Lakers and I do think the best chance Miami have is by slowing things down and winning the battle on the boards. As long as they are much more competitive than in Game 1, it may just slow the scoring enough in this one too.

MY PICKS: 30/09 Miami Heat + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
02/10 Los Angeles Lakers-Miami Heat Under 216.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2020 (September 30th)

The expected rain has not affected the French Open to the extent that it felt like it might when the tournament first begun and that does mean we are on schedule when we reach the middle of the week.

The First Round was played over three days and I actually think that benefited the tournament to make sure none of those are left over for Wednesday when the Second Round will begin. The bottom half of the Men's draw and the top half of the Women's draw are in action on Wednesday with matches scheduled through the day.

I do think there is a chance we will have a couple of delays during the day, but at least the next couple of days look a little drier. It is a bit overcast, but the weather is a little warmer and that should at least give the players a bit more of a chance to hit through courts that have been very difficult to do in the first three days.


We will get to see whether the slightly warmer conditions do make any difference to the way the courts have been playing, but the players have a match under their belt and so they have to take it how it comes now.

Yesterday was a much stronger day for the Tennis Picks, although in each of the last two days I have been frustrated by players having a chance to cover and missing game points or failing to serve things out when the chances have come up for them. Thankfully the Day 3 results have turned the tournament around, although there are plenty of days to come before we know which direction this Grand Slam is heading in for the Tennis Picks.

It does feel like a day with plenty of options like Tuesday did and I would be very happy to return the same record and keep the positive numbers ticking along.


Rafael Nadal - 10.5 games v Mackenzie McDonald: On first glance this looks a massive number and especially after Rafael Nadal had to dig deep to win the first two sets of his First Round match.

The long time dominant French Open Champion may not be appreciating the conditions as much as he would in May, but beating Nadal on the clay courts remains one of the big challenges on the ATP Tour. It is that much greater to try and knock him off in Paris at the French Open in the best of five set format and I do think this is a comfortable looking match for him.

Where Egor Gerasimov had the power to hit through Rafael Nadal at times and a big serve that could set up some easy points, I am not sure Mackenzie McDonald is going to benefit in the same way. The American had a solid First Round win over Qualifier Steven Diez, but this is a significant step up for him and the conditions are going to make it very difficult for McDonald throughout this one.

There is no doubting that Rafael Nadal would love to see the temperatures pick up in the days ahead, but it is going to be a match in which he should be firmly involved in every game played. Mackenzie McDonald doesn't have the best clay court pedigree, but his numbers are really below average when he has faced up against top 100 Ranked opponents and now he has to take on arguably the best clay courter of all time.

Last year McDonald was beaten by Yoshihito Nishioka in the First Round here at Roland Garros, although he did push the opponent to five sets. Even then he was beaten by a ten game margin and I do think Rafael Nadal will be able to break serve regularly in this one.

He broke the Gerasimov serve five times in the First Round and this is a serve that is going to be much more comfortable to deal with. As I said above, this is not an easy number of games to cover, but Rafael Nadal should be able to make a statement like Novak Djokovic did and that is brushing aside Mackenzie McDonald with the loss of just seven games over the course of the match.


Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: If you look at the head to head between every player on the Tour you do find some funny ones where one player has the advantage over the other. One of those might be the 3-1 lead Pierre-Hugues Herbert holds over Alexander Zverev despite the former never having reached the top 30 in the World Rankings and the latter being a feature in the top 10 for some time.

A part of the reason is that these players have not met since 2016 at Roland Garros when Alexander Zverev snapped his losing run to the home hope. Since then it is Zverev who has really kicked on with his career, although there are still some vulnerabilities in his game.

I am not sure Herbert is going to have enough to expose those vulnerabilities though with his limited return game unlikely to pressure Zverev's serve. Pierre-Hugues Herbert is definitely a stronger Doubles player than he is a Singles player, but the Frenchman is comfortable on the clay courts and his good win in the First Round will have given him some confidence.

However the wins have largely come against some of the weaker players on the Tour and Herbert is just 13-21 when playing against top 100 Ranked opponents on the clay. His numbers take a serious dent and I am not sure the Frenchman is going to be helped by the heavier conditions we have seen at the French Open over the last few days.

It might just dent the serve, which is a huge part of the Herbert game, and that should mean Alexander Zverev is able to get his teeth into those return games. When they met here in 2016 the German only broke in 18% of return games played and he only won 37% of return points played, but Alexander Zverev created plenty of break points and I do think he is a better player now having produced some of his best tennis at Grand Slam level.

Pierre-Hugues Herbert will cause problems if he gets into a rhythm behind his serve, but I do think the heavier conditions may make it difficult to avoid a set where Alexander Zverev is able to pull away with a couple of breaks of serve. That should set him on the road to covering this number as he moves through to the Third Round of the last Slam of the season.


Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: Another Grand Slam tournament ended in frustration for Serena Williams who reached the business end of the US Open before losing to Victoria Azarenka in the Semi Final. She looked to be suffering physically by the end of that tournament as Williams continues to try and match Margaret Court's record of 24 Singles Grand Slam titles, but the American has arrived in Paris and looked to move through the gears in her First Round win.

Serena Williams beat Kristie Ahn in the First Round, a player she saw off at the US Open, and now she faces another player that she played at Flushing Meadows. She needed three sets to beat Tsvetana Pironkova at the US Open, but Serena Williams may feel her superiority on the clay courts should give her a clearer edge.

The match at the US Open was a close, competitive one before Serena Williams began to pull away and that means the former World Number 1 has won all five previous matches against the Bulgarian.

We had not seen Tsvetana Pironkova play on the Tour for a number of years as she left to raise a family, but she didn't miss a step in her run at the US Open. The Quarter Final loss to Serena Williams wouldn't have dented the confidence too much, and Pironkova was a strong winner in the First Round in her first match on the clay courts for three years.

She was never the best on the clay courts and I do think that has to play a part against an opponent that Pironkova has struggled to deal with throughout her career.

I would think the slower conditions are going to be an issue for Serena Williams the longer this tournament progresses, but in this match I can see the serve giving her a few more cheaper points than Tsvetana Pironkova will be able to get on her own serve. Her serve began to wear down when Pironkova played Serena Williams at the US Open and I do think the latter is going to be able to time some big winners which should give her the edge in the match.

It is hard to trust a declining Serena Williams to cover the bigger numbers these days, but I think she will find the breaks of serve to cover the mark in this one. I do think Pironkova has to be respected for the way she has played in her time back on the Tour over the last month, but Serena Williams should have a bit too much for her in the Second Round.


Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: There has been talk about the lack of fans potentially releasing some of the pressure on the French players at the French Open this year. In the past we have seen players struggle to put their best tennis on the clay courts with the sense of expectation which comes from the crowd, and Caroline Garcia has already shown how tough she can be in the current climate.

She found a way to motivate herself in her tough First Round match against Anett Kontaveit in a three set win over an opponent who beat her at the Rome Masters earlier this month. That is a very big win for Caroline Garcia who has not always found the consistency needed to fulfil the potential that many felt she had.

The Frenchwoman is a solid clay courter, but it would need something special for her to go on and win the French Open. With that in mind, I do think Garcia has opened the draw for herself to at least reach the second week of the tournament and this is an opponent she has matched up well with in the past, although all three previous wins over Aliaksandra Sasnovich have come on the hard courts.

Like Garcia, Aliaksandra Sasnovich had to dig deep and win her First Round match in three sets and she has reached two Quarter Finals in clay court tournaments since the Tour returned back in August. That has to give her confidence, although it would be foolish to ignore the fact that the majority of those matches were played against opponents Ranked outside the top 100.

In general Sasnovich has struggled when it comes to competing with top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts and I do think Caroline Garcia can put her under pressure in this one.

My only concern with backing Garcia is that she has not really been playing with a lot of consistency and there will be a different pressure on her in the Second Round. She was the underdog in the First Round win over Anett Kontaveit, but there is a different pressure on her now and Garcia is not the best at coping with the expectation around her.

Having limited fans allowed onto the grounds may help Garcia and I do think the match up is one that won't worry her too much. I do think Aliaksandra Sasnovich can play some very high level tennis, but that may not be seen for long enough to win this match and instead I will look for Garcia to dig deep and move into the Third Round while covering the handicap mark.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 10.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Cori Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka-Dominik Koepfer Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yoshihito Nishioka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Norbert Gombos - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Benoit Paire @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Tuesday, 29 September 2020

French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2020 (September 29th)

The French Open has gotten underway and the weather was slightly improved on Monday compared with Sunday, although I don't think the players can hold out too much hope that the cold conditions will suddenly warm up significantly, at least not any time soon.

With the majority of the First Round already completed, the remaining matches in this Round are set to go on Tuesday before the tournament enters a more familiar pattern like all the other Grand Slams.

Adjustments are being made by the players, but also by myself as I try and work out the best approach to take to the selections. I have to accept that the lack of clay court preparation is having an impact, while the cooler conditions and change in ball seemingly irritating those taking part in the tournament.

It has made it a difficult first couple of days, but there is time to turn this tournament around. I would be happy to receive a bit more luck than I have had in the first two days, although I am also looking to make the adjustments needed for better fortunes too.


Cristian Garin - 6.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: There are a few players out on the Tour who are showing that age is nothing but a number, but for others there is a clear decline taking place in their final years in competitive action. One of those who looks to be drawing to the end of his career is Philipp Kohlschreiber as the veteran goes into this First Round match as a clear underdog against Christain Garin.

The German is slipping dangerously close to exiting the top 100 of the World Rankings and that would mean the big events are no longer within Kohlschreiber's grasp. At 36 years old and with his 37th birthday coming up before the end of the year, Philipp Kohlschreiber has to wonder how much he has left to give on the Tour.

He is 1-6 in 2020 in matches against top 100 Ranked opponents and Kohlschreiber has lost his two matches on the main Tour on the clay courts over the last month. Both have been fairly comfortable losses for Kohlschreiber and now he is going up against a top 20 Ranked opponent who is looking to surpass his best career World Ranking by having a strong showing in Paris.

I do have to be a little concerned with how Christian Garin is going to handle a European Autumn when the weather is significantly cooler than it would have been if the tournament was played when scheduled back in May. However, the Chilean reached the Semi Final in Hamburg last week in a clay court event to prepare for the French Open and he pushed Stefanos Tsitsipas all the way in that match before he was eventually beaten.

Philipp Kohlschreiber was struggling with both his serve and return in the two matches he has lost on the clay courts since the US Open was concluded. I do think the conditions won't exactly be favourable for the veteran either as the slower conditions and heavier ball means a lot of longer rallies and that could see Kohlschreiber worn down physically and mentally in a best of five set match.

I would describe Christian Garin as a solid if unspectacular clay court player and even his numbers over the last month don't exactly leap off the page despite that Semi Final run in Hamburg. That does make it more difficult to trust him to cover this kind of number in conditions where breaks of serve could be pretty frequent, I am just not convinced that Philipp Kohlschreiber is the player who will expose those vulnerabilities that Garin has.

The veteran has struggled with his return against top 100 Ranked opponents in 2020 and his own serve is not as strong as it once was. That should couple together for Christian Garin and I will look for him to move through to the Second Round behind a good looking win.


Dusan Lajovic - 7.5 games v Gianluca Mager: On the face of things you may think that Dusan Lajovic is massively over-rated in this First Round match, although his performances over the last month have been encouraging on this surface. The Serbian is very close to cracking his previous career high World Ranking after the Quarter Final run in Hamburg last week, and a strong run for Lajovic in Paris may also been good enough to earn a spot in the top 20 when the World Rankings are released the day after the Final of the French Open.

Losses to Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas are not going to discourage Dusan Lajovic, especially not when you consider how well he has played in his wins. The level of competition has been high so I would expect Lajovic to feel suitably prepared for what could be a tough tournament for many of the players to deal with and he is not facing up to one of the stronger players on the Tour in this one.

That is not to disrespect Gianluca Mager who is inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and that meant an automatic spot in the main draw at the French Open. He has reached the Final at the tournament held in Rio de Janeiro earlier this year which really helped the World Ranking, but the appearance at the US Open last month was the first time Mager had played in the main draw of a Grand Slam tournament.

It is the first time he will be doing that in Paris, but Gianluca Mager may be disappointed he has not been able to do that when the fans have been allowed to show up.

The worry for the Italian has to be the fact he has not won any of the four matches he has played since the Tour resumed in August and the two defeats on the clay courts over the last month have been disappointingly one-sided. Gianluca Mager may feel he can get into his rhythm in the heavier conditions here in Paris, but his serve could be affected and I do think Dusan Lajovic has an edge in the returning part of the game which can put him in a position to wear down this opponent.

It is a big number, I won't deny that, but I do think Dusan Lajovic has been playing with some real confidence which can put him in a position to cover.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 6.5 games v Richard Gasquet: There is something disturbing to think Richard Gasquet is now 34 years old as it suddenly dawns on you about how old you are yourself. The Frenchman has had a strong career, but some will suggest he has underachieved having not won a Grand Slam and you do have to believe his best chances of doing that are now behind him.

Even his career best World Ranking of Number 7 feels like it should have been higher, but overall I am sure Gasquet himself is happy with how he has performed. He would have loved to have his home fans inside the Stadium to watch him play in what could be one of the final French Opens of his career, but that is not to be in 2020 and Gasquet's slip down the World Rankings have meant a very tough First Round draw.

Playing a top ten Ranked opponent is never going to be easy, but the match up with Roberto Bautista Agut has simply not been a good one for the Frenchman. A solid all court player, Roberto Bautista Agut may not feel at his best on the clay courts but I do think he will believe that his fitness will make him a player that can cope with the conditions and deal with the longer rallies that are likely to develop.

The Spaniard reached the Quarter Final in Hamburg last week, but he has long been little more than a slightly better than average clay court player. Roberto Bautista Agut has never been overly reliant on his serve, but I do think it will be a part of his game that could be attacked in the conditions in Paris, although I am not convinced that Richard Gasquet will be the player to fully do that.

When these players have met each other, Roberto Bautista Agut has held 89% of the service games played compared with the 70% number Richard Gasquet has produced. They met last month in New York City under the 'Masters' banner and it was Bautista Agut who won in straight sets and largely dominated the match.

All of their previous matches have come on the hard or grass courts though and the slower conditions here in Paris does change the manner of the match somewhat. I do think the fact that Richard Gasquet has not played a clay court match is a potential problem, but he should be very familiar with how cold things can get in Paris in Autumn and so I do think he will have his moments in this match.

Ultimately I do think Gasquet is also not as strong a clay court player as Roberto Baustisa Agut and the head to head suggests he doesn't particularly enjoy playing the Spaniard. I do think the Bautista Agut serve is one that could be vulnerable in the conditions, but he should return well enough to get into a strong position in this match.

Look out for some long, tough rallies, but I think Roberto Bautista Agut will eventually get into some sort of role which helps him cover this number.


Denis Shapovalov - 7.5 games v Gilles Simon: My first reaction to this First Round match is that much is going to depend on the mindset of the young Canadian, especially in what could be difficult conditions for him. The fact that Denis Shapovalov hits the ball pretty flat is important for him, but he has to be aware that Gilles Simon is still a very strong defender, can run all day and will be looking to frustrate Shapovalov into making mistakes.

In the last couple of years Denis Shapovalov has perhaps gotten a little too frustrated when playing on the clay courts and that is the reason his results have been inconsistent.

After reaching the Rome Masters Semi Final earlier this month, Denis Shapovalov did reach the top ten for the first time, although he does go into the tournament as the World Number 11. I would expect a strong run to return him among the elite of the ATP Tour and any performance near the level produced in Italy will make Shapovalov very difficult to beat.

The serve will always be a big weapon for Denis Shapovalov, but it is the return where he has really impressed in the clay court matches played. That return will be key in this match against veteran Frenchman Gilles Simon who has a 1-4 record in the clay court matches that he has played since the end of the US Open.

Conditions won't be a concern for Simon who will be used to playing tennis in France in September, but the slower courts in Paris might make his serve even more vulnerable than it is anyway. Gilles Simon has only held 72% of service games played on the clay courts in the last month, but he is still someone who can defend well and look to extract mistakes from opponents who feel they need to get closer and closer to the line to finally breach the defences.

There are surely going to be moments in this match where those mistakes come from the Canadian's racquet, but Denis Shapovalov will control the tempo of the match. I expect his aggression to win out even in the slower conditions we are seeing in Paris although Gilles Simon is likely going to have his moments.

Even then I think Denis Shapovalov will have a bit too much strength and aggression for Gilles Simon to keep him contained and the younger player can produce a big win when all is said and done.

MY PICKS: Cristian Garin - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrej Martin - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Van Uytvanck - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Monday, 28 September 2020

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2020 (September 28th)

There has already been some drama at the French Open on the opening day of the delayed 2020 tournament, although I am not sure how I feel about this spot on the calendar for what is going to be the final Grand Slam of the season.

Anyone who has spent any time in Western Europe at the end of September going into early October will know how quickly the weather cools after the summer months have finally drawn to a close. That is something the players have noted already on Sunday with a couple of the early starters complaining about the cold and you can see from the clothes being worn by the players throughout the day that it is plenty cool in Paris.

It is vastly different to when the tournament usually begins at the end of May when the weather is really picking up after the early Spring months are behind us and I do think it is going to produce some strange results over the next fortnight.

For starters we don't have the long clay court season going into Roland Garros like usual, we are expecting a lot more rain in the coming days than you would expect in May and the conditions are certainly a lot heavier than they would be in normal circumstances. Like the US Open, you can't put an asterisk beside the winner of this Grand Slam, but there is no doubt that some of the methods used to make selections in a usual Tennis season may not be as effective this time.

Hopefully I can make the adjustments as much as the players need to make their own on the court.


The First Round continues on Monday, but there is plenty of rain scheduled throughout the next few days. It may mean a delayed start in the morning in Paris aside from on the main show court which is going to be able to show off the roof they now have.

The other courts may have to wait before players can get to play on Monday, while I would not be surprised to see a number of rain delays too. Those can turn the momentum of matches, but it is something we all have to deal with in an Autumn Grand Slam.


Marin Cilic to win a set v Dominic Thiem: It is going to be a lot of fun to see how Dominic Thiem handles being a Grand Slam Champion- if he can use the new status to give himself further belief that he can now sit alongside the top names on the Tour, the Austrian will be in a position to add to the title won in New York City earlier this month.

We have not seen Dominic Thiem since he just about held himself together in a fifth set tie-breaker to win the US Open. Throughout his career Thiem has been a much stronger clay court player than a hard court one and he would have gone into Roland Garros as one of the favourites to win the tournament if it had been played back in May as scheduled.

There will be many who believe he is the favourite over the next two weeks having reached back to back Finals in Paris, although Thiem will have to overcome some really big challenges to do so. He is in the same half of the draw as Rafael Nadal, the twelve time Champion here, while Dominic Thiem was suffering win an Achilles issue at the end of the tournament at the US Open and I do wonder if he is truly going to be at 100% in time for the French Open.

Little clay court time and the unfamiliar conditions in Paris also could work against the Number 3 Seed and the First Round opponent is not an easy one. Marin Cilic is also a former US Open Champion, although it has felt like the Croatian has seen his best days on the Tour and the numbers have underlined the decline made.

Marin Cilic did win a couple of matches in Rome a couple of weeks ago which will give him some belief, but he has lost all three previous matches against Dominic Thiem and those have all come on a surface that should give the Croatian the edge. One of those losses came at the US Open earlier this month, although Cilic was able to win a set on the day.

I think he can do the same here if he plays to the kind of level that Marin Cilic produced in Rome and especially if Dominic Thiem is a little undercooked. I do think the conditions won't really suit either of these players that much, but they could hinder Cilic a little more if he is being forced to go for a little more to find some pace out of the balls which have been criticised by many already.

Even then I think Cilic is able to take advantage of Dominic Thiem's lack of tennis and potentially worrisome injury. He took a set off the eventual US Open Champion when they met there and I do think Marin Cilic is doing enough to at least take one here.


Filip Krajinovic - 7.5 games v Nikola Milojevic: The main Serbian hope at the French Open will continue to lie with the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic, but the nation is providing a number of competitors here in Paris.

Two of them are meeting in the First Round at the French Open and you do have to wonder if the Qualifying matches that Nikola Milojevic has played to enter the main draw will give him an advantage that can make this a more competitive match than it looks like being on paper. That is no disrespect to Milojevic who came from a set down to win each of this three Qualifying matches to enter the main draw, but he is also a player that has spent the majority of his career playing below the main ATP Tour level.

The 25 year old is not very far away from surpassing his career best World Ranking, but beating his compatriot Filip Krajinovic looks like being a big ask. The latter was playing really well at the Rome Masters and he pushed Novak Djokovic very hard before losing to the eventual Champion and I do think he is very comfortable on the surface.

You don't want to read too much from the small sample of matches that Krajinovic played in Rome, but he has long been someone who can get enough out of his serve to make the return game a real factor in any match he plays. His best surface looks to be the clay courts too, although it should be said that the majority of those matches would be played under very different conditions than the ones we will be seeing in Paris.

Getting used to the conditions could mean a slow start and make this feel like a lot of games to cover, especially against a Qualifier who has been here a few days and is match ready.

Nikola Milojevic has decent clay court pedigree of his own, and his numbers have to be respected even if they are not as strong as Filip Krajinovic's on either the serve or the return. Those look a lot weaker when you think of the level of competition that Milojevic generally faces compared with who he will be stepping up to face in the First Round and I do think we will see Filip Krajinovic eventually begin to wear down this opponent.

Being from the same nation should mean Krajinovic is more familiar with this Qualifier than he may have been with another and that should make him feel more comfortable with what to expect. It can also mean additional pressure on the favourite, but I think Filip Krajinovic deals with it well enough to eventually pull away for a comfortable win and a place in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Marin Cilic to Win a Set @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Hugo Gaston - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tennys Sandgren + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Magda Linette - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Sunday, 27 September 2020

NFL Week 3 Picks 2020 (September 24-28)

That was a brutal Week 2 of the NFL season and I do think it is partly down to the way the teams have had to prepare in a year affected by the Coronavirus pandemic.

Injuries are always a feature of the NFL and my main reason for suggesting that picking a winner of the Super Bowl in August is a foolhardy game.

Even then it was surprising to see so many big name players going down around the League and it doesn't do any favours for viewing figures that so many have been lost for the year.

For Fantasy Football players there are hard decisions to make in the next couple of weeks- when players you've picked high in the Draft have fallen by the wayside it can be tough to find those replacements to at least give your team a shot over the next fourteen weeks.

My own team has already been banged up in one League with Michael Thomas looking like he will miss a number of weeks, but I've managed to avoid much of the carnage in another. However, I am not going to be holding my breath that it will continue through the coming weeks as players are not quite conditioned to play full on NFL games with the lack of a pre-season and work that could be done to prepare for the new season.


I will get onto the Week 3 Picks below with a few words about the first two weeks of the season, but before that you can read my current top five and bottom five teams in my 'Power Ranking'.


1) Kansas City Chiefs (2-0): the Super Bowl Champions remain unbeaten, although they almost suffered the upset in Week 2. At the moment they are the team to beat, but I can't be the only one who can't wait to see how Monday Night Football goes?!

2) Baltimore Ravens (2-0): Lamar Jackson looks to have improved again and the Ravens are playing with a point to prove in 2020 having had another poor PlayOff run in 2019. They host the Chiefs on Monday Night and I think they can show the rest of the NFL what they are all about.

3) Seattle Seahawks (2-0): Russell Wilson is being allowed to 'cook' and the Seahawks look strong on both sides of the ball. The injuries in the 49ers line up makes Seattle the team to beat in the NFC West.

4) Green Bay Packers (2-0): Aaron Rodgers playing with a chip on his shoulder is not good for the rest of the NFL.

5) Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0): The Defensive side of the ball looks as stout as last season, but the return of Big Ben is huge for the Steelers. He has looked good in the first two games and will surely only improve in each passing week in the League.


32) New York Jets (0-2): I don't like the Jets, but even I am beginning to feel sorry for a team that persists with Adam Gase as the Head Coach.

31) Carolina Panthers (0-2): The injury to Christian McCaffrey is only going to slow down the Panthers that much more.

30) Miami Dolphins (0-2): They were supposed to take a significant step forward in 2020, but the Dolphins fans are now just waiting to see when Tua Tagovailoa will be given the chance at Quarter Back.

29) Minnesota Vikings (0-2): The Defensive unit has taken a step backwards and Kirk Cousins and the Offense are not playing well enough to cover the vulnerabilities.

28) Detroit Lions (0-2): I could easily have switched them around with the Minnesota Vikings, the Detroit Lions are another team who need to recognise that Matt Patricia's time as Head Coach needs to be ended sooner than later.


Week 3 Picks
After a very strong Week 1, the Week 2 Picks actually returned an even better mark at 7-3 so I really can't complain about that.

A late Miami drive leading to a Touchdown meant they landed within the number which is my only disappointment, especially as they did not win the game outright if they were going to cover the mark. My other two losses in Week 2 never really got close to covering so I am not going to complain about those.

I did need a couple of late Defensive stands to make sure I earned a couple of winners with the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants preventing late scores, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored inside the final two minutes to make sure of their win over the Panthers but also cover the mark.

In all honesty I have had more good luck than bad in the first two weeks of the season, but it is a long year and I am hoping to avoid the truly terrible weeks which can erase all the good work very quickly.

Keeping the momentum going in Week 3 is the only thing on my mind and taking it one week at a time towards the end of the year, one in which we are largely going to be sitting in and trying to stay as safe as possible.


Washington Football Team @ Cleveland Browns Pick: Both teams go into Week 3 with a 1-1 record and that means this non-Conference game is more important to both than they can sometimes be. In most cases the non-Conference games on the schedule are the 'least' important out of the sixteen that are played each season, but those do still make up a quarter of a team's season and for the Cleveland Browns and Washington Football Team there is simply not enough consistency to believe they can afford to drop any game.

That is particularly the case for the Browns who are in a Division where the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are both sitting at 2-0 already this season. Those two teams look like being amongst the very best in the AFC and so the Browns will have to make use of the other games outside of the Division to give themselves a shot at making the PlayOffs.

Their visitors are in a weaker Division, but the Washington Football Team have dropped their last game and will be looking to bounce back.

It won't be easy to do that with the injuries they are dealing with on both sides of the ball and the Offensive Line lost another key figure before this game. That means their young Quarter Back Dwayne Haskins won't be given a lot of time, although some of the enthusiasm for the selection will be taken away if the Cleveland Browns are not able to suit up some of their pass rushers.

Cleveland played on Thursday Night Football in Week 2 so I would be hopeful that some of those players will be able to return, but even without them I expect the Browns Defensive Line to win the battle in the trenches. The Browns Defensive Line should be able to contain any threat the Washington Football Team bring on the ground and that means Washington will be throwing the ball from third and long spots.

From there I do think the Browns can get the pressure on Dwayne Haskins and try and force mistakes, while also protecting a Secondary which has given up some big yards through the first two weeks of the season. The fact that Cleveland are banged up in the Defensive Backs unit does not help, but if Haskins is not given time and if Washington can't find some consistency from their Receivers I am not sure they are going to have enough to expose the Browns.

Pressure is not going to be reserved for Dwayne Haskins in this one though as Baker Mayfield can expect to see the Washington pass rush all around him whenever he is in obvious passing situations. The one key difference for Mayfield coming in off a strong outing is that he has the dual-threat in the backfield that can ease all the pass rush pressure coming at him.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have started this season in strong fashion and the Cleveland Offensive Line which has been rebuilt since the end of 2019 have really paved the way for them. They are earning 5.7 yards per carry and the Washington Defensive Line is much better when it comes to rushing the passer than stopping the run and that should mean Baker Mayfield is left in third and manageable spots.

Both Chubb and Hunt are capable of catching short passes from their Quarter Back and making tacklers miss, while the Offensive Line will also believe they can earn the advantage in the trenches to set up play-action for their team to move the ball down the field. There are holes in the Secondary which can be exposed by Mayfield who has some talented Receivers to throw to and I do think Cleveland will be able to put up the points that Arizona put up against Washington in Week 2.

The Browns have been a miserable team to back at home, and they failed to cover last week when they allowed Cincinnati to score late to get within the mark. Last week we almost saw Washington come back from a big deficit to cover, but they are 2-10 against the spread in their last twelve after a straight up loss and I think that trend is extended here.

Neither team should be looking ahead to Week 4, but the extra time to prepare should suit Cleveland for this Week 3 game and I will look for them to cover.


Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots Pick: If someone had told you only one of these teams would be 2-0 going into Week 3 then I am sure the majority of people would have picked the New England Patriots to be that team.

A late goalline stand from the Seattle Seahawks prevented the Patriots from remaining unbeaten in the 2020 season, but Bill Belichick has to be pleased with what he saw from his new look Offensive unit which is coping without Tom Brady. Defensively he will be demanding improvements immediately, but the Patriots are home this week and that will certainly help.

Surprisingly they are hosting the 2-0 Las Vegas Raiders who have beaten the Carolina Panthers and then christened their new Stadium in the desert by knocking off the New Orleans Saints. That second victory will give the Raiders a lot of belief that they can have a very big 2020 season under Jon Gruden, although the short week is a hindrance.

A bigger problem for Las Vegas is the host of injuries on the Offensive Line as Ritchie Incognito became the latest to go down. That means the Raiders will head to New England with a number of unfamiliar faces on the Offensive Line and they are also dealing with knocks that the likes of Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller are dealing with too.

It doesn't bode well for Derek Carr despite the strong start to 2020 and even though the Patriots are not exactly known for their pass rush, I do think the injuries on the Offensive Line means the Quarter Back will be under pressure in this one. Last week the Patriots Secondary would have felt embarrassed by the amount of passing success Russell Wilson had, but this week they can bounce back and show why they are still considered one of the elite Defensive units in the NFL.

The New England Defensive Line has played the run pretty well and I think they can at least contain Jacobs if he is not at 100%. With more pressure likely to come up front against the banged up Las Vegas Offensive Line I do think it could be tough for the Raiders to have the same kind of successes they have enjoyed through the first two weeks of the season.

One player I do expect to keep his standards going is Cam Newton even though the New England Patriots have lost a key piece of their own Offensive Line for the next month. Center David Andrews has gone down with an injury and the rest of the Line look to him for leadership so there may be a dent in what the Patriots have been able to do in the first two weeks under their new Offense.

Even with the injury, the Patriots may still believe they are going to be able to give Cam Newton time to throw the ball against a young Las Vegas Secondary which is still learning their trade at this level. The Quarter Back can help himself by leaning on the run game, which Newton is a key part of, and I fully expect New England to be able to establish the run in this one.

The Raiders Defensive Line have given up 4.9 yards per carry through the first two weeks of the season and I do think this Patriots team can have success even without Andrews and possibly James White too.

Having Cam Newton in the backfield means there is the additional threat of the Quarter Back tucking the ball in and moving the chains himself with his legs and that should keep the Raiders pass rush from really pinning back their ears.

Without the pressure, Newton should be able to pick up from last week and let rip down the field. The Raiders have some talented players in the Secondary, but we may not see the best of them in what has to be considered a learning year for them and the Patriots have enough in the Receiving unit to get the better of them.

It should mean this is largely a day in which New England keep the chains moving up and down the field, while also having a Defensive unit that is able to take advantage of the injuries the Raiders are faced with.

Playing on a short week does not help the Raiders cause and they are 4-14 against the spread in their last eighteen following a win. New England have always been a very good team recovering from losses under Bill Belichick and I think Cam Newton can take the team on his back and keep that trend going with a good looking home win in Week 3.


Houston Texans @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: After the way the Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive unit performed last season, the return of Big Ben Roethlisberger was expected to take the team forward in 2020. Despite the strong efforts on one side of the ball, the Steelers missed the PlayOffs in 2019 because of their inconsistent Offensive play, but the return of a two time Super Bowl Winning Quarter Back is a huge boost for the team.

If the first two weeks of 2020 are anything to go by the Steelers are looking much more in sync Offensively and that allows the Defensive unit to step up and really intensify their bid to make plays.

Ben Roethlisberger is still getting on the same page with some of the younger Receivers on the roster, but he will be given a big boost by the return of a key Offensive Lineman. It is important to have a healthy blocking unit when facing a Defensive Line like the one the Houston Texans will be bringing out to the field and it should mean Roethlisberger is pretty well protected in this one.

A bigger factor may be the fact that Pittsburgh should be able to run the ball efficiently in this game against a Houston Defensive Line giving up 5.6 yards per carry. Any time a team is able to do that it should mean the pass rush is eased slightly and the play-action becomes a real threat for that team.

Pittsburgh should be able to have their way Offensively even though the Houston numbers in the Secondary are pretty good through the first two weeks despite playing Kansas City and Baltimore. Teams being able to crash through the Houston Defensive unit on the ground is part of the reason for the good looking numbers, and I do think the Steelers can have success throwing the ball when they establish the run.

The Houston Texans are 0-2 this season and they now face yet another top team having met the Super Bowl Champions and the team that finished with the best record in the AFC in back to back weeks. Things are not going to be easier for a team who might not be on the same page as Head Coach Bill O'Brien after the decision to trade away DeAndre Hopkins to the Arizona Cardinals.

It has left Deshaun Watson in a very difficult spot and I really feel sorry for the Quarter Back who has impressed since coming into the NFL. His Offensive Line has been struggling to keep Watson upright and now they have to face the Steel Curtain which has been able to get in front of the marker an give their key pass rushers the full go-ahead to get after the Quarter Back.

David Johnson made up part of the trade that sent Hopkins to Arizona, but this is a very difficult match up for him and Duke Johnson who do share the ball in the backfield. Deshaun Watson is capable of making some runs to move the chains himself, but it might be foolish to try that against this Steelers Defensive unit and it may all be on Watson's arm to keep the chains moving with any kind of consistency.

If Watson has time he should find some holes to exploit, but that is a huge if when you think of the way the Steelers have had successes knocking the Quarter Back to the ground. The Secondary has given up some yards, but Houston are still building the chemistry with their star Quarter Back who generally would have turned to DeAndre Hopkins when in key downs and distance in the past.

The pressure on Deshaun Watson to make plays has led to him pushing too had and making mistakes he may not otherwise make. That is always the danger agains this Pittsburgh team and I think the Steelers can put the Texans in a big hole and perhaps having to think about their Head Coach and whether he is going to get them over the line in the PlayOffs.

Houston were crushed at home by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2, but they are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine after a double digit straight up loss at home. However, they have not covered in their four as the underdog and Pittsburgh are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home.

The Steelers are not always a team I like backing as a favourite, but the favourite has covered in five in a row between these teams and I think Pittsburgh can do the same here.


San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants Pick: A few months in the NFL can be a very long time and the Super Bowl losing team the San Francisco 49ers will know all about that. They could easily have won the big game against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the 49ers were narrowly beaten and many would have believed they would be good enough to go again.

They might well be good enough, but for now we have no idea as the 49ers are dealing with a host of injuries on both sides of the ball. There are times when you get the under-rated injury that the casual fan may not appreciate, but San Francisco are missing skill players on both side of the ball and they are travelling back to a Stadium that they complained about last week.

San Francisco had several players complain about the surface at MetLife Stadium but they have to return to the same venue and that has to play on the mind for them. They have blamed the surface for the injuries that were picked up last week which means the 49ers are going into Week 3 with their backup Quarter Back Nick Mullens being given the keys to the Offense.

At normal health you would favour the 49ers to simply run the ball down the New York Giants throat and they would have success, but without their starting Quarter Back I do think it will be much harder to do that. The reason for that is you have to imagine the Giants are going to load the box and make sure Mullens has to try and beat them through the air, although New York's Defensive Line have not contained the run very well to open the 2020 season.

Raheem Mostert being ruled out helps the Giants too and I do think they can get into a position where they can unleash the pass rush to take advantage of the San Francisco Offensive Line. That Line is much happier paving the way for the running game rather than pass blocking and New York can give themselves a chance to earn an upset here if they can use the San Francisco injuries in their favour.

The 0-2 Giants have not escaped the injury bug themselves though and that has ruled Saquon Barkley out for the remainder of the season. The Running Back is a key weapon for the Giants who have been struggling being guided by Daniel Jones, but the 49ers have a host of injuries on this side of the ball too and that should only aid their young Quarter Back.

Devonta Freeman has been signed to take over from Barkley but he is likely to be a bigger threat catching the ball out of the backfield rather than running the ball straight at the 49ers. However he may have more success than he might usually have done because the San Francisco Defensive Line is down some key starters too and that should only bee good news for a Giants team struggling to score points.

Richard Sherman is missing from the Secondary in this one too and so Jones may have more success throwing the ball than he has for much of this season. The Giants can't expect the 49ers to roll over even with the injuries they are dealing with and last week the New York Jets found that out very quickly so Daniel Jones and company have to play a clean game.

With San Francisco having spent a week on the East Coast I do think there is a chance the players are just looking forward to going home. The injuries are piling up and mentally they might not be happy to be back on a surface that they heavily criticised last week.

My one concern is that the Giants are a miserable 1-11 against the spread in their last twelve games as the home underdog. San Francisco have some very strong trends under Kyle Shanahan as their Head Coach, but it is hard to imagine any NFL team dealing with the host of injuries they have on both sides of the ball.

Nick Mullens Quarter Backed the San Francisco 49ers when they last played the New York Giants and he saw his team lose by 4 points despite being favoured by this same spread that we see for this game. Daniel Jones has not really lit up the scoreboard which is a concern, but the sharp money is behind the Giants and I do think they cover as the home underdog.


Los Angeles Rams @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Two teams who have remained unbeaten through the first two weeks of the NFL season are meeting each other on Sunday and I think this is the chance for both the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams to show they are 'for real'. The Bills have beaten the two weaker teams in the AFC East as the favourites, while the Los Angeles Rams have wins over two teams from the NFC East which doesn't have a single team with a winning record through two weeks.

That means both teams will have been given some plaudits, but the players themselves and the Coaching staff may see this as a chance to make a statement that they are going to be firmly in the mix when we get to January and possibly February.

Out of the two teams I would suggest the Rams being 2-0 is more of a surprise than the Bills only because the latter look to be a progressing team under third year Josh Allen at Quarter Back. The Bills went out and helped their young Quarter Back by bringing in Stefon Diggs and the Wide Receiver and Allen look to be on the same page already which has helped the Bills surprise people with a strong passing game through two weeks.

Josh Allen had 1000 more passing yards in 2019 compared with his rookie year and he has already thrown over 700 yards in the two games played in 2020. He will feel confident he can get after the Los Angeles Rams Secondary considering some of the key pieces this team have lost on the Defensive side of the ball over the last several months.

He is a hard Quarter Back to take down and Allen is always capable of making a couple of scrambling runs to reach the First Down marker when he needs to. Physical strengths aside, the Bills may feel they can deal with the Los Angeles pass rush as long as they can keep an eye on where Aaron Donald is lining up and that should give Josh Allen the chance to find some holes in the Secondary and keep the big plays coming.

We have yet to see the Bills really knuckle down and run the ball like we have become used to, but the Offensive Line could pave the way for some big gains on the ground. It is time for Sean McDermott to lean on Devin Singletary rather than the committee approach used for the Running Back position through the first two weeks of the season and doing that should help the Bills keep the Offense in manageable Third Down spots against a Rams Defensive Line which has allowed 4.8 yards per carry.

There is no doubt that part of the reason a lot of people were not expecting a lot from the Los Angeles Rams was because of the down season that Jared Goff had at the Quarter Back position. Fewer Touchdown passes thrown and more Interceptions had people questioning whether Goff was going to be able to get the Rams over the line, but he has come out with 542 yards thrown through two games and led Los Angeles to two solid wins.

This week Goff is going to be going up against the best Defensive unit he has seen in 2020 and that is going to present a real challenge for him. The Buffalo Bills have some key players back to strengthen a unit that has not played as well as they can do in the first two games of the season and they could benefit from the fact that the Rams are down to a third string Running Back.

It has not been easy to run the ball against the Bills, but Los Angeles are a smart Offensive team that will use different schemes to open things up for their team. Short passes into screens can just loosen Defenses, and that may be the game plan without Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers in this game.

The Los Angeles Rams Offensive Line has played really well in protecting Jared Goff who can help with his scrambling ability as well throwing quick passes to negate any pass rush Buffalo can bring. This is a Defensive Line with plenty of ability to get to the Quarter Back, and that will help Buffalo to force mistakes when teams throw into a talented Secondary which also looks to have important players ready to go.

I do like the Bills in this game and I think the miles the Los Angeles Rams have had to travel over the last ten days is not going to help their cause, nor is the early slot in the Eastern Time window. They are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the favourite, although Buffalo did not cover last week, while the Rams are 5-12-1 against the spread in their last eighteen as the underdog.

I think this feels like a game in which the Bills will be making a statement to show they are one of the top teams in the NFL and I do think they are better than the Rams. Josh Allen can outplay Jared Goff in this one and I think they are good value to cover this spread even if the public are very much behind the Rams.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 4 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 2 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2020 (September 27th)

I've never liked the fact that the French Open begins on a Sunday and that remains the case despite the fact that the tournament has had to be moved from May to the end of September.

Conditions are vastly different to what the players would have been dealing with if the tournament was played in its usual spot and I do think the weather is going to be a huge impact on the event with the poor forecast for the next two weeks in Paris.

The top names should be largely unaffected, but that doesn't help some of the others who will feel that this is a tournament they could potentially win.

I will have a longer post for the Day 2 Picks from the French Open, but on the Sunday First Round matches I am going to have to place my selections below.


MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pablo Andujar - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Saturday, 26 September 2020

Boxing Picks 2020- Charlo Twins and Josh Taylor (September 26th)

Like many sports in the United Kingdom, Boxing promoters have been waiting to see whether the government were going to allow ANY fans into Arenas for the big Boxing fights that are set to be scheduled for the final quarter of the terrible 2020 year.

Over the past week it has been announced that new restrictions are going to be place for up to six months and that has effectively postponed any attempt to bring fans back into Stadiums for sporting events.

It could be a big blow for many sports, but Boxing has a habit of getting on with the job and that has seen some big cards announced either side of the Atlantic. The three top Heavyweights are all expected to be in action before the end of the year with the promoters looking to avoid stagnating careers, while in the UK the big fights between Oleksandr Usyk and Dereck Chisora and the rematch between Alexander Povetkin and Dillian Whyte have been announced for the coming weeks.

At least that will keep the fans entertained during what could be the difficult winter months where restrictions might become much tighter as they were back in March and April.


This weekend Boxing fans are spoilt with some top fights scheduled across three different venues- I am a huge Josh Taylor fan so it will be brilliant to see him back in action before he, hopefully, can move onto the big Unification fights and potentially moving up in weight in 2021. The WBSS Cruiserweight Final looks to be one filled with huge punches and has finally been scheduled for this weekend, while the Charlo Twins head up a PPV in the United States on what is a stacked card and with some uncertainty as to how the two main events will develop.

That uncertainty builds intrigue and I am looking forward to an evening on the sofa and will be completely unaffected by pubs now closing at 10pm rather than 11pm.

I am stunned that none of the big sporting channels in the United Kingdom have picked up the Charlo card, but over the coming weeks and months they are going to be focusing on building their own PPVs and perhaps the cost was too much. At this time it feels like the costs are going to be placed on the consumers head rather than the big networks and that means we have a number of PPV events coming up which will also mean picking and choosing which cards you are willing to pay for.

Over the last couple of years the PPV market in the United Kingdom is certainly not as strong as it was in the years before that and outside of Anthony Joshua it is very hard to know where people are willing to spend their money. I can see the Tyson Fury-Deontay Wilder 3 card and the Alexander Povetkin-Dillian Whyte being popular, but the other cards that have been suggested for PPV will find it much tougher at a time when people are suffering financially.


Charlie Edwards vs Kyle Williams
It has been over a year since we last saw Charlie Edwards in the ring and he has since moved promoters and also weight.

He actually will be up two Divisions when he enters the ring on Saturday, and the long-term plan may be to drop back to Super-Flyweight which is where some massive fights could potentially await, but Edwards has to make a statement here.

The last time we saw him he was very fortunate to escape with his World Title at Flyweight after it was ruled that Julio Cesar Martinez had hit Edwards while he was already ruled down. Regardless of the result, Charlie Edwards knew his time was over having felt drained boiling down to the weight and he has spoken about being much stronger at his current level.

Charlie Edwards is a big favourite to get the better of Kyle Williams who has come up short when fighting for British and European belts at this weight. That may mean Williams feels like the naturally bigger man, but he is going to have to bridge some levels to make this a competitive contest.

Only one of his two defeats have come by Stoppage, but I think Charlie Edwards will be able to break him down over the course of the Ten Rounds. He isn't exactly known for stoppage powers with six of his fifteen wins coming inside the distance, but Edwards does feel he can make more of an impact at this weight compared with his previous one.

I think this fight has been put together for Edwards to do that and he might be able to move through the gears and show his superior quality as the Rounds progress. Kyle Williams is unlikely to want to cover up and see it through to the bell and when he takes chances Charlie Edwards can make him pay.

A small interest in a late Stoppage is the play here.


Ricards Bolotniks vs Hosea Burton
The Golden Contract tournament has captured the imagination of Boxing fans in Europe and the Semi Final of the Light Heavyweight tournament takes place on Saturday evening in Latvia.

That is where the home hope Ricards Bolotniks will be hoping to back up his upset win in the Quarter Final when he takes on the favourite for the tournament in Hosea Burton.

The second Semi Final is going to be fought during the week, but both Bolotniks and Burton will not be worrying about that and are instead feeling pretty good about their chances of winning this fight.

Ricards Bolotniks crushed unbeaten Steven Ward in One Round in Brentwood back in December, but I don't know if you can read too much into that victory. He has won five fights in a row, but Bolotniks has also been beaten five times already in his career and I do think Hosea Burton is a real step up in class for him to deal with.

The favourite had a fairly comfortable win in his own Quarter Final as he took a Unanimous Decision, but Burton will be disappointed with the way his career has somewhat stalled in the last few years. Hosea Burton lost to Frank Buglioni, the sole defeat he has on his record, but that was back in 2016 and this will only be the eighth fight since then.

He has been linked with some bigger names, but Burton has not really been able to push forward and that is what makes this Golden Contract tournament so important for him. I do think he should be able to put some on Bolotniks in this fight and I do think that will give Burton every chance of making a statement ahead of any potential Final.

I am not buying the suggestion that Burton can end this in the first stanza, but I do think Ricards Bolotniks won't be very hard to find and eventually the bigger hitting of Hosea Burton should pay off.

I think the British fighter can avoid trying to win a Decision away from home by finding the stoppage at some point over the course of Twelve Rounds.


Josh Taylor vs Apinun Khongsong
The Coronavirus crisis has put a number of Boxers on hold in their career, but the decision was made by Josh Taylor's people that he needs to get out there and get his mandatory out of the way.

There is no doubt that Taylor would love to Unify the Light Welterweight Division and then perhaps move up for some monster fights, but he does want to clear things out in his own Division. Last year he won the World Boxing Super Series Light Welterweight tournament with an impressive victory over Regis Prograis and that makes Josh Taylor a big favourite to win a fight like this one.

To be perfectly honest it is hard to know what to expect from Apinun Khongsong who has won sixteen pro fights and thirteen by stoppage to move into the mandatory spot. Only one of those fights have taken place outside of Thailand, but the 24 year old will feel he can hurt Taylor if he has been underestimated.

Realistically it would be a big surprise if Josh Taylor was caught out, although I do think he might take a bit of time to warm up having been out of the ring for almost twelve months. The counter punching should open things up for Taylor as the fight develops and I do think by the mid-Rounds he will be in complete control and landing some spiteful punches of his own.

Josh Taylor hits plenty hard and I think the big test for Apinun Khongsong will be how much punishment he is going to be willing to take- I don't think the Thai fighter will fold quickly, but by halfway it should be a one-sided bout and I believe the corner or the referee may have to step in at around that point.


Mairis Briedis vs Yuniel Dorticos
The World Boxing Super Series has had some problems in the time it has been in operation, but they have also managed to do what they set out to and that is create some real stars.

The previous Cruiserweight Tournament crowned Oleksandr Usyk as the man to beat and he has since become a very big name, and the second running of the Cruiserweights has been brilliant to watch.

Finally we have the Final set to go as Mairis Briedis and Yuniel Dorticos meet in Germany and I honestly can't see this being anything but a big hitting contest. At any time you may see a punch that swings the contest in favour of one of the fighters and I do think it will be a contest that ends with one of the Boxers unable to go any further.

It is hard to know who should be favourite- I am a big fan of Yuniel Dorticos, but Mairis Briedis has shown tremendous resiliency and hits very well himself. Either way I would be a little surprised to hear the final bell sound in this one and am going to look for one of the Boxers to put enough punches together to announce themselves as the Champion and man to beat in the Division going forward.


Daniel Roman vs Juan Carlos Payano
This is not quite a crossroads bout for Daniel Roman, but it will be a long way back to relevancy if he was to be beaten by Juan Carlos Payano.

That is no disrespect to Payano who is a former World Champion, but he has been stopped by the elite of the Division in two of his last three fights and at 36 years old I do wonder how much is left in the tank.

Daniel Roman is also coming in off a loss as he lost his WBA and IBF World Super Bantamweight titles, but he had won nineteen fights in a row before that. The narrow loss to Murodjon Akhmadaliev would have hurt Roman, but I do think this is a bout that has been put together for him to show there is plenty more to come from him.

He does only have ten stoppages from twenty-seven wins on his resume which is a concern about whether Roman has the power to get this done inside the distance like Naoya Inoue and Luis Nery managed to do against Juan Carlos Payano. However Daniel Roman has shown enough to put plenty of recent fighters down on their backside and I do think he can break down Payano in this one and force someone to step in on behalf of the former Champion.

It definitely feels like a fight that may go more along the lines of the Nery win over Payano rather than the Inoue win and I think Daniel Roman will return to winning ways and position himself to have another crack at a World Title sooner rather than later.


Brandon Figueroa vs Damien Vazquez
At the end of 2019 Brandon Figueroa may have lost his 100% record as a professional Boxer, but he remains unbeaten after being given a Draw when facing Julio Ceja. The American thought he had done enough that day,

He hits hard and this does feel like a showcase kind of fight for Figueroa who puts his World Title on the line against Damien Vazquez.

The 23 year old has won fifteen of the seventeen professional fights he has had, but Damien Vazquez has not really mixed in top company too often. His resume certainly does not look anything as strong as Brandon Figueroa's and Damien Vazquez' sole loss came to Juan Carlos Payano who sandwiched that win with Knock Out losses of his own.

The big test for Vazquez is showing he can handle the power of Brandon Figueroa and I am not sure that is going to be the case. The Champion can really get on top of his opponents very quickly and I do think he will get Damien Vazquez out of there to announce that he is ready for bigger fights.

Brandon Figueroa should have the power to get to Damien Vazquez early and I think that will lead to a stoppage in the first half of this bout.


John Riel Casimero vs Duke Micah
If it wasn't for the Coronavirus crisis, John Riel Casimero would have already have had a Unification bout with Naoya Inoue in the books in 2020. Instead the delay has meant he has had to look elsewhere and he defends his title against the unbeaten Ghanaian Duke Micah.

At 31 years old Casimero is unsurprisingly the favourite having last been seen ripping the World Title out of the hands of Zolani Tete in a Three Round whitewash. It was a hugely impressive performance and means the Filipino has won five fights in a row and all of those have come in stoppage victories.

His opponent is unbeaten but a look through the Duke Micah resume doesn't really have many names that standout and it is a big step up for him. He has to be respected having won nineteen of his twenty-four fights with a stoppage, but that may also mean Micah is going to be willing to stand and trade with Casimero which can only be music to the ears of the Champion.

John Riel Casimero may still get the shot at Inoue he is desperate to have, but that means he can't afford to overlook this opponent. The style of Micah may actually help Casimero make a statement of intent in this one and I do think he can win something of a shoot out as he shows the levels that are needed in Boxing to get to the very top and I will back the favourite to win this fight in the first half that has been scheduled.


Jermall Charlo vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko
The card might look pretty stacked, but I have little doubt that best one of the night comes from the Middleweight Division as Jermall Charlo defends his World Title against Sergiy Derevyanchenko.

We have seen this Charlo Twin being on the right side of a controversial Decision in recent times where his brother was perhaps an unfortunate loser, but this does look the most difficult test that Jermall Charlo would have faced.

Sergiy Derevyanchenko has a long amateur career and he has moved into the professional ranks and already taken on the likes of Daniel Jacobs and Gennady Golovkin. He lost both, controversially, and the only really worry for the Ukrainian is that those two tough fights have sapped some of the gas tank.

He is a quality Boxer like many coming out of the Ukraine, and there will be little give as far as Derevyanchenko is concerned. He will believe he is the better Boxer of the two and only the early Knock Downs suffered in both defeats have ended up proving costly on the cards.

Jermall Charlo is not short of power so I am a touch concerned that he could tag Derevyanchenko and give himself the edge by finding a Knock Down or two to swing things in his own favour. The American is a sharp counter puncher and I think that has to be something Derevyanchenko has to be aware of.

However I do really like Sergiy Derevyanchenko and I do think he is the kind of Boxer that can keep the pace high enough to take the Rounds when Charlo is perhaps sitting back and waiting to find a big punch to counter. There is always the chance that the Ukrainian will be three Rounds down on the local cards before the fight has even begun which makes getting a Decision very difficult on the night, but the controversial Decisions already made against Derevyanchenko should be on the minds of the judges.

I have thought for a while that this is a difficult fight for Charlo and only Derevyanchenko leaving something in the ring at the end of his defeat to Golovkin may prove to be the difference. If the Ukrainian has prepared as he did for the fights with Jacobs and GGG, I do think he can cause an upset here and has to be worth a small interest to win this one on the cards.

It would be a huge surprise if Derevyanchenko could force a stoppage so I do think this is the only way in which he can rip the WBC title away, but it is hard to oppose Jermall Charlo as the 'A' name in the bout.


Jermell Charlo vs Jeison Rosario
They tossed a coin to decide which of the Twins would be main eventing this card in the final fight of the evening and it is Jermell Charlo who won out. He will be looking to Unify the Light Middleweight Division with three of the four main belts on the line in this one and Charlo is the favourite to do that.

Most would have expected Julian Williams in the other corner and the easy storyline that would have been able to produce, but Jeison Rosario had other days. In a huge upset, Rosario stopped Williams to rip the belts from him and he will head into this fight with a lot of confidence.

You can't blame him for doing so, but there is still a feeling that Williams underwhelmed rather than Rosario being a world beater and I do think that Charlo will be able to ride out some early pressure to eventually take control of this one.

He may not be as strong as Jermall, but Jermell Charlo hits plenty hard himself and I can see him grinding down Jeison Rosario as the latter perhaps gets a little reckless the longer the fight goes. In the early Rounds I do think Charlo will want to keep control of things and not allow himself to fall into the Rosario rhythm or the fight he wants, but instead frustrating his opponent and exposing any mistakes made.

Eventually I do think Charlo will be able to get himself into a position where he is moving forward and imposing himself on Rosario and he should be able to put the punches together to force the corner or the referee to make a decision. It will take a bit of time to just start timing Rosario and I think that is why Charlo may have to wait until the Championship Rounds to Unify and perhaps end the night as the only one of the Twins with their straps having suffered an upset loss to Tony Harrison and needing to reclaim his titles before.

MY PICKS: Charlie Edwards Between 6-10 @ 6.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Hosea Burton to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Josh Taylor Between 5-8 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Mairis Briedis-Yuniel Dorticos Fight to go the Distance? NO @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniel Roman Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)\
Brandon Figueroa Between 1-6 @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
John Riel Casimero Between 1-6 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sergiy Derevyanchenko Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Jermell Charlo Between 7-12 @ 3.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)