The fortune of being at Wimbledon on Day 8 of The Championships means this thread is out a little later than hoped, although well before the Quarter Finals are to begin.
Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev over 38.5 games: The two 2024 Men's Grand Slam winners are on course for another huge meeting at a major, but both have tough Quarter Final matches to negotiate on Tuesday.
It is the World Number 1 and top Seed who will be given the opportunity to play on Centre Court, but Jannik Sinner is going to be well aware of the test he is facing when going up against Daniil Medvedev.
The Italian needed to come from two sets down to beat Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open Final earlier this year and that does mean he has beaten this opponent five times in a row since losing the first six pro matches against the World Number 5.
In the main, Jannik Sinner has been the superior player in those wins, but he has rarely had things as easy as he did when losing just three games against Daniil Medvedev at the Miami Masters in March. Three of the other four wins have all been in matches which have needed to go the distance, while the exception in that time was a match won by Sinner in straight sets and both being in tie-breakers.
Both of these players have been serving very well this week and that is likely going to be very important to the final outcome of this Quarter Final.
Unsurprisingly the two players have both had some issues on the return of serve on this surface and the feeling is that both Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will be looking to get on the front foot behind strong serving.
Jannik Sinner has the edge when it comes to the head to head in recent meetings with the Italian holding 89% of his service games compared with Daniil Medvedev's 79% mark and he will have the mental edge having gotten the better of this opponent as often as he has over the last several months.
The layers are expecting the top Seed to progress in straight sets, but Daniil Medvedev is playing well enough to give Jannik Sinner something to think about. Despite the losses piling up against this opponent, Medvedev has found a way to win sets and he can at least help combine for enough games to surpass this total games line set.
Carlos Alcaraz-Tommy Paul over 38.5 games: The defending Champion has not looked himself in the last couple of Rounds, but Carlos Alcaraz is one of the top players in the world and the layers do not want to take too many risks in opposing him.
That means the Spaniard is a pretty strong favourite to beat Tommy Paul in the Wimbledon Quarter Final, even if the latter won at Queen's Club and looks to be getting stronger and stronger.
You do have to take into account the fact that Tommy Paul has enjoyed a decent draw to work his way into the last eight, but respect has to be given for the way he has won his last couple of matches. The win over Alexander Bublik is perhaps most impressive in the Third Round and Tommy Paul continues to serve at a very high level on the grass courts.
He is going to need to bring more of the same onto the court in this Quarter Final as he looks to beat Carlos Alcaraz and reach the second Grand Slam Semi Final in his own career.
Tommy Paul has to be playing with plenty of confidence having last been seen winning at Queen's Club before the four wins under his belt at Wimbledon. The American has won at least 70% of service points played in each of those wins and Tommy Paul has to be encouraged by the fact that Carlos Alcaraz has looked a little unsure of his own returning game in the last couple of Rounds.
It has put some pressure on Alcaraz, although the defending Champion has the resiliency to come through the tough moments.
He struggled in the Fourth Round win over Ugo Humbert and Carlos Alcaraz could really find this Quarter Final a struggle if he is not able to pick up his level.
That has been seen in previous matches against Tommy Paul with both players beating the other twice with all four matches being played on a hard court. The numbers are remarkably similar for both Paul and Carlos Alcaraz and this may be another match that is competitive and perhaps needing at least four sets to decide a winner.
There is every chance that Tommy Paul could earn the upset in this match, but the better approach looks to be backing this one to go longer than the layers think.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Daniil Medvedev Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz-Tommy Paul Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Emma Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 16-15, - 1.76 Units (62 Units Staked, - 2.84% Yield)
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