Ever since the draw at the French Open, I have had a feeling that Rafael Nadal would find a way to return to Roland Garros and beyond the Olympic Games.
Losing to Alexander Zverev in a competitive match might have felt a little better for Nadal and his fans when noting that the same player reached the French Open Final and was actually leading 2-1 in sets against Carlos Alcaraz.
Injury is tough to deal with from a mental point of view and Rafael Nadal will have to show a real willingness to battle through some of the pain if he is going to have one more run. He is playing in Paris at less than 100%, but the second set performance against Novak Djokovic will have just acted as a reminder of how close Nadal is to being able to challenge the top players on the Tour.
It would be a shame if his last two appearances at Roland Garros were the defeats suffered to Zverev and Djokovic, although it is better than losing to players who would not have competed with Rafael Nadal at his very best. At least those two players can say they have stood up to Nadal at his best on the clay, but the feeling remains that the Spaniard may not be quite ready to call time on his career.
His attention will turn to the Doubles Tournament the rest of the way and Novak Djokovic will continue on his path towards securing a first Gold Medal to complete his collection of trophies/medals as a tennis player.
A day of rest before the Third Round will help Djokovic, who has clearly not operating at full strength, while the draw is panning out pretty well for the former World Number 1. The main threat is still going on the other side of the draw in Carlos Alcaraz, at least at the time of writing, but Djokovic has to be feeling pretty good about his chances in Paris this week.
The women's event will already get into the Third Round action on Tuesday with the entire Round played ahead of the Wednesday Quarter Final matches.
Players will certainly begin to think about winning a Medal for their nation with two wins under their belts, but the matches look much more competitive now and this is a test for all still involved in this tournament.
Mariano Navone + 4.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: The Olympic Games is the pinnacle for so many sports, but you cannot really say the same for tennis.
It is a reason that so many players have been willing to skip the event in order to prepare for the US Open, while others have arrived late in Paris after deciding to play tournaments to build up Ranking points. One of those late arrivals is Lorenzo Musetti who reached the Final in Umag to continue what has been an impressive summer following the French Open.
Most would expect his best results to be produced on the clay courts, but the Italian reached the Semi Final in Stuttgart on the grass and followed up with a Runners Up finish at Queen's Club before an impressive Semi Final run at Wimbledon. Confidence is clearly high right now and the performances in Umag will have just reminded Lorenzo Musetti of his capabilities on the clay courts after a pretty poor year on the surface.
In saying that, it should be noted that Lorenzo Musetti reached the Final of a couple of Challenger events around the early defeats at the Madrid and Rome Masters. He pushed Novak Djokovic to five sets in losing to the former World Number 1 in the Third Round at Roland Garros, and the run to the Final in Umag last week and the win over Gael Monfils in the First Round here will give Musetti plenty of belief.
He is looking to earn a measure of revenge over Mariano Navone who beat Musetti in the Final of the Challenger event played in Cagliari in early May.
Mariano Navone had a solid win over Nuno Borges in the First Round at the Olympic Games, and won that title in Cagliari as mentioned. However, the last couple of months have been littered with a lot more defeats than victories and that will have knocked some of the confidence, even if a couple of the losses were in competitive matches.
Like many from Argentina, Mariano Navone is very comfortable on the clay courts and that will certainly help him in this Second Round match. He has a 5-4 record on the clay when facing an opponent Ranked inside the top 50 in 2024, and that win over Lorenzo Musetti in Cagliari will certainly fuel the belief of earning an upset.
Lorenzo Musetti is playing the superior tennis of the two players since the French Open, but Navone can certainly force him to dig deep to earn a place in the Third Round the latter looks to be given enough games to be worth backing.
Camila Osorio + 4.5 games v Danielle Collins: Being a successful Junior player and being able to bring that game to the pro Tour is always a tough challenge and that has certainly been the case for Camila Osorio.
The Colombian had reached as high as Number 33 in the World Rankings a little over two years ago, but it has been a difficult twelve months and she has dropped down to World Number 83. She will be inspired to represent her nation at the Olympic Games and Camila Osorio has produced a couple of solid wins over higher Ranked opponents in each of the last two Rounds.
Those wins have to give Camila Osorio belief in her tennis and it does feel like she is being overlooked in this Third Round match.
Danielle Collins is in her final year on the Tour and finishing with an Olympic Medal would be a massive achievement, but the American is not exactly at her best on the clay courts. The First Round win over Laura Siegemund ended prematurely with injury meaning the German had to retire mid-match, while Danielle Collins came through in three sets against veteran Caroline Wozniacki on Monday.
The American did reach win the title in Charleston and the Semi Final in Rome, while she was also a Runner Up in Strasbourg. It has comfortably been her most productive year on the clay courts, which makes Danielle Collins a threat in this draw, but she does not always make her own life as easy as it could be.
Much of that is down to the fact that Collins can be very aggressive on the court and going for her shots can lead to more errors. On a surface where patience can be so important, Danielle Collins has perhaps not always had the right approach to matches and someone like Camila Osorio can extract the mistakes with her ability to move around the court.
The reality is that Danielle Collins should win the match, but covering this big mark may be tough for her if Camila Osorio maintains the form shown in the last couple of Rounds. At the very least Osorio can take a set and that may be enough to move into a position to keep this one close enough to make the handicap start a telling one.
You have to respect the fact that Collins has the tennis to blitz past anyone, but Camila Osorio is a potential banana skin and one that should be afforded more respect of her own.
MY PICKS: Mariano Navone + 4.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Camila Osorio + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Olympic Games Update: 5-3, + 2.68 Units (16 Units Staked, + 16.75% Yield)
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