It is Semi Final day on Thursday with both Ladies last four matches played on the same day.
The tournament has reached the business end and the third Grand Slam of the season is ready to be handed out.
Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 games v Donna Vekic: Despite having a longer career in the limelight, Donna Vekic is going to be the more inexperienced player in this surprising Wimbledon Semi Final from the bottom half of the Ladies tournament.
With a career best World Ranking of Number 19, Donna Vekic has perhaps not reached the kind of level that most tipped for her when she broke through onto the WTA Tour. She is only 28 years old now, but Donna Vekic played in the US Open Qualifiers all the way back in 2012 and her first main draw match at a Grand Slam a few months later at the Australian Open in 2013.
Injuries haven't always helped, but Vekic has perhaps struggled mentally when she has put decent runs together at the biggest events. The Croatian has made it through to her first Grand Slam Semi Final this week having previously reached just a couple of Quarter Finals, while it is quite amazing to note that Donna Vekic has never made the Quarter Final in any of the WTA 1000 events that are played throughout the year.
Her opponent in this Semi Final is a late bloomer on the Tour, but Jasmine Paolini is going to be playing with the confidence of a player that reached the French Open Final last month. Some fortune has been behind this run, most notably in her Fourth Round win over Madison Keys who picked up an injury while leading 5-2 in the third set, but Jasmine Paolini showed her class by completely dominating Emma Navarro in the Quarter Final.
This is a different kind of challenge against a player like Donna Vekic who can serve big and put some huge groundstrokes together- it will be a similar kind of match as the one that Paolini faced against Madison Keys.
Just like Keys, Donna Vekic can go through moments where the radar is out of sync leading to unforced errors and she will know that Jasmine Paolini is likely going to bring a consistent brand of tennis to the court.
You also have to factor in the amount of time Vekic has spent on the court in the last few days with each of the last three matches needing three sets and two of them being played into a third hour.
Jasmine Paolini has won two of the three previous matches between the players and both wins have been on a hard court, which should give her a solid mental edge. The most recent match between the players came last year in Canada and Paolini edged a tight first set before pulling away and there is a feeling that something similar may happen in this Semi Final.
There will be tension in the air considering how much is on the line, but Jasmine Paolini's confidence is at a super-high level right now and that is important. We saw moments in the Quarter Final win over Lulu Sun that Donna Vekic is still prone to feeling that pressure and Paolini's recent French Open run might just stand her in good stead as she looks to make it through to back to back Grand Slam Finals.
Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 games v Elena Rybakina: The two previous meetings have both ended in Barbora Krejcikova wins over Elena Rybakina, so that will help, but it is still a big ask to beat the 2022 Wimbledon Champion on Centre Court in the 2024 Semi Finals.
She snapped a losing run to get the better of Jelena Ostapenko in the Quarter Final and Barbora Krejcikova was able to serve very efficiently. This has been an aspect of her tennis that has improved after the struggles of the first couple of Rounds and it is vital for the former French Open Champion to make sure she looks after this side of her game.
In the first two Rounds, Barbora Krejcikova was winning fewer than 60% of her service points and she was very fortunate to get through those two matches.
Since then, Krejcikova has won at least 70% of her service points in each of the three matches played at Wimbledon and she has faced just eight Break Points in those three wins compared with twenty-two in the first two matches combined.
Serving well is one thing, but keeping Elena Rybakina on the back-foot is key.
We have seen the former Champion growing in matches as she has been allowed to really push through her groundstrokes on the return and Elena Rybakina has been freed up by her own big serve.
Trying to get enough of those serves back into play will be a significant challenge for Barbora Krejcikova who did have some struggles getting into the Jelena Ostapenko games in the Quarter Final. Unlike the Latvian, Elena Rybakina is not as wasteful with some of her rally balls and will not give away some of the games in a manner that Ostapenko can be prone to do.
Elena Rybakina is really looking after her serve in this tournament and that is why she is a clear favourite to win the Wimbledon title for a second time in three years. Even in the two losses to this opponent, Elena Rybakina has not had too many issues when it comes to the serve and that is likely going to be key for her again.
There is also the additional factor of Barbora Krejcikova playing in the Ladies Doubles this week as well as the Singles, and that has meant playing twice on Wednesday, just twenty-four hours before this big Semi Final.
We do know that Barbora Krejcikova is used to playing both Singles and Doubles in a Grand Slam tournament so it should not be a major problem, but this is already a tough match for her. It would be a surprise if Krejcikova is able to go all the way and earn the upset, but she should be competitive enough and the Czech player is perhaps being a little underrated in this Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 18-19, - 6.62 Units (74 Units Staked, - 8.95% Yield)
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