Featured post

Boxing Picks 2024- Israil Madrimov vs Terence Crawford (Saturday 3rd August)

July is usually a good time to have a break in the Boxing season, although the reimagining of the sport does mean we are more spoiled as fan...

Saturday 13 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 14 Pick 2024- Men's Final (Sunday 14th July)

The attention of the nation might already have turned to the Euro 2024 Final, but tennis fans will at least have the opportunity to lead into that game by watching the Final of the Men's event at Wimbledon.

It looks like being a really good Final twelve months after Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic met in a five set classic in SW19 and both are going to be feeling good about their chances of success having eased through the Semi Final matches on Friday.

The tournament comes to a close, but the attention will quickly turn to the Olympic Games later this month before the players hop across the pond and prepare for the upcoming US Open which begins at the end of August as is traditional.

We should have some real interest in the Olympic Games with that tournament potentially being the last for Rafael Nadal on the famous courts of Roland Garros, while Andy Murray is another hoping to be fit enough to compete as a Singles player for the final time having missed Wimbledon to his own frustration.


The new Ladies Champion at Wimbledon is Barbora Krejcikova as we have yet another surprising winner of the tournament on the WTA side of things.

She now has as many Grand Slams as Aryna Sabalenka and more than both Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina, which is a real surprise, and Barbora Krejcikova will be heading back into the top ten of the World Rankings on Monday. It might give the former French Open Champion a chance to take some momentum into the Olympic Games back on the clay courts, but for now the Czech player will enjoy becoming Wimbledon Champion as her mentor Jana Novotna had managed to do in her career too.

Now the attention will turn to the big Men's Final between top of the top three players in the World and by the end one of the players will be holding two of the four Grand Slam titles.


Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic over 40.5 games: Twelve months ago, Carlos Alcaraz reached the Final at Wimbledon in somewhat surprising fashion considering he had been beaten relatively early at the French Open. He was the Queen's Champion, which is always a good indicator of the kind of successes a player can have at Wimbledon, but Alcaraz was the underdog against Novak Djokovic, the seven time Champion.

The Rematch is played this Sunday and this time it is the defending Champion Carlos Alcaraz set as the favourite against the former World Number 1.

A lot of Spanish fans will have eyes on this Wimbledon Final before the Euro 2024 Final is played later in the evening and they will be keen to see a Double. Despite not finding his best tennis consistently, Carlos Alcaraz has shown he has the character to come through some difficult moments in his run to the Wimbledon Final.

There is also a real feeling that Carlos Alcaraz has come through the tougher half of the draw with three wins over top 16 Ranked opponents, while the highest Ranked player Novak Djokovic has beaten is the World Number 15 Holger Rune.

Carlos Alcaraz will be the first to admit that even then, his level will have to be picked up if he is going to get the better of Novak Djokovic for a second time in a row at Wimbledon. His serving numbers have really not been up to the standard expected on a grass court and that is going to be tested by arguably the greatest return player in the history of the sport.

The Novak Djokovic return numbers have perhaps not been as strong as we have come to expect, but that might have something to do with a far more aggressive approach taken through this tournament. The knee is not one that Djokovic wants to have to take into long rallies as often as he has been known to do, and that aggression has led to more mistakes and looking to end points quicker than normal.

It is something that will likely have been noted by the Alcaraz team and they will be keen to not give too much away to Djokovic and force him into those rallies that the seven time Champion has been looking to avoid.

One area where Novak Djokovic has had more success is behind his serve with his follow up shot to that opening one looking to get into position to end points as soon as possible. His numbers have been strong throughout his run to the Final and even Lorenzo Musetti struggled to test Djokovic in the manner he would have hoped on this side of his tennis.

Novak Djokovic has only dropped serve five times throughout the fortnight at Wimbledon, whereas Carlos Alcaraz dropped serve five times in just his Third Round match. This might be key to the outcome of this match, as could the fact that Novak Djokovic has won the last two matches against the Spaniard since losing the Wimbledon Final in 2023.

Matches between the players have been intense, but Novak Djokovic has had the edge on the service numbers.

However, some of those numbers are influenced by the match at Roland Garros in 2023 when Carlos Alcaraz completely cramped up under the tension of the occasion. He is a much stronger player now and this has all of the makings of another Wimbledon epic.

There will be plenty of fans hoping the match is perhaps not quite as intense as the almost five hours spend on court last season (with the fear it would potentially begin to encroach towards the Euro 2024 Final kick off), but another four setter has to be the minimum expectation.

Last season there were two sets that ended in 6-1 scores, which could make it hard to cover the total line in this one if it does indeed conclude in four sets.

With the way both Alcaraz and Djokovic are playing, it would be a surprise if we do see those one-sided sets again, especially after their battle at Cincinnati last August.

Novak Djokovic perhaps looks an appealing underdog, but he has not really bettered too many of his rivals so far this season and this is a big step up compared with previous opponents played.

Being slightly more battle-hardened should aid Carlos Alcaraz, but the real expectation is for another very competitive match between players from different generations. They should both contribute to a strong Final in which both players will win a set and that should put this match well on the way to surpass the total games line in this one.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz-Novak Djokovic Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 21-21, - 5.44 Units (84 Units Staked, - 6.48% Yield)

No comments:

Post a Comment