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Tuesday 2 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 3 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 3rd July)

Everyone wants to be able to finish a career on their own terms and that is especially the case for athletes and even more so when it comes to the individual sports.

Unlike Boxing, we don't see our heroes beaten down in the same manner as a fighter who goes on too long, but it doesn't make it any easier for Tennis players to be able to accept their own mortality.

Andy Murray has made it clear for several months that this is going to be his last year on the Tour as his body has failed to shake off the injuries that would have allowed to compete as he would like. He made it clear that it will either be at Wimbledon or at the Olympic Games when time would need to be called, but a cruel twist of fate meant Murray picked up an injury at Queen's Club and ultimately that has meant he is not going to play the Singles tournament for the last time.

A two time former Wimbledon Champion, Andy Murray is not the only loved player that has failed to be able to leave this tournament on his own terms.

Ultimately that is the issue with Tennis- you cannot make any plans when an injury in the later stages of a career are that much more impactful.

There is no way Roger Federer would have wanted his last memory on Centre Court being on the end of bagel at the end of a straight sets defeat to Hubert Hurkacz, while seven time Wimbledon Champion Pete Sampras was beaten in the Second Round on Court Two in what turned out to be his last appearance here.

At least Sampras was able to win the US Open a couple of months later and he eventually decided he had nothing left in the tank so could end on a 'high', although without the celebrations that accompanied the likes of Serena Williams.


This was always the issue with Andy Murray putting a final end date on his time on the Tour, unlike Rafael Nadal who continues to insist he is unsure if he has played his last match at the French Open.

It is a real disappointment for the fans, who would have wanted to show their appreciation for Andy Murray's efforts, although they will have another opportunity when he lines up next to brother Jamie for the Men's Doubles.

Maybe there is still room for a perfect sign off at Wimbledon after all!


Day 3 moves into the Second Round of the tournament and that means the top half of the Men's draw and the bottom half of the Ladies draw are in action again.

Aryna Sabalenka's late withdrawal has really opened the bottom half up and it would not be a surprise if we are to get a surprising Finalist once again.

Coco Gauff will be the clear favourite to plow her way through the draw, but she has suffered some upsets on the surface and it really could be any of a handful of players that take advantage.

The late withdrawal has certainly hurt the draw with the Ladies top half looking extremely loaded in comparison and that is a shame.

However, it is also an opportunity for players to have a big impact at the third Grand Slam of the season and also means there is a new pressure that many will be dealing with in anticipation of having a strong run.

The Men's draw is largely intact in the top half, but there is also one mouthwatering Second Round match coming up on Day 3 which should be on a big show court for the fans to enjoy.


Coco Gauff - 6.5 games v Anca Alexia Todoni: She may have admitted to feeling some nerves ahead of the First Round match at Wimbledon having lost in the opening Round twelve months ago, but you would not have guessed that was the case for Coco Gauff.

A dominant First Round win saw the World Number 2 through to the next Round and the withdrawal of Aryna Sabalenka has certainly opened the bottom half of the draw.

Coco Gauff will not want to think too far ahead and leave herself vulnerable to an upset, but it would be a surprise if she is not able to make the second week at Wimbledon again. That was the outcome in her first two appearances at Wimbledon in 2019 when announcing herself to a wider public and in 2021, although Coco Gauff has been disappointingly beaten in the last couple of years before the Fourth Round.

She has already reached the Semi Final at the first two Grand Slams of the season having won the US Open last year, and Coco Gauff has to believe that is the least she should achieve at Wimbledon.

Next up is young Romanian Anca Alexia Todoni, the World Number 142 who is set for a new career best World Ranking at the end of this tournament. Four wins in a row, three in Qualifiers, will be a boost for Todoni who is playing in just her second grass court tournament, but this is a considerable step upwards in terms of level of competition.

For starters Anca Alexia Todoni has beaten four players who are all Ranked outside the top 100, and she has yet to face a top 50 Ranked opponent.

There is some potential here when you think Anca Alexia Todoni is 6-1 against top 100 Ranked opponents, although the majority of those matches have been on the clay courts. This time she will be playing on a big show court and against a player who has the qualities to add to the Grand Slam won at the US Open and Coco Gauff should make that tell in this match.

It is a big handicap mark, but Coco Gauff is capable of winning a set with a couple of breaks of serve more than Anca Alexia Todoni and that should put her in a position to cover even with a more competitive second set. The American will want to just remind the rest of the bottom half of the Ladies draw that she is the player to beat without Aryna Sabalenka in the draw and Gauff can win well.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Yafan Wang: The type of tennis that Madison Keys is able to play is always going to make her a threat on the faster surfaces and she has had plenty of successes on the grass courts. Twelve months ago she was a Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon having won the title in Eastbourne, while she was a Semi Finalist in Eastbourne prior to this Grand Slam beginning.

In saying all that, Madison Keys might be a touch disappointed with the competitiveness of the First Round win over Martina Trevisan, who is a clay court specialist.

Ultimately the key, pardon the pun, is winning and the American will believe the bottom half of the draw is very much open for her to have a really deep run at Wimbledon again.

There are one or two challengers in her section, but Madison Keys has to believe she can at least reach the Quarter Final where the likelihood is that Coco Gauff will be waiting.

However, to do that, Madison Keys has to just knuckle down and she will not want to overlook Yafan Wang who won thirteen grass court matches in 2023.

This year has been more challenging for Yafan Wang who had lost all three matches prior to Wimbledon before beating Anna Karolina Schmiedlova in the First Round. It was a real battle for Yafan Wang who had lost all six grass court sets played prior to the third Grand Slam of the season and so there is still a real gap to bridge to someone as comfortable on this surface as Madison Keys.

Getting enough first serves in play will at least put Madison Keys under some pressure, but the real key to the outcome of this Second Round match is how well Yafan Wang is able to return. In her three matches on grass last month, Wang was only able to win 32% of return points played and she could be put under immense pressure by Madison Keys, which may lead to scoreboard pressure to build up.

When these players met on a hard court back in September 2018, it was Yafan Wang's inability to get her teeth into the Madison Keys serve that saw the American come through with a comfortable win. While things have changed in the almost six years since they last met, Yafan Wang is perhaps still vulnerable to the big serving that Madison Keys can produce and that may see the World Number 13 come away with a relatively comfortable win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Juncheng Shang: It was perhaps a tougher First Round win than expected by the layers, but Grigor Dimitrov was pretty comfortable all things considered.

He is going to be favoured in this Second Round match and will be looking to build on the performance against Dusan Lajovic.

Limited grass court matches in preparation for Wimbledon can be a concern for some players, but Grigor Dimitrov is very experienced on the surface and has all of the tennis tools needed to be effective. At his best, the serve can be a very dangerous weapon and Dimitrov has the movement and balance to really hurt opponents on the return.

All of that will be needed to see off Juncheng Shang, the World Number 91 who has put plenty of grass court wins on the board over the last month.

The 19 year old left hander was a straight sets winner in the First Round and did reach the Quarter Final in a Challenger in Nottingham before doing the same at Eastbourne in an ATP tournament in the lead up to Wimbledon. Juncheng Shang suffered a competitive defeat to Taylor Fritz, although he will appreciate the fact that Grigor Dimitrov is a more dangerous return player on the surface.

The serve has been effective for Juncheng Shang, which will make him dangerous, but he was pretty comfortably beaten by Billy Harris and Jacob Fearnley in matches played over the last month. Those defeats are difficult to shake off and the feeling is that Grigor Dimitrov might have a bit too much all around quality on the grass for a young player who is still finding his feet on the Tour.

Nothing ever comes easily for Dimitrov and it will be important to make a strong start to prevent Juncheng Shang from building his way into the match through increased confidence.

If he can do that, the Bulgarian should have enough to wear down this opponent on his way through to the Third Round on Friday.


Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini over 38.5 games: As soon as the draw for the Wimbledon tournament was made, the match that stood out as a potentially huge one for the Second Round involved two Italians right at the top of the draw.

It is Jannik Sinner who arrives at Wimbledon as the World Number 1 and top Seed in the draw, but he will be well aware of the quality and the threat that his compatriot will pose. Matteo Berrettini may not be in the Seeded positions, but this is a player who has loved playing on the grass and has won titles and reached the Wimbledon Final before in his career.

Injuries and a loss of form have been an issue, but Berrettini was impressive in his First Round win and he will be very comfortable playing on Centre Court. He had little grass court preparation last year, but Matteo Berrettini was still able to reach the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and took the opening set against eventual Champion Carlos Alcaraz before going down in four sets.

This time around, Matteo Berrettini has reached the Final in Stuttgart before a relatively disappointing early loss in Halle, but he continues to showcase grass court pedigree that made him a dangerous floater in this draw. Serving well will be the key for Berrettini who has held 94% of service games played on the grass before Wimbledon and he will need to find a way to put Jannik Sinner under pressure.

Winning the title in Halle will have given Sinner real belief and he did reach the Semi Final here last season when losing a much more competitive match than the straight sets defeat to Novak Djokovic would have suggested.

The World Number 1 was a Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon in 2022 before the Semi Final run in 2023 and Jannik Sinner will certainly be targeting to go at least one better this time around. He did surprisingly drop a set against Yannick Hanfmann in the First Round, and Sinner will know that he needs to just increase the level of the return if he is going to win a Grand Slam here.

Serving has not been a problem with 97% of games held in winning the title in Halle and that is likely going to be key for Jannik Sinner to just contain the threat Matteo Berrettini is able to bring onto the court.

Jannik Sinner did beat Matteo Berrettini in straight sets on the hard courts of the Canadian Masters last August, but the latter will feel it came down to the Break Point performances on the day.

Matteo Berrettini was able to win 68% of service points played in that defeat and the grass courts are expected to aid him that much more.

The former Finalist does have all the tools needed to win at least a set in this match and Jannik Sinner will be plenty confident too so there is a feeling that this Second Round contest is every bit as good as anticipated.

If both players are able to win at least one set as expected, the two players should serve well enough to move into a position to surpass the total games line set.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner-Matteo Berrettini Over 38.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jasmine Paolini - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 4-4, - 0.30 Units (16 Units Staked, - 1.88% Yield)

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