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Sunday 28 July 2024

Paris Olympics Tennis Day 3 Picks 2024 (Monday 29th July)

Almost the entirety of the Olympic Games First Round matches were played on Sunday and there was some very good news for fans of the sport.

One, Rafael Nadal was able to play the Singles after concerns about an injury, and two, he won.

This means Rafael Nadal vs Novak Djokovic has been set for the Second Round on the famous French Open grounds and there is every chance that this will be the 'last dance' between two of the all-time greats.

The Second Round match is expected to be played on Tuesday so that is something for everyone to look forward to, although others in the draw will be hoping to make the sporting headlines of their own when the Second Round gets underway on Day 3 at the Paris Olympics.

With the majority of the First Round matches concluded on Sunday, some of the markets for the matches to be played on Monday may not be put together until just a few hours before the players are expected to take the court. Any selections from later in the day may have to be placed in this thread on Monday morning if those markets become available.

Saturday proved to be a tough opening day for the selections, but two winners on Sunday have at least recovered some of the losses. Hopefully that momentum can carry through into Day 3 with the selections below.


Surprisingly, since writing this little passage out, it has been announced that Djokovic vs Nadal will be played on Monday and that should only strengthen the position of the former in his bid to 'upset' the long-time dominant clay court Champion.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Rafael Nadal: It has been a little over two years since Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal last met on the Tour and it ended with a win for Nadal on the clay courts of Roland Garros. The Quarter Final victory at the French Open saw Rafael Nadal go on and win a fourteenth title in Paris and it was no surprise that he was a big part of the Opening Ceremony at the Olympic Games.

A month after winning the second Grand Slam of 2022, Rafael Nadal picked up an injury at Wimbledon and his career has been in jeopardy ever since. Earlier this season he arrived at the French Open under another injury cloud and was beaten in the First Round in what many believe is his last appearance at that Grand Slam, and a decision was made to focus on the Olympic Games on the same grounds where Nadal has stamped his mark on history.

Fourteen French Open titles are almost certainly not going to be surpassed by a single player, but Rafael Nadal is not the player he once was and has been struggling for consistency this season. Earlier this month Nadal reached the Final in Bastad in a clay court warm up tournament after missing Wimbledon, but the opponents faced are not up to the level of Novak Djokovic and bridging the gap will be tough.

This is a rivalry of the ages and the players are meeting for an incredible SIXTIETH time on Monday in the Second Round at the Olympic Games, and this is the twenty-ninth match on the clay courts. Unsurprisingly Rafael Nadal has won twenty of those matches on the surface on which he has been most comfortable, but Novak Djokovic has produced a couple of wins over the Spaniard at Roland Garros so there won't be too much intimidation.

He will respect Nadal, but Novak Djokovic is coming off a run to the Wimbledon Final and that will give him confidence as he chases a first Gold Medal. This has been a tough season for Djokovic and he is going to have to serve very well to get the better of even a compromised Nadal.

The scheduling is certainly not ideal for Rafael Nadal having played a tough match on Sunday having competed in the Doubles the previous evening. He has played a couple of matches since Novak Djokovic coasted through his own First Round match on Saturday and there is a feeling that Nadal may just have a few issues keeping his level as high as it will be needed.

Rafael Nadal is just 6-5 on the clay courts against top 100 Ranked opponents this season and has suffered some one-sided defeats.

With an opponent who will play him like he did when Nadal was at his very best, it could be a really tough Second Round match for the Spaniard. It would be so good to see Rafael Nadal find a way to get back to his best, but Novak Djokovic is still very much near his top level and the Serb can wear down his old rival and eventually cover this handicap mark set.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 games v Daniel Evans: It was always going to be a summer in which retirement would be confirmed for Andy Murray and the body has prevented him from playing Singles at Wimbledon and the Olympic Games as hoped. Instead he is playing in the Doubles with Daniel Evans in a bid to win another Gold Medal and Evans has admitted that he is perhaps more focused on ensuring he is ready to compete for Murray, rather than having big ambitions to win a Medal as a Singles player.

It is perhaps a tall task to win a Medal anyway, especially on the clay courts, and Daniel Evans has had a tough twelve months on the Tour with his World Ranking in danger of slipping out of the top 60.

This may mean Daniel Evans is thinking about his long-term plays in a career which has been one of overachievement all things considered. Perhaps the move onto the hard courts will allow Evans to finish this season with a flourish, but he has won just three of the ten matches played on the clay courts this season.

One of those wins was in the First Round at the Olympic Games, but Evans needed three sets to beat the World Number 384 and now faces a considerable step up in class.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will be pretty disappointed with his 2024 and his hopes of winning a Grand Slam title look that much slimmer since the emergence of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner at the top of the ATP Tour. It was Alcaraz who ended Stefanos Tsitsipas' time at the French Open in the Quarter Final, but the Greek player has won a title on the clay courts and is a much stronger player on the surface than Daniel Evans.

This season has been down on the numbers, especially behind serve, and Stefanos Tsitsipas also had to come through in three sets in the First Round despite heading into the opening match as a strong favourite.

It is a concern about his long-term prospects of winning a Medal at the Paris Olympics, but this is a match up that should suit Tsitsipas. He has beaten Daniel Evans in all four previous matches and that includes a couple of wins on the hard courts, while the clay is a domain that should be giving the higher Ranked player a significant edge.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has dominated the Daniel Evans serve on the clay courts, while he has won 72% of service points played. The last of the matches between these players was back in 2022 at the Paris Masters, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has had a significant edge all around and Daniel Evans may lack the motivation to change things around here.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 2-3, - 1.80 Units (10 Units Staked, - 18% Yield)

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