The sun was shining on Thursday, although it was perhaps windier than some of the tennis players would have hoped, and that has allowed Wimbledon to get back on track.
Andy Murray's time at the tournament took another step towards the exit door after his early defeat in the Men's Doubles and the Mixed Doubles is the only draw left for the two time former Singles Champion.
The organisers made sure there was a proper tribute video ready to go and a number of players were also welcomed onto court to offer Andy Murray his best as a top career moves into the final month before retirement is called.
Day 5 looks like it could be considerably wetter than the Thursday and that could be problematic, especially ahead of a potentially wet weekend. The Third Round could be hit hard with players having to play on consecutive days, and that could be an issue for those who have not been scheduled on the two main show courts.
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Jan-Lennard Struff: The Second Round win was much tougher than expected for Daniil Medvedev and he was in a bit of bother when trailing by a set and a break.
However, the World Number 5 has reached six Grand Slam Finals and also the Wimbledon Semi Final in his career and you can only do that by figuring out problems on the court. He showed all of that in the Second Round and Daniil Medvedev battled through, much like he tends to do on a week by week basis on the Tour.
Being one of the top players, Daniil Medvedev will tend to be scheduled to play on the show courts, but the feeling is that he prefers NOT to play on Centre Court. There is a belief that Centre is playing slower than Court One, although being on the main show court in SW19 may help in this case against a very dangerous opponent.
Jan-Lennard Struff almost cracked the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time in his career thirteen months ago, but he has fallen out of the Seeded positions these days. Injury has not helped, but a run to the Quarter Final in Halle where Struff was narrowly beaten by Jannik Sinner perhaps indicates that there is going to be a turnaround in the drop in World Rankings.
Nothing has been easy for Jan-Lennard Struff at Wimbledon in the first two Rounds, but he will have gained some confidence from winning matches. That helps in the tight moments, and there are likely going to be a few of those in this match against one of the top Seeds.
The serve is going to be a key weapon for both of these players, but you have to give Daniil Medvedev a significant edge on the return. Ultimately that could be key to the outcome of the match and in their previous eight matches on the Tour, it is Medvedev who has a real advantage when it comes to the numbers that lead to breaks of serve.
They have met twice on the grass courts too and both in 2021- Jan-Lennard Struff beat Daniil Medvedev in straight sets at Halle, but it was the latter who earned revenge with a four set win over the German here at Wimbledon in the First Round.
Once again, Daniil Medvedev has been able to hold a significant amount of games more than Jan-Lennard Struff in those two matches and that is likely going to be the case on Day 5 at The Championships.
Tie-breakers may be needed, but Daniil Medvedev can move into the second week at Wimbledon again with a win in three or four sets against a potentially dangerous opponent.
Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: There will be plenty of people thinking back to the 2022 US Open Semi Final played between Carlos Alcaraz and Frances Tiafoe which was won by the Spaniard in five sets.
He ended up winning his maiden Grand Slam at that event and Carlos Alcaraz has gone from strength to strength on the Tour, even if he arrives at Wimbledon as the World Number 3. At the moment Alcaraz holds both the French Open and Wimbledon titles, but defending the latter is all that is on the mind.
Peaking too early at a Grand Slam can be problematic and there is little doubt that Carlos Alcaraz is happy to work his way into the tournament. He had to get through two tough sets in his First Round win over the World Number 269 and Carlos Alcaraz needed to win a tie-breaker to take the first set in the Second Round before moving through the gears.
A match like this one should mean we see the defending Champion come out with a lot more focus right from the off and he will certainly appreciate the threat that Frances Tiafoe can bring to the court.
It has been a tough twelve months for the American who is in danger to slip further down the World Rankings and miss Seeding for the US Open coming up in August. Earlier this week, Frances Tiafoe made it clear that he feels he has been underperforming and losing to 'clowns', which would not have gone down very well with his fellow professionals, but he is not facing a circus act in this Third Round.
Prior to Wimbledon, Frances Tiafoe had only won two matches in the same tournament on two occasions in 2024 and that has seen him start the year as the World Number 16 and drop down to his current Number 29 mark.
To be fair to Frances Tiafoe, he has not played badly on the grass in the lead up to Wimbledon, but he has just lacked the confidence when the big moments have arrived within matches. The serve can be a big weapon when at his best, but Tiafoe has had difficulty on the return and that is likely to be exposed by Carlos Alcaraz.
Even in the five set win at the US Open a little under two years ago, Carlos Alcaraz dominated the numbers and actually won the match by a NINE game margin. It would not be a surprise to anyone if we need to see at least one Breaker in this Third Round match, especially if it is needed to be played under the roof with more rain expected in SW19, but eventually the feeling is that Carlos Alcaraz will create enough Break Points to be in a position to cover a big handicap mark.
Twelve months ago, Frances Tiafoe was well beaten in the Third Round at Wimbledon by Grigor Dimitrov and the defending Champion may just roll through the gears and wear down an opponent that may not have the confidence to stay with him.
Coco Gauff - 6.5 games v Sonay Kartal: Any player that is able to work through the Qualifiers and win two main draw matches at a Grand Slam deserves a lot of respect and Sonay Kartal is deserving of some of the extra attention she has earned at Wimbledon.
She began the tournament on the edge of dropping out of the top 300 in the World Rankings and there has been a real worry that the British player would have to think about calling time on her career. Despite the quality of tennis she can play, injuries have been a big factor that has prevented Sonay Kartal from putting some steam behind her performances and to find the consistency needed.
Even if Sonay Kartal was to lose on Day 5 at The Championships, she will be playing on a new career high World Ranking at the end of Wimbledon. There is still considerable work for Kartal to do if she is going to break into the top 100 and earning direct entry into Grand Slam events, from where you can build further, but for now the concentration has to be on playing for as long as possible at her home Grand Slam.
There was little doubt that this match would be placed on a show court, although Sonay Kartal may be a touch disappointed that Court One has been selected rather than Centre Court.
Despite that, Coco Gauff will offer a stiff challenge for the home hope and the performances in the first two Rounds have been ruthless. As mentioned in the last few days, Gauff likely cannot believe the opportunity in front of her in the bottom half of the Ladies draw and the World Number 2 is playing with the confidence that will make her very difficult to beat.
In the four sets won this week, Coco Gauff has dropped just six games and the only concern may be the little amount of Sonay Kartal that she or her team will have seen.
However, the American has shown that she can work things out pretty quickly and the level shown on the grass makes it very hard to believe Kartal can keep this one much competitive than the last two opponents Coco Gauff has faced have managed to do.
Sonay Kartal has played well, but she is going to need to serve at a very high level to put Coco Gauff under any pressure and the spotlight can sting when you are a player that is not used to being the focus of big crowds. The home crowd will make sure they get behind Kartal, but Coco Gauff is very popular at Wimbledon too and her level might be too high for a player that has massively overachieved by reaching the Third Round at Wimbledon this summer.
The handicap is a big one, but Coco Gauff has shown she is comfortable being a frontrunner and it has allowed her to motor through matches.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 13-7, + 8.24 Units (40 Units Staked, + 20.60% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment