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Wednesday, 3 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 4 Picks 2024 (Thursday 4th July)

The European 'summer' has not been the most impressive and both Grand Slams in Paris and London have been impacted by the poorer weather.

The forecast over the next few days will make the Wimbledon organisers a little nervous, especially if they are not willing to change the time they start matches on both Centre Court and Court One, the only two with roofs to keep matches ticking over.

Conditions are far from ideal for the players too with the quick changes between warm days and wet days changing how the courts are playing.

At least Day 4 looks nicer all around and will help to try and get the tournament back on schedule having see some First Round matches held back into Day 3 and the potential for some Second Round matches needed to be completed before the same players have to go out on Day 5 when the Third Round begins.


Alexander Zverev - 5.5 games v Marcos Giron: It was slightly odd to hear Alexander Zverev suggest he has played at Wimbledon in previous years with little expectation of having a long stay in the tournament.

This has perhaps contributed to a relatively poor record at this Grand Slam and especially considering we have seen Alexander Zverev play well enough in Halle to believe he should be more competitive on the grass courts. He has only reached the Fourth Round twice, but Zverev is playing in the bottom half of the draw and will be expecting to reach his first Quarter Final in SW19 at the very least.

He reached the French Open Final last month and was close to winning a maiden Grand Slam, and a run to the Semi Final in Halle means he has plenty of grass court tennis under the feet. Alexander Zverev was a comfortable First Round winner at Wimbledon and he will be considered a strong favourite to see off Marcos Giron, although some care has to be taken around this Second Round match.

The American is a solid, if unspectacular, grass court player and that means Marcos Giron will be confident of taking advantage of an opponent that is not reaching the level expected.

Marcos Giron reached the Quarter Final in Halle and he has held 90% of his service games played on the grass prior to this Grand Slam. He has upset Holger Rune at Wimbledon in the past too so this is not going to be an easy player to dismiss, especially after Marcos Giron found a way to come from a set behind to beat a British player in the First Round.

This will still feel like a step upwards for Marcos Giron, who has lost his sole previous match against Alexander Zverev. That was also in a Grand Slam event at the Australian Open, but the first two sets were incredibly competitive and we could see something similar here.

However, it was Alexander Zverev who eventually took full control of that First Round match in Melbourne in February 2021 and the German should have the serving prowess to keep Giron under pressure.

Alexander Zverev's break percentage in grass matches over the last month has been pretty disappointing, but scoreboard pressure can be built up in this Second Round match and the final scoreline might look like it was an 'easy' win for the World Number 4, even after an actual competitive match.


Holger Rune - 5.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: His first season on the grass was extremely forgettable, but Holger Rune knows he has the tennis to be dangerous on the surface and that is underlined by his run to the Quarter Final at Wimbledon in 2023.

Preparation for the tournament was pretty disappointing, although Rune was a very comfortable First Round winner and he is going to be expected to be too strong for Thiago Seyboth Wild.

The Brazilian is much happier on the clay courts, and that is the surface on which Thiago Seyboth Wild wins the majority of his numbers and certainly plays his best tennis. He has won matches on the grass courts, but finding the consistency on the surface has been beyond Seyboth Wild in the past and he has already invested plenty of himself to earn a spot in the Second Round at Wimbledon.

In the First Round, Thiago Seyboth Wild trailed home hope Paul Jubb by two sets and he was a couple of points away from defeat on a few occasions in the third set. Somehow he found a way to win the tie-breaker, but Thiago Seyboth Wild had to spend over four hours on court and the physical and emotional effort needed to win that First Round match may mean there is not a lot left in the tank.

Holger Rune will be looking to take advantage of that and at the same time continue his serene progress at Wimbledon ahead of bigger challenges in the draw.

His Fourth Round loss in Paris would have been a blow, but Holger Rune is still going to have enough all around tennis to believe he can get the better of this opponent. The expectation is that Rune will be able to get his teeth into a few more return games, as he did in the First Round, while the 21 year old is able to get the most out of his serve on this surface.

Thiago Seyboth Wild has nothing to lose and should be competitive early, but he might have been well beaten in the First Round if Jubb had converted his chances in the third set tie-breaker and Holger Rune is expected to be too good for him in this Second Round contest.


Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 sets v Luciano Darderi: Two Italian players have been playing in the Second Round at Wimbledon on Wednesday and two more will be facing off in the same Round, albeit this time on Thursday.

Jannik Sinner and Matteo Berrettini would have arrived at Wimbledon with genuine ambitions to win the title, but the same cannot really be said for Luciano Darderi.

The World Number 37 has had a fantastic year on the Tour and reached a new career high World Ranking mark last month, but playing on the grass courts is still a work in progress for Darderi. He will be inspired by the successes that some of his compatriots have had on the grass, but this may be something of a learning experience for him.

Lorenzo Musetti reached the Final at Queen's Club last month and he was also a Semi Finalist in Stuttgart- these runs have bettered his performances in 2023 when Musetti reached the Quarter Final at both of those events and he will certainly feel he can surpass the Third Round run at Wimbledon this time around.

It has been an inconsistent twelve months for Lorenzo Musetti who has slipped ten places in the World Rankings, although the runs over the last month have just reversed some of the slippage. Confidence is not a problem, but Musetti has just perhaps hit a wall after strong moves early in his career.

He came from a set down to win his First Round match, although it should be noted that Lorenzo Musetti's grass court numbers are not quite as good in 2024 as they were last year, despite the superior results this season. He is still playing at a good level though and it should be one that is too much for Luciano Darderi to handle.

Luciano Darderi certainly showed his character in winning his First Round match in five sets against a player that would have received plenty of support from the home crowd. However, beating the World Number 174 is a much different task to beating a Seeded player in the Second Round at Wimbledon and Lorenzo Musetti will be given further confidence having beaten his compatriot on a clay court in May.

The win was close on the scoreboard, but Lorenzo Musetti had a considerable edge in terms of the performance and he is the superior grass court player of the two.

While sets are expected to be competitive, Lorenzo Musetti should be able to find a way past his compatriot in three or four sets into the Third Round for a second year in a row.


Ons Jabeur - 4.5 games v Robin Montgomery: A two time Wimbledon Finalist, recent years have been difficult for Ons Jabeur in coming so close to winning a Grand Slam title but falling short. Losing Finals here in 2022 and 2023 hurt, especially the last defeat and the soon to be 30 year old may feel the window is potentially closing to become a Grand Slam Champion.

If Ons Jabeur had been in the bottom half of the draw, you would perhaps make her favourite to reach the Final in SW19 for a third time in a row.

However, she is unfortunately in the tougher top half of the section and Ons Jabeur has been struggling for some consistency on the court with injuries perhaps contributing to that. Two years ago she was the World Number 2, but this year Jabeur enters the tournament as the World Number 10, although this is a player that will have some aura when she enters the courts at Wimbledon and others may yet have to deal with that as much as Ons Jabeur herself.

A relatively easy win in the First Round will have given the Tunisian some confidence and her numbers had been impressive on the grass courts over the last month before an injury forced a mid-match withdrawal against Coco Gauff in Berlin.

It certainly suggests Ons Jabeur is still playing at a level that will be tough for Robin Montgomery to deal with and especially with her relative lack of experience of playing on this surface.

The 19 year old American is the current World Number 161, but Montgomery did reach the Quarter Final in a couple of grass court events in preparation for playing at Wimbledon. Those runs have given Robin Montgomery some confidence and enough to see her through three Qualifying Rounds before a First Round win, although it should be pointed out that the left hander has not beaten any opponent Ranked inside the top 100 at this Grand Slam.

She did manage to beat some of the top 100 Ranked players in the pre-Wimbledon tournaments, but this is a huge task for Robin Montgomery against someone who has enjoyed playing at this Grand Slam as much as Ons Jabeur.

That knowledge will certainly give Ons Jabeur the edge in this Second Round contest and the feeling is that she will put the pressure on Robin Montgomery to break her down, and eventually come through with some comfort.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 9-4, + 8.22 Units (26 Units Staked, + 31.62% Yield)

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