It has only been a little over three weeks since the second Grand Slam of the season was handed out to Iga Swiatek and Carlos Alcaraz.
There is still a demand for the grass court season to be expanded to put a little more distance between the French Open and Wimbledon, but we are where we are and Carlos Alcaraz will have the privilege of opening Centre Court on Day 1 having edged out Novak Djokovic for the title twelve months ago.
After winning in Paris, Carlos Alcaraz will be plenty confident in his chances of defending his title at Wimbledon, although there are still some vulnerabilities about this player on the grass.
Being the Number 3 Seed at Wimbledon means Carlos Alcaraz has been drawn in the same half of the draw as the World Number 1 Jannik Sinner and the Italian will certainly feel he has the grass court pedigree to have another deep run here. He was beaten in the Semi Final by Novak Djokovic last year and the Serb has recovered in time from the injury that forced a withdrawal at the French Open and will be in the bottom half of the draw.
These three players head the outright market in the Men's tournament and it is hard to find an easy player to oppose Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic when it comes to picking a winner on July 14th.
Out of the top three, the potential Matteo Berrettini Italian derby for Jannik Sinner looks a very dangerous early opponent and an upset in that one cannot be ruled out. They are due to meet in the Second Round if both win and that would be a very tough challenge for Sinner considering the grass court performances Matteo Berrettini continues to put on the board, even through injury issues.
Novak Djokovic's injury would raise concerns for those backing him, and the price is influenced by those concerns, but the draw could not have worked out much better.
He will be able to work his way into the tournament and Djokovic's grass court experience will make him very difficult to beat.
However, if you are looking for a surprise Finalist from the bottom half, someone like Hubert Hurkacz may offer a decent run for your money at 16-1, while the likes of Sebastian Korda (40-1) and Lorenzo Musetti (100-1) would also benefit from any early defeat or withdrawal for Novak Djokovic.
The French Open Champion, and defending Champion here, will have an impact in the Men's draw, but it feels different in the Ladies tournament.
Iga Swiatek has struggled to really get to grips with the grass and she is going to have to be at her very best from the opening ball with Sofia Kenin up first and challengers likely to line up behind the American.
It certainly makes it feel like the World Number 1 is a vulnerable second favourite to win the title in SW19, and the likes of Elena Rybakina, Ons Jabeur and Jessica Pegula may all believe they have the grass court capabilities to earn a spot in the Final from the top half of the draw.
Defending Champion Marketa Vondrousova is also in this half, but she was an unexpected winner in 2023 and it would be arguably a bigger surprise if she was able to retain the title.
If Jessica Pegula had not come up short in the business end of Grand Slam tournaments as often as she has, her 20-1 quotes would look incredibly big. The two time Runner Up Ons Jabeur is perhaps more appealing at 14-1 having overcome poor form to reach the Final here twelve months ago and her appreciation of the grass is unmatched by many others.
The favourite this week is Aryna Sabalenka in the bottom half of the draw, but it is hard to back a player who has won both Grand Slam titles in Melbourne and regular come up short in Quarter and Semi Finals at the other Slams.
There is no doubting the qualities of Sabalenka, and a potential Second Round match against Donna Vekic could be incredibly tough to negotiate.
Coco Gauff is the top Seed in the bottom half of the Ladies draw, but she has not been able to produce at Wimbledon since her breakthrough run in her first appearance here. The American will be grateful for a good looking draw early on, but she could face any of a number of tough opponents as we move into the second week and one who will be battle hardened.
You could argue that four of the last five Ladies Champions at Wimbledon have been surprising with the exception being top Seed Ashleigh Barty in 2021.
This year is another wide open draw and one that could produce another unexpected winner, but the layers are taking no real chances with the prices on offer.
Can Jasmine Paolini make 66-1 prices look too big in her bid to reach back to back Grand Slam Finals? She is in a good portion of the draw in what looks another intriguing Grand Slam for the WTA players after Iga Swiatek won the French Open as a very strong favourite.
Day 1 at Wimbledon is on Monday, unlike the Australian Open and French Open, and it is an honour for the defending Men's Champion to open Centre Court.
The Ladies Champion gets that privilege on Day 2 and so we know the top half of the Men's draw and the bottom half of the Ladies draw will be playing on the odd days.
Of course we no longer have Manic Monday next week and will have Day 7 tennis on Sunday, but the hope is that it will be another good tournament to steal some of the headlines from the Euro 2024 Finals.
The Australian Open was a really poor tournament for the Tennis Picks, but the French Open provided a solid return and backing that up is the key over the next two weeks.
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 games v Dusan Lajovic: Only three players in the Men's draw will begin as single digit prices at Wimbledon this week, but it is hard to overlook the current top three players in the World Rankings.
Others will be hoping for some upsets, although the top half of the draw looks stronger than the bottom half and that is where Grigor Dimitrov has landed.
It has felt his best chance to win a Grand Slam has passed some time ago, but the Bulgarian is inside the top nine places in the Outright Winner market. That looks plenty short to be perfectly honest, but Grigor Dimitrov can be backed to earn a place in the Second Round without having too many issues.
Covering big numbers on the grass courts is always a challenge, especially early in the tournament when the slickness of the surface is still being managed by the players. Big servers will certainly be able to rattle through the service games, but it really does feel like Dusan Lajovic is arriving in SW19 to pick up his cheque and will then turn this attention to the clay court summer.
This may be a harsh assessment, but Dusan Lajovic's lack of any grass court preparation does not make for good reading. Add in the fact that this Serb has barely won matches on the grass in recent years and the poor numbers he has produced, and you have to believe Grigor Dimitrov will have a considerable edge.
It has not been the most productive preparation for Wimbledon having won one match and lost another at Queen's Club, but Dimitrov has produced some strong tennis on the grass prior to that. A small sample cannot be something that you read too much into, while Grigor Dimitrov reached the Fourth Round here twelve months ago and just may have a bit too much know-how for his opponent when it comes to the surface.
Grigor Dimitrov has won two of the three previous matches against Dusan Lajovic, although none of those have been on a grass court. The World Number 10 has been much stronger behind serve on the head to head and the feeling is that Grigor Dimitrov will be able to do the same in this First Round match, while being able to move through the gears and ensure a relatively safe passage through to the next Round on Wednesday.
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Charles Broom: There are going to be a lot of headlines written for Andy Murray if he is able to play his Singles match at what is likely to be his last ever Wimbledon. During an era dominated by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, Murray won multiple Grand Slams and deserves respect.
Another veteran who was able to do the same is Stan Wawrinka who won Grand Slam titles in three of the four Slams played during the course of the year. The exception has been at Wimbledon where Wawrinka's best efforts came in consecutive years in 2014 and 2015 when reaching the Quarter Final.
Much like others of a wonderful era of tennis, Stan Wawrinka's time is coming to a close, although he continues to fight against Father Time and injury. These days he is close to slipping out of the top 100 of the World Rankings, which would mean needing Wild Cards or having to go through Qualifiers to reach the biggest events and you would wonder if Stan Wawrinka would be willing to keep going through that grind.
He might not leave Wimbledon with the same fanfare as Murray, but Stan Wawrinka deserves a lot of respect for his own achievements in the sport.
A First Round exit will not be the plan for the Swiss player, although he will have to deal with the home crowd as he prepares to face Charles Broom.
The twenty-six year old was given a Wild Card into the main draw at Wimbledon having produced some solid tennis during the grass court swing. The majority of the stronger results have been on the Challenger Tour, but that experience will certainly give Charles Broom hope, especially as Stan Wawrinka has decided to skip tournaments on the grass this summer.
However, in saying that, Charles Broom is Ranked outside the top 200 and that just underlines the tough nature of this match, even if the odds are much closer than anticipated.
It is a big show court on which this match has been placed and the feeling is that Stan Wawrinka still has enough motivation and ambition to win a match like this one. He reached the Third Round at Wimbledon twelve months ago without playing any grass court warm up events and Wawrinka was eventually undone by Novak Djokovic, which has no shame attached to it.
Stan Wawrinka may not be operating at the level that took him to three Grand Slam titles and World Number 3, but he is still consistent enough on the Tour to believe he can win this kind of match in three or four sets.
Lloyd Harris-Alex Michelsen Over 40.5 games: There are plenty of big names playing throughout the grounds at Wimbledon on Day 1 of the tournament with half of the First Round matches set to be completed.
Two unseeded players clash in this match, but it could be a back and forth tussle between Lloyd Harris and Alex Michelsen with both having the tools to feel they can win this kind of battle. They have also landed in a very appealing part of the draw, despite being in the same half as both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, and the winner of this match may very much battle their way through to the second week with a couple of vulnerable looking Seeds around them.
Lloyd Harris has played big matches at Wimbledon in the past and he has won three Qualifiers to earn his spot in the main draw. It has been a productive month on the grass during which time Harris has won a title, albeit at the Challenger level, and the confidence will certainly be there having won three matches last week.
There is not nearly the same amount of experience on this surface under Alex Michelsen's belt, but he is the higher Ranked of the two players which underlines the overall improvements being made. A couple of wins at Wimbledon may see the American set a new career high World Ranking mark for himself, and he will certainly feel a little better about the grass having put some wins on the board over the last couple of weeks.
Last year, Alex Michelsen did not play at Wimbledon, but was able to reach the Final in Newport in the week after the third Grand Slam of the season was played. The numbers have remained steady when comparing 2023 with 2024 as Michelsen has found a way to get his serve producing very well, although also struggling to cope with the kind of returning you need to put together on grass compared with the favoured hard courts.
Winning two Qualifying matches in Halle and then reaching the Quarter Final in Mallorca would have done Alex Michelsen the world of good, but he will also recognise the challenges that Lloyd Harris will set.
In their sole previous meeting, the South African was able to come from a set down to beat Michelsen on the grass courts of Mallorca in 2023 and Lloyd Harris enjoyed a huge edge in the serving numbers on the day.
He has held 89% of the service games played on the grass this season before entering the Wimbledon Qualifiers and Harris dropped just a single set in three wins there.
Much of this match is expected to be founded on the serving stats of the two players and the feeling is that we could see at least four sets shared out with tie-breakers potentially key. With that in mind, there is a feeling that Lloyd Harris and Alex Michelsen can combine to cover this number of total games line and that is the angle to approach.
The lower Ranked player is favoured to win, which looks about right, but Alex Michelsen can play his part in dragging this First Round match out.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris-Alex Michelsen Over 40.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Bublik - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
No comments:
Post a Comment