This thread should have been out earlier, but the rain on Day 6 means the matches have yet to get going.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard-Emil Ruusuvuori over 43.5 games: Getting to the second week of a Grand Slam is a big achievement for any player, even the very best in the business. For those further down the World Rankings, the points achieved can be a huge boost in their bid to play at other big events throughout the year, while there is little doubt that a strong Grand Slam run will build some confidence.
It is confidence that Emil Ruusuvuori will appreciate having had a tough year on the Tour with his World Ranking plummeting to Number 87. The reality is that Ruusuvuori has not really fulfilled the potential that many felt he had with his career best World Ranking still 'only' being World Number 37, but the drop off is alarming and that has made the two wins produced this week important for him.
Being unseeded means having to play tough competition right from the off in any Grand Slam event and Emil Ruusuvuori beat the World Number 11 Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Second Round. That win has opened up the draw in this section of the bottom half of the Men's tournament, but the Finn has to back it up against a new name on the Tour.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is one of a number of new names for French tennis fans to get behind with the old guard moving either into retirement or on the brink of retirement. Strong Challenger level performances have helped Mpetshi Perricard quietly move into the top 60 of the World Rankings and he won a clay court title at the main ATP level in the build up to the French Open.
He was actually Ranked outside of the top 100 when winning the title in Lyon, but the early loss at the French Open would have still stung. It also meant Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard was not Ranked high enough at the Wimbledon cut off to earn direct entry into the Wimbledon main draw and he has played three Qualifiers last week.
The Frenchman won two of those before losing to a compatriot in the Third Qualifying Round, but Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard has taken advantage of a Lucky Loser spot in the draw. A huge serve has been key to his successes at Wimbledon this past week and the upset of Sebastian Korda in the First Round has helped Mpetshi Perricard build confidence to take into the rest of the tournament.
He is the favourite in this Third Round match, but this is expected to be a tight match with both players capable servers, but lacking some real bite when it comes to the return. On the grass that is really expected to show up and this match should fly over the total games line as long as we see four sets, which has to be in play with tie-breakers likely needed in at least two of the first three sets.
Even in the slightly cooler, wetter conditions around Wimbledon this weekend, both Emil Ruusuvuori and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard have the serving qualities to contain what has been limited return games. There is plenty on the line for both players with an opportunity to play in the second week at this Grand Slam, and it could be a titanic battle to decide which of the two is playing on Monday in the Fourth Round.
Arthur Fils - 1.5 sets v Roman Safiullon: One really strong tournament, especially at Grand Slam level, can skew a World Ranking mark and that is the case for Roman Safiullon in his return to Wimbledon.
He might enter the tournament as the World Number 44, but it has been an inconsistent twelve months since reaching the Quarter Final here at Wimbledon. That means that despite the run to the Third Round in 2024, Roman Safiullon's live Ranking is actually down at Number 67 and he will be under some pressure to avoid that slippage during this tournament.
Most players won't really think about the live Ranking and Roman Safiullon clearly has enjoyed playing at Wimbledon over the last two tournaments. He has beaten one Seed, which has opened up this section of the draw, and there is a real opportunity in front of Safiullon.
The Third Round match is against another of the up and coming young French players and one with a lot of expectation being carried on his shoulders. Arthur Fils has flashed plenty of his talent, but he is just 20 years old and so there is still the matter of clearing up some of the inconsistencies in his tennis.
Unlike his opponent, Arthur Fils is picking up Ranking points already with his run to the Third Round and the aim for the Frenchman has to be securing a Seed for the US Open and then building on the 2024 season. He did reach a career best World Ranking in May, but a poor showing at Roland Garros prevented Arthur Fils from earning a Seed at Wimbledon.
Despite that, his win over Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round will have given the youngster a lot of belief in his game and that is after reaching the Quarter Final in Halle.
Arthur Fils is capable of serving very well and that is even more impactful on the grass, while this match up may be one he enjoys having beaten Roman Safiullon twice already on the Tour. On both occasions it was Safiullon Ranked the higher of the two, but that narrative has changed ahead of this Third Round match and the match up numbers are certainly very much in favour of the Frenchman.
Despite being the lower Ranked player in those two previous matches, Arthur Fils has been able to hold 94% of his service games compared with just 70% for Roman Safiullon. Prior to Wimbledon, Roman Safiullon had been struggling for confidence and the feeling is that he might still be a touch fragile against an opponent who has given him problems in the past.
Nothing is ever that easy on the grass courts, but Arthur Fils should have the abilities to secure a place in the Fourth Round in SW19 with a victory in three or four sets on Day 6 at The Championships.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Alexei Popyrin: The seven time Wimbledon Champion was a doubt to even arrive at the tournament in the build up to the third Grand Slam of the season. And in the Second Round, Novak Djokovic was given a lot more food for thought than anticipated by a young British player who has had limited experience on the ATP Tour.
Ultimately Novak Djokovic was able to move through to the Third Round and he will not be overly concerned about dropping a set to Jacob Fearnley. The match was perhaps tighter than expected, but Djokovic found the right tennis at the right times to earn a spot in the Third Round and the familiarity of the opponent across the net will certainly help Djokovic.
Alexei Popyrin has not had things all his own way at Wimbledon over the last week, but he found a way to eliminate a Seed in the Second Round.
However, the Australian will be well aware that a win over Tomas Martin Etcheverry is one thing and beating Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon is another all together.
He has to take some confidence from the way he was able to challenge Novak Djokovic at another Grand Slam where he has felt very comfortable. Back in the opening month of the season, Alexei Popyrin won a set against Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open, although it was the Serb who was relatively comfortable on his way past a home hope.
The danger that Alexei Popyrin brings to the grass courts is clear from the fact that he has taken sets from Andy Murray and Tommy Paul over the last month on this surface. He was beaten in both though and Novak Djokovic is perhaps a little under-rated in this one when it comes to the handicap mark set.
Even if he was to drop a set, Novak Djokovic has been serving well enough to keep Alexei Popyrin under pressure and we know how strong a return player that the former World Number 1 can be.
Dealing with the Alexei Popyrin serve will be tough, but Novak Djokovic has broken in 20% of return games played against this opponent and the Second Round win might just have made sure Djokovic has refocused. He would not have known much about his last opponent, but that is not the case in this Third Round match and Novak Djokovic can just remind the rest of the draw that he is here to win and not simply to compete.
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: For all of her obvious qualities and the fact she has won five Grand Slam titles, there is a vulnerability about World Number 1 and top Seed Iga Swiatek when it comes to playing on the grass courts.
Her best performance at Wimbledon is reaching the Quarter Final twelve months ago, but Iga Swiatek does not carry nearly the same aura as she does when entering a clay court.
She will be favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal when the Paris Games are played at Roland Garros, but Iga Swiatek will be looking to prove herself on the grass at Wimbledon. A decision was made to play no warm up tournaments ahead of the third Grand Slam of the season, but Iga Swiatek has not allowed that to affect her level and two solid wins over Sofia Kenin and Petra Martic has to give her confidence.
This Third Round match may be another step up in level of opponent, especially as Yulia Putintseva has won all seven matches played on the grass courts in 2024. Any player who has secured a title on the surface will have confidence and Yulia Putintseva has always been a solid player on the grass.
However, it should be noted that none of the seven wins have been against an opponent Ranked inside the top 35 and so facing the World Number 1 will feel like a real step up in class.
The pressure will feel that much more when Yulia Putintseva remembers that she has lost all four previous Tour matches against Iga Swiatek and struggled to be very competitive in any of those.
Playing on the grass will help, but Putintseva has failed to win a set against the World Number 1 and she has only won 52% of the service points played. This likely means being under pressure almost all of the time and it can be one that breaks a player emotionally, while there may not be the belief for the underdog to find a way to turn things around against one of the strongest frontrunners on the WTA Tour.
Twelve months ago, Iga Swiatek did show she can be very good on the grass and can have too much for opponents to cope with. It has been tougher in 2024, but the two wins under the belt will just give the top Seed a chance to build on the performances produced so far and Swiatek may end up pulling clear for the win.
MY PICKS: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard-Emil Ruusuvuori Over 43.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arthur Fils - 1.5 Sets @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 14-8, + 8.44 Units (44 Units Staked, + 19.18% Yield)
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