We have gotten the Men's Final that most would have hoped for when the Wimbledon tournament began, but the unexpected Ladies Final is first up this weekend.
Once again it has been a wide open event and two players with Grand Slam Final experience will be meeting, even if picking both Finalists would have been a challenge beyond the vast majority of fans.
Going back to my Day 1 Picks, the players in the outright market that were highlighted outside of the obvious favourites included Lorenzo Musetti at 100-1 and Jasmine Paolini at 66-1.
While the Italian men's challenger came up short, those who did back the latter will be in a very strong position come Saturday.
Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: The last time these two players met on the Tour, Barbora Krejcikova was the World Number 128 and Jasmine Paolini was the World Number 156. That match was in the First Qualifying Round at the 2018 Australian Open, but suffice to say this is a much bigger stage for the two players to be competing on in 2024.
When they play one another on Saturday in the Wimbledon Final, both players are guaranteed to be in the top 14 of the World Rankings when the new numbers are released on Monday. It is Jasmine Paolini, the new World Number 5, who is the higher Ranked, but Barbora Krejcikova has been given the edge in the Final by those putting the odds together.
You cannot argue with that as the two surprising former French Open Finalists meet- Barbora Krejcikova was able to win the title when reaching the Final, while Jasmine Paolini came up a little short against Iga Swiatek last month, but being a former Grand Slam Champion is certainly going to be a potential factor in favour of Krejcikova.
Winning the title would actually push Barbora Krejcikova back into the top 10 and she will certainly feel she has been playing strong tennis this week.
The tournament did start slowly and there were nerves early in the Semi Final, but the way the Czech player was able to turn things around against Elena Rybakina will serve her well. The match up in this one is very different with Jasmine Paolini not having the kind of power that the former Wimbledon Champion possesses, and certainly a stronger defender, but beating a former Champion will certainly make Barbora Krejcikova play with some confidence.
Both players are happy to play in the Ladies Doubles at Grand Slam level and so there is a feeling that this is going to be a fun match to watch.
A key for Barbora Krejcikova is to serve well and try and keep Jasmine Paolini under pressure, although the Italian has continued to play with the confidence and character to never be out of a match.
She has turned around some tough moments throughout this Wimbledon run and has become the first women's player to reach both the French Open and Wimbledon Final in the same season since Serena Williams eight years ago. Any time you are in a conversation with Williams, you know you are doing something right and Jasmine Paolini has shown her fortitude in her wins over Madison Keys and Donna Vekic when things looked to have moved beyond her.
In saying that, Paolini has perhaps benefited from both of those players picking up injuries during the match which changed the momentum of the contest. That was certainly the case against Madison Keys who led 5-2 in the deciding set and had two opportunities to serve out the match.
Jasmine Paolini is a fighter though and her movement around the court will extract errors- the serve can be a vulnerability and it is a Final that could really come down to the Barbora Krejcikova racquet and how much control she has on her unforced error count.
Keeping those as contained as possible is key and it does feel like the edge is with the former French Open Champion over the 2024 Finalist.
There are likely to be a number of breaks of serve and this might be the third Wimbledon Ladies Final in four years that needs a deciding set. The narrow edge has to be with Barbora Krejcikova who may be able to get through a couple of service games with a bit more ease and that may just build enough pressure on Jasmine Paolini to see the Italian come up slightly short in a second Grand Slam Final in a row.
MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 20-21, - 7.18 Units (82 Units Staked, - 8.76% Yield)
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