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Thursday, 11 July 2024

Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2024 (Friday 12th July)

With the Ladies Final set for Saturday, attention will turn to the Men's Semi Final matches on Day 12 of Wimbledon.

Three of the top five players are involved, while Lorenzo Musetti is looking to really make a massive statement by reaching his first Grand Slam Final in what has been a very good month of tennis for him.

He is the surprise of the Men's tournament, but Musetti is hoping to join his compatriot Matteo Berrettini in reaching a Wimbledon Final, while the bigger task is to try and become the second Italian to win a Grand Slam this season after Jannik Sinner was able to do that in Australia.

Beating Novak Djokovic is still the ultimate challenge in a best of five set format, while the other Semi Final between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev is a repeat of a Semi Final played at Wimbledon last year.


Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Italian Tennis has been experiencing a real boost over the last few years with some big names on the ATP Tour. Jasmine Paolini is making an impact on the WTA Tour and now Lorenzo Musetti is once again sharing some of the limelight of Jannik Sinner by returning to the top 20 in the World Rankings and gearing up for his first Grand Slam Semi Final.

He came through a battle in the Quarter Final against Taylor Fritz, but that win has continued what has been a fine month of grass court tennis.

Lorenzo Musetti is still only 22 years old and so it is perhaps no surprise that there has been a slight stagnation to the development on the Tour. Thirteen months ago he reached a career high World Ranking, but it has not been the easiest year on the Tour and that is why he had slipped out of the top 20.

Poor Grand Slam results have not helped, but Musetti has taken the form from reaching the Queen's Club Final and brought that with him on the short journey to Wimbledon. Overall the performances have been impressive, but the Italian has also had to show his battling qualities with a couple of five set wins and also being able to recover when behind.

All of that is likely going to be tested by Novak Djokovic who will be keenly listening out for boos instead of Muus from the Centre Court crowd.

The seven time Wimbledon Championc continues to feel that crowds are not offering the respect that he deserves, although there remains a real feeling that Novak Djokovic is just trying to fuel his motivation even further. Being given a Bye to the Quarter Final might feel like a bonus for Djokovic, who had come into the Wimbledon tournament with fitness doubts, and having three full days of recovery between matches within a Grand Slam tournament is a huge boost for his chances of matching Roger Federer's eight wins in SW19.

Things have not gone completely his way at Wimbledon, but Novak Djokovic's dominant win over Holger Rune in the Fourth Round suggests he is rounding into form. No one is going to question the grass court pedigree of the former World Number 1 and Novak Djokovic deserves to be a relatively strong favourite in this Semi Final.

However, the Serb is not going to take anything for granted against a player who has twice been one set away from beating him at a Grand Slam.

Both of those matches were at Roland Garros in 2021, when Lorenzo Musetti really announced himself to a wider audience while leading Novak Djokovic 2-0, and earlier this year when Musetti lost the first set, but won two in a row in the Third Round.

Novak Djokovic was able to turn both matches around and he will also note that those were played on clay, the favoured surface of Lorenzo Musetti.

Two previous hard court matches have both ended in favour of Djokovic with some relative comfort attached and even the slightly slower grass court of Centre Court is unlikely to change things too much. It is the first time Lorenzo Musetti will be playing on the main court of Wimbledon, although handling the occasion is something he has the temperament to do.

The bigger question is having the tennis to beat Novak Djokovic and that seems unlikely right now, even after an impressive win over Taylor Fritz in the Quarter Final.

There is just so much more solidness about Novak Djokovic's all around game compared with Fritz and that is likely to show up. The favourite has the better serving consisteny and Novak Djokovic is just as capable of exerting returning pressures like Lorenzo Musetti.

In their previous matches, there has been a clear edge in favour of Novak Djokovic when it comes to holding serve and he may just wear down the younger player and cover what is a big handicap mark all things considered.


Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: The grass courts have frustrated Daniil Medvedev at times and he is still mostly in love with the hard courts, but his recent runs at Wimbledon may just have shown the World Number 5 how capable he is on this surface.

In reality Daniil Medvedev is a pretty solid player on all surfaces and it would be a real shame for him and his brand of tennis if he is not able to add to the US Open he won in 2021.

There is no doubt that he has had his chances- Daniil Medvedev should have won the very next Grand Slam at the Australian Open- and a consistent performer on the Tour has now reached the Semi Final in four of the last five Slams played. He was leading by two sets again in the Final at the Australian Open earlier this year before coming up short and so Daniil Medvedev may still feel he has something to prove.

That defeat came against Jannik Sinner, but it was Medvedev who beat the Italian in the Quarter Final here, although the challenges do not get any easier.

Next up is the defending Champion and Carlos Alcaraz continues to show that he can battle through difficult moments on his way to his successes. Winning the French Open-Wimbledon double has proven to be a huge challenge throughout the years, but Carlos Alcaraz is playing with a real determination and will to win and this is a match up that will not concern him.

It has not been the most convincing of runs and the Spaniard has dropped one set in each of his last two wins, while needing to come through in five sets in the Third Round against Frances Tiafoe. The level did increase as he overwhelmed Queen's Champion Tommy Paul in the Quarter Final after a slow start and that kind of performance will give Carlos Alcaraz full belief that he can go on and win the title here again.

The serve is not working quite as well as it was twelve months ago and that will need to be improved if Carlos Alcaraz is going to defend his title. Each of his last three opponents have been able to fashion at least ten Break Points and giving up that many chances is always going to be dangerous, even if Carlos Alcaraz has the returning ability to make up for that.

He will know that a poor serving day could lead to problems, as it did when losing to Danill Medvedev at the US Open last year as the defending Champion.

In saying that, it is a match that has been the exception in recent meetings between Medvedev and Alcaraz and that gives the latter a significant mental edge.

Last year it was Carlos Alcaraz who beat Daniil Medvedev in pretty routine fashion in the Wimbledon Semi Final and he has also won two matches against this opponent since the US Open defeat. This means Alcaraz has won four of the last five against Daniil Medvedev and so the onus really is on the underdog to change things around.

He put in a lot to beat Jannik Sinner in the Quarter Final, although fatigue is not expected to be an issue with that match being played on Tuesday and this Semi Final taking place on a Friday.

Back in 2021, Daniil Medvedev did beat Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon in a big straight sets victory, but things have changed between the players since then. On that day, Medvedev broke the Alcaraz serve seven times, but he has managed to do that just six times combined in the next five matches played and this feels like a match that is very much going to be played on the Alcaraz racquet.

There is room for improvement for Carlos Alcaraz, but the comfort within this match up should help in encouraging that and he can win and cover over the course of this contest.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 19-20, - 6.62 Units (78 Units Staked, - 8.49% Yield)

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