It’s been a couple of busy days so selections are out later than I would have hoped, although still way before matches are due out on court.
I will update the Wimbledon totals in the Day 8 thread.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: So much has changed for the World Number 7 since she last played Madison Keys in Dubai in February 2023.
Jasmine Paolini was able to win just two games in a comfortable defeat to Madison Keys, but the Italian was the World Number 64 on that occasion and she had to Qualify for the main draw.
Twelve months later, Jasmine Paolini was winning the title in Dubai to show that she is much more than a clay court player and the improvements of the last year have been clear to see. Even playing on the grass, which has been unfamiliar to Paolini, has posed little problems thanks to the confidence in her own tennis.
She had a run to the Eastbourne Semi Final in the week prior to the third Grand Slam of the season beginning and Jasmine Paolini, the French Open Runner Up, is now playing in the second week at Wimbledon too. Three wins in SW19 will have really boosted Jasmine Paolini and she is playing in the weaker half of the Ladies draw which will mean confidence in reaching back to back Grand Slam Finals.
Jasmine Paolini has been playing well and her ability to get returns into play and then the speed around the court have made her very difficult to beat.
However, Madison Keys poses the biggest threat to the Italian so far in the tournament and Keys has won all three matches here without dropping a set.
The styles are very different- Jasmine Paolini will work hard for her points and use defence and speed to turn things around, while Madison Keys has a big serve and booming groundstrokes. The key, pardon the pun, for the American is going to be avoiding leaking too many Unforced Errors as she perhaps feels she has to go for the lines to break through the Paolini defences, but serving well is also important for Madison Keys to allow her to play first-strike tennis.
The Keys second serve can sometimes be vulnerable and that is what Jasmine Paolini will look to exploit, but the former has beaten one Italian player already this past week and that should stand her in good stead as to what to expect from this Fourth Round opponent.
Make no mistake, Jasmine Paolini is playing at a much higher level than Martina Trevisan, but Madison Keys will know what is needed to win this kind of match.
Nothing ever comes easy for the World Number 13 and Madison Keys can sometimes be guilty of putting too much pressure on herself and ultimately capitulating within a match. That is a concern against someone like Paolini who will always look to make an opponent play one more ball, but Madison Keys may just have the edge on the grass courts to work her way past the higher Ranked of the two players.
Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Emma Navarro: The bottom half of the Ladies draw might be the weaker of the two going into the Fourth Round, but this final Quarter looks incredibly tough.
Three American players are involved and three of the top 13 in the World Rankings are playing in this section just to reach the Semi Final.
Coco Gauff has looked every bit the kind of player that has been tipped up to reach the Wimbledon Final after Aryna Sabalenka withdrew on the eve of her own First Round match. Winning is one thing, but Coco Gauff has been winning in dominant fashion and that will have given her a lot of confidence as she chases a place in the Wimbledon Quarter Final for the first time.
There were moments in the Third Round when Gauff looked a little rattled by the home crowd who were firmly behind British player Sonay Kartal, but a strong second set underlined the status of the World Number 2.
Before that Third Round match, Coco Gauff admitted she had seen very little of her opponent but that is not going to be the case in the Fourth Round against the fast improving Emma Navarro.
Playing College Tennis before joining the Tour has been a very positive approach for a number of players on both the ATP and WTA Tour and Emma Navarro is the latest. She was the Collegiate Champion in 2021, while the improvement as a professional is underlined by the fact that Navarro was outside the top 50 of the World Rankings at Wimbledon in 2023, but is the World Number 17 this time around.
While she will not be thinking about a loss, Emma Navarro is going to be at a new career World Ranking mark at the end of the tournament even in a Fourth Round defeat and being Seeded at the US Open will be a big achievement. The 23 year old played well on the grass courts of Bad Homburg in preparation for Wimbledon when reaching the Semi Final, but Emma Navarro will know that this is a big test of her credentials.
She will not be intimidated having crushed a four time Grand Slam Champion Naomi Osaka in the Second Round and she avenged her Semi Final defeat to Diana Shnaider at Bad Homburg by beating the same opponent from a set behind in the Third Round.
Much like Coco Gauff, Emma Navarro will be very familiar with the tennis she is expecting to see and will be determined to be much stronger than when winning four games on the Auckland hard courts back in January against this opponent. She has improved from Number 31 in the World Rankings, but the key will be to find a way into the Coco Gauff serve and that is where the World Number 2 might have enough of an advantage.
The second serve was attacked relentlessly in the Third Round and Coco Gauff is capable of doing the same in this one, while the top Seed in the bottom half is serving very well.
With the crowd back behind her, Coco Gauff might just have a bit too much for Emma Navarro at this stage of their respective careers and that should see the higher Ranked American come through with a solid win.
MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
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