This has been a pretty busy week so this thread will only focus on the NFL Picks being made.
Hopefully it will be one where the Picks bounce back from the narrow deficit produced in Week 8.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Pick: Both of these teams have been used to playing international games in the NFL regular season, but it will be the first time either is playing in Germany.
The London games may not have been the most appealing on paper, but the German fans cannot have any complaints about seeing the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) and Miami Dolphins (6-2) face off with their high-powered Offensive units. They are two of four teams in the AFC who have won six games this season and who will be targeting the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and holding home court advantage through the post-season until the Super Bowl.
Games against one another could be key to that outcome with those potential tie-breaking wins to separate teams in the final standings.
That is still a long way away though and the Chiefs and Dolphins meet in a big game after differing Week 8 performances. The Miami Dolphins bounced back from a loss to beat the New England Patriots at home, while the Kansas City Chiefs were finally beaten by the Denver Broncos.
There are factors at play though in that defeat, factors which should not be having the same kind of impact in this Week 9 game. Patrick Mahomes was playing in Denver through an illness, but he is much better now and will be travelling with the Kansas City Chiefs expecting to have a much stronger performance all around.
Vic Fangio is doing a good job with the Dolphins Defensive unit, but it is still a work in progress even with a returning Jalen Ramsey to provide a boost for the Secondary. With a Bye Week coming up, the Dolphins will be hoping some key players return to make Fangio's life that much more comfortable as the Defensive Co-Ordinator, while it should be said that Miami have not played as well on this side of the ball when they have faced the stronger teams on the schedule.
The Chiefs certainly are one of those better teams and Patrick Mahomes is likely to be a lot better than what we saw from him in Denver.
Some are questioning whether the Kansas City Chiefs should have added a couple of bodies to the Receiving corps to help their Quarter Back, but Mahomes is a Quarter Back that will get the best out of the Receivers he does have. Travis Kelce is clearly the top option through the air, but the Chiefs have others stepping up and developing and they will believe they can move the ball with some consistency against this Dolphins team.
It is the Offense that has really been making the headlines for the Dolphins and they will need them to be at their best if they are going to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately the team have yet to get their best foot forward Offensively when facing the likes of the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles and it could be argued that the Kansas City Chiefs have the best Defensive unit of the three.
Over the last couple of weeks, Miami's Offensive Line have really been banged up and that has slowed down the rushing attack, one that had been impressing earlier in the season. Losing De'Von Achane has been a big blow considering the Home Run threat he brings with every touch, and Raheem Mostert is not fully healthy right now either.
Along with the Offensive Line issues it feels like Miami may not be able to take advantage of some of the problems that Kansas City have had in stopping the run. Being behind the chains would be very tough for Tua Tagovailoa, even if he has been playing at a high level this season, while he is not going to be given a lot of time for routes to be run down the field thanks to the strong Chiefs pass rush.
Tyreek Hill is facing his old team for the first time and is likely going to be pumped up and able to make some big plays, but consistent success for Miami may be tough to come by as they perhaps struggle against yet another of the better teams in the NFL.
Kansas City are arriving in Germany much later in the week than the Miami Dolphins, but the feeling is that the Chiefs bounce back from a poor loss last week. They are still firmly in control of the AFC West so it is not a loss that will linger and Patrick Mahomes is likely going to put in a much stronger performance all around which will lead to a win for the Chiefs.
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Two teams that will have Super Bowl ambitions meet in a non-Conference game in Week 9 of the NFL season.
Both the Seattle Seahawks (5-2) and Baltimore Ravens (6-2) are leading their respective Divisions in the NFC West and AFC North and both won in Week 8 to keep some positive momentum behind them. Those wins did not come in completely convincing fashion, but it is important to build confidence at this time of the season and look to peak in January and February.
Focus could be the biggest opponent for the Ravens in Week 9 as they will follow this game with back to back Divisional games against the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. Those are hugely important games for the Ravens in looking to achieve their overall goals, while winning a non-Conference game is always fun, but perhaps not so important in the grand scheme.
The fact is that the Ravens are also playing a Seattle Defensive unit that is much improved from last season and arguably more responsible for their winning record than Geno Smith and the Offense. Adding Leonard Williams to the mix in a trade from the New York Giants looks to be a big move for the Seahawks and he is expected to play on Sunday.
Clogging up the Defensive Line, Leonard Williams is expected to be an immediate contributor for a Seattle team that have played the run well without him. Now they could be even stronger up front with an immediate test of that theory against the Baltimore Ravens, a team that have a dual-threat Quarter Back and whose DNA is to run the ball first and foremost.
Closing down Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards completely is a next to impossible task, but the Seahawks Defensive Line have to believe they can limit the damage that is done on the ground. They did allow the Browns to put up 155 yards on the ground last week, but the Seahawks did not allow any of the Running Backs to really get loose and with the addition of Williams, it could be even tougher to churn out big gains.
Reducing the running game will certainly give the Seahawks the edge on this side of the ball with the Secondary continuing to play well. Lamar Jackson and his Receivers are finding a rhythm, but you would expect the Seattle Defensive Backs to have an edge, while Seattle also generate enough of a pass rush to rattle Jackson and force him out of the pocket.
Containing the Quarter Back when he gets loose will be important, and this Seattle Defensive unit looks like one that can at least restrict the Ravens better than the Detroit Lions did in the last game in this Stadium and that offers the visitors a chance of the upset.
Playing on the road in the early Eastern Time Zone is not ideal for a West Coast team like the Seattle Seahawks, but they have won in New York against the Giants and also on the road against Detroit. A narrow defeat in Cincinnati has also been played out, although there is enough to suggest the Seahawks can remain competitive as long as Geno Smith and the Offensive unit avoid some of the mistakes that almost cost them against the Browns last week.
Any mistakes will be difficult to overcome and this Baltimore Defensive unit have been operating at a high level.
However, in recent games, it has been possible to run the ball against the Ravens Defensive Line and Seattle are capable of establishing the run. It will be important to ease the pressure on Smith and will also mean keeping control of the clock and making sure the Seattle Defense are getting plenty of rest between chasing after Lamar Jackson.
It will be tough to win the game if relying on Geno Smith having to throw into this dangerous Baltimore Secondary- while he is backed up by good looking Receivers, the Seahawks Offensive Line could struggle to keep the Ravens pass rush from out of the backfield and that pressure could see Smith rushed into throwing when he should not be.
Interceptions have been an issue for Geno Smith and Baltimore love turning the ball over, but a clean game will give Seattle a chance to win and that has to be the sole focus for the visiting team.
With a potentially distracted Baltimore team, Seattle can keep this one competitive with a strong day in the trenches on both sides of the ball. They are getting enough points, although it does mean asking Geno Smith to not push the boat out and ultimately make mistakes that could end up costing the Seahawks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans Pick: After losses in Week 8, both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) and Houston Texans (3-4) are a game under 0.500. The difference is that the Buccaneers are playing in a weak looking NFC South Division and remain in touch with the leaders, while the Houston Texans are trailing the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South, a team that has won six of eight games played.
This may be a non-Conference game, but both teams should be motivated to move out of a losing record position, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a little more time to prepare having been in Thursday Night Football action in Week 8. The Buccaneers have lost three in a row though and so confidence is an issue, while a Houston team that has been overachieving having dropped two of three themselves.
A rookie Quarter Back has been playing very well, but the Texans were beaten by the Carolina Panthers, and their own rookie Quarter Back, which will have been a disappointment.
CJ Stroud will try and bounce back against a tough Buccaneers Defensive unit that have kept the team competitive, even through a losing run. They have given the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a chance to win games, and there is a feeling that they can at least give the rookie leading the Houston Offense something to think about.
Running the ball is not going to feel like much of a positive option for the Texans, but CJ Stroud is going to be throwing into a young Secondary which has definitely bent, if not broken. His recent throwing outings have not been the most productive and there is going to be a concern that the rookie has hit his wall a little earlier in the season, although Stroud himself is looking to show that there is still more to come from him.
Importantly, CJ Stroud has been able to look after the ball when he has taken to the air, while the Houston Offensive Line should be able to offer him enough time to attack a Secondary allowing almost 300 passing yards per game in their three game losing run.
It has increased the pressure on Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Offensive unit and we are some way down the line from when it looked like the move from Tom Brady to Mayfield would be a comfortable one for the Buccaneers. Now there has been a real problem getting the run game going and it has meant Baker Mayfield is being forced to throw from third and long spots.
Much like his opposite number, Baker Mayfield is going to be throwing into a struggling Secondary and he does have some veteran experience at the Receiver positions who can make plays. The difference for the two Quarter Backs in this game is that CJ Stroud could be afforded a bit more time when trying to pick up longer Third Downs and Baker Mayfield may have to make plays under pressure behind this Tampa Bay Offensive Line.
That can make all the difference and Mayfield may end up making a mistake or two that proves to be costly for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Texans have not been able to create the turnovers in recent games, but this may prove to be an opportunity for them and they can bounce back from the poor loss to the Carolina Panthers.
Nothing has come easy for either team, but the Houston Texans may just have the pass rush pressure to rattle Baker Mayfield a bit more than the other way around, and that can lead to a home win for the AFC team.
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers Pick: They would have been hoping Anthony Richardson, a top four Draft choice, would be able to lead the Indianapolis Colts (3-5) forward in what is not the most testing of Divisions. However, the concern that Richardson's style may leave him vulnerable to injury in the NFL has unfortunately come true for the Colts and he is out for the season.
Having a veteran back up like Gardner Minshew should have been a positive, but mistakes have been made and you can see why the Quarter Back has struggled to hold down a permanent starter role. Three losses in a row are one thing, but the Colts can point to those mistakes as being fatal having lost by a single point to the Cleveland Browns in between disappointing defeats to Jacksonville and New Orleans.
This week the Colts are trying to bounce back against the Carolina Panthers (1-6) who won for the first time in the Bryce Young era when seeing off fellow rookie CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans. A Bye Week has helped the Panthers clear up some of the injuries that have contributed to six straight defeats to open the season, but backing that victory up is not going to be easy.
A short week is coming up for the Carolina Panthers who are scheduled to play on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and that is a potential distraction. They are also going to be facing a tough Indianapolis Colts Defensive unit that have been able to control the line of scrimmage and who have the ability to at least contain the threat on the ground.
It is important to do that in this one so the Colts can force Bryce Young to beat them through the air, although there are one or two holes in the Secondary which can be exposed. The key for Indianapolis will be to try and get their pass rush going against this Carolina Offensive Line and see if they can rush Young into a mistake or two, especially with their Secondary being able to make plays Intercepting passes in recent games.
Gardner Minshew is difficult to trust, but it may pay for the Quarter Back that he can likely lean on Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor who should be able to establish the run.
Being in front of the chains is only good news for the veteran and it is also good news for the Offensive Line, which has not protected Minshew as well as they would have liked. However, they are facing a Panthers pass rush which has not been able to find the Quarter Back consistently, and being in front of the chains should mean Gardner Minshew is able to get the ball out of his hands quickly.
Backing Indianapolis to win on the road is not a great position to be in- it is worse backing them as the road favourite!
However, the Colts have won two of the three wins on the board outside of their own Stadium and the Panthers might not be as focused having finally won a game and now having to play on Thursday Night Football. This feels much more important for the Indianapolis Colts if they have any remaining ambitions to challenge the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Division and they can be backed to win.
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Revenge will have been on the mind of the Buffalo Bills (5-3) as soon as they were beaten in the 2022 NFL PlayOffs and Week 10 would have long been circled. Having a few extra days to prepare can only be a good thing for the Buffalo Bills after beating Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football and they will be ready to perform in a primetime slot.
Before last week, the Buffalo Bills might have been plenty confident in earning a win over the Cincinnati Bengals (4-3) who have made a slow start to the season and sit in the basement of the AFC North.
However, Joe Burrow and the team looked so much healthier in their strong win on the road over the San Francisco 49ers and they won't be lacking any focus after already dropping three games. Next up is the Houston Texans, so the Cincinnati Bengals won't be looking past Buffalo, while the Bengals also know putting a marker down against potential PlayOff rivals is plenty important.
The Bengals will believe they can keep the Offensive rhythm going after a strong performance in San Francisco and that is mainly down to the injuries that the Bills have suffered on this side of the ball. Rasul Douglas will help the Secondary having arrived in a trade from the Green Bay Packers, but he will take some time to learn what is expected from him and Joe Burrow and the Bengals should have success.
Joe Mixon may not make the same kind of runs that he did a few years ago, but he will pound the rock and open up the passing game for Burrow.
This will also ensure the Offensive Line is giving Joe Burrow time to find his big-play Receivers and Cincinnati will be expecting to move the ball and score plenty of points.
The Buffalo Bills will think the same with Josh Allen and the strong Offensive unit likely to enjoy plenty of success both on the ground and through the air. The Bills have not leaned on James Cook as much as some though they might this season, but he has an opportunity to have a strong game against this Cincinnati Defensive Line, while the Secondary have allowed big plays to be made against them.
Closing Josh Allen will be tough if he is completely healthy, but there is a feeling that Allen is trying to battle through to the Bye Week where he will be able to rest up.
Josh Allen is well protected by the Offensive Line and so should find time to make plays down the field, and this has the makings of a very good Sunday Night Football game.
That PlayOff loss in January will not be far from the mind, but the Cincinnati Bengals looked strong last week and they may have the edge on the Defensive side of the ball in this one. Both teams are expected to move the ball up and down the field, but a bit more balance can be found by the Bengals between the run and the pass and that may end up being the main factor in the outcome of the Week 10 clash.
Sharp money looks to be behind the home team and that looks the path to follow in a big AFC encounter.
MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
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